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EU and US will use every diplomatic and financial weapon against Russia, but they've long since decided Ukraine and the Ukrainian people aren't worth actual war
by causi 5y ago
EU and US will use every diplomatic and financial weapon against Russia, but they've long since decided Ukraine and the Ukrainian people aren't worth actual war over. That call was made in 2014 and stopping Russia then would've been easier than it would be now.
- whatshisface 5y agoIt's not clear whether every financial weapon will be used. For example, > The foreign ministers of the Baltic states called for Russia to be cut off from SWIFT, the global intermediary for banks' financial transactions. However, other EU member states were reluctant, both because European lenders held most of the nearly $30 billion in foreign bank's exposure to Russia and because China has developed an alternative to SWIFT called CIPS; a weaponisation of SWIFT would provide greater impetus to the development of CIPS which in turn would weaken SWIFT as well as the West's control over international finance.[262][263] Other leaders calling for Russia to be stopped from accessing SWIFT include Czech President Miloš Zeman[264] and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson.[265] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukrai...
- jandrese 5y agoThis is where diplomacy should shine. It's clear that Russia has been hardening against western sanctions for years now, and CIPS is a big piece of that. If NATO can convince China to also shut them out of CIPS at the same time we turn off SWIFT the Russian Oligarchs will start applying pressure to Putin.
- GrayShade 5y agoThey won't. They want Russian support when they invade Taiwan.
- newuser94303 5y agoThey don't need Russian support to attack Taiwan and Russian economic support is meaningless. They won't do it because there is no incentive to. The US has to bribe them. Think of China like an evil corporation. They won't do anything except for their own best interests. Like Facebook with nukes.
- stevehawk 5y agoRussian support won't come in the form of money or weapons. It'll come in the form of shutting off gas lines to the EU or invading the next set of non NATO countries in the EU, forcing the major military powers of the EU and NA to decide between protecting Europe or protecting Taiwan.
- loufe 5y agoI don't think adding the tag of "evil" in front of corporation is necessary or helpful. Corporations are selfish and aggressive enough already. Nothing about China's geopolitical plotting is anymore evil than the US or Russia, regardless of what ideological non-sense you use to justify any corner.
- onlyrealcuzzo 5y agoChina can't invade Taiwan without Taiwan blowing up the Three Gorges Dam and wiping out 1/4th of China's population
- AnimalMuppet 5y agoI doubt that's going to happen. China has refused to even call this an invasion, and has said that it's the West's fault.
- nojs 5y agoSource?
- foxfluff 5y agoAll over the news if you do a search. First hits: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-rejects-calling-russia-move-invasion-urges-citizens-ukraine-stay-home-2022-02-24/ https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-rejects-calling-ru... https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/24/china-refuses-to-call-attack-on-ukraine-an-invasion-blames-us.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/24/china-refuses-to-call-attack...
- AnimalMuppet 5y agoThanks. In fairness to nojs, I tried to search for it to back up my claim, and couldn't find it again.
- Andrew_nenakhov 5y agoRussian oligarchs will not apply pressure to Putin. They are all accomplices now. All this politics theater of the past few days was to make everyone of notice show support for invasion, in public form. Lawmakers, Security council, oligarchs, senators, everyone. So they would know they won't be able to betray him and escape. They are all forced to make their bones.
- sbmthakur 5y agoYou need to convince Europeans before China. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/24/kyiv-furious-as-eu-wavers-on-banning-russia-from-swift-payment-system https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/24/kyiv-furious-a...
- maccolgan 5y agoWhy would China shut off Russia when it also faces the same adversaries from across the ocean? This is their moment prove CIPS.
- Terry_Roll 5y agoRussia and China have developed their own equivalent of SWIFT, so again this is a sanction which will benefit Russia just like the oil price going up will benefit them because Russia has the largest oil reserves in the world. Plus with Chernobyl, some of the fuel rods may well be weapons grade still, and Chernobyl almost bankrupted Russia, it certainly helped break up the Soviet Union according to Gorbachev, its also on the border with Belarus who are aligned with Russia, and uranium fuel rods are not cheap to make, it takes tonnes of Uranium, so grabbing Chernobyl would seem sensible. So at this stage, I'm now thinking Russia is the next country to get a massive improvement in quality of life and infrastructure, a bit like we have seen with China over the last decade or so, whilst all the while the West is kept in the slow lane for other less developed countries to catch up.
- elliekelly 5y agoCIPS is not an "equivalent of SWIFT" by a long shot. It definitely helps soften the blow of any potential SWIFT sanctions but that doesn't mean losing SWIFT access would be a non-issue.
- saiya-jin 5y ago> I'm now thinking Russia is the next country to get a massive improvement in quality of life and infrastructure That's practically impossible. They could have done in in last 30 years, but almost all the profit went to pockets of Kremlin's pyramid of power and tunneled to tax havens across the world. Corruption, laziness, incompetence of key people, and in some form also in the rest of nation will effectively prevent that.
