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I think the 98 crisis will be pale in comparison. Background: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Russian_financial_crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Rus

• jacquesm 5y ago
  It would highly surprise me if it didn't. In fact I totally expect that other financial markets will melt down as well. This is going to be a pretty bitter pill to swallow but if that's the worst that comes from this then fine. It feels like it is 1928 or so, or maybe 1939.
  • scythe 5y ago
    I think it's rather 1956. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suez_Crisis http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suez_Crisis Putin is trying to go all-in with his last few chips. If he succeeds, he'll be in the game for a few more rounds. If he fails, he'll be out. Hitler had allies. He had what was when he took power the best mathematics universities in the world (with comparable success in other areas; he eviscerated German academia, though), and (IIRC) the second or third-largest economy. Putin has a doomsday device that he doesn't actually want to use.
    • usr1106 5y ago
      > Putin is trying to go all-in with his last few chips. [...] If he fails, he'll be out. Or he tries the nuclear option. I would not longer rule that out. He has already lost the first round.
      • Sebb767 5y ago
        Honestly, my hope is that none of the Oligarchs or the Russians at the trigger want to see the world in a fiery end. One thing that might be tricky is if he deploys tactical nukes, though. They're small enough so that the other nuclear powers won't go for all-out annihilation (probably), but still a step towards further escalation.
        • BurningFrog 5y ago
          The oligarchs have no power anymore. It's all Putin.
          • usr1106 5y ago
            I have no deeper understanding about Putin's inner cycle. According a detailed news article yesterday there are only 2 oligarchs left there. He prefers people with way less money these days because they are easier to control. Most oligarchs are completely silent on politics, some are even in prison for corruption. Which of course is not difficult to accuse anybody rich or powerful in Russia. They probably don't have to dream up the evidence like in other cases of political (in)justice.
          • singularity2001 5y ago
            If they have money they have power
            • usr1106 5y ago
              If Putin is against you, no money on the planet helps. He will have you killed in England. It would require many oligarchs to form a conspiracy and remove him and several others from power. I have no insight, but my feeling is not enough people trust each other to do it. One leak or the slightest mistake and they are all dead.
              • pixl97 5y ago
                This only works if they aren't going to die in nuclear fires. Once this gets to the point enough think that crazy Ivan is going to really kick off a global thermonuclear war his own protection fails.
              • rasz 5y ago
                No one has tried retaliating yet. Set up a $100M 'assassinate Putin' fund and watch the fun.
            • 5y ago
      • a1445c8b 5y ago
        Agreed. It’s like cornering a bear: at some point it won’t care if it dies, it will just attack with whatever means available.
      • landemva 5y ago
        Specifically, what do you mean by 'lost the first round'?
        • usr1106 5y ago
          He wanted to destroy the military of the Ukraine within hours. He claimed until yesterday that no Russians will be killed because it's a limited operation, not a war. He certainly expected some symbolic sanctions, but not the massive consequences Russia is facing now. He expected vast support from the Russian public (90% when occupying Crimea 6 years ago). None of those have happened. At the moment he looks like a loser. However, I am not convinced he will just give up like this. He will continue the war. And once he has nothing to lose, danger is that he uses the nuclear option. He has been sitting in a bunker (as Navalny expressed it) for 2 years in fear of the virus, meeting only very few people. It has made him lose contact with reality at least, if not even more severe mental consequences.
          • foverzar 5y ago
            > He has been sitting in a bunker (as Navalny expressed it) for 2 years in fear of the virus, meeting only very few people. Lmao, Navalny wouldn't miss a chance to say something ridiculous like that. Practically all world leaders had engaged in similar anti-COVID measures. And obviously there was no real bunker. I wonder what you base your assertions regarding Putin's expectations on? To me it looks like he only expected more support from people in Ukraine, but it's not that clear, as Russian government seems to have decided to skip the informational warfare part altogether.
            • usr1106 5y ago
              > Practically all world leaders had engaged in similar anti-COVID measures Most of them have been showing up in parliament many times a week, many wearing a mask. (Of course that depends a bit on the government model.) Some of them like Trump, Bolzonaro or Boris Johnson had Covid. Especially Trump grossly ignored scientific advice and had huge campaign events. Trump and Johnson had infamous garden parties. Not that I would call that smart, but that practically all leaders had similar measures is not true. It's said that especially oligarchs lost direct contact to Putin because he stopped meeting people. Whether that is true I can obviously not prove.
    • jacquesm 5y ago
      > Putin has a doomsday device that he doesn't actually want to use. How do you know this?
      • monkeybutton 5y ago
        My first reaction was "which part is being questioned, the doomsday device's existence or the willingness to use it?" such an absurd situation we are all in now. Anyways, maybe the poster is referring to deadhand?
        • miki_tyler 5y ago
          He does not have a deadhand. A deadhand is only useful if everybody knows about its existence.
    • ipsi 5y ago
      > Putin has a doomsday device that he doesn't actually want to use. I'm not so sure about that. I feel it depends on whether Putin still has at least some marbles left. If he does? Yes, he realises that leaving a legacy of "war criminal who nuked Ukraine" isn't actually what he wants so the threat of nukes is making a point to NATO to stay out of it. If he's lost all his marbles, though, or if he's so far out of touch with reality as makes no difference? I could see him nuking Ukraine out of spite if it's clear he won't get what he wants, in a sort of "If I can't have you, no one can!" move. Assuming that there isn't a coup before that, or that him giving that order doesn't trigger a coup, etc, etc.
      • colordrops 5y ago
        Do you have any reason to believes that he's out of touch with reality and lost his marbles?
        • dragontamer 5y ago
          He attacked a neutral neighbor for piss poor reasons, despite having a strong cultural bond with them.
