5 ms·

And many (most?) of these policies ignore natural immunity that people are getting from catching COVID.

by kyrra 5y ago

Daishiman 5y ago
They do https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciac022/6507165 https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid... .
- timr 5y ago
  You should probably read the data, and not just the title and conclusions: > Among those previously infected, until the emergence of the Omicron variant, the cumulative incidence of COVID19 was not significantly different between those vaccinated and unvaccinated, even at almost a year of follow-up. > However, among those with prior COVID-19, vaccination was not associated with significantly lower risk of COVID-19 in either the pre-Omicron (HR 0.78, 95% C.I. 0.31-1.96) or the Omicron phase (HR 0.77, 95% C.I. 0.53-1.12). The only thing they find is that there's some effectiveness against symptomatic illness during the Omicron wave: > among those with prior COVID-19, vaccination was associated with significantly lower risk of symptomatic COVID-19 in both the pre-Omicron (HR 0.60, 95% C.I. 0.40-0.90) and the Omicron phase (HR 0.36, 95% C.I. 0.23-0.57). Apparently this is based on the data in Figure 4...but Figure 4 isn't included (again, did you read this??), so I can't say either way.
  - Daishiman 5y ago
    So at the very worst it does nothing. How is that bad? I don't want to go around checking if people had or did not have Covid, which a lot of people are prone to lying about.
    - timr 5y ago
      No. At the very worst the vaccine causes harm, and provides no benefit. > I don't want to go around checking if people had or did not have Covid, which a lot of people are prone to lying about. We're not talking about sterilizing immunity. Even the best case arguments for booster doses in the young are citing efficacy against "symptomatic illness" that is well below 100%. Case in point: I just had it. I'm triple vaccinated. I'm not alone.
      - Terretta 5y ago
        > I'm triple vaccinated. Why?
        hdjjhhvvhga 5y ago
        Not the parent, but in many countries in Europe you need to have a vaccine passport to lead a more-or-less normal life - and in extreme cases, you are not allowed to work and are forced to pay a fine if it expired. So often having a booster or not is not a matter of personal choice.
        timr 5y ago
        It was a toss up. Some reasons why I went the way I did: 1) I am of an age where risk/reward ratio is clearer. It still isn't so compelling that I rushed to do it, but far better than for college kids. 2) I was (and remain) concerned that the dark-blue city where I live is going to mandate them to participate in normal life. I find this loathsome, but I am not in a position to fight it. 3) It gives me a certain authority when I tell people that I don't believe in vaccine mandates or many of our policies, yet I am 100% compliant with the rules. 4) I thought maybe it would keep me from catching a cold. Alas, because the universe tends toward maximum irony, a week after the booster I caught Omicron.
- kyrra 5y ago
  I agree that studies that look at natural immunity find that it actually does something (also, those who were vaccinated then later got Covid have really strong immune response [0]). My issue is with the CDC, OSHA rules, HHS worker rules, and others that totally ignore natural immunity with their policies. [0] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2787447?guestAccessKey=b13a6814-c63d-4fa0-b2ae-a4511de8aedb https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2787447?gu...
  - ceejayoz 5y ago
    > totally ignore natural immunity with their policies Because it’s difficult to verify. “Oh, I had it last year” would become the new “the ADA says you can’t make me wear a mask” thing.
jollybean 5y ago
It's a bit conspiratorial to suggest health authorities including epidemiologists and immunologists would 'ignore' a foundational aspect of their underlying knowledge of the system when trying to understand it and formulate policy. Of course they are taking it into account. Most health authorities do random sampling to try to get an idea of underlying natural immunity and the various characteristics that takes on.
- bigodbiel 5y ago
  If you go by the CDC’s hesitancy in accepting natural immunity, including the number of dubious conducted and/or worded studies they pushed, while ignoring studies showing the opposite and what foreign governments were doing (eg 3G), one is forgiven for believing that.
  - jollybean 5y ago
    I didn't say that they were right or wrong to reject natural immunity, I said they are not ignoring natural immunity in terms of their calculus. FYI The reason we're not going to accept 'natural immunity' as a legit form of documented immunity is because millions of idiots will go and get COVID on purpose , as they'd prefer getting it 'the natural way' as opposed to getting a jab. This is the difference between 'Science' and 'Public Health Policy'. I just had an anti-vaxx colleague do exactly that, and it wasn't even for some kind of immune benefit, rather, 'just to get it over with'. I was completely floored when she told me. But I'm now convinced that my anti-vaxx cousins who are now barred from the liquor stores, would get COVID 'on purpose' if they could get their passport to alcohol and not have to get the 'Goddam Fauci Jab'.

