5 ms·

It's interesting that he's losing the war, too. In the worst case, Putin will have to choose whether a tactical nuke to win the war is out of the question. A c

It's interesting that he's losing the war, too. In the worst case, Putin will have to choose whether a tactical nuke to win the war is out of the question. A crazier version of North Korea indeed.

chrononaut 5y ago
> It's interesting that he's losing the war, too. I would certainly like to see Ukraine prevail, but by what measure is he losing the war? Ukraine is a large country, and moving through urban centers takes time.
- JumpCrisscross 5y ago
  > but by what measure is he losing the war? He isn’t losing, but his strategy clearly failed. He attempted blitzkrieg. Paris fell without resistance [1]. Kiev’s will remains unbroken. Furthermore, Putin has failed to achieve air superiority. He’s bogged down in urban warfare. All of which gives the West time to grow a pair. [1] https://judymccarver.com/2017/07/a-timeline-of-nazi-occupied-paris-june-14-1940-to-august-21-1944.html https://judymccarver.com/2017/07/a-timeline-of-nazi-occupied...
  - abernard1 5y ago
    Here's an infographic that shows the timeline of the German blitzkrieg vs this [1]. By any measure, this is one of the fastest and most aggressive sieges of all time. It is comparable to the speed of Desert Storm or Iraq, and those were mainly driven by air power. The land troops needed to drive straight in desert, not in a combination of urban hills in winter. I've been watching this, and frankly given the high number (>dozen) of verifiably false claims made by Ukraine, it would not surprise me if they are losing badly. In our hyperconnected world, we forget how "fast" things seemed to people without the internet. [1] https://twitter.com/bazaarofwar/status/1497408494995218432 https://twitter.com/bazaarofwar/status/1497408494995218432
    - SamoyedFurFluff 5y ago
      > I've been watching this, and frankly given the high number (>dozen) of verifiably false claims made by Ukraine Would you be willing (for the education of myself at least) express some of the more egregious false claims? I am a layman in this stuff so I just go with what media has to say, so I’m curious what I a layman am likely misinformed about.
    - sillysaurusx 5y ago
      I see that Russia has carved out a nice straight line. A very thin line. That line carries their supplies. You're right that things move fast. Gas runs out fast too, when you're running your tanks 24/7. Sure would be a shame if Ukraine's air force blew up the fuel trucks that they're expecting to come refill them. And you're also right that Ukraine may be losing badly. But that was the default assumption. Everything I've seen in the last day has made me rethink. If the Russians can't even knock out Ukraine's internet, can they really take and hold Kiev?
      - aix1 5y ago
        > That line carries their supplies. Russia doesn't need this line to carry supplies along the border. They can just carry them on the other side of the border (through Russia or, if we're talking further west, through Belarus).
        sillysaurusx 5y ago
        Kaboom: https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/t2d2a9/ukrainian_troops_defending_chernihiv_region_blew/ https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/t2d2a9/ukrainian... > Ukrainian troops defending Chernihiv region blew up 56 tanks of diesel fuel that were being transported by a Russian military convoy
    - jacquesm 5y ago
