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> in 2022 sanctions are ... effectively meaningless as most capable, observant countries have managed to sidestep in part or in whole the once dominant US hegem
by aluminum96 5y ago
> in 2022 sanctions are ... effectively meaningless as most capable, observant countries have managed to sidestep in part or in whole the once dominant US hegemony
This is only true to the extent that the US unilaterally imposes sanctions. The proposed sanctions involving SWIFT are multilateral, with the support of the entire EU. That's around double the economic power of the US alone, and roughly half of the entire world's GDP. Being sanctioned by half of the global economy (more, if Asian democracies participate) is very punishing indeed.
- legalcorrection 5y agoThe EU would only go along with this because the US has them by the proverbial balls. European militaries are a joke and there is no domestic political support for building them up.
- isodev 5y agoYou are assuming the US is leading the effort, which is not the case. Also EU and US are partners and allies and so mutual support is expected.
- Kina 5y agoAmerica represents 40% of NATO forces. America guarantees the physical security of Europe in consultation with the governments of these nations, but there is an inherent power imbalance here.
- thomasahle 5y agoIn this particular conflict, the stakes for the EU is much higher than for the US. Sure, the US is historically (recent) more happy to go into conflicts around the world, but this is a conflict bordering many EU states. The Baltics, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania definitely aren't happy seeing Putin on their doorsteps.
- m2fkxy 5y agoA reminder that two of Western Europe's militaries are nuclear, which hardly makes them "a joke". You seem to be projecting the state of Germany's military to all European forces, which is... questionable.
- Mountain_Skies 5y agoThe nuclear arsenals of France and the UK are a bit meager relative to Russia and the US. That doesn't mean that they can't inflict a good bit of damage but MAD isn't in play with them unless the US is backing them up with its own nuclear arsenal.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- ascar 5y agoA combined amount of about 500 nuclear warheads sounds like enough for mutual assured destruction or even nuclear winter, no? That's enough to send two warheads to every single city with over 100k population in Russia and then there would be the Russian retaliation...
- m2fkxy 5y agoFrench (and probably British, although I know it less) doctrine is not MAD - it is to incur "unacceptable damages" to an offender. And 500-ish combined warheads sure sounds like it can achieve that.
- aluminum96 5y agoKeep in mind that most modern nuclear warheads are MIRV weapons, which dramatically amplifies the scope of the damage. These aren't Truman's nukes anymore.
- brimble 5y agoThe EU collectively outclasses every likely regional aggressor or likely regional coalition, and can project power better than any but a handful of other states (most of which are unproven against that challenge). Throw in Britain and only the US—which is in a mutual defense pact with several EU states—is clearly ahead of them. How's that "a joke"?
- legalcorrection 5y agoEuropean countries could barely sustain bombing runs during the Libya intervention. They struggled to consistently field single digit number of planes at the same time.
- nimbius 5y agothis is an excellent point, one i hadnt considered. SPFS only has 23 banks connected to it as of 2020, so if its to be an alternative Russia would have to consider it as an alterative of last resort. just how strong is it? the consternation im still faced with is "with the support of the entire EU." It may be difficult to secure a resounding vote with the bemoaned sword of Damocles. much heating fuel comes from Russia in the dead of winter. still other HN posters make a great point (and in other posts too) that every time SWIFT is disconnected, it popularizes alternate markets at the expense of US and EU interest. certainly a stronger SPFS must be taken into account.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- krzyk 5y agoWinter is coming to an end here. So lack of gas would hit industry more than home heating.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- imwillofficial 5y agoYeah, China isn’t going to side with the US/EU, and the rest of the Asian countries are too small to matter, including Japan/Korea. In fact, China has stepped up their efforts to aid Russia. The next few weeks will be history in the making. Pay attention.
- krzyk 5y agoIndia are far from small, bu they did not condemn Russia.
- imwillofficial 5y agoYeah I actually have no idea where India stands geopolitically and I had totally forgotten their considerable impact. I wonder how their government views these events?
- morelisp 5y agoThey did not condemn it but they also did not signal support like China did - I suspect Modi expected Putin to stop at Donbas and sees his best option right now as a ceasefire, which is what he's openly asked for as well. Unlike Russia's allies other than China, India cannot afford to be shut out of the US and supported by Russia, and unlike China, Europe and the US can impose fairly strict sanctions on India in the short-term.
- imwillofficial 5y agoAre Russia and India tight?
- kevin_b_er 5y agoUnknown but India and China are most definitely not tight