4 ms·

...and then what. What will they do when the rockets get faster, shinier, more erratic in flight...or any of the other things mentioned on this thread? I'm not

...and then what. What will they do when the rockets get faster, shinier, more erratic in flight...or any of the other things mentioned on this thread? I'm not going to pretend I have the solutions to the Arab Isreali conflict, but this is at best temporary. My best guess is the long term solution (if there is ever one attempted) will be more related to why people are motivated to launch rockets at their neighbours.

RobRivera 5y ago
welcome to the concept of Escalation Dominance in the field of arms tech.
RegnisGnaw 5y ago
These "advanced" rockets will be more costly, which means your more limited on how many you can afford to fire. Thus Israel can intercept these "advanced" rockets with other solutions: Iron Dome, Arrow 2, Arrow 3, and David's Sling. The Iron Beam is the low cost per intercept solution, meant to intercept cheap unguided ballistic rockets.
- jimnotgym 5y ago
  Other people on here have suggested that tin foil will do as protection, or metal polish for that matter. Im guessing this will make no difference in the number of rockets at all
  - nickff 5y ago
    Random commenters on HN are not smarter than the Palestinians nor the Israelis involved in this conflict. I am sure that 'tin foil' (by which I believe you mean aluminum foil) will not work.
    - awakeasleep 5y ago
      What you say is true but we dont know how much marketing fluff we’re dealing with in this press release, either.
      - weatherlite 5y ago
        It's not just Israel building laser interceptors, it's also the U.S. In fact the U.S has been researching this for decades. I find it hard to believe no one has thought of the aluminum foil measure, but I'm willing to entertain the idea since army people are army people.
  - nradov 5y ago
    Other people on here have no experience with high energy lasers. Thermal shock will burn right through the metal foil or polish. We're not talking about a toy laser pointer.
  - weatherlite 5y ago
    You must really wrap that foil hard for it not to fall off with the missile flying at Mach 4. They'd probably need to use a bunch of duck tape to secure the foil, and with inflation making duck tape more expensive it will hurt their economies. Win for Israel.
m4rtink 5y ago
IIRC (based on hard SF laser defece discussions) there is no perfect mirror, so pump enough MW/GW into it, even just for a short burst and the thing will start to melt or outright vaporize from the bit that it will always absorb. Then it won't be so shiny anymore, absorbing even more energy and so on, until it stops being a solid object. As for erratic flight paths - a physical object can't aim to match the beam steering capabilities of a group based stationary laser, given any realistic currently available propulsion or steering technology. It would need to do crazy high g & high energy manufacturing yet from the PoV of the laser its moving just a couple degrees if at all. As unlike a physical interceptor the laser beam moves at the speed of light and thud the point of aim can more more or less instantaneously.
- RegnisGnaw 5y ago
  Its more a range issue. Irom Beam has a like a 7 km or mile (I forgot) range. Whereas other like Arrow 2, Arrow 3, or David's Sling has like 100km+ range. Iron Beam is all about cost per interception.
  - LegitShady 5y ago
    at a 50x reduction in cost per interception than can probably afford to produce a lot more of them in the long run.
loceng 5y ago
The best initial solution I believe is for the world to protect Palestine from the rockets fired from the Israel side - that way any retaliations to the small group of people firing rockets at Israel don't kill civilians or damage their infrastructure; e.g. put an Iron Dome or better system on the Palestinian side.
- golemiprague 5y ago
nickff 5y ago
>" My best guess is the long term solution (if there is ever one attempted) will be more related to why people are motivated to launch rockets at their neighbours." The problem is that the Palestinians are a heterogeneous group. Even if the Palestinian government makes a 'peace' deal with the Israelis, other Palestinians opposed to the deal can 'break' it by shooting off a few cheap rockets. Further complicating the issue, there are outside parties (such as the Iranians) who have a vested interest in preventing a lasting peace (in order to preserve their influence both in Palestine and in Lebanon).
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- jimnotgym 5y ago
  > other Palestinians opposed to the deal can 'break' it Only if Isreal reacts by declaring the peace deal with one group dead because another group fired rockets. It takes two to tango, as they say. If a gunman from Canada fired into the USA, the USA is unlikely to consider it a declaration of war and start nuking Canada!
  - flyinglizard 5y ago
    There never been a common Palestinian leadership or universally accepted institutes, and this only became worse since 2006 Gaza withdrawal by Israel.
  - nickff 5y ago
