8 ms·

When would be a good time for an invasion? Not when the snow thaws. Ok. How about when its ice cold? That option sounds even harder, though I guess the vehicles

When would be a good time for an invasion? Not when the snow thaws. Ok. How about when its ice cold? That option sounds even harder, though I guess the vehicles don't get stuck as badly. How about waiting until summer? That sounds like a more conventional military strategy, though I don't know enough Ukrainian geography to tell if its a sound option. Is there ever a "good" time for an invasion? If so, why did Putin jump the gun? If not, the current situation was inevitable in some form or other.

jacquesm 5y ago
In the heart of winter the whole country is a road, right now it is very narrow strips that are easily passable and it is getting worse by the day.
- rightbyte 5y ago
  That applies to UA armor too. Way harder to do hit and runs on road columns when you can't fall back to where ever but have to follow roads your self.
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    Defender advantage is substantial in situations like that. Moving targets are a lot harder than stationary ones. Ukraine armor is concentrated around the main cities instead of strung out in long vulnerable stationary lines.
  - throwaway6734 5y ago
    Ukraine also has javelins and other shoulder fired anti tank weapons
    - withinboredom 5y ago
      Anything you hit with those is pure luck. Source: experience. Edit: I was thinking of what we had in the Army, which was definitely not guided.
      - chrisseaton 5y ago
        > Anything you hit with those is pure luck. I've never seen a Javelin miss in my entire life. They've got like 5,000 recorded successful engagements. > Source: experience. Are you firing them before they've got a chance to get the sensor down to temperature?
      - Tuna-Fish 5y ago
        Er, no. Javelin is guided. They are videos of them doing some really amazing long-range shots.
        tome 5y ago
        For example https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sah9nbGQLFY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sah9nbGQLFY
        tablespoon 5y ago
        > For example https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sah9nbGQLFY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sah9nbGQLFY I guess you posted that for the compiled footage, but Lord do I hate voice synthesized narration. From my armchair, it seems totally practical to hit-and-run attack the convoy on foot using fire-and-forget Javelins from 1.5-2 miles away. If the terrain is impassible to vehicles, the attacker can just shoot from the top of a hill and run away down the other side (maybe without even being seen).
        tome 5y ago
        That's interesting. I didn't even notice that! I suppose I found the footage sufficiently compelling to distract me.
        cutemonster 5y ago
        Might the javelin fail to hit the tank, by accidentally homing in on one of the trucks next to it instead? From what I've read, they have too few javelins already
bcrosby95 5y ago
Part of the supposed strategy also involved hitting Ukraine when Europe is reliant upon Russian gas for heating. I was a bit surprised how late into winter they invaded given this goal.
- tempestn 5y ago
  My understanding is that Europe has several months of gas reserves. Even if Russia cut it off completely, the real pain would come next winter rather than immediately.
  - potamic 5y ago
    Where do you store that much gas?
    - dan_hawkins 5y ago
      Underground: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_gas_storage https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_gas_storage
      - potamic 5y ago
        This blows my mind! I knew you couldn't possibly store so much in tanks, but the idea to pump it into the ground is really insane.
    - tempestn 5y ago
      Pressurized tanks, I assume.
      - dan_hawkins 5y ago
        Not really: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_gas_storage https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_gas_storage
        5y ago
_3u10 5y ago
Travel across anything not paved during spring break up is near impossible. I don’t think it’s break up, I think it’s resistance, they are getting stalled in the cities. Ukraine has paved highways moving tanks isn’t an issue, except that the highways run through cities. The problem is fundamentally that for every soldier and civilian they kill they are creating 5 to 10 freedom fighters. The more people are killed the greater the resistance. The less likely they can hold the country without reprisals from the people. If they have to resort to barbarism to subdue the people then the sanctions will never end. Putin needs to establish a govt quickly that doesn’t have to resort to atrocities to govern. If he fails to do that he loses the greater overall war.
- munk-a 5y ago
  I don't know how accomplishable that really is at this point - it's looking like Russian troop cohesion is insanely low[1] and Putin may just need to withdraw forces to keep the domestic situation under wraps. I'm pretty sure if Putin started peace talks he'd be ousted at this point, so he just has to sorta pray that western powers don't stall out the annexation - otherwise I think he's pretty hooped domestically. 1. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/01/russia-low-morale-ukraine-invasion/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/01/russia-lo...
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - brimble 5y ago
    There's still plenty of room for them to convert this apparent impending loss into a partial success by gaining control of the territory they care most about, which is (likely) the South (to relieve Crimea's currently tenuous & expensive situation) and South East (to take full control of the fossil fuel resources there and bridge their territory over to Crimea), which also happen to be the areas they're having the most success in, judging by the various maps of territory they're semi-successfully occupying.
    - _3u10 5y ago
kevin_thibedeau 5y ago
Europe's dependence on Russian gas is a gun to their head that only exists in winter. It took some deliberation to get Germany to accept strong sanctions. That might not have happened a month ago.
zitterbewegung 5y ago
Weather: An invasion that begins in January or February would have the advantage of frozen ground to support the cross-country movement of a large mechanized force. It would also mean operating in conditions of freezing cold and limited visibility. January is usually the coldest and snowiest month of the year in Ukraine, averaging 8.5 hours of daylight during the month and increasing to 10 hours by February.8 This would put a premium on night fighting capabilities to keep an advance moving forward. Should fighting continue into March, mechanized forces would have to deal with the infamous Rasputitsa, or thaw. In October, Rasputitsa turns firm ground into mud. In March, the frozen steppes thaw, and the land again becomes at best a bog, and at worst a sea of mud. Winter weather is also less than optimal for reliable close air support operations. From: https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-possible-invasion-ukraine https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-possible-invasion-ukra...
- olliej 5y ago
  Cities are large targets, and given the disregard for civilian casualties (indeed the specific targeting of schools and hospitals which are generally large facilities) would seem to reduce the problems of poor visibility.
  - InitialLastName 5y ago
    I don't think tanks normally want to drive straight through buildings, so I think visibility might still be an issue in cities.
raxxorrax 5y ago
I always wondered why attacking in winter would ever be a good idea in any case. You want to have clear supply lines which certainly work better in friendly weather. Best invasion is a cancelled invasion of course...

