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It can be, relatively speaking, quite easy to defend a city, the Syrian rebels in East Aleppo became quite good at it pretty fast, the same goes for the rebels

It can be, relatively speaking, quite easy to defend a city, the Syrian rebels in East Aleppo became quite good at it pretty fast, the same goes for the rebels in the Damascus neighbourhood of Jobar (for this latter example I recommend this video [1], it gives a general idea of how it well went; bear in mind that it was filmed from the pov of the government forces). The problem is that the attacking force at some point realises that the defendants are pretty well dug in and the commanders of those attacking forces also realise that one of the few solutions available in order to achieve victory is to, almost quite literally, flatten the city. That's what happened in East Aleppo (with the help of the Russian airforce), that's what happened in Jobar, too. Not sure if the flattening of Kyiv would be the best thing for the Ukranian people going forward. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x9ZXPhmR7lQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x9ZXPhmR7lQ

squarefoot 5y ago
Flattening Kyiv is Putin's last resort: he can't retire and he can't drag things for too long, but should he give the order to level the city and reports would slip under the censorship to Russian people and the rest of the world, that would surely be the first day of his demise.
- baybal2 5y ago
  He is already doing it, just ran out of ammo. Russian ammo stockpiles are wast, but very old, and decrepit. Some literally date to WW2. In first 2 days, they used pretty much everything against city outskirts. You think Putin is afraid losing sleep? He already tried to bomb the Kiyv dam multiple times, he wants to destroy the city plainly, and simple. https://uacrisis.org/en/the-russian-occupiers-tried-to-blow-up-the-dam-of-the-kyiv-reservoir https://uacrisis.org/en/the-russian-occupiers-tried-to-blow-... If Kiyv dam is breached, it will flood the Zaporizhna nuclear plant.
  - AYBABTME 5y ago
    Where did you get this data about their ammo stockpiles? I'd love to believe it.
    - bluGill 5y ago
      Even if true pre WWII era ammo is often found by sportsmen and tested, it works just fine. Modern shell design which is over 100 years old doesn't degrade with time very much. New ammo is more reliable of course, but old works well enough if you have a gun to use it in.
      - technothrasher 5y ago
        Yup, I've fired plenty of WWII era 7.62x54r out of my M91/30. No issues with it ever.
    - simonh 5y ago
      It’s bogus, the standard rifle of the Russian forces is the AK-74, developed in the 1970s. Their main tank is the T-72 developed in the 70s but continuously developed and upgraded since. Most of their attack helicopters date from the 70s and 80s or later. That may all sound dated, but bear in mind the M4 rifle used by US troops is based on a 60s design and the Abrams M1 tank is basically a 70s design. The Russian forces have been comprehensively re-equipped and resourced over the last decade and have experience from operations in Chechnya and Syria.
      - baybal2 5y ago
        122mm ammo - WW2 stocks still there, 7.62x54R - same, 82mm mortars ammo - same, earliest KPV ammo is just few years older.
        ByersReason 5y ago
        Old tanks as no match for modern MANPADs
        5y ago
  - chefkoch 5y ago
    Sure, the russians who have been fighting in syria since 2015 and who have build more than 8000 of their most modern tank run out of ammo in 2 days. It would be really good news, but that's totally unbelievable.
    - terafo 5y ago
      They lost more soldiers just today than in all of the syrian war. And it's not about "all of russia ran out of ammo", it's "they overstretched their supply lines and can't supply enough ammo, fuel, etc, so their forces have just what they took with them".
      - chefkoch 5y ago
        It's only a four hours drive from russia to kiev, i can't believe one of the biggest armies in the World can Not find enough trucks to do this.
        stickfigure 5y ago
        It also seems unlikely to me and I am skeptical. But logistics are hard under fire? Does Russia control the airspace or are the rumors true that Ukraine still has aircraft? Are there enemy teams with shoulder-launched missiles along the route? With cheap drones for reconnaissance? My impression is that the country is full of handheld antiair and antitank weapons, supplied by the west. That can't make it easy.
        dragonwriter 5y ago
        While troops were deployed to Belarus for “exercises”, there were lots of reports of them selling fuel and other supplies. That could have complicated logistics for the invasion.
        terafo 5y ago
        Majority of Ukrainian aircraft is intact. Drones are being used. >Are there enemy teams with shoulder-launched missiles along the route? Yes, and civilians are doing whatever they can to stop them. >My impression is that the country is full of handheld antiair and antitank weapons, supplied by the west. That can't make it easy. Yes. It's true, and more are coming.
  - stjohnswarts 5y ago
    Russia has plenty of new artillery and arms. They have been building up a couple of decades. This is a tiny percentage of what they have waiting in the wings.
- ant6n 5y ago
  Kiev is the cradle of Russia. It would be like the US flattening London.
  - SergeAx 5y ago
    This is extremely bad and distracting analogy.
    - dalbasal 5y ago
      Almost all analogies are bad and distracting, to some extent. Itoh, I do think it gets across, coarsely, a point about the sentiment scape. Russian people's tolerance of Ukrainian suffering can't be taken for granted. Kievans haven't attacked them, or given Russians much reason to hate them. Hate is a necessary ingredient for that kind of war.
      - jessaustin 5y ago
        Hate is a necessary ingredient... Not when there is control fraud. Very few Americans hate Iraqis, Libyans, Syrians, Yemenis, Afghans, Palestinians, Vietnamese, etc.
      - InCityDreams 5y ago
        It's great to know someone else (coarsely) feels this way. Once people introduce analogies, I give up as they a) become a discussion about the analogy, or b) result in further analogies, and further discussions not about the original argument. 'Bad and distracting'. Yes.
  - redisman 5y ago
    If they flatten Kiyv.. I don’t know. I would want my country to send in troops.
    - throwawayay02 5y ago
      Would you volunteer to go?
- wyldfire 5y ago
  I wonder how much he cares about his reputation. Do the Russian people believe the lies?
  - stickfigure 5y ago
