8 ms·

I wonder how much he cares about his reputation. Do the Russian people believe the lies?

stickfigure 5y ago
If enough human rights abuses show up in media, NATO will grow a pair and get directly involved. That's probably Putin's biggest fear, and why he blusters so much. He thinks the west is decadent and cowardly. So far, in this case, he's been right. The thing about western democracies is that they respond to public sentiment. If the populations are seething with anger, they will want blood. Especially the Americans.
- lazide 5y ago
  Very unlikely NATO (overall) would get involved even if there are serious atrocities. That’ts a fast path to nuclear war. They’ll fortify heavily and the moment any Russian steps onto NATO member soil, they’ll be repelled though. NATO is about mutual self defense, not invasion. Ukraine is caught in the middle between Russia and NATO.
  - stickfigure 5y ago
    Putin threatens nuclear war whenever he wants something. Nobody believes it. You think Putin will commit suicide - both for himself and his people - over Ukraine, which by now quite obviously doesn't want him, even to his own citizens?
    - lazide 5y ago
      You assume too much about Russia and Putin. Historically, the wests lack of understanding of motives and hard lines for Russia has almost caused several nuclear annihilation events. People sometimes have hard lines that are surprising, and will cause them to do things that no rational person would do. Militaries and organizations do too. War causes confusion, stress, anxiety, etc. which magnifies everything. It doesn’t require ‘sane putin’ to push a button for someone somewhere to THINK it makes sense for him to and push the button in their exhausted and freaked out state of mind. Putin didn’t start this invasion because he was bored. Dictators generally do things because their internal power base demands something, but that is rarely visible to us, so we don’t know if a series of hardliner generals need this, or the base of paranoid hardline folks is getting angsty and he knows if he doesn’t appease them he is in trouble. Near as I can tell, the senior leadership has already seen the writing on the wall re:getting frozen out of the west (sanctions and other stuff), and is seizing Ukraine for it’s strategic importance to Russia - food, energy, year round port, buffer against a land invasion to Moscow. They probably see this as now or never. We don’t know how desperate the leadership or Putin may be. Ukraine, like Poland has historically been caught in the middle of these kinds of things, which sucks. it also isn’t their first time.
      - mda 5y ago
        Well, honestly this is another no man no problem situation, solution is clear..
      - stickfigure 5y ago
        I appreciate your perspective. Yet, the west is playing the same game that Putin is - what line is too far to cross? The west has already armed and continues to supply Ukraine, which is probably part of the reason Putin's assault is struggling. I'm sure the west is also supplying satellite and other intelligence to Kyiv. So the "intervene and I nuke you" line has already been crossed, depending on your definition of "intervene". AFAICT nobody is suggesting putting troops on the ground in Russia. Nobody in the west has any desire to conquer Russian territory. There's a big spectrum between "stand back and watch" and "march troops to Moscow". Obviously "supply Ukraine" is already in progress. "Bomb Russian logistics convoys in Ukraine" could be too. Hell, the west doesn't even have to admit it. "We have no idea why your tanks are flaming wrecks, maybe their car warranty has expired?"
        quattrofan 5y ago
        samstave 5y ago
        What I am super intrigued to know ; What is the state of Cyber Warfare (True State) that is occurring? Will there be any major infra attacks? On who, by whom? The anon thing is cool and all - but many suspect that is intelligence agencies masquerading, but who knows about that.. I just hope this thing cools down and fast...
        stickfigure 5y ago
        I'll go out on a limb and call that cyberattacks prove to have zero benefit other than emotional catharsis. They will have no effect in the outcome of this war.
        5y ago
    - hnaccount_rng 5y ago
      You assume, that suicide and loosing are two different things for Putin. There is no retirement option for him though!
      - dragonwriter 5y ago
        Putin can't do much if other people aren't convinced that their least-bad course of action is following him. You seem him calling on the Ukraine military to overthrow the government (which is probably not a great sign of how well his “demilitarize Ukraine” operation is going)? That option isn't available on only one side of the conflict.
      - stjohnswarts 5y ago
        I had this conversation the other day, but my friend did make a good point in that he could seek asylum and retire. He knows the day he steps down and stays in Russia though that he is a dead man walking. He has too many enemies to stay alive very long.
        lazide 5y ago
        Asylum where? If anything, Russia is probably safer than most other countries.
        shrimpx 5y ago
        Maybe he could grow a mustache and buy a coffee farm in South America. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ratlines_(World_War_II_aftermath) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ratlines_(World_War_II_after...
    - stjohnswarts 5y ago
      What if Putin has a brain tumor and doesn't care any more? or is truly turned psychotic like Hitler?
