5 ms·

If the virus hadn’t mutated from alpha to delta, and then to omega — each of those could have achieved essentially hersd immunity. Unfortunately it mutated befo

If the virus hadn’t mutated from alpha to delta, and then to omega — each of those could have achieved essentially hersd immunity. Unfortunately it mutated before we could tamp it down everywhere. That doesn’t make the people who said vaccines could end the mess wrong, just means we all got unlucky.

_0ffh 5y ago
Even given (for the sake of argument) that there was cause for hope at some point, that's not an excuse to cling to that hope indefinitely, especially when it demands the violation of other people's bodily autonomy. That hope is dead, and people must let it rest.
- mikeyouse 5y ago
  More Americans died in the last month from Covid than died in the Vietnam war… to me, that’s an unacceptable toll. I get that people differ in that opinion but it can’t be too surprising that people really aren’t okay with that level of sustained death as the “end game” of this.
  - _0ffh 5y ago
    It won't keep up like this. It is inevitable that sooner or later everybody will have been infected at least once. Covid-19 will have become just another seasonal respiratory infection that everyone catches for the first time when they're young and the few bad cases will almost all be successfully handled with medicine. Some people may keep getting yearly vaccinations, like so many do with influenza. Most probably won't. Life will largely return to what it was, except for what our experiences during this time has done to our outlook in life.
    - hallway_monitor 5y ago
      This is the conclusion I have come to for myself. I got the initial COVID vaccine but the flu vaccine doesn't seem worth it for me and I won't be getting any boosters or further vaccines.
      - mikeyouse 5y ago
        It's astonishing how bad people's risk assessments are.
        mattbuilds 5y ago
        It really is amazing, especially from a group that likes to think of themselves as scientific. Full of bias and cherry picking data.
        ben_w 5y ago
        Perhaps I’m getting old and cynical, but… no, wait, I was always cynical. I remember thinking much the same two decades ago when it was risk of death from terrorists vs bees.
        dekhn 5y ago
        have you worked with medical biologists? Bias and cherry picking there, too.
      - mullingitover 5y ago
        > but the flu vaccine doesn't seem worth it for me Such a confusing, yet common stance. The flu vaccine is free, risk is essentially nil, and it reduces your chance of death across the board[1]: > At a median follow‐up duration of 19.5 months, influenza vaccine was associated with a lower risk of all‐cause mortality (RR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.60–0.93 [P=0.01]), cardiovascular mortality (RR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.80–0.84 [P<0.001]), and major adverse cardiovascular events (RR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.80–0.94 [P<0.001]) compared with control. The use of the influenza vaccine was not associated with a statistically significant reduction of myocardial infarction (RR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.49–1.09 [P=0.12]) compared with control. It's the biggest no-brainer since seatbelts. [1] https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/JAHA.120.019636 https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/JAHA.120.019636
        Ntrails 5y ago
        > It's the biggest no-brainer since seatbelts. What if I told you I don't wear a seatbelt?
    - dekhn 5y ago
      agree 100% The one part you left out is that there is a genetic component, so the first few ways were a form of selection against people who couldn't handle covid. It seems likely the the remaining population is much less susceptible to dying in future waves. Flu would have looked like this the first time around, except when it arose, people didn't fly around the world or even really move a few miles from their home most of the time, which acted as a natural way to reduce outbreaks.
austhrow743 5y ago
When they’re still saying it months after the condition has changed, yes it means they’re wrong.
- nojokes 5y ago
  What months? Months after omicron appearance? It has been here just about 2 months and boosters are still important because even though omicron is very fairly different from each previous variant we know, vaccine induced immunity still can recognize it after being boosted (it is related to antibody affinity if you want to know more). Most importantly, vaccine induced immunity still protects against severe disease that requires hospitalization. More importantly, if the herd immunity is the question - omicron and vaccination might provide very robust immune protection. Another thing to keep in mind - because omicron was so successful, it may have blocked the appearance of a new variant that is a derivative of it and the next similar variant that might appear that is neither some pre-omicron derivative nor close to omicron. Vaccination with the original variant is not a bad bet because it is most likely just in the middle of every possible derivation from it.

