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> It's interesting that he's losing the war, too. I would certainly like to see Ukraine prevail, but by what measure is he losing the war? Ukraine is a large c

> It's interesting that he's losing the war, too. I would certainly like to see Ukraine prevail, but by what measure is he losing the war? Ukraine is a large country, and moving through urban centers takes time.

JumpCrisscross 5y ago
> but by what measure is he losing the war? He isn’t losing, but his strategy clearly failed. He attempted blitzkrieg. Paris fell without resistance [1]. Kiev’s will remains unbroken. Furthermore, Putin has failed to achieve air superiority. He’s bogged down in urban warfare. All of which gives the West time to grow a pair. [1] https://judymccarver.com/2017/07/a-timeline-of-nazi-occupied-paris-june-14-1940-to-august-21-1944.html https://judymccarver.com/2017/07/a-timeline-of-nazi-occupied...
- abernard1 5y ago
  Here's an infographic that shows the timeline of the German blitzkrieg vs this [1]. By any measure, this is one of the fastest and most aggressive sieges of all time. It is comparable to the speed of Desert Storm or Iraq, and those were mainly driven by air power. The land troops needed to drive straight in desert, not in a combination of urban hills in winter. I've been watching this, and frankly given the high number (>dozen) of verifiably false claims made by Ukraine, it would not surprise me if they are losing badly. In our hyperconnected world, we forget how "fast" things seemed to people without the internet. [1] https://twitter.com/bazaarofwar/status/1497408494995218432 https://twitter.com/bazaarofwar/status/1497408494995218432
  - SamoyedFurFluff 5y ago
    > I've been watching this, and frankly given the high number (>dozen) of verifiably false claims made by Ukraine Would you be willing (for the education of myself at least) express some of the more egregious false claims? I am a layman in this stuff so I just go with what media has to say, so I’m curious what I a layman am likely misinformed about.
  - sillysaurusx 5y ago
    I see that Russia has carved out a nice straight line. A very thin line. That line carries their supplies. You're right that things move fast. Gas runs out fast too, when you're running your tanks 24/7. Sure would be a shame if Ukraine's air force blew up the fuel trucks that they're expecting to come refill them. And you're also right that Ukraine may be losing badly. But that was the default assumption. Everything I've seen in the last day has made me rethink. If the Russians can't even knock out Ukraine's internet, can they really take and hold Kiev?
    - aix1 5y ago
      > That line carries their supplies. Russia doesn't need this line to carry supplies along the border. They can just carry them on the other side of the border (through Russia or, if we're talking further west, through Belarus).
      - sillysaurusx 5y ago
        Kaboom: https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/t2d2a9/ukrainian_troops_defending_chernihiv_region_blew/ https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/t2d2a9/ukrainian... > Ukrainian troops defending Chernihiv region blew up 56 tanks of diesel fuel that were being transported by a Russian military convoy
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    It's extremely fast and aggressive because it is desperate. Putin doesn't have any time and he knows it, the West was slow to formulate a response but it is getting there, sentiment is turning and before long there will be a different wind blowing. Internal support for this war is already wavering - see the video of the Russian security council meeting -, it won't take much in terms of deviation from Putins plans as communicated to his lieutenants before his own position becomes untenable. And that can't come soon enough because at the moment that is the only way forward that is still left to us without major bloodshed.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
    - gunshai 5y ago
      I really hope it is true, that internal support is wavering. I have a tendency to believe our western media's over expression of news stories that make it look like the Russian forces are having a hard time. I can't place my finger on it (maybe I just am afraid of the worst) that we need to be told things are worse for the "enemy" than they really are to avoid sentiment that causes WW3. The spark has been lit in my eyes.
      - jacquesm 5y ago
        > I really hope it is true, that internal support is wavering. Me too, here is the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9A-u8EoWcI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9A-u8EoWcI > I have a tendency to believe our western media's over expression of news stories that make it look like the Russian forces are having a hard time. Well, they are certainly not having an easy time, casualties are mounting, some troop transports have crashed, the most reliable estimates about casualties on the Russian side that I've seen are now approaching 1,000, which if true would be extremely high already. But wars aren't typically won or lost in a day and Russia has far more resources than the Ukraine has. But indirectly, whether Putin wants it or not he's already fighting the West. > I can't place my finger on it (maybe I just am afraid of the worst) that we need to be told things are worse for the "enemy" than they really are to avoid sentiment that causes WW3. What you and I are told doesn't really matter. What matters is: (1) what happens in Putins inner circle (2) what happens in the security council (3) what happens in the Whitehouse That's where the decisions are made. Ukraine is going to do what they can but they are only able to hold out for so long. > The spark has been lit in my eyes. You probably meant the fuse, but yes, it has been lit.
