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Look, it is suicide to launch one. Even the craziest shitheads like the Taliban and North Korea won’t do it. Even though some of these people are on the darker

Look, it is suicide to launch one. Even the craziest shitheads like the Taliban and North Korea won’t do it. Even though some of these people are on the darker side of human nature, the dark side still has a self preservation aspect, doubly so for those who like to keep power. Russia killing Ukrainians to secure Ukraine is still somewhat in line with other invasions of this and last century. We are not yet in madness territory, not by any stretch. Most likely we won’t even hit the civilian casualty numbers of the Iraq/Afghanistan war.

tonyedgecombe 5y ago
On the other hand accidents happen. Imagine the 1983 situation[1] under these circumstances. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alarm_incident https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alar...
tiborsaas 5y ago
Putin thinking he can get away with this is already a strong signal of madness. I think he lost his touch with reality and the situation is only going downhill from now. I'd like to be wrong on this one, but for a first time in a long while, I'm not optimistic. I'd be curious to learn a scenario that leads out of this without any more significant damage or escalation. Ukraine just got green lights to become an EU member. Let's hope this will have the effect of deterring nature and not more fuel for madness.
- treeman79 5y ago
  He’s had several other wars. In a way it’s kind of weird how everyone lost their mind over this one but not the others. Maybe social media is the difference, maybe the fear that’s plan was for more then Ukraine. Not sure.
  - tiborsaas 5y ago
    Those wars didn't happen with a common border with the EU. Sadly, it makes all the difference. You are also correct about the role of the internet, social media and that now everybody has a camera in their pocket.
    - crate_barre 5y ago
      Biden has already given him the green light to take Ukraine. He explicitly keeps saying we won’t commit ground troops, unless he enters NATO. The message is keep your imperial ambitions to non-NATO countries. That’s pretty much the deal at this point.
      - tiborsaas 5y ago
        They don't send troops because Putin is threatening with a nuclear counter strike, that's not really a green light.
        treeman79 5y ago
        He could have been ambiguous about sending troops. He could have sent lots of troops to Nato nations. Announcing that we won’t do anything for a small invasion was completely absurd.
      - rand49an 5y ago
        > The message is keep your imperial ambitions to non-NATO countries. That is kind of the point, to make the cost of an attack against a NATO country very high.
chinathrow 5y ago
> We are not yet in madness territory, not by any stretch I disagree.
rectang 5y ago
> ‘Yes, He Would’: Fiona Hill on Putin and Nukes https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-iii-already-there-00012340 https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-... > Putin is increasingly operating emotionally and likely to use all the weapons at his disposal, including nuclear ones. It’s important not to have any illusions — but equally important not to lose hope. > “Every time you think, ’No, he wouldn’t, would he?’ Well, yes, he would,” Hill said. “And he wants us to know that, of course. It’s not that we should be intimidated and scared…. We have to prepare for those contingencies and figure out what is it that we’re going to do to head them off.
- bsenftner 5y ago
  It a strategy to appear unhinged, ready to push the nuclear button.
2OEH8eoCRo0 5y ago
During the Cuban missile crisis, Castro urged Russia to nuke the US. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CtUfBc4qQMg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CtUfBc4qQMg
amelius 5y ago
> Look, it is suicide to launch one. What if Putin loses face, and makes this his exit plan?
idkwhoiam 5y ago
I can think of a scenario where self preservation does not work: one of these sh_theads have cancer and only have X days to live.
ilammy 5y ago
> Even the craziest shitheads like the Taliban and North Korea won’t do it. Never base military decisions on what the enemy would do, rather than what they could do. Granted, your personal coping approach is not such a decision, but the maxim still stands. Moreover, you can’t foresee what Russia’s position will be in 10 years from now. They might not use the A-bomb right now in this war, but who knows what ten years of paranoia and relentless sanctions could do to the leadership and the population.
- hef19898 5y ago
  Or one truely bad election outcome in one those countries: USA, France, Great Britain, Pakistan, Israel, India
arisAlexis 5y ago
Some People do commit suicide

tonyedgecombe 5y ago

On the other hand accidents happen. Imagine the 1983 situation[1] under these circumstances. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alarm_incident https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alar...

tiborsaas 5y ago

Putin thinking he can get away with this is already a strong signal of madness. I think he lost his touch with reality and the situation is only going downhill from now. I'd like to be wrong on this one, but for a first time in a long while, I'm not optimistic. I'd be curious to learn a scenario that leads out of this without any more significant damage or escalation. Ukraine just got green lights to become an EU member. Let's hope this will have the effect of deterring nature and not more fuel for madness.

treeman79 5y ago
He’s had several other wars. In a way it’s kind of weird how everyone lost their mind over this one but not the others. Maybe social media is the difference, maybe the fear that’s plan was for more then Ukraine. Not sure.
- tiborsaas 5y ago
  Those wars didn't happen with a common border with the EU. Sadly, it makes all the difference. You are also correct about the role of the internet, social media and that now everybody has a camera in their pocket.
  - crate_barre 5y ago
    Biden has already given him the green light to take Ukraine. He explicitly keeps saying we won’t commit ground troops, unless he enters NATO. The message is keep your imperial ambitions to non-NATO countries. That’s pretty much the deal at this point.
    - tiborsaas 5y ago
      They don't send troops because Putin is threatening with a nuclear counter strike, that's not really a green light.
      - treeman79 5y ago
        He could have been ambiguous about sending troops. He could have sent lots of troops to Nato nations. Announcing that we won’t do anything for a small invasion was completely absurd.
    - rand49an 5y ago
      > The message is keep your imperial ambitions to non-NATO countries. That is kind of the point, to make the cost of an attack against a NATO country very high.

chinathrow 5y ago

> We are not yet in madness territory, not by any stretch I disagree.

rectang 5y ago

> ‘Yes, He Would’: Fiona Hill on Putin and Nukes https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-iii-already-there-00012340 https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-... > Putin is increasingly operating emotionally and likely to use all the weapons at his disposal, including nuclear ones. It’s important not to have any illusions — but equally important not to lose hope. > “Every time you think, ’No, he wouldn’t, would he?’ Well, yes, he would,” Hill said. “And he wants us to know that, of course. It’s not that we should be intimidated and scared…. We have to prepare for those contingencies and figure out what is it that we’re going to do to head them off.

bsenftner 5y ago
It a strategy to appear unhinged, ready to push the nuclear button.

2OEH8eoCRo0 5y ago

During the Cuban missile crisis, Castro urged Russia to nuke the US. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CtUfBc4qQMg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CtUfBc4qQMg

amelius 5y ago

> Look, it is suicide to launch one. What if Putin loses face, and makes this his exit plan?

idkwhoiam 5y ago

I can think of a scenario where self preservation does not work: one of these sh_theads have cancer and only have X days to live.

ilammy 5y ago

> Even the craziest shitheads like the Taliban and North Korea won’t do it. Never base military decisions on what the enemy would do, rather than what they could do. Granted, your personal coping approach is not such a decision, but the maxim still stands. Moreover, you can’t foresee what Russia’s position will be in 10 years from now. They might not use the A-bomb right now in this war, but who knows what ten years of paranoia and relentless sanctions could do to the leadership and the population.

hef19898 5y ago
Or one truely bad election outcome in one those countries: USA, France, Great Britain, Pakistan, Israel, India

arisAlexis 5y ago

Some People do commit suicide