      - lazide 5y ago
        That depends on how likely the next couple layers below him are to recognize it, and think that ignoring him is better than not. I don’t know how that would shake out.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- VirusNewbie 5y ago
  It has nothing to do with cowardice. If a hostile nation state is willing to burn resources holding territory that contains insurgent forces we would be stupid to discourage it. As americans well know, it is really hard to maintain an extended occupation without a loss of money, moral, and life.
  - adventured 5y ago
    At this point ideally we let Russia flood Ukraine with its mediocre ground forces while very aggressively arming the Ukrainians, then cut the Russian troops off from their supply lines, make it difficult to get back out of Ukraine, and let the Ukrainians slaughter the captive invading force (which will promptly surrender as they realize what has happened). The Russians are primed for this setup, they've walked into it. It's the last thing Russia expects. NATO should execute it in the guise of a peacekeeping no-fly zone over Ukraine. It would risk an open war with Russia. That's acceptable if it happens. NATO can cripple half of Russia's army trivially in the field. Putin will push the nuclear angle as this unfolds. So simultaneously encourage Putin's inner circle to kill him or otherwise depose him before he leads them (and their families) into senseless nuclear destruction, by offering peace to the Russia state if it removes Putin (and no military figures from Russia will be tried for war crimes for what they've done thus far re Ukraine). The Russian state will suffer no other losses post agreement, it'll be a neutral peace.
    - Sporktacular 5y ago
      - adventured 5y ago
        I actually understand how reality works, rather than drowning in the irrational, hyper emotionalism of: the world is gunna end if we face off with der Russia, The PuTin will Killeded us all ten times overs with the big nukes. Aka ignorant Reddit thinking. The most important thing that can happen right now is to aggressively begin confronting Russia. They are weak, the invasion was a very bad idea, and they have zero global support for what they're doing and mediocre support at home for the invasion. There is only one way to stop Putin and that's military confrontation. NATO is vastly superior to Russia's forces, now is an excellent time to cripple them in the field. Every time war doesn't go Russia's way they're going to nuke the world? Yeah, sure. Good luck living in that universe. You know, we really can't defend Finland or Sweden or the Baltics (NATO), because hey Russia will nuke everybody, so they just get to keep taking territory at will. Time to go ahead and shut down NATO (you know, the organization that was originated specifically to stand off militarily with Russia, its primary reason for existing). No, time to start standing up to Russia in the field: this is what NATO is for. Ukraine is doing the job that NATO ought to be doing. At the very least we should be helping them dramatically more than what we are now. Don't like the idea of direct confrontation (no-fly zone) - fine, then flood Ukraine with weapons at a much faster pace and put Russia in a position of having to declare war on NATO to stop it.
samstave 5y ago
As it is rumored that Putin is actually (aside from the top 13s), the richest person in the world. He seized all the oligarch's assets for himeself and his cronies, then requires % and payment in every endevour... Just like Xi... --- I personally thought he was just going after getting eastern Ukraine in order to obtain Odessa for the port. I'd like to get confirmation on the bombing of the US Biolabs, though.... even though after it was reported that they were bombed, the US removed the documents from the site which talked about the US funding the joint Biolabs Thankfully all the documents were archived prior :-) [0] Now I am really unsure where the heck this is heading -- these are some really unprecedented events... Is it that the world saw that the Bear was actually weak and everyone is turning on Russia because he was not playing along with WEF and the Great Reset? So they need to knock russia out? --- [0] https://newspunch.com/us-embassy-quietly-deletes-all-ukraine-bioweapon-lab-documents-online-media-blackout/ https://newspunch.com/us-embassy-quietly-deletes-all-ukraine...
wolverine876 5y ago
> I wonder how much he cares about his reputation. Displaying disregard for reputation, morals, etc. is a common negotiating tactic in everything - in professional business, kids selling baseball cards, interational relations, family squabbles. That's what anger is: A display that you are willing to act out and cross lines. Don't believe it; it's just a tactic. Ironically, it indicates the opposite to a degree: By making the display, they show that they care about what you think. For professional communicators like Putin (and anyone else in international relations) it's not a mistake: The Russian government invests enormous effort in their reputation, from their public propaganda to social media disinformation campaigns. It's not at all because they don't care - they care very much. Every government ever needs legitimacy, the consent of the governed, who outnumber the government leaders a million-to-one. (They also need sufficient international relations to trade, to receive essential goods, and not to be destroyed.)