  - bnralt 5y ago
    Indeed. We're on the third day of the invasion now. I'm confused by the amount of people, including many in the media, saying that things are going poorly for Russia because they didn't capture the capital city in the first two days of the war.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
    - jacquesm 5y ago
      It all depends on what Putin told his cronies. If the story was that they would be welcomed with open arms and instead they're welcomed with live ammo, functional AA and anti-tank weapons then that is a serious setback already, if the story was that it would be over by Friday night because they'd have control of aiports, media and the capital then clearly they have failed. Putin's credibility is what is at stake here, not the absolute speed of the invasion. The double crossing at the negotiation table last week had only a few hours of shelf life, that gave them an advantage but that has already been eroded. The supply lines are quite long and the roads leading South are littered with abandoned columns of Russian vehicles. Already Chechen troops have been put into play. My guess is that even though in an absolute sense this is developing very fast that on a relative scale it failed on several key objectives and that those failures are starting to add up.
    - pbourke 5y ago
      At the very least, Russia does not yet have air superiority and seems to have made some huge tactical blunders around attacking the airports. They lost 2 IL-76 transports yesterday which seems indicative of things going off the rails.
      - jacquesm 5y ago
        > They lost 2 IL-76 transports yesterday Inbound troop transports too, not cargo from what I read.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
sillysaurusx 5y ago
There are a few reasons I say this. At first, I wasn't sure whether it was just propaganda or reality. The reality is, Russia has failed to take any objectives. It does take time to move through urban centers -- but that's exactly the wrong thing to do. The correct decision would be to destroy Ukraine's air force, and then move in. That didn't happen. So when the Russians moved in, they discovered that their supply lines were extraordinarily vulnerable. There are several videos circulating of Russian convoys being out of gas. Again, I was suspicious it was propaganda. What changed my mind is the fact that even Ukraine's internet is still up. Not only is Russia failing to take objectives, but they're failing to even damage Ukrainian infrastructure. Combine that with a Ukrainian leader who is a hero (in the classic Greek sense), and Putin is facing a stiff headwind. It's too early to tell. The next several days will be key. But it no longer feels impossible for Ukraine to win -- which implies that Russia would therefore be in the process of losing. Some references: https://twitter.com/IntuitMachine/status/1497328895577796618 https://twitter.com/IntuitMachine/status/1497328895577796618 A column of destroyed Russian vehicles https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1497304143836454921 https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/14973041438364549... An analysis of why victory isn't out of the question
- zo1 5y ago
  That all assumes he's trying to invade and take over Ukraine, which I don't think is the case at all. Hence why they're not destroying the air force, internet and other civilian infrastructure.
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    That's backwards.
  - marcosdumay 5y ago
    Well... If he is not trying to invade Ukraine, what is he trying to do?
    - lowkey 5y ago
      One hypothesis making the rounds on Twitter is that Putin’s bombing campaign was targeting US funded biolabs in Ukraine [0][1] which the Russians have previously complained about [2] [0] https://twitter.com/Manifestor4/status/1497162095762288672/photo/1 https://twitter.com/Manifestor4/status/1497162095762288672/p... [1] https://twitter.com/jqkennedy17/status/1496793895040008192/photo/1 https://twitter.com/jqkennedy17/status/1496793895040008192/p... [2] https://www.newsweek.com/russia-china-nikolai-patrushev-vladimir-putin-biological-weapons-1581896 https://www.newsweek.com/russia-china-nikolai-patrushev-vlad...
marcosdumay 5y ago
There is a large amount of people that believe that Russia can't keep the war mobilization for a long time, for economical and political reasons. If that is the case, Ukraine is on the road to prevail. Personally I don't know the region to get to form my own opinion. Does Russia has any powerful separatist movement? Can public opinion impact the government? Can the west actually harm the Puttin supporting elite enough to divide them? Those are all relevant and I don't know the anwser to any of them.

