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I respect the difference of opinion but it's hard not to think Mearsheimer has been proven wrong about Putin's motivations by this invasion. It's basically inco
by jolux 5y ago
I respect the difference of opinion but it's hard not to think Mearsheimer has been proven wrong about Putin's motivations by this invasion. It's basically inconceivable that the full-scale invasion of Ukraine is really in Russia's best interests. At this point it's liable to destroy their economy and encourage the remaining non-NATO states that border them to join NATO. It has solidified and reinvigorated opposition to Russian interests in the West. As of now it looks like a blunder.
edit: to say nothing as well of the anti-war protests that are happening in the streets of Moscow and across Russia. If they continue and grow they will pose a risk to regime stability.
- pydry 5y agoPutin is unlikely to be trying to occupy all of Ukraine. The sheer cost of getting bogged down in an insurgency he couldnt possibly win suggests he's going to take an option which plays to his strengths instead. More likely he will try to cleave off strategically important territory with Russian majorities (forming a land bridge to crimea, maybe all the way to transnistria) and leave Kyiv having extracted a promise to remain unarmed, "neutral" and providing no aid to insurgencies or face another bloody assault.
- throwrqX 5y agoI'm not sure why you would think they would leave Kyiv alone when they're fighting there right at this very moment. It's pretty clear Putin aims to replace the government in Ukraine with his own puppet regime and then go along his way similar to how Belarus is, it remains unclear what will happen with western Ukraine, whether they invade "pacify" it and or just split Ukraine into two.
- pydry 5y agoThey're obviously not leaving Kyiv alone but that doesnt mean that they want to occupy it and root out a protracted insurgency.
- throwrqX 5y agoWell what would happen when they leave? I doubt the Ukrainians there (who are very much pro western) are just going to sit on their hands and twiddle their thumbs.
- pydry 5y agoI'm assuming they'll leave after negotiating a very one sided deal with a panicked government on the verge of total collapse. Theyre already offering to negotiate, but now theyre demanding total demilitarization.
- throwrqX 5y agoThey can negotiate deals all they want but the moment the Russians leave the insurgency will start again, and given that aside from eastern Ukraine most of the population is pro-west, I can imagine it will have plenty of popular support.
- jolux 5y agoI do wonder why they captured Chernobyl and are fighting their way to Kyiv as we speak, then.
- pydry 5y agoLeverage, I think. He can extract a lot of concessions in exchange for Kiev. I suspect Russia would trade it happily for the Ukrainian coast, which is strategically more valuable and has a plurality of ethnic Russians. Also they probably want to destroy/capture military central command.
- zx85wes 5y agoI think he thinks he has nothing to lose at this point. The EU is looking for alternate suppliers for gas, and when that's in place the sanctions noose will be fully tightened. The only thing he can do to the EU is triggering a huge refugee crisis by terrorising the local population. Excluding Crimea/Luhansk/Donetsk 38 million people live in Ukraine. The cost to the EU would be huge.
- Findecanor 5y agoEasy target near the border, and a symbolic target that people know about.
- pvaldes 5y agoI assume that both parts would want Chernobyl out of this war and remaining stable. In principle.
- muzika 5y agoKyiv was originally the capital of the Russia. They want it back. Chernobyl was just along the path to Kyiv.
- rightbyte 5y agoUkraine might very well be split in East and West Ukraine along the river. This war feels way too ambitious for just the separatists' land claims.
- nly 5y agoHis plan is to basically topple the Ukraine government and replace it with something Russian leaning, leaving the Ukraine a zombie state Direct occupation would be dumb. We live in a century of illusions
- yucky 5y ago>His plan is to basically topple the Ukraine government and replace it with something Russian leaning Essentially undoing the 2013 coup (or whatever we call it in the US)?
- Jerry2 5y ago>Mearsheimer has been proven wrong Everything that Mearsheimer stated would happen to Ukraine has now come to pass. He predicted it perfectly 7 years ago. He was not wrong. Neocons and Liberal Imperialists, as he calls the "war party", have now sacrificed Ukraine and left them to be massacred by advancing Russians. If you want to debate any of his arguments, please do so.
- vore 5y agoI think one of the central theses of his argument is that NATO is actively expanding to antagonize Russia, rather than a passive expansion due to the Baltic states falling out of the post-Soviet sphere of influence taking advantage of NATO's open door policy: this is not a far-fetched assumption, given the relative prosperity of Western European countries compared to their Eastern European counterparts. If you accept the latter rather than the former, I think it's hard to lay the blame on the West for simply having a defense alliance that sovereign states chose to join -- unless you would argue that NATO should simply not exist.
- jolux 5y agoNATO is a defensive alliance against Russia. What the invasion of Ukraine has done is proved that the states that chose to join NATO in the decades since the end of the Cold War made the right decision.
- jacquesm 5y ago> NATO is a defensive alliance against Russia. Strictly speaking that isn't true.
