5 ms·

Not nearly enough.

sgjohnson 5y ago
It’s the ordinary Russians who are hurt by this, not the elites. I doubt the elites care what the Ruble is worth, because they operate in foreign currencies (namely USD and EUR). Most of their oil is sold in EUR, and other commodities in USD.
- totony 5y ago
  This perception that ordinary people should be immune to the actions of their governments is weird. Civilian opposition to their government is what prevents unnecessary wars. It's not other's duty to fix your country. Civil unrest is the only way to prevent war and a lot of bloodshed.
  - kadoban 5y ago
    That doesn't really work that well in a strong dictatorship.
    - throwaway6532 5y ago
      Does if enough people do it. Strong dictatorship be damned. Heck Ukrainians stood up to a brutal crackdown in the Maidan revolution to oust a pro-Russian puppet leader. It's about numbers and resolve.
      - kadoban 5y ago
        At best that's a messy plan. Are you willing to intentionally make millions of people as miserable as possible on the slim chance that they'll overthrow the people with all the guns and power? Note that the Maidan revolution was driven from within, as far as I know, not forced on the people from without.
        throwaway6532 5y ago
        When the flipside of the equation is potentially MAD then, yes.
        ledauphin 5y ago
        what is the other option?
        aesyondu 5y ago
        Millions are already miserable on the slim chance that they'll overcome the people with all the guns and power and retain their sovereignty and freedom (i.e., Ukraine if that wasn't clear).
        kadoban 5y ago
        The Ukrainian people deserve our help and support. They're doing the best they can with a really shitty situation. I just would not intentionally target the _common_ Russian people as much as it can be avoided. Hurt the oligarchs, Putin, anyone who is actually helping him, etc. It won't be painless for the common Russian people, and we can't really help that. But targetting them is just hurtful for no benefit.
        throwaway6532 5y ago
        On the contrary hurting them will provide a very strong signal to them that something is actually quite wrong. Kremlin is a propaganda machine and while some don't believe what they hear there are others that do. It gets kind of harder and harder to believe you're the good guy when things like that start happening to you. It may prompt you to look at alternative, non-Kremlin news sources and formed a more accurate picture. This may in turn lead to higher and higher numbers of people willing to revolt against Putin. It's absolutely a last resort, but this is the highest stakes game in existence and there is no time to mess around.
        kadoban 5y ago
        That sounds like a plan that _at best_ works on the timeline of years, and more likely never works.
    - totony 5y ago
      What is the alternative?
      - kadoban 5y ago
        If I had an easy one, I wouldn't just be some jackass on the internet. But "let's make millions of people miserable on purpose" doesn't sound like a great start to me. Has it ever worked, either?
        totony 5y ago
        If your government makes a bad decision, it affects you. That's just how it works. I'm not too familiar with history but IIRC most empires fall when they lose internal cohesion or get invaded by a bigger empire. The only alternative to an internal revolution is an invasion (AFAIK). That's not feasible with MAD. Alternatively you can just give them what they want. For how long you can keep that up is the question tho.
        kadoban 5y ago
        Or you can do what we're currently attempting and aim to hurt those in power. Will the common people be affected? Yes. But that shouldn't be the goal.
        totony 5y ago
        I don't think that is the goal. The goal is to stop the war and prevent further escalation. Of course you should focus on the ones who have power, but they are going to use the "general population" as shields. And you don't want to have useless sanctions just so you don't affect the common people.
        kadoban 5y ago
        It's the goal I read from the comment I was responding to: > This perception that ordinary people should be immune to the actions of their governments is weird. Civilian opposition to their government is what prevents unnecessary wars. It's not other's duty to fix your country. Civil unrest is the only way to prevent war and a lot of bloodshed.