JumpCrisscross 5y ago

> but by what measure is he losing the war? He isn’t losing, but his strategy clearly failed. He attempted blitzkrieg. Paris fell without resistance [1]. Kiev’s will remains unbroken. Furthermore, Putin has failed to achieve air superiority. He’s bogged down in urban warfare. All of which gives the West time to grow a pair. [1] https://judymccarver.com/2017/07/a-timeline-of-nazi-occupied-paris-june-14-1940-to-august-21-1944.html https://judymccarver.com/2017/07/a-timeline-of-nazi-occupied...

abernard1 5y ago
Here's an infographic that shows the timeline of the German blitzkrieg vs this [1]. By any measure, this is one of the fastest and most aggressive sieges of all time. It is comparable to the speed of Desert Storm or Iraq, and those were mainly driven by air power. The land troops needed to drive straight in desert, not in a combination of urban hills in winter. I've been watching this, and frankly given the high number (>dozen) of verifiably false claims made by Ukraine, it would not surprise me if they are losing badly. In our hyperconnected world, we forget how "fast" things seemed to people without the internet. [1] https://twitter.com/bazaarofwar/status/1497408494995218432 https://twitter.com/bazaarofwar/status/1497408494995218432
- SamoyedFurFluff 5y ago
  > I've been watching this, and frankly given the high number (>dozen) of verifiably false claims made by Ukraine Would you be willing (for the education of myself at least) express some of the more egregious false claims? I am a layman in this stuff so I just go with what media has to say, so I’m curious what I a layman am likely misinformed about.
- sillysaurusx 5y ago
  I see that Russia has carved out a nice straight line. A very thin line. That line carries their supplies. You're right that things move fast. Gas runs out fast too, when you're running your tanks 24/7. Sure would be a shame if Ukraine's air force blew up the fuel trucks that they're expecting to come refill them. And you're also right that Ukraine may be losing badly. But that was the default assumption. Everything I've seen in the last day has made me rethink. If the Russians can't even knock out Ukraine's internet, can they really take and hold Kiev?
  - aix1 5y ago
    > That line carries their supplies. Russia doesn't need this line to carry supplies along the border. They can just carry them on the other side of the border (through Russia or, if we're talking further west, through Belarus).
    - sillysaurusx 5y ago
      Kaboom: https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/t2d2a9/ukrainian_troops_defending_chernihiv_region_blew/ https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/t2d2a9/ukrainian... > Ukrainian troops defending Chernihiv region blew up 56 tanks of diesel fuel that were being transported by a Russian military convoy
- jacquesm 5y ago
  It's extremely fast and aggressive because it is desperate. Putin doesn't have any time and he knows it, the West was slow to formulate a response but it is getting there, sentiment is turning and before long there will be a different wind blowing. Internal support for this war is already wavering - see the video of the Russian security council meeting -, it won't take much in terms of deviation from Putins plans as communicated to his lieutenants before his own position becomes untenable. And that can't come soon enough because at the moment that is the only way forward that is still left to us without major bloodshed.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - gunshai 5y ago
    I really hope it is true, that internal support is wavering. I have a tendency to believe our western media's over expression of news stories that make it look like the Russian forces are having a hard time. I can't place my finger on it (maybe I just am afraid of the worst) that we need to be told things are worse for the "enemy" than they really are to avoid sentiment that causes WW3. The spark has been lit in my eyes.
    - jacquesm 5y ago
      > I really hope it is true, that internal support is wavering. Me too, here is the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9A-u8EoWcI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9A-u8EoWcI > I have a tendency to believe our western media's over expression of news stories that make it look like the Russian forces are having a hard time. Well, they are certainly not having an easy time, casualties are mounting, some troop transports have crashed, the most reliable estimates about casualties on the Russian side that I've seen are now approaching 1,000, which if true would be extremely high already. But wars aren't typically won or lost in a day and Russia has far more resources than the Ukraine has. But indirectly, whether Putin wants it or not he's already fighting the West. > I can't place my finger on it (maybe I just am afraid of the worst) that we need to be told things are worse for the "enemy" than they really are to avoid sentiment that causes WW3. What you and I are told doesn't really matter. What matters is: (1) what happens in Putins inner circle (2) what happens in the security council (3) what happens in the Whitehouse That's where the decisions are made. Ukraine is going to do what they can but they are only able to hold out for so long. > The spark has been lit in my eyes. You probably meant the fuse, but yes, it has been lit.
- bnralt 5y ago
  Indeed. We're on the third day of the invasion now. I'm confused by the amount of people, including many in the media, saying that things are going poorly for Russia because they didn't capture the capital city in the first two days of the war.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    It all depends on what Putin told his cronies. If the story was that they would be welcomed with open arms and instead they're welcomed with live ammo, functional AA and anti-tank weapons then that is a serious setback already, if the story was that it would be over by Friday night because they'd have control of aiports, media and the capital then clearly they have failed. Putin's credibility is what is at stake here, not the absolute speed of the invasion. The double crossing at the negotiation table last week had only a few hours of shelf life, that gave them an advantage but that has already been eroded. The supply lines are quite long and the roads leading South are littered with abandoned columns of Russian vehicles. Already Chechen troops have been put into play. My guess is that even though in an absolute sense this is developing very fast that on a relative scale it failed on several key objectives and that those failures are starting to add up.
  - pbourke 5y ago
    At the very least, Russia does not yet have air superiority and seems to have made some huge tactical blunders around attacking the airports. They lost 2 IL-76 transports yesterday which seems indicative of things going off the rails.
    - jacquesm 5y ago
      > They lost 2 IL-76 transports yesterday Inbound troop transports too, not cargo from what I read.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

