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Estonian Cargo ship sinks off Odessa after explosion, crew members missing

148 points by 2-718-281-828 5y ago

optimalsolver 5y ago
Probably a fuel leak somewhere. And we should stick to that.
- altdataseller 5y ago
  That would be one of the biggest coincidences if true.
- PartiallyTyped 5y ago
  > Ilves said the vessel might have struck a mine. From the article.
  - liqu0rice 5y ago
    Don't know if that's the ship [1], but it does look like there are cargo ships that are being shot at. [1] https://youtu.be/x22Kg4pCXD4 https://youtu.be/x22Kg4pCXD4
- c7DJTLrn 5y ago
  Two bullets to the back of the head while jumping from a ten story building. Thank you for the enlightenment Vlad.
- hungryforcodes 5y ago
  Upvoted, because at least I saw it was a joke...
- SotCodeLaureate 5y ago
  I don't know, I live right next to where this was happening, what I've heard seemed like artillery fire (not an expert though, but I probable will soon be).
- theshrike79 5y ago
  Maybe the ship accidentally fell from a balcony? :D
bertil 5y ago
That’s dangerously close to attacking a Nato country…
- MattGaiser 5y ago
  I am curious whether it is deliberate to test what happens.
  - bpodgursky 5y ago
    Russia seems to have run out of precision-guided munitions on the first day of the war, so I personally doubt it.
    - fluidcruft 5y ago
      Is that true that they've run out of them or have they just shifted to not using them?
      - Mikeb85 5y ago
        Maybe but it seems more like they're embarrassed by their lack of progress so are just shelling civilian areas to try force a surrender...
      - bpodgursky 5y ago
        It seems like if they could have taken out Ukraine's remaining TB2 drones, they would have.
- throwaway4good 5y ago
  From the article: "Ilves said the vessel might have struck a mine." My guess is that those mines were put out by Ukraine military to fend off the invasion, but the article doesn't say.
  - okl 5y ago
    Previously there were reports that the Russians forced the ship to cover them as "human shield": https://www.jpost.com/international/article-699109 https://www.jpost.com/international/article-699109
mooreds 5y ago
Here's a tweet adding some context: https://twitter.com/PeterZeihan/status/1499425411717079048 https://twitter.com/PeterZeihan/status/1499425411717079048 tl;dr: this is going to affect insurance availability, which will in turn affect what can be exported from Russian ports in the Black Sea.
- rectang 5y ago
  If true, this effect is underappreciated while everybody's focusing on whether it's an act with implications for NATO. According to that commentator it could impact 1.5 million barrels/day of Russian oil, since now only Russian state-owned vessels would be able to ship it.
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SotCodeLaureate 5y ago
Here is the latest local news on this (in Russian, this is russian-language news site in Odessa): https://dumskaya.net/news/v-chernom-more-vblizi-odessy-spasli-ekipazh-inos-160680/ https://dumskaya.net/news/v-chernom-more-vblizi-odessy-spasl... Fortunately all 6 crew members seems to be safe (4 of them are Russians IIRC).
- mysecretaccount 5y ago
  That is a relief!
extant_lifeform 5y ago
Is this an Article 5 breach?
- throwaway4good 5y ago
  No.
- xeromal 5y ago
  They ran into a sea mine. It's an unfortunate accident.
- fulafel 5y ago
  Breach of NATO article 5 would be if a NATO country or countries refused to assist after NATO members agreed that a collective response should be invoked after an armed attack on a NATO member.
belter 5y ago
This was the HELT: https://www.fleetmon.com/vessels/helt_8402589_13482004/ https://www.fleetmon.com/vessels/helt_8402589_13482004/ https://www.fleetmon.com/maritime-news/2022/37489/estonian-freighter-captured-russian-navy-reportedl/ https://www.fleetmon.com/maritime-news/2022/37489/estonian-f... https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:3575/mmsi:354831000/imo:8402589/vessel:HELT https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:35...
- ThaDood 5y ago
  Fleetmon is a super cool site. Thanks for sharing.
  - belter 5y ago
    Their offers are a bit expensive but the live tracking is great: https://www.fleetmon.com/services/live-tracking/fleetmon-explorer/ https://www.fleetmon.com/services/live-tracking/fleetmon-exp...
- waffleiron 5y ago
  Be careful with AIS data right now, it's easy to spoof and has been spoofed on the black sea very recently. https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/hackers-deface-ais-data-of-putin-s-personal-yacht https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/hackers-deface-ai... edit: Website seems down on my side, archive: https://web.archive.org/web/20220303180437/https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/hackers-deface-ais-data-of-putin-s-personal-yacht https://web.archive.org/web/20220303180437/https://www.marit...
gojomo 5y ago
Remember the Helt! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Maine_(1889) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Maine_(1889)
baq 5y ago
My theory is that Russians forced the ship to go to Odessa to check if the passage is mined. They got their answer and it cost them nothing.
- unfocussed_mike 5y ago
  Another of those situations where I want to upvote your comment and downvote the world we live in, because it's terribly likely.
- DyslexicAtheist 5y ago
  was cracking my knuckles, caps-lock on active, ready go full "well-ac-tu-ally" ... then realized I can't make up my mind if "Hanlon's razor" holds up during time of war or if it's actually flipped on it's head. The chances of this being right is quite good, provided we ignore all the other common-sense things they missed but should have done if they weren't half arsing the whole thing?
arriu 5y ago
So this is what, the 4th ship in a week? https://twitter.com/NavyLookout/status/1497495556683411457 https://twitter.com/NavyLookout/status/1497495556683411457 https://twitter.com/NavyLookout/status/1497247647597486088 https://twitter.com/NavyLookout/status/1497247647597486088
ukraineally 5y ago
There's going to be a ton of due diligence on all these. Eventually it will be determined that Russia didn't intend to do it. It was some newb who shouldn't have shot. Won't matter. Eventually Article 5 will be triggered by Russia. That's the problem about the fog of war.