- skissane 5y agoNATO was founded as a defensive alliance against the Soviet Union, and the Russian Federation is recognised as the Soviet Union’s legal successor. That doesn’t justify Russia’s action - you aren’t justified in invading your neighbour over the mere inchoate possibility they might join a potentially hostile military alliance. (Ukraine still hasn’t joined NATO, and there is no evidence they were likely to be accepted as a NATO member in the near future.)
- gukov 5y agoWhat this is doing is permanently aligning Russia with China. This is Putin’s guarantee to China that they’re their forever trading partner and will never look West, at least any time soon.
- raxxorrax 5y agoIt would have been not viable for Russia if it could expect further economic sanctions, but most of those were already in place and there was less incentive to not invade. They might install a new government and will be in a more influential position. Dependency on Russia will cause other states to continue cooperation.
- Pyramus 5y agoWatched the video and came to the same conclusion - Mearsheimer argues that Putin would be "too smart", "rational" and "strategic" to invade Ukraine. He seems to be right in many other points, so go watch the video.
- solnyshok 5y agohe argues that constant confrontation with west would push Putin to embrace alliance with China. this seems to be happening now. and since China became big customer for russian gas, he can be more agressive with Ukraine, without risking all of his revenues. And, btw, all the announced sanctions, even personal against Putin, did not dare to touch gas pipe from Russia to Germany. It is also telling, that this gaspipe is kept working despite all military activity surrounding it.
- ksec 5y ago>It's basically inconceivable ...... Reminds me of; Putin will not insist on outrighouts terms, he will know his own weakness...... WHEN will the lesson be learned. WHEN will be the lesson be learned. How many more dictators must be wooed, appeased - good God, given immense privileges - before we learn? You cannot reason with a tiger, when your head is in its mouth! - Winston Churchill ( Gary Oldman ) in Darkest Hour
- dvt 5y agoI empathize with Churchill, but, unfortunately, nukes changed everything. A "game over" button completely alters the calculus.
- 7952 5y agoI think we are getting to a place where the use of nukes is so unthinkable that the deterrent effect is reduced. At which point maybe conventional war becomes more possible.
- klyrs 5y agoI'm entering my middle age, and I now expect a nuclear bombing to occur in my lifetime. I don't expect that it will evoke a scorched earth response, I expect it will happen to a country like Ukraine that nobody will stick up for. Politicians will tut and prevaricate and keep doomscrolling along with the rest of us. Unlike Hiroshima and Nagasaki, there will be no great reckoning. Economists will continue to play their chips to favorable positions, the Bad Boys League will continue to support eachothers' dictatorships, and trade will continue to diffuse through whatever palatable sanctions are instituted.
- avgcorrection 5y ago> It's basically inconceivable that the full-scale invasion of Ukraine is really in Russia's best interests. That’s exactly what Mearsheimer has been saying. He has said that it would be a terrible mistake for Russia to invade Ukraine.
- jolux 5y agoIn that case I’m not sure how that’s consistent with believing Putin is a rational actor.
- selfhoster11 5y agoWhy do you assume he's a rational actor? Any system that assumes rational actors is doomed to fail because humanity is not rational.
- jolux 5y agoThat’s one of the main tenets of the realist school of IR theory that Mearsheimer is a major proponent of. States act in their own rational self-interest.
- avgcorrection 5y agoHe’s also said that America shouldn’t have gotten involved in as many wars as they have. So clearly both the US and Russia have acted irrationally according to him.
- lobocinza 5y agoMaybe he was overconfident. Surely he is more risk prone than his western counterparts which are extremely risk averse but that does not make A less rational than B, it's a different dimension With the information we have at hand this invasion is nonsensical and a fiasco but Russia and China are information black boxes. The world is slowly opening eyes to China and Russia tyranny and now that the US left Iraq/Afghanistan and the West defeated Covid, the future is not so favorably for those that are cultural antagonists (democracy enemies). US economy is facing high inflation but there are rumors of China economy collapsing. It might be that Putin and Xi decided to escalate and show hands sooner than later. I wouldn't be surprised by China invading Taiwan in the next weeks. Specially after NATO committing assets to deal with an ongoing humanitarian crisis far from the Pacific. As the Fallout franchise summarize: war never changes.
- jusssi 5y agoThis is Putin saying, look what happens when you say no to me. Mostly addressed to his own subjects.
- me_me_me 5y agoNo amount of winter Olympics are going to tear label of warmonger of Russia for years to come. Putin is not a moron, he is not impulsive. If anything he is ruthless in his cold calculations. The only logical reason for this is desperation. Putin's popularity is dwindling and more and more people are vocal about it. Invasion of Ukraine is last ditch attempt to rally support from ussr sentiment of global power people. But this is quickly backfiring, in terms of PR it a disaster. Common people in Europe support Ukraine and the politicians probably will have easier time imposing restrictions as their own people will be ok paying the price. Remember that Putin's hope is that divided europe will not come together and will fail to react.
- KuhlMensch 5y agoNot to pile in, but I also found the video (via YT recommendations), and certainly think it holds up given present events.