    If enough human rights abuses show up in media, NATO will grow a pair and get directly involved. That's probably Putin's biggest fear, and why he blusters so much. He thinks the west is decadent and cowardly. So far, in this case, he's been right. The thing about western democracies is that they respond to public sentiment. If the populations are seething with anger, they will want blood. Especially the Americans.
    - lazide 5y ago
      Very unlikely NATO (overall) would get involved even if there are serious atrocities. That’ts a fast path to nuclear war. They’ll fortify heavily and the moment any Russian steps onto NATO member soil, they’ll be repelled though. NATO is about mutual self defense, not invasion. Ukraine is caught in the middle between Russia and NATO.
      - stickfigure 5y ago
        Putin threatens nuclear war whenever he wants something. Nobody believes it. You think Putin will commit suicide - both for himself and his people - over Ukraine, which by now quite obviously doesn't want him, even to his own citizens?
        lazide 5y ago
        You assume too much about Russia and Putin. Historically, the wests lack of understanding of motives and hard lines for Russia has almost caused several nuclear annihilation events. People sometimes have hard lines that are surprising, and will cause them to do things that no rational person would do. Militaries and organizations do too. War causes confusion, stress, anxiety, etc. which magnifies everything. It doesn’t require ‘sane putin’ to push a button for someone somewhere to THINK it makes sense for him to and push the button in their exhausted and freaked out state of mind. Putin didn’t start this invasion because he was bored. Dictators generally do things because their internal power base demands something, but that is rarely visible to us, so we don’t know if a series of hardliner generals need this, or the base of paranoid hardline folks is getting angsty and he knows if he doesn’t appease them he is in trouble. Near as I can tell, the senior leadership has already seen the writing on the wall re:getting frozen out of the west (sanctions and other stuff), and is seizing Ukraine for it’s strategic importance to Russia - food, energy, year round port, buffer against a land invasion to Moscow. They probably see this as now or never. We don’t know how desperate the leadership or Putin may be. Ukraine, like Poland has historically been caught in the middle of these kinds of things, which sucks. it also isn’t their first time.
- tootie 5y ago
  As much as Russia have an overwhelming tactical advantage they also have the most to lose. Putin has staked everything on this being a war that he will win and win with ease. A loss is completely unacceptable and even a protracted siege or insurrection would be enormously costly.
somenameforme 5y ago
The other choice is a siege. See the Siege of Sarajevo [1]. A dramatically numerically inferior force (by 5:1) laid siege to a numerically superior, but poorly equipped, force that was intermittently supported by the UN/NATO. It lasted just under 4 years, and ended in a stalemate and some absolute horror stories from survivors. And of course if a city under siege cannot get sufficient resources in and is not self sufficient (let alone while under siege), then a siege can end a conflict extremely quickly. [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Sarajevo https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Sarajevo
- mderazon 5y ago
  Doesn't apply to Gaza apparently
  - ethbr0 5y ago
    The problem with Gaza is as one of my friends from the Middle East summarized it: no government* really cares about the Palestinians. Sure, they'll use them for propaganda purposes, and to rail against Israel, but when it comes to taking actions with limited resources? Well, they don't care that much. * Except maybe Iran. But there are a lot of mixed motivations (and religious baggage) between Hamas and Iran.
- 7373737373 5y ago
  Time for a (drone) Kyiv Airlift? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berlin_Blockade#Start_of_the_Berlin_Airlift https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berlin_Blockade#Start_of_the_B...
  - anikan_vader 5y ago
    Not easy to do an airlift when your opponent has air superiority. The United States had guaranteed air corridors to Berlin.
    - thelittleone 5y ago
      Although not suited to an airlift of heavy items, a swarm of drones would be super difficult to defend against in an urban environment. Have them drop thermite or pipebombs or just draw fire to find enemy positions, or distract them during an assault.
trhway 5y ago
The Chezhoslovakia 68 scenario - quick takeover of the capital center with the central government - that Putin planned has already failed, in particular Russia failed to take the airfields near Kiev and can't bring the quick assault forces. Russia officially announced that they intentionally slowed the offense on Kiev now. That naturally a total BS. Ukrainians have won the opening, and Putin has no game forward. With German Stingers Russia's air superiority will be drastically reduced. Even flattening Kiev wouldn't help Putin as it is already obvious that Ukrainians will be shooting even from those piles of rubble Stalingrad style, and Ukrainian forces will be growing with each day while Russian dwindling. By moving onto Kiev right now Putin will be going down the Hitler's path of failed Blitzkrieg -> Stalingrad -> to be ultimately beaten back, in this case, to Moscow by the Ukrainian led coalition (there is no need for other countries to officially declare war as there is a well established pattern of well equipped volunteers, and there is no nuke issue as Russia will not strike its own territory, and in general Russians would hardly provide any resistance as the Putin's bottom really isn't worth it for them) with Nuremberg 2, etc.
- nine_zeros 5y ago
  If Russia officially announced that they've intentionally slowed down with BS reasons, they failed in their first attempt and won't admit it.
  - xapata 5y ago
    They announced pausing, but didn't pause.
- jacobolus 5y ago
  While we are here, https://www.benning.army.mil/armor/earmor/content/issues/2017/spring/2Fiore17.pdf https://www.benning.army.mil/armor/earmor/content/issues/201... (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30475340 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30475340) is pretty insightful about the capabilities and tactical limitations of the Russian army’s BTG organization structure.
- int_19h 5y ago
  Ukraine, even with volunteers from other countries, cannot take Moscow. And why do you believe that an authoritarian regime will hesitate to use nukes on its own soil, if its survival is at stake?