      It's extremely fast and aggressive because it is desperate. Putin doesn't have any time and he knows it, the West was slow to formulate a response but it is getting there, sentiment is turning and before long there will be a different wind blowing. Internal support for this war is already wavering - see the video of the Russian security council meeting -, it won't take much in terms of deviation from Putins plans as communicated to his lieutenants before his own position becomes untenable. And that can't come soon enough because at the moment that is the only way forward that is still left to us without major bloodshed.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
- sillysaurusx 5y ago
  There are a few reasons I say this. At first, I wasn't sure whether it was just propaganda or reality. The reality is, Russia has failed to take any objectives. It does take time to move through urban centers -- but that's exactly the wrong thing to do. The correct decision would be to destroy Ukraine's air force, and then move in. That didn't happen. So when the Russians moved in, they discovered that their supply lines were extraordinarily vulnerable. There are several videos circulating of Russian convoys being out of gas. Again, I was suspicious it was propaganda. What changed my mind is the fact that even Ukraine's internet is still up. Not only is Russia failing to take objectives, but they're failing to even damage Ukrainian infrastructure. Combine that with a Ukrainian leader who is a hero (in the classic Greek sense), and Putin is facing a stiff headwind. It's too early to tell. The next several days will be key. But it no longer feels impossible for Ukraine to win -- which implies that Russia would therefore be in the process of losing. Some references: https://twitter.com/IntuitMachine/status/1497328895577796618 https://twitter.com/IntuitMachine/status/1497328895577796618 A column of destroyed Russian vehicles https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1497304143836454921 https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/14973041438364549... An analysis of why victory isn't out of the question
  - zo1 5y ago
    That all assumes he's trying to invade and take over Ukraine, which I don't think is the case at all. Hence why they're not destroying the air force, internet and other civilian infrastructure.
    - jacquesm 5y ago
      That's backwards.
    - marcosdumay 5y ago
      Well... If he is not trying to invade Ukraine, what is he trying to do?
      - lowkey 5y ago
        One hypothesis making the rounds on Twitter is that Putin’s bombing campaign was targeting US funded biolabs in Ukraine [0][1] which the Russians have previously complained about [2] [0] https://twitter.com/Manifestor4/status/1497162095762288672/photo/1 https://twitter.com/Manifestor4/status/1497162095762288672/p... [1] https://twitter.com/jqkennedy17/status/1496793895040008192/photo/1 https://twitter.com/jqkennedy17/status/1496793895040008192/p... [2] https://www.newsweek.com/russia-china-nikolai-patrushev-vladimir-putin-biological-weapons-1581896 https://www.newsweek.com/russia-china-nikolai-patrushev-vlad...
- marcosdumay 5y ago
  There is a large amount of people that believe that Russia can't keep the war mobilization for a long time, for economical and political reasons. If that is the case, Ukraine is on the road to prevail. Personally I don't know the region to get to form my own opinion. Does Russia has any powerful separatist movement? Can public opinion impact the government? Can the west actually harm the Puttin supporting elite enough to divide them? Those are all relevant and I don't know the anwser to any of them.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