jacquesm 5y ago

In the heart of winter the whole country is a road, right now it is very narrow strips that are easily passable and it is getting worse by the day.

rightbyte 5y ago
That applies to UA armor too. Way harder to do hit and runs on road columns when you can't fall back to where ever but have to follow roads your self.
- jacquesm 5y ago
  Defender advantage is substantial in situations like that. Moving targets are a lot harder than stationary ones. Ukraine armor is concentrated around the main cities instead of strung out in long vulnerable stationary lines.
- throwaway6734 5y ago
  Ukraine also has javelins and other shoulder fired anti tank weapons
  - withinboredom 5y ago
    Anything you hit with those is pure luck. Source: experience. Edit: I was thinking of what we had in the Army, which was definitely not guided.
    - chrisseaton 5y ago
      > Anything you hit with those is pure luck. I've never seen a Javelin miss in my entire life. They've got like 5,000 recorded successful engagements. > Source: experience. Are you firing them before they've got a chance to get the sensor down to temperature?
    - Tuna-Fish 5y ago
      Er, no. Javelin is guided. They are videos of them doing some really amazing long-range shots.
      - tome 5y ago
        For example https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sah9nbGQLFY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sah9nbGQLFY
        tablespoon 5y ago
        > For example https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sah9nbGQLFY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sah9nbGQLFY I guess you posted that for the compiled footage, but Lord do I hate voice synthesized narration. From my armchair, it seems totally practical to hit-and-run attack the convoy on foot using fire-and-forget Javelins from 1.5-2 miles away. If the terrain is impassible to vehicles, the attacker can just shoot from the top of a hill and run away down the other side (maybe without even being seen).
        tome 5y ago
        That's interesting. I didn't even notice that! I suppose I found the footage sufficiently compelling to distract me.
        cutemonster 5y ago
        Might the javelin fail to hit the tank, by accidentally homing in on one of the trucks next to it instead? From what I've read, they have too few javelins already

bcrosby95 5y ago

Part of the supposed strategy also involved hitting Ukraine when Europe is reliant upon Russian gas for heating. I was a bit surprised how late into winter they invaded given this goal.