sillysaurusx 5y ago

There are a few reasons I say this. At first, I wasn't sure whether it was just propaganda or reality. The reality is, Russia has failed to take any objectives. It does take time to move through urban centers -- but that's exactly the wrong thing to do. The correct decision would be to destroy Ukraine's air force, and then move in. That didn't happen. So when the Russians moved in, they discovered that their supply lines were extraordinarily vulnerable. There are several videos circulating of Russian convoys being out of gas. Again, I was suspicious it was propaganda. What changed my mind is the fact that even Ukraine's internet is still up. Not only is Russia failing to take objectives, but they're failing to even damage Ukrainian infrastructure. Combine that with a Ukrainian leader who is a hero (in the classic Greek sense), and Putin is facing a stiff headwind. It's too early to tell. The next several days will be key. But it no longer feels impossible for Ukraine to win -- which implies that Russia would therefore be in the process of losing. Some references: https://twitter.com/IntuitMachine/status/1497328895577796618 https://twitter.com/IntuitMachine/status/1497328895577796618 A column of destroyed Russian vehicles https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1497304143836454921 https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/14973041438364549... An analysis of why victory isn't out of the question

zo1 5y ago
That all assumes he's trying to invade and take over Ukraine, which I don't think is the case at all. Hence why they're not destroying the air force, internet and other civilian infrastructure.
- jacquesm 5y ago
  That's backwards.
- marcosdumay 5y ago
  Well... If he is not trying to invade Ukraine, what is he trying to do?
  - lowkey 5y ago
    One hypothesis making the rounds on Twitter is that Putin’s bombing campaign was targeting US funded biolabs in Ukraine [0][1] which the Russians have previously complained about [2] [0] https://twitter.com/Manifestor4/status/1497162095762288672/photo/1 https://twitter.com/Manifestor4/status/1497162095762288672/p... [1] https://twitter.com/jqkennedy17/status/1496793895040008192/photo/1 https://twitter.com/jqkennedy17/status/1496793895040008192/p... [2] https://www.newsweek.com/russia-china-nikolai-patrushev-vladimir-putin-biological-weapons-1581896 https://www.newsweek.com/russia-china-nikolai-patrushev-vlad...

marcosdumay 5y ago

There is a large amount of people that believe that Russia can't keep the war mobilization for a long time, for economical and political reasons. If that is the case, Ukraine is on the road to prevail. Personally I don't know the region to get to form my own opinion. Does Russia has any powerful separatist movement? Can public opinion impact the government? Can the west actually harm the Puttin supporting elite enough to divide them? Those are all relevant and I don't know the anwser to any of them.