  - sgjohnson 5y ago
    I never said that. In fact, I think that ordinary Russians are absolutely complicit. Even last year Putin was still enormously popular with Russians. I was just pointing out that the Ruble falling doesn’t hurt the elites one bit, nor does it stop the Russian war machine.
    - ledauphin 5y ago
      it may not hurt the elites, but it _does_ slow the Russian war machine in the medium to long term. In fact, arguably one of the biggest things we've "learned" from the past week is that we (the west) have been _way_ too economically entwined with Russia for decades, and that is what has enabled this aggression.
    - nick__m 5y ago
      Can we truly know how much Putin is popular when protesters gets violently reprimanded and oppositions poisoned? Asked under those conditions, I am pretty sure I also would "support" Putin.
      - adventured 5y ago
        The people make the culture, the culture produces the rotten government and Putin at the center. The people inevitably empower authoritarians like Putin (Lenin and Stalin didn't magically spring out of nowhere to hold the people hostage, the people made them possible, the culture made them possible, the people enabled them and joined in their revolution, militarism and statism). And certainly to the extent that there is a long-term persistence of terrible outcomes, it's absolutely clear it's the people and the related culture that are responsible. Russia isn't just unlucky to have centuries of repeated history of authoritarian leaders: it's their culture causing it, Putin represents that culture of empire and conquest (and Russia is the only major power in Europe still clinging to such ideology; the Germans, British and French for example have largely abandoned such cultural ideas). It's time for Russia to abandon that aspect of their culture, as the other great European powers have. You'll see lots of headlines about how the West failed to curb Putin, failed to stop or confront his actions at various points. You know who overwhelmingly didn't do anything at all to try to stop him during his long dictatorship? The people of Russia. They are culpable, they are responsible (specifically those that haven't protested or made an effort against his regime, which judging by the small push-back he has faced overall throughout his dictatorship, is the extreme majority of the population). When he began shutting down free news reporting and media, and curbing human rights early into his dictatorship, did they all go into the streets and act against his regime? Did they try to stop him? No they did not, they rolled over promptly, and they didn't do anything much about him since then either. And they thoroughly enjoyed the good times during the oil price boom, no complaints about Putin then (quite the opposite). It is their fault. He has in fact been widely popular with the people of Russia for most of his time in office (not 90% popular, that's fake, but certainly majority positive typically). They liked the fake image he projected for them: power, empire, Russian strength, greatness - like the supposed old days of glory; it made them feel good again after what happened with the USSR.
  - EugeneOZ 5y ago
    That's why sanctions should affect all the population, not just tiny layers (and I’m not talking about the tycoons or elites). This is an example of great sanction - everyone is affected.
- kadoban 5y ago
  Nobody is going to buying their oil, or anything else, for quite some time, and sanctions should be locking up a lot of their toys. Hopefully governments are good at tracking where all of their foreign wealth is hiding.
- tempestn 5y ago
  The impact on ordinary citizens is greatest (in relative terms), but there is an impact on elites, and perhaps some consequences of that already: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/27/two-top-russian-billionaires-speak-out-against-invasion-of-ukraine https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/27/two-top-russia...
- ABeeSea 5y ago
  They will care when it goes from 85 rubles to the dollar to 1000 rubles to the dollar.
- shagmin 5y ago
  Isn't their military made up largely of Russian conscripts? Hurt the ordinary Russians to hurt the Russian military's morale to make Ukraine have more of a fighting chance.