tempestn 5y ago
My understanding is that Europe has several months of gas reserves. Even if Russia cut it off completely, the real pain would come next winter rather than immediately.
- potamic 5y ago
  Where do you store that much gas?
  - dan_hawkins 5y ago
    Underground: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_gas_storage https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_gas_storage
    - potamic 5y ago
      This blows my mind! I knew you couldn't possibly store so much in tanks, but the idea to pump it into the ground is really insane.
  - tempestn 5y ago
    Pressurized tanks, I assume.
    - dan_hawkins 5y ago
      Not really: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_gas_storage https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_gas_storage
      - 5y ago

_3u10 5y ago

Travel across anything not paved during spring break up is near impossible. I don’t think it’s break up, I think it’s resistance, they are getting stalled in the cities. Ukraine has paved highways moving tanks isn’t an issue, except that the highways run through cities. The problem is fundamentally that for every soldier and civilian they kill they are creating 5 to 10 freedom fighters. The more people are killed the greater the resistance. The less likely they can hold the country without reprisals from the people. If they have to resort to barbarism to subdue the people then the sanctions will never end. Putin needs to establish a govt quickly that doesn’t have to resort to atrocities to govern. If he fails to do that he loses the greater overall war.

munk-a 5y ago
I don't know how accomplishable that really is at this point - it's looking like Russian troop cohesion is insanely low[1] and Putin may just need to withdraw forces to keep the domestic situation under wraps. I'm pretty sure if Putin started peace talks he'd be ousted at this point, so he just has to sorta pray that western powers don't stall out the annexation - otherwise I think he's pretty hooped domestically. 1. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/01/russia-low-morale-ukraine-invasion/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/01/russia-lo...
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- brimble 5y ago
  There's still plenty of room for them to convert this apparent impending loss into a partial success by gaining control of the territory they care most about, which is (likely) the South (to relieve Crimea's currently tenuous & expensive situation) and South East (to take full control of the fossil fuel resources there and bridge their territory over to Crimea), which also happen to be the areas they're having the most success in, judging by the various maps of territory they're semi-successfully occupying.
  - _3u10 5y ago

kevin_thibedeau 5y ago

Europe's dependence on Russian gas is a gun to their head that only exists in winter. It took some deliberation to get Germany to accept strong sanctions. That might not have happened a month ago.

zitterbewegung 5y ago

Weather: An invasion that begins in January or February would have the advantage of frozen ground to support the cross-country movement of a large mechanized force. It would also mean operating in conditions of freezing cold and limited visibility. January is usually the coldest and snowiest month of the year in Ukraine, averaging 8.5 hours of daylight during the month and increasing to 10 hours by February.8 This would put a premium on night fighting capabilities to keep an advance moving forward. Should fighting continue into March, mechanized forces would have to deal with the infamous Rasputitsa, or thaw. In October, Rasputitsa turns firm ground into mud. In March, the frozen steppes thaw, and the land again becomes at best a bog, and at worst a sea of mud. Winter weather is also less than optimal for reliable close air support operations. From: https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-possible-invasion-ukraine https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-possible-invasion-ukra...

olliej 5y ago
Cities are large targets, and given the disregard for civilian casualties (indeed the specific targeting of schools and hospitals which are generally large facilities) would seem to reduce the problems of poor visibility.
- InitialLastName 5y ago
  I don't think tanks normally want to drive straight through buildings, so I think visibility might still be an issue in cities.

raxxorrax 5y ago

I always wondered why attacking in winter would ever be a good idea in any case. You want to have clear supply lines which certainly work better in friendly weather. Best invasion is a cancelled invasion of course...