7 ms·
Sorry, your hypothetical is just too far detached from reality to debate — you really think Russia in 2022 is remotely strong enough to sweep across Europe, and
by danso 5y ago
Sorry, your hypothetical is just too far detached from reality to debate — you really think Russia in 2022 is remotely strong enough to sweep across Europe, and the only thing stopping that ambition is fear of MAD? Huh?
> I don't know that NATO has the guts to give Putin that bloody nose.
Again…what? Based on NATO’s military inaction re: Ukraine, you’ve concluded that NATO will also do nothing if Russia were to actually attack NATO itself? The whole point of being in NATO is having the collective backing of its allied members.
- chewz 5y agoEvery Russian general is born with the ambition of driving his tanks to the Atlantic Ocean. And that won't be much different from what Tsar Alexander did in 1812/1813 with similiar meager resources. So yes, Putin probably is considering this scenario at least in his wet dreams... And it seems like largest country in Europe (by area), with 200 thousand strong army, tons od most sophisticated NATO weapons and 8 years of combat experience have collpased like a house of cards within 24 hours. Do you think Polish or German army will do any better? Or does Russia have better opinion of these armies? So, yes this is possible now... Thereotically... And history knows larger miscalculations...
- frumper 5y agoPoland and Germany are full NATO members. NATO was clear they would not deploy to Ukraine and that they will deploy to protect any NATO member.
- davorb 5y agoUkraine has 200k soldiers. But most of them are grunts with rifles. Russia has all kinds of equipment and combined arms. You can't really compare the two.
- thelittleone 5y agocertainly no comparison in a conventional war. Ukraine could be as costly to Putin as Afghanistan was to the US.
- dghughes 5y ago>Every Russian general is born with the ambition of driving his tanks to the Atlantic Ocean. France may not like that. They're not in NATO. But they have nuclear weapons.
- gjm11 5y agoFrance is in NATO.
- theptip 5y agoFrance is one of the founding countries in NATO. Indeed, NATO's progenitor was a bilateral treaty between France and the UK (the "Treaty of Dunkirk"). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_NATO https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_NATO
- SCAQTony 5y agoFrance is a member of NATO, they entered NATO in 1949 • Reference, The NATO website: https://www.nato.int/nato-welcome/index.html https://www.nato.int/nato-welcome/index.html
- jacobr1 5y agoFrance is part of NATO. They backed out of the integrated command structure in the 60's (but still remained an treaty member) and rejoined in 2009. I think they still reserve the right to not put their nuclear arsenal under allied command.
- Ratalala 5y agoFrance is a founding member.
- dragonwriter 5y ago> France may not like that. They're not in NATO. Yes, they are, and have been since NATO was founded. From 1966-2009 they did not participated in the Integrated Military Command Structure, despite remaining fully in the alliance. They still don't participate in the Nuclear Planning Council, and their troops are not put under permanent UN command in peacetime.
- heartbreak 5y agoIt’s a bit of a stretch to claim that Ukraine has collapsed. They’re massively outgunned, yet they’re still standing 24 hours later.
- trashtester 5y agoThe balance of power is similar to Poland in 1939. I expect it will take approx 2 weeks (1-3) for Putin to force the last regular Ukrainian army unit to lay down their arms, if their leaders don't surrender before that time.
- ClumsyPilot 5y ago> And it seems like largest country in Europe (by area), with 200 thousand strong army, tons od most sophisticated NATO weapons Where did you get this idea? Ukrain has only a tiny airforce, no modern air defences, and most heavy military hardware, from artillery to tanks, is cold war vintage. NATO never supplied it with modern fighter jets and missile systems, if it had, Russian helicopters would not be circling Kiev right now. "Every Russian general is born with the ambition of driving his tanks to the Atlantic Ocean" This is not helpfull, Russia has the idea that it should be able to do as it pleasesnl in its sphere of influence, but I never met anyone thinking it stretched to include anything past former eastern block borders.
- dudeinhawaii 5y agoThe (exaggerated) scenario is less of an attack but thought exercise on where the line for taking action lies. I went with belligerent actions over attack or small land grabs without casualties. Escalation from NATO let's say is "NATO declares war on Russia for violating sovereignty of Poland". Next? Will NATO liquidate Russian tank columns? As long as I've been alive, neither US nor NATO have ever actively engaged a nuclear state. I think stating "NATO reacts collectively" is kind of hand-waving the reality of engaging a nuclear super-power in any kind of military engagement. It's always been a handle-with-care situation. And no, I don't think Putin is going to try to conquer Europe (at least I hope he's not that mad). I just wonder where the line for action is and whether it's "touching NATO soil" as you imply or something much more vague and flexible once the prospect of actual war is real.
- sgjohnson 5y agoTurkey (a NATO member) “liquidated” a couple of Russian fighter jets when they violated Turkey’s airspace during their Syrian assault.[0] So it’s not a stretch to think that once a Russian tank would cross into Poland it would be met with immediate lethal force. [0] https://news.yahoo.com/downing-russia-jet-stab-back-putin-130913449.html https://news.yahoo.com/downing-russia-jet-stab-back-putin-13...
- dudeinhawaii 5y agoThanks for this, this is a good data point for NATO action. It's a little different in that it seems more accidental than intentional though.
- arisAlexis 5y agoWasn't a NATO action. Was a split second decision by Erdoga so he can play his power games.
- riku_iki 5y ago> “liquidated” a couple of Russian fighter jets It was one jet, and it wasn't fighter jet, but assault jet, it didn't carry any AA missiles and couldn't defend himself.