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> These types of automation have been in place for decades, and all of them cut costs for the owners of them and reduce the number of workers needed. They redu

> These types of automation have been in place for decades, and all of them cut costs for the owners of them and reduce the number of workers needed. They reduce the number of workers needed to produce the same amount of output. What is slightly counterintuitive is that having done so, they may actually increase the demand for workers, because they now can produce far more output in the same amount of time. Modern languages and tools have made programming much more productive, and now there are lots more programmers and they get paid more.

clusterfish 5y ago
Theoretically yes, but in practice the given industry as a whole often does not need much more output even if the per unit cost of the output declines. Like, you don't need significantly more accounting just because you can use spreadsheets now. And not all automation increases worker productivity, lots of it just eliminates workers from certain jobs altogether, e.g. self driving cars / trucks.
- tialaramex 5y ago
  This can indeed cut both ways. Instead of needing huge numbers of manual workers to harvest the wheat, one guy can sit in an air-conditioned combine harvester cab for a few hours listening to tunes, and we get the same food. Humans can (and do) eat slightly more food given it's cheap and readily available, but there's a limit. So, the percentage of workers engaged in agricultural work fell. On the other hand, turns out that once a shirt is cheap humans will buy not just one extra so there's one to wear and one to wash, but a dozen, or hundreds. And they'll throw it away when it's a little worn not when it falls apart. So while industrialisation of fabric and clothing production made clothes cheap, the result wasn't that fewer people were employed in that work but that we just all bought more clothes.
  - bryanlarsen 5y ago
    > one guy can sit in an air-conditioned combine harvester cab for a few hours listening to tunes, I hope he's not listening to tunes. A change in the sound it's making is often the first warning that your $500,000 piece of machinery is about to self destruct.
    - Supermancho 5y ago
      I see it all the time, from combines to snowplows.
    - worik 5y ago
      > A change in the sound it's making is often the first warning that your $500,000 piece of machinery is about to self destruct. Whose machine?
    - throwaway0a5e 5y ago
      Anything that's got risk of becoming expensive will give you tactile or olfactory feedback.
    - dkjaudyeqooe 5y ago
      More likely some warning light will illuminate on the dash first.
- jdminhbg 5y ago
  I’m not very familiar with accountancy, but there seems to have been a lot of growth in internet-based tax prep for individuals who would previously have done their own. I couldn’t find historical data, but forecasts I found all agreed the number of accountants needed would rise over the coming years. We don’t even have self-driving cars yet, how can you know what effect they have?
- mellavora 5y ago
  Well, yes you do, because the spreadsheets make it easier for the regulators to add more regulation. Think: there used to be a theoretical limit to how much regulation could exist, because the regs had to be known by a person (otherwise how are they enforced?). Now we have regtech. A whole industry built on automating compliance. How long before each individual needs a regtech software program (or two!) just to function in society? I'm not talking about tax filing, that's just the start.
twiceaday 5y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox
majormajor 5y ago
> What is slightly counterintuitive is that having done so, they may actually increase the demand for workers, because they now can produce far more output in the same amount of time. They may do that. Too many people take it for a guarantee that technology by itself must do that, and can never result in a situation that a human hand is needed to steer us away from.
geodel 5y ago
> Modern languages and tools have made programming much more productive, and now there are lots more programmers and they get paid more. Well not really. Computer industry pay is increasingly becoming bi-modal at least for a decade. The highly paid programmer is just a US phenomenon and that too in few major IT hubs. There are lot of programers/IT admins who would make pretty decent money in late 90s to 2000s. And they make less than they were 20 years ago and yes all hadoop/big data training did not really make any better paid. Inflation adjusted IT salaries have gone down in lot of places in the world. Of course 1 percenters of IT in FAANG+ make it sound like IT salaries are going up heavily for everyone.
- sofixa 5y ago
  > The highly paid programmer is just a US phenomenon and that too in few major IT hubs. That's simply not true. Programmers around the EU are among the best paid professionals in their local markets, even more so for young people (out of college/school/university). The salaries are far away from Silicon Valley levels, but are still very high locally.
  - TulliusCicero 5y ago
    Think this depends on market. Sure, salaries in Germany are decent to good, but Italy? Ehhhhh.
    - sofixa 5y ago
      According to some sources online, the average salary for a junior developer in Italy is around 24k[0]. Indeed that isn't a lot, however it's not that much below the average salary in most regions [1]. Furthermore, in a per type of job, IT and tech are the highest paid bar "management" and "top management"[2]. 0 - https://www.payscale.com/research/IT/Job=Junior_Software_Engineer/Salary https://www.payscale.com/research/IT/Job=Junior_Software_Eng... 1 - https://www.statista.com/statistics/708972/average-annual-nominal-wages-of-employees-italy-by-region/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/708972/average-annual-no... 2 - https://www.paylab.com/it/salaryinfo https://www.paylab.com/it/salaryinfo
vidarh 5y ago
This only works to an extent. US manufacturing output is higher than before outsourcing manufacturing became a thing, but US manufacturing jobs are far fewer, because the total demand for a whole lot of products can be met with far fewer people. When there's an inequality in productivity, more productive firma will see an increase in labour, bit that doesn't mean the whole sector does.
imtringued 5y ago
In theory people work because they want something from someone else (says law). So in theory there can never be unemployment. In practice some people want money itself, which is an empirical contradiction of says law. There are also people who hoard jobs because they like them, which is bad for people who want the money to actually spend it.