    >"Only if Isreal reacts by declaring the peace deal with one group dead because another group fired rockets. It takes two to tango, as they say." This is problematic for a number of reasons. First, it could be that the Palestinian government was actually responsible for shooting off the rockets, but were scapegoating someone else for political reasons (the internal and external messaging are very different things, and it's hard to figure out the truth). Second, 'authority' is not unified in Palestine, and a government may be composed of groups which only agree on some policies, and have members have differing objectives and strategies. Overall, if the Palestinians fail to stop rocket and mortar attacks, the only logical response for Israel is to blame their government. If Canadians were attacking the USA repeatedly and it seemed likely that the attacks were being organized by a political party which was a member of the governing coalition, I think the USA would have no option but to blame the government.
2OEH8eoCRo0 5y ago
These rockets are low tech. They only get through because of sheer numbers. Using lasers makes it harder to overwhelm with numbers.
bawolff 5y ago
An arms race generally benefits the side with more money. > My best guess is the long term solution (if there is ever one attempted) will be more related to why people are motivated to launch rockets at their neighbours. There's been plenty of attempts to have peace conferences and what not. There's a wide gap between attempting and actually getting something to stick.
sharikous 5y ago
Almost all rocket attacks come from Gaza. The remaining ones are from Syria (actually Iranian Al Quds units stationed there) and Lebanon (the Palestinian Iranian-funded Hizbollah). The option is there to conquer and reoccupy Gaza. It would be terribly expensive in terms of human lives and the occupation will be very difficult to keep, but it would solve the problem of the rockets. Ditto for Lebanon and Syria. From the 2006 war, often considered a failure for Israel, there were nonetheless very very few rocket attacks from Lebanon. So defensive weapons could also be a perverse incentive, since they discourage military action that is more direct and more effective for the long term. It's a very difficult problem. People are motivated to launch rockets because of grievances and because they see an advantage to do so. Israel has rewarded these kinds of attacks more then one time (e.g. loosening the blockade on Gaza) and the world has become quite convinced with the Palestinian narrative. Israel's options are limited to defensive weapons (with a lot of problems long-term) and offensive ones (very expensive in terms of lives, government popularity, PR, etc..)
- littlestymaar 5y ago
  Or maybe stop starving and killing the children living in Gaza who will then make proud soldiers of the Hamas when they grow up, repeating the endless circle of violence? And maybe stop encouraging Qatar to fund Hamas[1]? Yes, you read that right, and the source is a reputable Israeli newspaper. Hamas is a really convenient opponent for the Israeli government: they are evil, corrupt and basically harmless, but they are a great excuse for everything else (“we are at war, stop asking questions”). [1]: https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/.premium-netanyahu-israel-mossad-chief-doha-qatar-continue-hamas-gaza-money-transfer-1.8564993 https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/.premium-netanyahu-...
  - LorenPechtel 5y ago
    Haaretz isn't a *reputable* Israeli newspaper. The children of Gaza die because Hamas wants that to happen. And look at the demographics of those "children"--most are 16 and 17. And the only one starving children of Gaza is Hamas.
flyinglizard 5y ago
There’s hardly an Israeli Arab conflict any more. Peace was achieved in large through force projection and mutual interests; these technologies are an important part of both.
LorenPechtel 5y ago
Which shows you're missing the fundamental problem. There can be no peace with the Palestinians because it's not the Palestinians that Israel is actually at war with in the first place. Rather, they are pawns of their backers--if you somehow make peace with a pawn another simply steps up. Any peace agreement that actually worked would have to be with those backers--and they have never even been at the negotiating table. Look at the conflicts of the world. Pawns don't get defeated. Most of the time the other side decides the situation isn't worth it and leaves, but in this case that's not an option because the other side has no possible retreat. Note that a pawn can lose it's backing which in effects promotes it to being a king--and kings can be defeated.
- raxxorrax 5y ago
  Additionally those backers are in power because of the conflict. Why would they want to end it? For their power to hold they need the animosity towards Israel.
namlem 5y ago
Hamas can't get rockets that nice.
chakhs 5y ago
people here consider israel an occupation power remnant from the past century, not a neighbour
weatherlite 5y ago
Iran doesn't want peace with Israel, Iran wants Israel dismantled as a Jewish state. There is no negotiating with this.

