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I posit that the costs will continue to decrease as mindshifts change--right now (or more precisely, around the time these drones were designed and purchased) w

I posit that the costs will continue to decrease as mindshifts change--right now (or more precisely, around the time these drones were designed and purchased) we think about drones as being "unmanned planes" and planes are supposed to be big, reliable, and expensive and the military procedures and culture is calibrated to minimize losses of these planes. As expectations change, I think costs will decline as well which will feed back into a change of expectations (time will tell). Regarding "delivering them to the target area", it's pretty easy to conceive of a larger transport craft managing delivery.

nradov 5y ago
What's your point? We already have that. Large bombers are used to deliver cruise missiles close enough to the target area. Cruise missiles are drones by another name. But they're hardly cheap. In fact they're getting more expensive.
- alexpotato 5y ago
  - build small, short range but very smart swarm drones - package them up (cluster bomb style) into a "dumb" ballistic missile that only needs to get to the general area (e.g. near a city) - airborne deploy the swarm once near the target Combines long range "cheap" deployment with short range smart capabilities.
  - nradov 5y ago
    There have been proposals to build conventionally armed ballistic missiles to fulfill the prompt global strike mission. The problem is that if Russia / China / North Korea detect a ballistic missile headed in their general direction they might misinterpret it as an incoming nuclear first strike and retaliate accordingly. A very dangerous game. Also it's rather pointless to deploy any sort of "drone" from a long range ballistic missile. It would need a complex and heavy braking system to slow down enough during re-entry to allow for controlled flight. Easier to just hit the target directly with a re-entry vehicle.
  - imtringued 5y ago
    Have some stupid CGI: https://youtu.be/n8u0l_c2_NA https://youtu.be/n8u0l_c2_NA
- throwaway894345 5y ago
  The point is that AI has the power to change the ecology of war. Cruise missiles occupy a niche, and yet they haven't obsoleted combat aircraft, so clearly they aren't "drones by another name"--drones serve a purpose today and will continue to diversify (including a blurring of lines between "drone" and "cruise missile"). Anyway, this conversation has taken a defensive tone, so I'll duck out.

nradov 5y ago

What's your point? We already have that. Large bombers are used to deliver cruise missiles close enough to the target area. Cruise missiles are drones by another name. But they're hardly cheap. In fact they're getting more expensive.

alexpotato 5y ago
- build small, short range but very smart swarm drones - package them up (cluster bomb style) into a "dumb" ballistic missile that only needs to get to the general area (e.g. near a city) - airborne deploy the swarm once near the target Combines long range "cheap" deployment with short range smart capabilities.
- nradov 5y ago
  There have been proposals to build conventionally armed ballistic missiles to fulfill the prompt global strike mission. The problem is that if Russia / China / North Korea detect a ballistic missile headed in their general direction they might misinterpret it as an incoming nuclear first strike and retaliate accordingly. A very dangerous game. Also it's rather pointless to deploy any sort of "drone" from a long range ballistic missile. It would need a complex and heavy braking system to slow down enough during re-entry to allow for controlled flight. Easier to just hit the target directly with a re-entry vehicle.
- imtringued 5y ago
  Have some stupid CGI: https://youtu.be/n8u0l_c2_NA https://youtu.be/n8u0l_c2_NA
throwaway894345 5y ago
The point is that AI has the power to change the ecology of war. Cruise missiles occupy a niche, and yet they haven't obsoleted combat aircraft, so clearly they aren't "drones by another name"--drones serve a purpose today and will continue to diversify (including a blurring of lines between "drone" and "cruise missile"). Anyway, this conversation has taken a defensive tone, so I'll duck out.