Not nearly enough.

It’s the ordinary Russians who are hurt by this, not the elites. I doubt the elites care what the Ruble is worth, because they operate in foreign currencies (namely USD and EUR). Most of their oil is sold in EUR, and other commodities in USD.

totony 5y ago
This perception that ordinary people should be immune to the actions of their governments is weird. Civilian opposition to their government is what prevents unnecessary wars. It's not other's duty to fix your country. Civil unrest is the only way to prevent war and a lot of bloodshed.
- kadoban 5y ago
  That doesn't really work that well in a strong dictatorship.
  - throwaway6532 5y ago
    Does if enough people do it. Strong dictatorship be damned. Heck Ukrainians stood up to a brutal crackdown in the Maidan revolution to oust a pro-Russian puppet leader. It's about numbers and resolve.
    - kadoban 5y ago
      At best that's a messy plan. Are you willing to intentionally make millions of people as miserable as possible on the slim chance that they'll overthrow the people with all the guns and power? Note that the Maidan revolution was driven from within, as far as I know, not forced on the people from without.
      - throwaway6532 5y ago
        When the flipside of the equation is potentially MAD then, yes.
      - ledauphin 5y ago
        what is the other option?
      - aesyondu 5y ago
        Millions are already miserable on the slim chance that they'll overcome the people with all the guns and power and retain their sovereignty and freedom (i.e., Ukraine if that wasn't clear).
        kadoban 5y ago
        The Ukrainian people deserve our help and support. They're doing the best they can with a really shitty situation. I just would not intentionally target the _common_ Russian people as much as it can be avoided. Hurt the oligarchs, Putin, anyone who is actually helping him, etc. It won't be painless for the common Russian people, and we can't really help that. But targetting them is just hurtful for no benefit.
        throwaway6532 5y ago
        On the contrary hurting them will provide a very strong signal to them that something is actually quite wrong. Kremlin is a propaganda machine and while some don't believe what they hear there are others that do. It gets kind of harder and harder to believe you're the good guy when things like that start happening to you. It may prompt you to look at alternative, non-Kremlin news sources and formed a more accurate picture. This may in turn lead to higher and higher numbers of people willing to revolt against Putin. It's absolutely a last resort, but this is the highest stakes game in existence and there is no time to mess around.
        kadoban 5y ago
        That sounds like a plan that _at best_ works on the timeline of years, and more likely never works.
  - totony 5y ago
    What is the alternative?
    - kadoban 5y ago
      If I had an easy one, I wouldn't just be some jackass on the internet. But "let's make millions of people miserable on purpose" doesn't sound like a great start to me. Has it ever worked, either?
      - totony 5y ago
        If your government makes a bad decision, it affects you. That's just how it works. I'm not too familiar with history but IIRC most empires fall when they lose internal cohesion or get invaded by a bigger empire. The only alternative to an internal revolution is an invasion (AFAIK). That's not feasible with MAD. Alternatively you can just give them what they want. For how long you can keep that up is the question tho.
        kadoban 5y ago
        Or you can do what we're currently attempting and aim to hurt those in power. Will the common people be affected? Yes. But that shouldn't be the goal.
        totony 5y ago
        I don't think that is the goal. The goal is to stop the war and prevent further escalation. Of course you should focus on the ones who have power, but they are going to use the "general population" as shields. And you don't want to have useless sanctions just so you don't affect the common people.
        kadoban 5y ago
        It's the goal I read from the comment I was responding to: > This perception that ordinary people should be immune to the actions of their governments is weird. Civilian opposition to their government is what prevents unnecessary wars. It's not other's duty to fix your country. Civil unrest is the only way to prevent war and a lot of bloodshed.
- sgjohnson 5y ago
  I never said that. In fact, I think that ordinary Russians are absolutely complicit. Even last year Putin was still enormously popular with Russians. I was just pointing out that the Ruble falling doesn’t hurt the elites one bit, nor does it stop the Russian war machine.
  - ledauphin 5y ago
    it may not hurt the elites, but it _does_ slow the Russian war machine in the medium to long term. In fact, arguably one of the biggest things we've "learned" from the past week is that we (the west) have been _way_ too economically entwined with Russia for decades, and that is what has enabled this aggression.
  - nick__m 5y ago
    Can we truly know how much Putin is popular when protesters gets violently reprimanded and oppositions poisoned? Asked under those conditions, I am pretty sure I also would "support" Putin.
    - adventured 5y ago
      The people make the culture, the culture produces the rotten government and Putin at the center. The people inevitably empower authoritarians like Putin (Lenin and Stalin didn't magically spring out of nowhere to hold the people hostage, the people made them possible, the culture made them possible, the people enabled them and joined in their revolution, militarism and statism). And certainly to the extent that there is a long-term persistence of terrible outcomes, it's absolutely clear it's the people and the related culture that are responsible. Russia isn't just unlucky to have centuries of repeated history of authoritarian leaders: it's their culture causing it, Putin represents that culture of empire and conquest (and Russia is the only major power in Europe still clinging to such ideology; the Germans, British and French for example have largely abandoned such cultural ideas). It's time for Russia to abandon that aspect of their culture, as the other great European powers have. You'll see lots of headlines about how the West failed to curb Putin, failed to stop or confront his actions at various points. You know who overwhelmingly didn't do anything at all to try to stop him during his long dictatorship? The people of Russia. They are culpable, they are responsible (specifically those that haven't protested or made an effort against his regime, which judging by the small push-back he has faced overall throughout his dictatorship, is the extreme majority of the population). When he began shutting down free news reporting and media, and curbing human rights early into his dictatorship, did they all go into the streets and act against his regime? Did they try to stop him? No they did not, they rolled over promptly, and they didn't do anything much about him since then either. And they thoroughly enjoyed the good times during the oil price boom, no complaints about Putin then (quite the opposite). It is their fault. He has in fact been widely popular with the people of Russia for most of his time in office (not 90% popular, that's fake, but certainly majority positive typically). They liked the fake image he projected for them: power, empire, Russian strength, greatness - like the supposed old days of glory; it made them feel good again after what happened with the USSR.
- EugeneOZ 5y ago
  That's why sanctions should affect all the population, not just tiny layers (and I’m not talking about the tycoons or elites). This is an example of great sanction - everyone is affected.
kadoban 5y ago
Nobody is going to buying their oil, or anything else, for quite some time, and sanctions should be locking up a lot of their toys. Hopefully governments are good at tracking where all of their foreign wealth is hiding.
tempestn 5y ago
The impact on ordinary citizens is greatest (in relative terms), but there is an impact on elites, and perhaps some consequences of that already: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/27/two-top-russian-billionaires-speak-out-against-invasion-of-ukraine https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/27/two-top-russia...
ABeeSea 5y ago
They will care when it goes from 85 rubles to the dollar to 1000 rubles to the dollar.
shagmin 5y ago
Isn't their military made up largely of Russian conscripts? Hurt the ordinary Russians to hurt the Russian military's morale to make Ukraine have more of a fighting chance.