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So Russia doesn’t provide the EU with any gas in a world systemically short of gas and that’s going to hurt Russia is it. How exactly? They still have the gas

So Russia doesn’t provide the EU with any gas in a world systemically short of gas and that’s going to hurt Russia is it. How exactly? They still have the gas and Europe has no fertiliser or heat. Eventually mainstream economists will realise that you only export to import and that imports are a real benefit whereas exports are a real cost. To win in international trade you want as many imports for as few exports as possible. If Russia isn’t importing anything then it has no need to export at all. There are plenty of jobs going making armaments and equipment for the Russian war machine, so nobody in Russia is going to be short of a job either. Russia has no need of the West’s money. It has its own and can ensure people need to obtain it by imposing the necessary level of taxation. Which if you don’t pay in roubles gets you a stretch in the gulag. It really is time for some people to re-read Keynes’s “How to pay for the war”

adventured 5y ago
> Russia has no need of the West’s money. It has its own The West can effectively devalue the Ruble, cripple their economy, and make them an economic pariah for generations. It would be possible to cut their economy in half in real-terms, even with China helping them. The USSR was far mightier - both militarily and economically - than modern Russia and we economically contained them. We can break modern Russia if necessary. And China? They're dealmakers and they will sell out Russia if presented the right deal, it's primarily a question of what they would want. The West and its affluent allies have more to offer China than Russia does by a factor of 20x. It's possible to almost entirely isolate Russia if we need to do it.
- 988747 5y ago
  I think GP's point was: Devaluating Ruble could cripple Russian economy only if they imported a lot, which they don't. They are self-sufficient, they have all the natural resources on their territory, and they have manufacturing capabilities to produce everything they need, they do not need any trade with the rest of the world. Also, Russian people are used to being poor, so it's not like they will rebel because of getting even poorer.
- type0 5y ago
  > And China? They're dealmakers and they will sell out Russia if presented the right deal, it's primarily a question of what they would want. No, they want Taiwan and US wouldn't consider that. China wouldn't sell out Russia for anything other than World domination, they are Chinas only friendly big neighbor and their best companion against the US.
- neilwilson 5y ago
  "It's possible to almost entirely isolate Russia if we need to do it." And how is that a problem for Russia. They are self-sufficient in everything they need.
  - pcwalton 5y ago
    The US is way more self-sufficient than Russia is: we have abundant natural resources, plenty of food, technology that puts that of Russia to shame, a far more modern and competent military, several times the GDP per capita, etc. But nobody says the US would be just fine if it walled itself off from the rest of the world.
lumost 5y ago
The Soviet Union and modern Russia buoyed their economies and national programs through gas exports. If Europe stops buying Russian gas, then there is only so much they can ship to china through existing infrastructure. Worse Europe may block the transit of Russian gas through their borders. This would be a lose lose situation for everyone, but It’s a test of European and eventually American will to do without vs the Russian governments failure to pay its obligations. How long will the oligarchs tolerate austerity for Ukraine?
CyberRage 5y ago
If you look strategically Russia is in trouble, their economy is brittle and heavily relies on fossils, the same fossils the west is phasing out for "clean" alternatives. Fuel dependency will definitely drop in the coming decade, what Russia has beyond it?
MattGaiser 5y ago
> So Russia doesn’t provide the EU with any gas in a world systemically short of gas and that’s going to hurt Russia is it. > How exactly? They still have the gas and Europe has no fertiliser or heat. Logistics for one thing. Where/how are they going to sell that gas? Western Canada has plenty of gas too. It cannot be used to supply Europe because of logistics.
zelphirkalt 5y ago
And yet Russia would not get that money for their gas, which they seem to have in abundance, if they did not export it. All their surplus of gas would not get them anything. Russia may be able to do its own thing inside Russia for a long time, but in the meantime the world moves on and leaves them behind. It would be unwise of Russia to let it come to this. But then again a madman is a madman ...

adventured 5y ago

> Russia has no need of the West’s money. It has its own The West can effectively devalue the Ruble, cripple their economy, and make them an economic pariah for generations. It would be possible to cut their economy in half in real-terms, even with China helping them. The USSR was far mightier - both militarily and economically - than modern Russia and we economically contained them. We can break modern Russia if necessary. And China? They're dealmakers and they will sell out Russia if presented the right deal, it's primarily a question of what they would want. The West and its affluent allies have more to offer China than Russia does by a factor of 20x. It's possible to almost entirely isolate Russia if we need to do it.

988747 5y ago
I think GP's point was: Devaluating Ruble could cripple Russian economy only if they imported a lot, which they don't. They are self-sufficient, they have all the natural resources on their territory, and they have manufacturing capabilities to produce everything they need, they do not need any trade with the rest of the world. Also, Russian people are used to being poor, so it's not like they will rebel because of getting even poorer.
type0 5y ago
> And China? They're dealmakers and they will sell out Russia if presented the right deal, it's primarily a question of what they would want. No, they want Taiwan and US wouldn't consider that. China wouldn't sell out Russia for anything other than World domination, they are Chinas only friendly big neighbor and their best companion against the US.
neilwilson 5y ago
"It's possible to almost entirely isolate Russia if we need to do it." And how is that a problem for Russia. They are self-sufficient in everything they need.
- pcwalton 5y ago
  The US is way more self-sufficient than Russia is: we have abundant natural resources, plenty of food, technology that puts that of Russia to shame, a far more modern and competent military, several times the GDP per capita, etc. But nobody says the US would be just fine if it walled itself off from the rest of the world.

lumost 5y ago

The Soviet Union and modern Russia buoyed their economies and national programs through gas exports. If Europe stops buying Russian gas, then there is only so much they can ship to china through existing infrastructure. Worse Europe may block the transit of Russian gas through their borders. This would be a lose lose situation for everyone, but It’s a test of European and eventually American will to do without vs the Russian governments failure to pay its obligations. How long will the oligarchs tolerate austerity for Ukraine?

CyberRage 5y ago

If you look strategically Russia is in trouble, their economy is brittle and heavily relies on fossils, the same fossils the west is phasing out for "clean" alternatives. Fuel dependency will definitely drop in the coming decade, what Russia has beyond it?

MattGaiser 5y ago

> So Russia doesn’t provide the EU with any gas in a world systemically short of gas and that’s going to hurt Russia is it. > How exactly? They still have the gas and Europe has no fertiliser or heat. Logistics for one thing. Where/how are they going to sell that gas? Western Canada has plenty of gas too. It cannot be used to supply Europe because of logistics.

zelphirkalt 5y ago

And yet Russia would not get that money for their gas, which they seem to have in abundance, if they did not export it. All their surplus of gas would not get them anything. Russia may be able to do its own thing inside Russia for a long time, but in the meantime the world moves on and leaves them behind. It would be unwise of Russia to let it come to this. But then again a madman is a madman ...