4 ms·

> It looked for a while there like this could be a thing that gets “done”—that we would get a good vaccine into enough people, then incidence would decline so f

by bko 5y ago

> It looked for a while there like this could be a thing that gets “done”—that we would get a good vaccine into enough people, then incidence would decline so far it just goes away... That didn’t happen. We’re stuck with it for a foreseeable future. Well, one can cry for the world that was, or one can get up and live in the world that is. Whats the magic number? There are places like New York that have 95% over 18 with at least 1 vaccine and 83.3% with completed vaccination status. But the problems still persist and the entire focus is on those last few percent of people moving the needle, when in the past we've been told "herd immunity" would be conservatively reached at ~70%. https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/vaccination-progress-date https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/vaccination-progress-date

ekanes 5y ago
In a pandemic, I think herd immunity is a worldwide concept more than localized.
holbrad 5y ago
It's almost like the COVID vaccines don't work very well to prevent spread. (It clearly helps against being hospitalised)
- creato 5y ago
  It’s almost like the variants of the virus prevalent today are very, very different from those when those estimates were produced.
- jacquesm 5y ago
  And death. And hopefully against long COVID (prior to infection, that is).
- rhino369 5y ago
  Then you can't blame continued high cases on the unvaccinated and you can't expect the covid risk to go away. The at-risk should get used to wearing an N95 mask, but I'm done complying with mitigation measures (I'll get future boosters if they actually do anything for me).
  - disgruntledphd2 5y ago
    Ultimately, unvaccinated cases are irrelevant, until they end up in hospital, which is what's happening right now.
nradov 5y ago
I encourage everyone eligible to protect themselves by getting vaccinated but the Delta and Omicron variants are so contagious that there will be no significant herd immunity effect. https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immunity-not-possible-astrazeneca-developer-2021-8?r=US&IR=T https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immu...
lupire 5y ago
> There are places like New York that have 95% over 18 Per your link, not NYCity, and not NYState. Maybe some regions of NY have that number? Also, people under 18 exist. Vaccinating adults-only is never going to create herd immunity.
- ceras 5y ago
  OP's link supports their numbers for NY state: 95% of 18+ year olds have 1 shot, 83.4% of 18+ year olds have completed vaccine series.
  - lupire 5y ago
    oh, I see, 95% is the top line summary, but it's larger than all the drilldown categories except 54-74 (99+%). Something is wrong with the data; there aren't that many more people in the 55-74 bucket than others. https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/demographic-vaccination-data https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/demographic-vaccination-da...
notJim 5y ago
To be fair, many people had pointed out that unless we vaccinate the entire world, new variants would emerge, which may be better at evading the vaccine. That is exactly what happened with Omicron.
- dougmwne 5y ago
  With a 6 month immunity window and animals reservoirs, you could simultaneously give every singe human the vaccine and it would still come back. You are misinformed that we ever had any chance of closing Pandora’s box.
- coryfklein 5y ago
  Fortunately, since a high mortality rate makes for poor Darwinian fitness, viruses tend to evolve over time into variants with lower mortality albeit higher infectivity. In a few decades, coronavirus may actually end up being just as lethal as the flu! One can hope, at least.
  - SergeAx 5y ago
    Theory you citing is not that credible. Smallpox virus was with humanity for at least 3500 years. In XX century it's lethal rate was about 30% for adults, more for children.
    - coryfklein 5y ago
      Why indeed you are correct! [1] > Take-home message: > - The idea that viruses always evolve to become less lethal because it is advantageous to them is an old theory that has been shown to be wrong Thank you for correcting a misconception of mine! :D [1] https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/covid-19/do-bad-viruses-always-become-good-guys-end https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/covid-19/do-bad-viruses-al...

by bko 5y ago

ekanes 5y ago

In a pandemic, I think herd immunity is a worldwide concept more than localized.

holbrad 5y ago

It's almost like the COVID vaccines don't work very well to prevent spread. (It clearly helps against being hospitalised)

creato 5y ago
It’s almost like the variants of the virus prevalent today are very, very different from those when those estimates were produced.
jacquesm 5y ago
And death. And hopefully against long COVID (prior to infection, that is).
rhino369 5y ago
Then you can't blame continued high cases on the unvaccinated and you can't expect the covid risk to go away. The at-risk should get used to wearing an N95 mask, but I'm done complying with mitigation measures (I'll get future boosters if they actually do anything for me).
- disgruntledphd2 5y ago
  Ultimately, unvaccinated cases are irrelevant, until they end up in hospital, which is what's happening right now.

nradov 5y ago

I encourage everyone eligible to protect themselves by getting vaccinated but the Delta and Omicron variants are so contagious that there will be no significant herd immunity effect. https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immunity-not-possible-astrazeneca-developer-2021-8?r=US&IR=T https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immu...

lupire 5y ago

> There are places like New York that have 95% over 18 Per your link, not NYCity, and not NYState. Maybe some regions of NY have that number? Also, people under 18 exist. Vaccinating adults-only is never going to create herd immunity.

ceras 5y ago
OP's link supports their numbers for NY state: 95% of 18+ year olds have 1 shot, 83.4% of 18+ year olds have completed vaccine series.
- lupire 5y ago
  oh, I see, 95% is the top line summary, but it's larger than all the drilldown categories except 54-74 (99+%). Something is wrong with the data; there aren't that many more people in the 55-74 bucket than others. https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/demographic-vaccination-data https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/demographic-vaccination-da...

notJim 5y ago

To be fair, many people had pointed out that unless we vaccinate the entire world, new variants would emerge, which may be better at evading the vaccine. That is exactly what happened with Omicron.

dougmwne 5y ago
With a 6 month immunity window and animals reservoirs, you could simultaneously give every singe human the vaccine and it would still come back. You are misinformed that we ever had any chance of closing Pandora’s box.
coryfklein 5y ago
Fortunately, since a high mortality rate makes for poor Darwinian fitness, viruses tend to evolve over time into variants with lower mortality albeit higher infectivity. In a few decades, coronavirus may actually end up being just as lethal as the flu! One can hope, at least.
- SergeAx 5y ago
  Theory you citing is not that credible. Smallpox virus was with humanity for at least 3500 years. In XX century it's lethal rate was about 30% for adults, more for children.
  - coryfklein 5y ago
    Why indeed you are correct! [1] > Take-home message: > - The idea that viruses always evolve to become less lethal because it is advantageous to them is an old theory that has been shown to be wrong Thank you for correcting a misconception of mine! :D [1] https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/covid-19/do-bad-viruses-always-become-good-guys-end https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/covid-19/do-bad-viruses-al...