clusterfish 5y ago

Theoretically yes, but in practice the given industry as a whole often does not need much more output even if the per unit cost of the output declines. Like, you don't need significantly more accounting just because you can use spreadsheets now. And not all automation increases worker productivity, lots of it just eliminates workers from certain jobs altogether, e.g. self driving cars / trucks.

tialaramex 5y ago
This can indeed cut both ways. Instead of needing huge numbers of manual workers to harvest the wheat, one guy can sit in an air-conditioned combine harvester cab for a few hours listening to tunes, and we get the same food. Humans can (and do) eat slightly more food given it's cheap and readily available, but there's a limit. So, the percentage of workers engaged in agricultural work fell. On the other hand, turns out that once a shirt is cheap humans will buy not just one extra so there's one to wear and one to wash, but a dozen, or hundreds. And they'll throw it away when it's a little worn not when it falls apart. So while industrialisation of fabric and clothing production made clothes cheap, the result wasn't that fewer people were employed in that work but that we just all bought more clothes.
- bryanlarsen 5y ago
  > one guy can sit in an air-conditioned combine harvester cab for a few hours listening to tunes, I hope he's not listening to tunes. A change in the sound it's making is often the first warning that your $500,000 piece of machinery is about to self destruct.
  - Supermancho 5y ago
    I see it all the time, from combines to snowplows.
  - worik 5y ago
    > A change in the sound it's making is often the first warning that your $500,000 piece of machinery is about to self destruct. Whose machine?
  - throwaway0a5e 5y ago
    Anything that's got risk of becoming expensive will give you tactile or olfactory feedback.
  - dkjaudyeqooe 5y ago
    More likely some warning light will illuminate on the dash first.
jdminhbg 5y ago
I’m not very familiar with accountancy, but there seems to have been a lot of growth in internet-based tax prep for individuals who would previously have done their own. I couldn’t find historical data, but forecasts I found all agreed the number of accountants needed would rise over the coming years. We don’t even have self-driving cars yet, how can you know what effect they have?
mellavora 5y ago
Well, yes you do, because the spreadsheets make it easier for the regulators to add more regulation. Think: there used to be a theoretical limit to how much regulation could exist, because the regs had to be known by a person (otherwise how are they enforced?). Now we have regtech. A whole industry built on automating compliance. How long before each individual needs a regtech software program (or two!) just to function in society? I'm not talking about tax filing, that's just the start.

twiceaday 5y ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

majormajor 5y ago

> What is slightly counterintuitive is that having done so, they may actually increase the demand for workers, because they now can produce far more output in the same amount of time. They may do that. Too many people take it for a guarantee that technology by itself must do that, and can never result in a situation that a human hand is needed to steer us away from.

geodel 5y ago

> Modern languages and tools have made programming much more productive, and now there are lots more programmers and they get paid more. Well not really. Computer industry pay is increasingly becoming bi-modal at least for a decade. The highly paid programmer is just a US phenomenon and that too in few major IT hubs. There are lot of programers/IT admins who would make pretty decent money in late 90s to 2000s. And they make less than they were 20 years ago and yes all hadoop/big data training did not really make any better paid. Inflation adjusted IT salaries have gone down in lot of places in the world. Of course 1 percenters of IT in FAANG+ make it sound like IT salaries are going up heavily for everyone.

sofixa 5y ago
> The highly paid programmer is just a US phenomenon and that too in few major IT hubs. That's simply not true. Programmers around the EU are among the best paid professionals in their local markets, even more so for young people (out of college/school/university). The salaries are far away from Silicon Valley levels, but are still very high locally.
- TulliusCicero 5y ago
  Think this depends on market. Sure, salaries in Germany are decent to good, but Italy? Ehhhhh.
  - sofixa 5y ago
    According to some sources online, the average salary for a junior developer in Italy is around 24k[0]. Indeed that isn't a lot, however it's not that much below the average salary in most regions [1]. Furthermore, in a per type of job, IT and tech are the highest paid bar "management" and "top management"[2]. 0 - https://www.payscale.com/research/IT/Job=Junior_Software_Engineer/Salary https://www.payscale.com/research/IT/Job=Junior_Software_Eng... 1 - https://www.statista.com/statistics/708972/average-annual-nominal-wages-of-employees-italy-by-region/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/708972/average-annual-no... 2 - https://www.paylab.com/it/salaryinfo https://www.paylab.com/it/salaryinfo

vidarh 5y ago

This only works to an extent. US manufacturing output is higher than before outsourcing manufacturing became a thing, but US manufacturing jobs are far fewer, because the total demand for a whole lot of products can be met with far fewer people. When there's an inequality in productivity, more productive firma will see an increase in labour, bit that doesn't mean the whole sector does.

imtringued 5y ago

In theory people work because they want something from someone else (says law). So in theory there can never be unemployment. In practice some people want money itself, which is an empirical contradiction of says law. There are also people who hoard jobs because they like them, which is bad for people who want the money to actually spend it.