_0ffh 5y ago

Even given (for the sake of argument) that there was cause for hope at some point, that's not an excuse to cling to that hope indefinitely, especially when it demands the violation of other people's bodily autonomy. That hope is dead, and people must let it rest.

mikeyouse 5y ago
More Americans died in the last month from Covid than died in the Vietnam war… to me, that’s an unacceptable toll. I get that people differ in that opinion but it can’t be too surprising that people really aren’t okay with that level of sustained death as the “end game” of this.
- _0ffh 5y ago
  It won't keep up like this. It is inevitable that sooner or later everybody will have been infected at least once. Covid-19 will have become just another seasonal respiratory infection that everyone catches for the first time when they're young and the few bad cases will almost all be successfully handled with medicine. Some people may keep getting yearly vaccinations, like so many do with influenza. Most probably won't. Life will largely return to what it was, except for what our experiences during this time has done to our outlook in life.
  - hallway_monitor 5y ago
    This is the conclusion I have come to for myself. I got the initial COVID vaccine but the flu vaccine doesn't seem worth it for me and I won't be getting any boosters or further vaccines.
    - mikeyouse 5y ago
      It's astonishing how bad people's risk assessments are.
      - mattbuilds 5y ago
        It really is amazing, especially from a group that likes to think of themselves as scientific. Full of bias and cherry picking data.
        ben_w 5y ago
        Perhaps I’m getting old and cynical, but… no, wait, I was always cynical. I remember thinking much the same two decades ago when it was risk of death from terrorists vs bees.
        dekhn 5y ago
        have you worked with medical biologists? Bias and cherry picking there, too.
    - mullingitover 5y ago
      > but the flu vaccine doesn't seem worth it for me Such a confusing, yet common stance. The flu vaccine is free, risk is essentially nil, and it reduces your chance of death across the board[1]: > At a median follow‐up duration of 19.5 months, influenza vaccine was associated with a lower risk of all‐cause mortality (RR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.60–0.93 [P=0.01]), cardiovascular mortality (RR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.80–0.84 [P<0.001]), and major adverse cardiovascular events (RR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.80–0.94 [P<0.001]) compared with control. The use of the influenza vaccine was not associated with a statistically significant reduction of myocardial infarction (RR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.49–1.09 [P=0.12]) compared with control. It's the biggest no-brainer since seatbelts. [1] https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/JAHA.120.019636 https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/JAHA.120.019636
      - Ntrails 5y ago
        > It's the biggest no-brainer since seatbelts. What if I told you I don't wear a seatbelt?
  - dekhn 5y ago
    agree 100% The one part you left out is that there is a genetic component, so the first few ways were a form of selection against people who couldn't handle covid. It seems likely the the remaining population is much less susceptible to dying in future waves. Flu would have looked like this the first time around, except when it arose, people didn't fly around the world or even really move a few miles from their home most of the time, which acted as a natural way to reduce outbreaks.

austhrow743 5y ago

When they’re still saying it months after the condition has changed, yes it means they’re wrong.

nojokes 5y ago
What months? Months after omicron appearance? It has been here just about 2 months and boosters are still important because even though omicron is very fairly different from each previous variant we know, vaccine induced immunity still can recognize it after being boosted (it is related to antibody affinity if you want to know more). Most importantly, vaccine induced immunity still protects against severe disease that requires hospitalization. More importantly, if the herd immunity is the question - omicron and vaccination might provide very robust immune protection. Another thing to keep in mind - because omicron was so successful, it may have blocked the appearance of a new variant that is a derivative of it and the next similar variant that might appear that is neither some pre-omicron derivative nor close to omicron. Vaccination with the original variant is not a bad bet because it is most likely just in the middle of every possible derivation from it.