RobRivera 5y ago

welcome to the concept of Escalation Dominance in the field of arms tech.

RegnisGnaw 5y ago

These "advanced" rockets will be more costly, which means your more limited on how many you can afford to fire. Thus Israel can intercept these "advanced" rockets with other solutions: Iron Dome, Arrow 2, Arrow 3, and David's Sling. The Iron Beam is the low cost per intercept solution, meant to intercept cheap unguided ballistic rockets.

jimnotgym 5y ago
Other people on here have suggested that tin foil will do as protection, or metal polish for that matter. Im guessing this will make no difference in the number of rockets at all
- nickff 5y ago
  Random commenters on HN are not smarter than the Palestinians nor the Israelis involved in this conflict. I am sure that 'tin foil' (by which I believe you mean aluminum foil) will not work.
  - awakeasleep 5y ago
    What you say is true but we dont know how much marketing fluff we’re dealing with in this press release, either.
    - weatherlite 5y ago
      It's not just Israel building laser interceptors, it's also the U.S. In fact the U.S has been researching this for decades. I find it hard to believe no one has thought of the aluminum foil measure, but I'm willing to entertain the idea since army people are army people.
- nradov 5y ago
  Other people on here have no experience with high energy lasers. Thermal shock will burn right through the metal foil or polish. We're not talking about a toy laser pointer.
- weatherlite 5y ago
  You must really wrap that foil hard for it not to fall off with the missile flying at Mach 4. They'd probably need to use a bunch of duck tape to secure the foil, and with inflation making duck tape more expensive it will hurt their economies. Win for Israel.

m4rtink 5y ago

IIRC (based on hard SF laser defece discussions) there is no perfect mirror, so pump enough MW/GW into it, even just for a short burst and the thing will start to melt or outright vaporize from the bit that it will always absorb. Then it won't be so shiny anymore, absorbing even more energy and so on, until it stops being a solid object. As for erratic flight paths - a physical object can't aim to match the beam steering capabilities of a group based stationary laser, given any realistic currently available propulsion or steering technology. It would need to do crazy high g & high energy manufacturing yet from the PoV of the laser its moving just a couple degrees if at all. As unlike a physical interceptor the laser beam moves at the speed of light and thud the point of aim can more more or less instantaneously.

RegnisGnaw 5y ago
Its more a range issue. Irom Beam has a like a 7 km or mile (I forgot) range. Whereas other like Arrow 2, Arrow 3, or David's Sling has like 100km+ range. Iron Beam is all about cost per interception.
- LegitShady 5y ago
  at a 50x reduction in cost per interception than can probably afford to produce a lot more of them in the long run.

loceng 5y ago

The best initial solution I believe is for the world to protect Palestine from the rockets fired from the Israel side - that way any retaliations to the small group of people firing rockets at Israel don't kill civilians or damage their infrastructure; e.g. put an Iron Dome or better system on the Palestinian side.

golemiprague 5y ago

nickff 5y ago

>" My best guess is the long term solution (if there is ever one attempted) will be more related to why people are motivated to launch rockets at their neighbours." The problem is that the Palestinians are a heterogeneous group. Even if the Palestinian government makes a 'peace' deal with the Israelis, other Palestinians opposed to the deal can 'break' it by shooting off a few cheap rockets. Further complicating the issue, there are outside parties (such as the Iranians) who have a vested interest in preventing a lasting peace (in order to preserve their influence both in Palestine and in Lebanon).