And many (most?) of these policies ignore natural immunity that people are getting from catching COVID.

by kyrra 5y ago

And many (most?) of these policies ignore natural immunity that people are getting from catching COVID.

They do https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciac022/6507165 https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid... .

timr 5y ago
You should probably read the data, and not just the title and conclusions: > Among those previously infected, until the emergence of the Omicron variant, the cumulative incidence of COVID19 was not significantly different between those vaccinated and unvaccinated, even at almost a year of follow-up. > However, among those with prior COVID-19, vaccination was not associated with significantly lower risk of COVID-19 in either the pre-Omicron (HR 0.78, 95% C.I. 0.31-1.96) or the Omicron phase (HR 0.77, 95% C.I. 0.53-1.12). The only thing they find is that there's some effectiveness against symptomatic illness during the Omicron wave: > among those with prior COVID-19, vaccination was associated with significantly lower risk of symptomatic COVID-19 in both the pre-Omicron (HR 0.60, 95% C.I. 0.40-0.90) and the Omicron phase (HR 0.36, 95% C.I. 0.23-0.57). Apparently this is based on the data in Figure 4...but Figure 4 isn't included (again, did you read this??), so I can't say either way.
- Daishiman 5y ago
  So at the very worst it does nothing. How is that bad? I don't want to go around checking if people had or did not have Covid, which a lot of people are prone to lying about.
  - timr 5y ago
    No. At the very worst the vaccine causes harm, and provides no benefit. > I don't want to go around checking if people had or did not have Covid, which a lot of people are prone to lying about. We're not talking about sterilizing immunity. Even the best case arguments for booster doses in the young are citing efficacy against "symptomatic illness" that is well below 100%. Case in point: I just had it. I'm triple vaccinated. I'm not alone.
    - Terretta 5y ago
      > I'm triple vaccinated. Why?
      - hdjjhhvvhga 5y ago
        Not the parent, but in many countries in Europe you need to have a vaccine passport to lead a more-or-less normal life - and in extreme cases, you are not allowed to work and are forced to pay a fine if it expired. So often having a booster or not is not a matter of personal choice.
      - timr 5y ago
        It was a toss up. Some reasons why I went the way I did: 1) I am of an age where risk/reward ratio is clearer. It still isn't so compelling that I rushed to do it, but far better than for college kids. 2) I was (and remain) concerned that the dark-blue city where I live is going to mandate them to participate in normal life. I find this loathsome, but I am not in a position to fight it. 3) It gives me a certain authority when I tell people that I don't believe in vaccine mandates or many of our policies, yet I am 100% compliant with the rules. 4) I thought maybe it would keep me from catching a cold. Alas, because the universe tends toward maximum irony, a week after the booster I caught Omicron.
kyrra 5y ago
I agree that studies that look at natural immunity find that it actually does something (also, those who were vaccinated then later got Covid have really strong immune response [0]). My issue is with the CDC, OSHA rules, HHS worker rules, and others that totally ignore natural immunity with their policies. [0] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2787447?guestAccessKey=b13a6814-c63d-4fa0-b2ae-a4511de8aedb https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2787447?gu...
- ceejayoz 5y ago
  > totally ignore natural immunity with their policies Because it’s difficult to verify. “Oh, I had it last year” would become the new “the ADA says you can’t make me wear a mask” thing.

jollybean 5y ago

It's a bit conspiratorial to suggest health authorities including epidemiologists and immunologists would 'ignore' a foundational aspect of their underlying knowledge of the system when trying to understand it and formulate policy. Of course they are taking it into account. Most health authorities do random sampling to try to get an idea of underlying natural immunity and the various characteristics that takes on.

bigodbiel 5y ago
If you go by the CDC’s hesitancy in accepting natural immunity, including the number of dubious conducted and/or worded studies they pushed, while ignoring studies showing the opposite and what foreign governments were doing (eg 3G), one is forgiven for believing that.
- jollybean 5y ago
  I didn't say that they were right or wrong to reject natural immunity, I said they are not ignoring natural immunity in terms of their calculus. FYI The reason we're not going to accept 'natural immunity' as a legit form of documented immunity is because millions of idiots will go and get COVID on purpose , as they'd prefer getting it 'the natural way' as opposed to getting a jab. This is the difference between 'Science' and 'Public Health Policy'. I just had an anti-vaxx colleague do exactly that, and it wasn't even for some kind of immune benefit, rather, 'just to get it over with'. I was completely floored when she told me. But I'm now convinced that my anti-vaxx cousins who are now barred from the liquor stores, would get COVID 'on purpose' if they could get their passport to alcohol and not have to get the 'Goddam Fauci Jab'.