148 points by 2-718-281-828 5y ago

optimalsolver 5y ago

Probably a fuel leak somewhere. And we should stick to that.

altdataseller 5y ago
That would be one of the biggest coincidences if true.
PartiallyTyped 5y ago
> Ilves said the vessel might have struck a mine. From the article.
- liqu0rice 5y ago
  Don't know if that's the ship [1], but it does look like there are cargo ships that are being shot at. [1] https://youtu.be/x22Kg4pCXD4 https://youtu.be/x22Kg4pCXD4
c7DJTLrn 5y ago
Two bullets to the back of the head while jumping from a ten story building. Thank you for the enlightenment Vlad.
hungryforcodes 5y ago
Upvoted, because at least I saw it was a joke...
SotCodeLaureate 5y ago
I don't know, I live right next to where this was happening, what I've heard seemed like artillery fire (not an expert though, but I probable will soon be).
theshrike79 5y ago
Maybe the ship accidentally fell from a balcony? :D

bertil 5y ago

That’s dangerously close to attacking a Nato country…

MattGaiser 5y ago
I am curious whether it is deliberate to test what happens.
- bpodgursky 5y ago
  Russia seems to have run out of precision-guided munitions on the first day of the war, so I personally doubt it.
  - fluidcruft 5y ago
    Is that true that they've run out of them or have they just shifted to not using them?
    - Mikeb85 5y ago
      Maybe but it seems more like they're embarrassed by their lack of progress so are just shelling civilian areas to try force a surrender...
    - bpodgursky 5y ago
      It seems like if they could have taken out Ukraine's remaining TB2 drones, they would have.
throwaway4good 5y ago
From the article: "Ilves said the vessel might have struck a mine." My guess is that those mines were put out by Ukraine military to fend off the invasion, but the article doesn't say.
- okl 5y ago
  Previously there were reports that the Russians forced the ship to cover them as "human shield": https://www.jpost.com/international/article-699109 https://www.jpost.com/international/article-699109

mooreds 5y ago

Here's a tweet adding some context: https://twitter.com/PeterZeihan/status/1499425411717079048 https://twitter.com/PeterZeihan/status/1499425411717079048 tl;dr: this is going to affect insurance availability, which will in turn affect what can be exported from Russian ports in the Black Sea.