- Terry_Roll 5y agoBut during the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Russian govt gave shares in all the state assets, as the rouble collapsed, but the shelves were bare, everyone with anything decent only wanted dollar, like you see in African countries, and so the rich with international financial connections offered to buy the shares awarded to the Russian public in exchange for dollars in order to buy food. Do this en masse and you have your present day Russian oligarchs. All Putin & the KGB have been trying to do since is rebuild Russia whilst getting people adjusted to capitalism. Many people in remote rural areas still wish for the old communist days where there was much more state support like with better infrastructure thats now crumbling away. Communism started in Russia in 1917, its an ideology just like there is a new AI ideology in play right now, but these ideologies are/were designed to further human advancement, and even the Chinese recognise, Capitalism has so far one out, at least the illusion of Capitalism if you ignore how search engines can control a countries economy. All ideologies have their faults, but some are also dependent on technology, so I dont know if an AI communism/capitalism mix could be seen in the future? So look at teh buildings that are being destroyed, are these happening to make way for a new supermarket, shopping mall, road interchange once the building starts? Just look at what happened in Iraq, private companies stormed in there and capitalism was in full flow because of Uncle Sam, however I suspect its Mother Russia now looking to splash the cash which means likely many Russian firms getting a govt handout disguised as war disguises these things. Revisit this comment in ten years time and see if your opinion changes!
- inglor_cz 5y agoNot even every financial weapon. EU isn't united on kicking Russia out of SWIFT.
- cure 5y agoThat was yesterday. Today, the situation is evolving quickly.
- kfarr 5y agoThat was swift :P https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/t0epur/boris_johnson_pushes_for_russia_to_be_ejected/ https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/t0epur/boris_joh...
- csee 5y agoNo it's not, Biden confirmed it now.
- saiya-jin 5y agoNot sure why Germany has such a weak stance against Russia now. It can't be just because of oil and gas imports for sure. It must look supremely weak to any strongman like Putin, encouraging him to push for more since nobody ever gave a fuck about some political condemnations or blocking few bureaucrats, you don't store billions you stole on your name in the banks.
- ajuc 5y agoBasically Germany and Italy don't want it. Cause of big financial investment in Russian businesses. Germany especially should really do some soul-searching. They are enabling Putin for the last few decades.
- xenocratus 5y ago> Cause of big financial investment in Russian businesses And because blocking them from some technology that the West has monopoly over will invite a strong(er) drive from the likes of China and Russia to create a competitor and weaken the West's power in that field.
- somesortofthing 5y agoThe EU and US have made serious mistakes in the process but it's hard to disagree with that conclusion. Either you have a fairly short(By necessity, since Ukraine is going to remain crossable with armor for maybe a couple more weeks before the entire country turns into a giant bog in spring) proxy war in Ukraine that kills a few thousand and transfers the territory from one bickering cabal of oligarchs to another or you risk global nuclear war with boots-on-the-ground intervention. Putin has been pretty clear that he'll use nukes in the event of a full NATO intervention.
- trzy 5y agoI would treat threats of nuclear weapons as bluffs. He doesn’t want to perish in an inferno and a first strike is hard to justify over a mere military humiliation on foreign soil. Rather more likely are cyber attacks on infrastructure here in the US and attacks on US bases in Europe or abroad.
- Phelinofist 5y agoAnd if he is not bluffing? :)
- Aeolun 5y agoThat's not an option to consider. If you do that, they'll be able to do anything they want. Which is exactly what they're counting on.
- robbedpeter 5y ago
- qbasic_forever 5y agoUntil the US puts sanctions on Russia's oil/gas and doesn't buy it, then no not every financial or diplomatic weapon is being used. Right now it seems the US is reluctant to do this: https://twitter.com/business/status/1496861082907906048 https://twitter.com/business/status/1496861082907906048
- tommoor 5y agoSame for UK – sanctions on russian companies but we keep the gas and thus money flowing back to Russia.
- kblev 5y agoIt's good that Iraq and Afghanistan was worth a war, just Ukraine not so much
- hutzlibu 5y agoIt is a bit easier fighting caveman jihadist and third class dictators with outdated military, than a nuclear superpower.
- MisterTea 5y ago> superpower. Yup. Because when I think of superpower I think of an economy that is barely passing Italy's.
- hutzlibu 5y agoPower comes in many shapes. Russia does not have a good economy, but a strong military and nukes.
- ejb999 5y agoand more importantly, the willingness to sacrifice millions of their own people if they need to. They have done it before, and if needed, I have no doubt they will do it again.
- pirate787 5y agoThey have 2 million men under arms and the world's largest stockpile of nuclear weapons.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- terr-dav 5y agoThis is sarcasm, right? (the part about Iraq and Afghanistan)
- odiroot 5y ago> EU and US will use every diplomatic and financial weapon against Russia [Citation needed] The softening of sanctions has arrived already.