If enough human rights abuses show up in media, NATO will grow a pair and get directly involved. That's probably Putin's biggest fear, and why he blusters so much. He thinks the west is decadent and cowardly. So far, in this case, he's been right. The thing about western democracies is that they respond to public sentiment. If the populations are seething with anger, they will want blood. Especially the Americans.

lazide 5y ago
Very unlikely NATO (overall) would get involved even if there are serious atrocities. That’ts a fast path to nuclear war. They’ll fortify heavily and the moment any Russian steps onto NATO member soil, they’ll be repelled though. NATO is about mutual self defense, not invasion. Ukraine is caught in the middle between Russia and NATO.
- stickfigure 5y ago
  Putin threatens nuclear war whenever he wants something. Nobody believes it. You think Putin will commit suicide - both for himself and his people - over Ukraine, which by now quite obviously doesn't want him, even to his own citizens?
  - lazide 5y ago
    You assume too much about Russia and Putin. Historically, the wests lack of understanding of motives and hard lines for Russia has almost caused several nuclear annihilation events. People sometimes have hard lines that are surprising, and will cause them to do things that no rational person would do. Militaries and organizations do too. War causes confusion, stress, anxiety, etc. which magnifies everything. It doesn’t require ‘sane putin’ to push a button for someone somewhere to THINK it makes sense for him to and push the button in their exhausted and freaked out state of mind. Putin didn’t start this invasion because he was bored. Dictators generally do things because their internal power base demands something, but that is rarely visible to us, so we don’t know if a series of hardliner generals need this, or the base of paranoid hardline folks is getting angsty and he knows if he doesn’t appease them he is in trouble. Near as I can tell, the senior leadership has already seen the writing on the wall re:getting frozen out of the west (sanctions and other stuff), and is seizing Ukraine for it’s strategic importance to Russia - food, energy, year round port, buffer against a land invasion to Moscow. They probably see this as now or never. We don’t know how desperate the leadership or Putin may be. Ukraine, like Poland has historically been caught in the middle of these kinds of things, which sucks. it also isn’t their first time.
    - mda 5y ago
      Well, honestly this is another no man no problem situation, solution is clear..
    - stickfigure 5y ago
      I appreciate your perspective. Yet, the west is playing the same game that Putin is - what line is too far to cross? The west has already armed and continues to supply Ukraine, which is probably part of the reason Putin's assault is struggling. I'm sure the west is also supplying satellite and other intelligence to Kyiv. So the "intervene and I nuke you" line has already been crossed, depending on your definition of "intervene". AFAICT nobody is suggesting putting troops on the ground in Russia. Nobody in the west has any desire to conquer Russian territory. There's a big spectrum between "stand back and watch" and "march troops to Moscow". Obviously "supply Ukraine" is already in progress. "Bomb Russian logistics convoys in Ukraine" could be too. Hell, the west doesn't even have to admit it. "We have no idea why your tanks are flaming wrecks, maybe their car warranty has expired?"
      - quattrofan 5y ago
      - samstave 5y ago
        What I am super intrigued to know ; What is the state of Cyber Warfare (True State) that is occurring? Will there be any major infra attacks? On who, by whom? The anon thing is cool and all - but many suspect that is intelligence agencies masquerading, but who knows about that.. I just hope this thing cools down and fast...
        stickfigure 5y ago
        I'll go out on a limb and call that cyberattacks prove to have zero benefit other than emotional catharsis. They will have no effect in the outcome of this war.
        5y ago
  - hnaccount_rng 5y ago
    You assume, that suicide and loosing are two different things for Putin. There is no retirement option for him though!
    - dragonwriter 5y ago
      Putin can't do much if other people aren't convinced that their least-bad course of action is following him. You seem him calling on the Ukraine military to overthrow the government (which is probably not a great sign of how well his “demilitarize Ukraine” operation is going)? That option isn't available on only one side of the conflict.
    - stjohnswarts 5y ago
      I had this conversation the other day, but my friend did make a good point in that he could seek asylum and retire. He knows the day he steps down and stays in Russia though that he is a dead man walking. He has too many enemies to stay alive very long.
      - lazide 5y ago
        Asylum where? If anything, Russia is probably safer than most other countries.
      - shrimpx 5y ago
        Maybe he could grow a mustache and buy a coffee farm in South America. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ratlines_(World_War_II_aftermath) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ratlines_(World_War_II_after...
  - stjohnswarts 5y ago
    What if Putin has a brain tumor and doesn't care any more? or is truly turned psychotic like Hitler?
    - lazide 5y ago
      That depends on how likely the next couple layers below him are to recognize it, and think that ignoring him is better than not. I don’t know how that would shake out.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
VirusNewbie 5y ago
It has nothing to do with cowardice. If a hostile nation state is willing to burn resources holding territory that contains insurgent forces we would be stupid to discourage it. As americans well know, it is really hard to maintain an extended occupation without a loss of money, moral, and life.
- adventured 5y ago
  At this point ideally we let Russia flood Ukraine with its mediocre ground forces while very aggressively arming the Ukrainians, then cut the Russian troops off from their supply lines, make it difficult to get back out of Ukraine, and let the Ukrainians slaughter the captive invading force (which will promptly surrender as they realize what has happened). The Russians are primed for this setup, they've walked into it. It's the last thing Russia expects. NATO should execute it in the guise of a peacekeeping no-fly zone over Ukraine. It would risk an open war with Russia. That's acceptable if it happens. NATO can cripple half of Russia's army trivially in the field. Putin will push the nuclear angle as this unfolds. So simultaneously encourage Putin's inner circle to kill him or otherwise depose him before he leads them (and their families) into senseless nuclear destruction, by offering peace to the Russia state if it removes Putin (and no military figures from Russia will be tried for war crimes for what they've done thus far re Ukraine). The Russian state will suffer no other losses post agreement, it'll be a neutral peace.
  - Sporktacular 5y ago
    - adventured 5y ago
      I actually understand how reality works, rather than drowning in the irrational, hyper emotionalism of: the world is gunna end if we face off with der Russia, The PuTin will Killeded us all ten times overs with the big nukes. Aka ignorant Reddit thinking. The most important thing that can happen right now is to aggressively begin confronting Russia. They are weak, the invasion was a very bad idea, and they have zero global support for what they're doing and mediocre support at home for the invasion. There is only one way to stop Putin and that's military confrontation. NATO is vastly superior to Russia's forces, now is an excellent time to cripple them in the field. Every time war doesn't go Russia's way they're going to nuke the world? Yeah, sure. Good luck living in that universe. You know, we really can't defend Finland or Sweden or the Baltics (NATO), because hey Russia will nuke everybody, so they just get to keep taking territory at will. Time to go ahead and shut down NATO (you know, the organization that was originated specifically to stand off militarily with Russia, its primary reason for existing). No, time to start standing up to Russia in the field: this is what NATO is for. Ukraine is doing the job that NATO ought to be doing. At the very least we should be helping them dramatically more than what we are now. Don't like the idea of direct confrontation (no-fly zone) - fine, then flood Ukraine with weapons at a much faster pace and put Russia in a position of having to declare war on NATO to stop it.