rectang 5y ago
If true, this effect is underappreciated while everybody's focusing on whether it's an act with implications for NATO. According to that commentator it could impact 1.5 million barrels/day of Russian oil, since now only Russian state-owned vessels would be able to ship it.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

SotCodeLaureate 5y ago

Here is the latest local news on this (in Russian, this is russian-language news site in Odessa): https://dumskaya.net/news/v-chernom-more-vblizi-odessy-spasli-ekipazh-inos-160680/ https://dumskaya.net/news/v-chernom-more-vblizi-odessy-spasl... Fortunately all 6 crew members seems to be safe (4 of them are Russians IIRC).

mysecretaccount 5y ago
That is a relief!

extant_lifeform 5y ago

Is this an Article 5 breach?

throwaway4good 5y ago
No.
xeromal 5y ago
They ran into a sea mine. It's an unfortunate accident.
fulafel 5y ago
Breach of NATO article 5 would be if a NATO country or countries refused to assist after NATO members agreed that a collective response should be invoked after an armed attack on a NATO member.

belter 5y ago

This was the HELT: https://www.fleetmon.com/vessels/helt_8402589_13482004/ https://www.fleetmon.com/vessels/helt_8402589_13482004/ https://www.fleetmon.com/maritime-news/2022/37489/estonian-freighter-captured-russian-navy-reportedl/ https://www.fleetmon.com/maritime-news/2022/37489/estonian-f... https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:3575/mmsi:354831000/imo:8402589/vessel:HELT https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:35...

ThaDood 5y ago
Fleetmon is a super cool site. Thanks for sharing.
- belter 5y ago
  Their offers are a bit expensive but the live tracking is great: https://www.fleetmon.com/services/live-tracking/fleetmon-explorer/ https://www.fleetmon.com/services/live-tracking/fleetmon-exp...
waffleiron 5y ago
Be careful with AIS data right now, it's easy to spoof and has been spoofed on the black sea very recently. https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/hackers-deface-ais-data-of-putin-s-personal-yacht https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/hackers-deface-ai... edit: Website seems down on my side, archive: https://web.archive.org/web/20220303180437/https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/hackers-deface-ais-data-of-putin-s-personal-yacht https://web.archive.org/web/20220303180437/https://www.marit...

gojomo 5y ago

Remember the Helt! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Maine_(1889) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Maine_(1889)

baq 5y ago

My theory is that Russians forced the ship to go to Odessa to check if the passage is mined. They got their answer and it cost them nothing.

unfocussed_mike 5y ago
Another of those situations where I want to upvote your comment and downvote the world we live in, because it's terribly likely.
DyslexicAtheist 5y ago
was cracking my knuckles, caps-lock on active, ready go full "well-ac-tu-ally" ... then realized I can't make up my mind if "Hanlon's razor" holds up during time of war or if it's actually flipped on it's head. The chances of this being right is quite good, provided we ignore all the other common-sense things they missed but should have done if they weren't half arsing the whole thing?

arriu 5y ago

So this is what, the 4th ship in a week? https://twitter.com/NavyLookout/status/1497495556683411457 https://twitter.com/NavyLookout/status/1497495556683411457 https://twitter.com/NavyLookout/status/1497247647597486088 https://twitter.com/NavyLookout/status/1497247647597486088

ukraineally 5y ago

There's going to be a ton of due diligence on all these. Eventually it will be determined that Russia didn't intend to do it. It was some newb who shouldn't have shot. Won't matter. Eventually Article 5 will be triggered by Russia. That's the problem about the fog of war.