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
jimnotgym 5y ago
> other Palestinians opposed to the deal can 'break' it Only if Isreal reacts by declaring the peace deal with one group dead because another group fired rockets. It takes two to tango, as they say. If a gunman from Canada fired into the USA, the USA is unlikely to consider it a declaration of war and start nuking Canada!
- flyinglizard 5y ago
  There never been a common Palestinian leadership or universally accepted institutes, and this only became worse since 2006 Gaza withdrawal by Israel.
- nickff 5y ago
  >"Only if Isreal reacts by declaring the peace deal with one group dead because another group fired rockets. It takes two to tango, as they say." This is problematic for a number of reasons. First, it could be that the Palestinian government was actually responsible for shooting off the rockets, but were scapegoating someone else for political reasons (the internal and external messaging are very different things, and it's hard to figure out the truth). Second, 'authority' is not unified in Palestine, and a government may be composed of groups which only agree on some policies, and have members have differing objectives and strategies. Overall, if the Palestinians fail to stop rocket and mortar attacks, the only logical response for Israel is to blame their government. If Canadians were attacking the USA repeatedly and it seemed likely that the attacks were being organized by a political party which was a member of the governing coalition, I think the USA would have no option but to blame the government.

2OEH8eoCRo0 5y ago

These rockets are low tech. They only get through because of sheer numbers. Using lasers makes it harder to overwhelm with numbers.

bawolff 5y ago

An arms race generally benefits the side with more money. > My best guess is the long term solution (if there is ever one attempted) will be more related to why people are motivated to launch rockets at their neighbours. There's been plenty of attempts to have peace conferences and what not. There's a wide gap between attempting and actually getting something to stick.

sharikous 5y ago

Almost all rocket attacks come from Gaza. The remaining ones are from Syria (actually Iranian Al Quds units stationed there) and Lebanon (the Palestinian Iranian-funded Hizbollah). The option is there to conquer and reoccupy Gaza. It would be terribly expensive in terms of human lives and the occupation will be very difficult to keep, but it would solve the problem of the rockets. Ditto for Lebanon and Syria. From the 2006 war, often considered a failure for Israel, there were nonetheless very very few rocket attacks from Lebanon. So defensive weapons could also be a perverse incentive, since they discourage military action that is more direct and more effective for the long term. It's a very difficult problem. People are motivated to launch rockets because of grievances and because they see an advantage to do so. Israel has rewarded these kinds of attacks more then one time (e.g. loosening the blockade on Gaza) and the world has become quite convinced with the Palestinian narrative. Israel's options are limited to defensive weapons (with a lot of problems long-term) and offensive ones (very expensive in terms of lives, government popularity, PR, etc..)

littlestymaar 5y ago
Or maybe stop starving and killing the children living in Gaza who will then make proud soldiers of the Hamas when they grow up, repeating the endless circle of violence? And maybe stop encouraging Qatar to fund Hamas[1]? Yes, you read that right, and the source is a reputable Israeli newspaper. Hamas is a really convenient opponent for the Israeli government: they are evil, corrupt and basically harmless, but they are a great excuse for everything else (“we are at war, stop asking questions”). [1]: https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/.premium-netanyahu-israel-mossad-chief-doha-qatar-continue-hamas-gaza-money-transfer-1.8564993 https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/.premium-netanyahu-...
- LorenPechtel 5y ago
  Haaretz isn't a *reputable* Israeli newspaper. The children of Gaza die because Hamas wants that to happen. And look at the demographics of those "children"--most are 16 and 17. And the only one starving children of Gaza is Hamas.

flyinglizard 5y ago

There’s hardly an Israeli Arab conflict any more. Peace was achieved in large through force projection and mutual interests; these technologies are an important part of both.

LorenPechtel 5y ago

Which shows you're missing the fundamental problem. There can be no peace with the Palestinians because it's not the Palestinians that Israel is actually at war with in the first place. Rather, they are pawns of their backers--if you somehow make peace with a pawn another simply steps up. Any peace agreement that actually worked would have to be with those backers--and they have never even been at the negotiating table. Look at the conflicts of the world. Pawns don't get defeated. Most of the time the other side decides the situation isn't worth it and leaves, but in this case that's not an option because the other side has no possible retreat. Note that a pawn can lose it's backing which in effects promotes it to being a king--and kings can be defeated.

raxxorrax 5y ago
Additionally those backers are in power because of the conflict. Why would they want to end it? For their power to hold they need the animosity towards Israel.

namlem 5y ago

Hamas can't get rockets that nice.

chakhs 5y ago

people here consider israel an occupation power remnant from the past century, not a neighbour

weatherlite 5y ago

Iran doesn't want peace with Israel, Iran wants Israel dismantled as a Jewish state. There is no negotiating with this.