It's interesting that he's losing the war, too. In the worst case, Putin will have to choose whether a tactical nuke to win the war is out of the question. A crazier version of North Korea indeed.

chrononaut 5y ago

> It's interesting that he's losing the war, too. I would certainly like to see Ukraine prevail, but by what measure is he losing the war? Ukraine is a large country, and moving through urban centers takes time.

JumpCrisscross 5y ago
> but by what measure is he losing the war? He isn’t losing, but his strategy clearly failed. He attempted blitzkrieg. Paris fell without resistance [1]. Kiev’s will remains unbroken. Furthermore, Putin has failed to achieve air superiority. He’s bogged down in urban warfare. All of which gives the West time to grow a pair. [1] https://judymccarver.com/2017/07/a-timeline-of-nazi-occupied-paris-june-14-1940-to-august-21-1944.html https://judymccarver.com/2017/07/a-timeline-of-nazi-occupied...
- abernard1 5y ago
  Here's an infographic that shows the timeline of the German blitzkrieg vs this [1]. By any measure, this is one of the fastest and most aggressive sieges of all time. It is comparable to the speed of Desert Storm or Iraq, and those were mainly driven by air power. The land troops needed to drive straight in desert, not in a combination of urban hills in winter. I've been watching this, and frankly given the high number (>dozen) of verifiably false claims made by Ukraine, it would not surprise me if they are losing badly. In our hyperconnected world, we forget how "fast" things seemed to people without the internet. [1] https://twitter.com/bazaarofwar/status/1497408494995218432 https://twitter.com/bazaarofwar/status/1497408494995218432
  - SamoyedFurFluff 5y ago
    > I've been watching this, and frankly given the high number (>dozen) of verifiably false claims made by Ukraine Would you be willing (for the education of myself at least) express some of the more egregious false claims? I am a layman in this stuff so I just go with what media has to say, so I’m curious what I a layman am likely misinformed about.
  - sillysaurusx 5y ago
    I see that Russia has carved out a nice straight line. A very thin line. That line carries their supplies. You're right that things move fast. Gas runs out fast too, when you're running your tanks 24/7. Sure would be a shame if Ukraine's air force blew up the fuel trucks that they're expecting to come refill them. And you're also right that Ukraine may be losing badly. But that was the default assumption. Everything I've seen in the last day has made me rethink. If the Russians can't even knock out Ukraine's internet, can they really take and hold Kiev?
    - aix1 5y ago
      > That line carries their supplies. Russia doesn't need this line to carry supplies along the border. They can just carry them on the other side of the border (through Russia or, if we're talking further west, through Belarus).
      - sillysaurusx 5y ago
        Kaboom: https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/t2d2a9/ukrainian_troops_defending_chernihiv_region_blew/ https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/t2d2a9/ukrainian... > Ukrainian troops defending Chernihiv region blew up 56 tanks of diesel fuel that were being transported by a Russian military convoy
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    It's extremely fast and aggressive because it is desperate. Putin doesn't have any time and he knows it, the West was slow to formulate a response but it is getting there, sentiment is turning and before long there will be a different wind blowing. Internal support for this war is already wavering - see the video of the Russian security council meeting -, it won't take much in terms of deviation from Putins plans as communicated to his lieutenants before his own position becomes untenable. And that can't come soon enough because at the moment that is the only way forward that is still left to us without major bloodshed.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
sillysaurusx 5y ago
There are a few reasons I say this. At first, I wasn't sure whether it was just propaganda or reality. The reality is, Russia has failed to take any objectives. It does take time to move through urban centers -- but that's exactly the wrong thing to do. The correct decision would be to destroy Ukraine's air force, and then move in. That didn't happen. So when the Russians moved in, they discovered that their supply lines were extraordinarily vulnerable. There are several videos circulating of Russian convoys being out of gas. Again, I was suspicious it was propaganda. What changed my mind is the fact that even Ukraine's internet is still up. Not only is Russia failing to take objectives, but they're failing to even damage Ukrainian infrastructure. Combine that with a Ukrainian leader who is a hero (in the classic Greek sense), and Putin is facing a stiff headwind. It's too early to tell. The next several days will be key. But it no longer feels impossible for Ukraine to win -- which implies that Russia would therefore be in the process of losing. Some references: https://twitter.com/IntuitMachine/status/1497328895577796618 https://twitter.com/IntuitMachine/status/1497328895577796618 A column of destroyed Russian vehicles https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1497304143836454921 https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/14973041438364549... An analysis of why victory isn't out of the question
- zo1 5y ago
  That all assumes he's trying to invade and take over Ukraine, which I don't think is the case at all. Hence why they're not destroying the air force, internet and other civilian infrastructure.
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    That's backwards.
  - marcosdumay 5y ago
    Well... If he is not trying to invade Ukraine, what is he trying to do?
    - lowkey 5y ago
      One hypothesis making the rounds on Twitter is that Putin’s bombing campaign was targeting US funded biolabs in Ukraine [0][1] which the Russians have previously complained about [2] [0] https://twitter.com/Manifestor4/status/1497162095762288672/photo/1 https://twitter.com/Manifestor4/status/1497162095762288672/p... [1] https://twitter.com/jqkennedy17/status/1496793895040008192/photo/1 https://twitter.com/jqkennedy17/status/1496793895040008192/p... [2] https://www.newsweek.com/russia-china-nikolai-patrushev-vladimir-putin-biological-weapons-1581896 https://www.newsweek.com/russia-china-nikolai-patrushev-vlad...
marcosdumay 5y ago
There is a large amount of people that believe that Russia can't keep the war mobilization for a long time, for economical and political reasons. If that is the case, Ukraine is on the road to prevail. Personally I don't know the region to get to form my own opinion. Does Russia has any powerful separatist movement? Can public opinion impact the government? Can the west actually harm the Puttin supporting elite enough to divide them? Those are all relevant and I don't know the anwser to any of them.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]