squarefoot 5y ago

Flattening Kyiv is Putin's last resort: he can't retire and he can't drag things for too long, but should he give the order to level the city and reports would slip under the censorship to Russian people and the rest of the world, that would surely be the first day of his demise.

baybal2 5y ago
He is already doing it, just ran out of ammo. Russian ammo stockpiles are wast, but very old, and decrepit. Some literally date to WW2. In first 2 days, they used pretty much everything against city outskirts. You think Putin is afraid losing sleep? He already tried to bomb the Kiyv dam multiple times, he wants to destroy the city plainly, and simple. https://uacrisis.org/en/the-russian-occupiers-tried-to-blow-up-the-dam-of-the-kyiv-reservoir https://uacrisis.org/en/the-russian-occupiers-tried-to-blow-... If Kiyv dam is breached, it will flood the Zaporizhna nuclear plant.
- AYBABTME 5y ago
  Where did you get this data about their ammo stockpiles? I'd love to believe it.
  - bluGill 5y ago
    Even if true pre WWII era ammo is often found by sportsmen and tested, it works just fine. Modern shell design which is over 100 years old doesn't degrade with time very much. New ammo is more reliable of course, but old works well enough if you have a gun to use it in.
    - technothrasher 5y ago
      Yup, I've fired plenty of WWII era 7.62x54r out of my M91/30. No issues with it ever.
  - simonh 5y ago
    It’s bogus, the standard rifle of the Russian forces is the AK-74, developed in the 1970s. Their main tank is the T-72 developed in the 70s but continuously developed and upgraded since. Most of their attack helicopters date from the 70s and 80s or later. That may all sound dated, but bear in mind the M4 rifle used by US troops is based on a 60s design and the Abrams M1 tank is basically a 70s design. The Russian forces have been comprehensively re-equipped and resourced over the last decade and have experience from operations in Chechnya and Syria.
    - baybal2 5y ago
      122mm ammo - WW2 stocks still there, 7.62x54R - same, 82mm mortars ammo - same, earliest KPV ammo is just few years older.
      - ByersReason 5y ago
        Old tanks as no match for modern MANPADs
        5y ago
- chefkoch 5y ago
  Sure, the russians who have been fighting in syria since 2015 and who have build more than 8000 of their most modern tank run out of ammo in 2 days. It would be really good news, but that's totally unbelievable.
  - terafo 5y ago
    They lost more soldiers just today than in all of the syrian war. And it's not about "all of russia ran out of ammo", it's "they overstretched their supply lines and can't supply enough ammo, fuel, etc, so their forces have just what they took with them".
    - chefkoch 5y ago
      It's only a four hours drive from russia to kiev, i can't believe one of the biggest armies in the World can Not find enough trucks to do this.
      - stickfigure 5y ago
        It also seems unlikely to me and I am skeptical. But logistics are hard under fire? Does Russia control the airspace or are the rumors true that Ukraine still has aircraft? Are there enemy teams with shoulder-launched missiles along the route? With cheap drones for reconnaissance? My impression is that the country is full of handheld antiair and antitank weapons, supplied by the west. That can't make it easy.
        dragonwriter 5y ago
        While troops were deployed to Belarus for “exercises”, there were lots of reports of them selling fuel and other supplies. That could have complicated logistics for the invasion.
        terafo 5y ago
        Majority of Ukrainian aircraft is intact. Drones are being used. >Are there enemy teams with shoulder-launched missiles along the route? Yes, and civilians are doing whatever they can to stop them. >My impression is that the country is full of handheld antiair and antitank weapons, supplied by the west. That can't make it easy. Yes. It's true, and more are coming.
- stjohnswarts 5y ago
  Russia has plenty of new artillery and arms. They have been building up a couple of decades. This is a tiny percentage of what they have waiting in the wings.