          • __blockcipher__ 5y ago
            Calling them “neutral” is a mistake. At least from Putin’s perspective.
            • jacquesm 5y ago
              Yes, clear, they were occupied already, just not officially.
            • phs318u 5y ago
              Clearly they are more "neutral", than say Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania - all former Soviet client states that are now NATO members. I do honestly suspect this is about delusions of historical grandeur. Ukraine is after all the historical home of Kievan' Rus (with whom most peoples in the region claim historical antecedence). In its "golden age" Vladimir the Great (Volodymir I, Prince of Novgorod) united the Rus peoples under his reign.
    • nextos 5y ago
      The problem is that Putin might be completely irrational, and therefore operating in unpredictable ways. If we believe some of the news, the invasion effort looks poorly coordinated and very risky. There are some units stranded without fuel, some light mechanized units engaged big cities and got repelled, whereas others got destroyed on the roads without proper air cover. Frankly, Russia has some very impressive military tech but the whole thing does not look well planned at all. It seems more like the product of a delusional leader and some incompetent high ranking officials. Getting into urban warfare, which is where this seems to be heading to will turn to big losses on his side. Reminds me of Croatia '91, but without the secession component. Jugoslav National Army threw shitloads of poorly motivated armor units and they got nowhere.
      • Ozzie_osman 5y ago
        He might be more rational than you think. He would rather suffer severe economic damage, have some mild military losses, and see Ukraine destroyed than have the last remaining buffer country between him and NATO end up as part of the NATO/EU/US order. He may also have correctly calculated that despite the media theater and economic sanctions, the US doesn't truly care about Ukraine. It is unfortunately the Ukrainians who will suffer the worst of Putin's aggressiveness and the West's foolishness.
        • ycombigator 5y ago
          The US may not care about Ukraine, but I assure you that Europe does.
        • phs318u 5y ago
          Even autocrats have to rule largely with the consent (or at least the acquiescence) of the governed. Unless he goes full Kim Jong Un, the long-term economic damage will do to him what it did to the Soviet Union. He's miscalculated. I'm struggling to see an end-game in which he can save face and not come out diminished in the long term. To me this all smells of something born out of his will, and not something that's had the kind of in-system planning and support that these things tend to require. I suspect (hope) the long knives are being quietly sharpened in the darker corridors of the Kremlin.
    • deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
    • vba616 5y ago
      >Hitler had allies Last I heard, the governments of China and India were conspicuously refusing to condemn the invasion. It doesn't seem unthinkable to me that a large part of the globe wants and feels they deserve, a "new world order" where the US takes a less hegemonic role and institutional influence is adjusted to reflect the modern world a bit more.
      • scythe 5y ago
        Allies join you, they don't quietly remain neutral. India isn't joining Russia in a world war. Certainly not with China. China, meanwhile, is the superpower in the room and unless they've developed an invisibility cloak they haven't exactly been preparing for a superpower-level struggle. (Yes, they're building up their military, but so is everyone else, and it's been at a consistent pace for two decades.) >It doesn't seem unthinkable to me that a large part of the globe wants and feels they deserve, a "new world order" where the US takes a less hegemonic role It doesn't "seem unthinkable" because they've been literally saying that for half a century. That doesn't mean they want to work with the second coming of Christian nationalism. Anyone who's worked in diplomacy in the global South knows it's hard enough for them to work with each other.
        • AnimalMuppet 5y ago
          Yeah. Belarus is an actual ally. China has been allergic to the word "invasion", perhaps because they don't want it thrown at them if they attack Taiwan. But China is not happy with Russia over this.
          • cutemonster 5y ago
            "puppet state" is a better word. "Alley" is misleading in that it sounds as if the dictator there has any choice except than doing what Putin tells him.
          • vba616 5y ago
            >China is not happy with Russia over this Current events in Ukraine seem like the perfect experiment to see if taking Taiwan is possible. If it's really, really useful, I don't see how happy/unhappy would enter into it. What does "actual ally" mean, according to experts? Was the USSR an actual ally of anyone in WWII? The US sent a zillion dollars worth of Jeeps and spam on the basis of shared interests, not true friendship.
• hourislate 5y ago
  • pixelatedindex 5y ago
    I highly doubt Putin is going to end up being dead, outside of a military coup or uncontainable riots where angry mobs breaking into the Kremlin. This upcoming week is going to be crucial - peace talks have technically started, but it is unknown if Putin’s ego will cloud fair judgment leading him to double down on war efforts. OTOH if Russia’s oligarch bank accounts are heavily impacted, then they might be able to sway Putin away from doubling down. China isn’t showing signs of aggression, which provides major relief to the international markets.
    • robbedpeter 5y ago
      I think China's leadership is probably standing by and thinking "wow, we thought Putin knew what he was doing..." Ukrainians are turning out to be pretty bad ass freedom fighters.
      • adventured 5y ago
        China's only surprise out of this is seeing how weak Russia's military is and how lacking it is operationally and in terms of tech. It's a mess. Putin made a sizable mistake in letting the world see it; it would have been far better to retain the fearsome mirage (ie he should have just focused entirely on taking Donetsk and Luhansk, concentrated the attack solely there; their military could have managed that). Russia's military being in that condition opens up interesting opportunities for China in the next decade or two. 10-15 more years and China will be far beyond Russia militarily.
        • ledauphin 5y ago
          this is true, but so is the US, and as everybody keeps pointing out, how much better your military is doesn't really matter when it comes to conflicts between nuclear nations.
• jmcgough 5y ago
  iirc when the 2008 financial crisis hit, Putin said that he'd never let Russians lose all their savings like in 98 - so much for that promise I guess