samstave 5y ago

As it is rumored that Putin is actually (aside from the top 13s), the richest person in the world. He seized all the oligarch's assets for himeself and his cronies, then requires % and payment in every endevour... Just like Xi... --- I personally thought he was just going after getting eastern Ukraine in order to obtain Odessa for the port. I'd like to get confirmation on the bombing of the US Biolabs, though.... even though after it was reported that they were bombed, the US removed the documents from the site which talked about the US funding the joint Biolabs Thankfully all the documents were archived prior :-) [0] Now I am really unsure where the heck this is heading -- these are some really unprecedented events... Is it that the world saw that the Bear was actually weak and everyone is turning on Russia because he was not playing along with WEF and the Great Reset? So they need to knock russia out? --- [0] https://newspunch.com/us-embassy-quietly-deletes-all-ukraine-bioweapon-lab-documents-online-media-blackout/ https://newspunch.com/us-embassy-quietly-deletes-all-ukraine...

wolverine876 5y ago

> I wonder how much he cares about his reputation. Displaying disregard for reputation, morals, etc. is a common negotiating tactic in everything - in professional business, kids selling baseball cards, interational relations, family squabbles. That's what anger is: A display that you are willing to act out and cross lines. Don't believe it; it's just a tactic. Ironically, it indicates the opposite to a degree: By making the display, they show that they care about what you think. For professional communicators like Putin (and anyone else in international relations) it's not a mistake: The Russian government invests enormous effort in their reputation, from their public propaganda to social media disinformation campaigns. It's not at all because they don't care - they care very much. Every government ever needs legitimacy, the consent of the governed, who outnumber the government leaders a million-to-one. (They also need sufficient international relations to trade, to receive essential goods, and not to be destroyed.)