ant6n 5y ago
Kiev is the cradle of Russia. It would be like the US flattening London.
- SergeAx 5y ago
  This is extremely bad and distracting analogy.
  - dalbasal 5y ago
    Almost all analogies are bad and distracting, to some extent. Itoh, I do think it gets across, coarsely, a point about the sentiment scape. Russian people's tolerance of Ukrainian suffering can't be taken for granted. Kievans haven't attacked them, or given Russians much reason to hate them. Hate is a necessary ingredient for that kind of war.
    - jessaustin 5y ago
      Hate is a necessary ingredient... Not when there is control fraud. Very few Americans hate Iraqis, Libyans, Syrians, Yemenis, Afghans, Palestinians, Vietnamese, etc.
    - InCityDreams 5y ago
      It's great to know someone else (coarsely) feels this way. Once people introduce analogies, I give up as they a) become a discussion about the analogy, or b) result in further analogies, and further discussions not about the original argument. 'Bad and distracting'. Yes.
- redisman 5y ago
  If they flatten Kiyv.. I don’t know. I would want my country to send in troops.
  - throwawayay02 5y ago
    Would you volunteer to go?
wyldfire 5y ago
I wonder how much he cares about his reputation. Do the Russian people believe the lies?
- stickfigure 5y ago
  If enough human rights abuses show up in media, NATO will grow a pair and get directly involved. That's probably Putin's biggest fear, and why he blusters so much. He thinks the west is decadent and cowardly. So far, in this case, he's been right. The thing about western democracies is that they respond to public sentiment. If the populations are seething with anger, they will want blood. Especially the Americans.
  - lazide 5y ago
    Very unlikely NATO (overall) would get involved even if there are serious atrocities. That’ts a fast path to nuclear war. They’ll fortify heavily and the moment any Russian steps onto NATO member soil, they’ll be repelled though. NATO is about mutual self defense, not invasion. Ukraine is caught in the middle between Russia and NATO.
    - stickfigure 5y ago
      Putin threatens nuclear war whenever he wants something. Nobody believes it. You think Putin will commit suicide - both for himself and his people - over Ukraine, which by now quite obviously doesn't want him, even to his own citizens?
      - lazide 5y ago
        You assume too much about Russia and Putin. Historically, the wests lack of understanding of motives and hard lines for Russia has almost caused several nuclear annihilation events. People sometimes have hard lines that are surprising, and will cause them to do things that no rational person would do. Militaries and organizations do too. War causes confusion, stress, anxiety, etc. which magnifies everything. It doesn’t require ‘sane putin’ to push a button for someone somewhere to THINK it makes sense for him to and push the button in their exhausted and freaked out state of mind. Putin didn’t start this invasion because he was bored. Dictators generally do things because their internal power base demands something, but that is rarely visible to us, so we don’t know if a series of hardliner generals need this, or the base of paranoid hardline folks is getting angsty and he knows if he doesn’t appease them he is in trouble. Near as I can tell, the senior leadership has already seen the writing on the wall re:getting frozen out of the west (sanctions and other stuff), and is seizing Ukraine for it’s strategic importance to Russia - food, energy, year round port, buffer against a land invasion to Moscow. They probably see this as now or never. We don’t know how desperate the leadership or Putin may be. Ukraine, like Poland has historically been caught in the middle of these kinds of things, which sucks. it also isn’t their first time.
tootie 5y ago
As much as Russia have an overwhelming tactical advantage they also have the most to lose. Putin has staked everything on this being a war that he will win and win with ease. A loss is completely unacceptable and even a protracted siege or insurrection would be enormously costly.

somenameforme 5y ago

The other choice is a siege. See the Siege of Sarajevo [1]. A dramatically numerically inferior force (by 5:1) laid siege to a numerically superior, but poorly equipped, force that was intermittently supported by the UN/NATO. It lasted just under 4 years, and ended in a stalemate and some absolute horror stories from survivors. And of course if a city under siege cannot get sufficient resources in and is not self sufficient (let alone while under siege), then a siege can end a conflict extremely quickly. [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Sarajevo https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Sarajevo

mderazon 5y ago
Doesn't apply to Gaza apparently
- ethbr0 5y ago
  The problem with Gaza is as one of my friends from the Middle East summarized it: no government* really cares about the Palestinians. Sure, they'll use them for propaganda purposes, and to rail against Israel, but when it comes to taking actions with limited resources? Well, they don't care that much. * Except maybe Iran. But there are a lot of mixed motivations (and religious baggage) between Hamas and Iran.
7373737373 5y ago
Time for a (drone) Kyiv Airlift? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berlin_Blockade#Start_of_the_Berlin_Airlift https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berlin_Blockade#Start_of_the_B...
- anikan_vader 5y ago
  Not easy to do an airlift when your opponent has air superiority. The United States had guaranteed air corridors to Berlin.
  - thelittleone 5y ago
    Although not suited to an airlift of heavy items, a swarm of drones would be super difficult to defend against in an urban environment. Have them drop thermite or pipebombs or just draw fire to find enemy positions, or distract them during an assault.

trhway 5y ago

The Chezhoslovakia 68 scenario - quick takeover of the capital center with the central government - that Putin planned has already failed, in particular Russia failed to take the airfields near Kiev and can't bring the quick assault forces. Russia officially announced that they intentionally slowed the offense on Kiev now. That naturally a total BS. Ukrainians have won the opening, and Putin has no game forward. With German Stingers Russia's air superiority will be drastically reduced. Even flattening Kiev wouldn't help Putin as it is already obvious that Ukrainians will be shooting even from those piles of rubble Stalingrad style, and Ukrainian forces will be growing with each day while Russian dwindling. By moving onto Kiev right now Putin will be going down the Hitler's path of failed Blitzkrieg -> Stalingrad -> to be ultimately beaten back, in this case, to Moscow by the Ukrainian led coalition (there is no need for other countries to officially declare war as there is a well established pattern of well equipped volunteers, and there is no nuke issue as Russia will not strike its own territory, and in general Russians would hardly provide any resistance as the Putin's bottom really isn't worth it for them) with Nuremberg 2, etc.

nine_zeros 5y ago
If Russia officially announced that they've intentionally slowed down with BS reasons, they failed in their first attempt and won't admit it.
- xapata 5y ago
  They announced pausing, but didn't pause.
jacobolus 5y ago
While we are here, https://www.benning.army.mil/armor/earmor/content/issues/2017/spring/2Fiore17.pdf https://www.benning.army.mil/armor/earmor/content/issues/201... (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30475340 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30475340) is pretty insightful about the capabilities and tactical limitations of the Russian army’s BTG organization structure.
int_19h 5y ago
Ukraine, even with volunteers from other countries, cannot take Moscow. And why do you believe that an authoritarian regime will hesitate to use nukes on its own soil, if its survival is at stake?