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John Deere unveils fully autonomous 8R tractor

123 points by ohjeez 5y ago

gonzo41 5y ago
Surely there's an auto maker who wants to deliver the Toyota corolla equivalent of tractors to the world. John Deere sounds so terrible for farmers with it's locked in anti repair machines.
- farmin 5y ago
  I've often thought this. Lock-in is one thing, but really just better value for money. Mahindra maybe someone to watch?
userbinator 5y ago
...that you are not allowed to fix? That's about the only thing that comes to mind when I hear "John Deere" now.
- krasin 5y ago
  Yes, they are making themselves vulnerable to disruption in the mid-term. Short-term, they are still golden.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
haihaibye 5y ago
Agriculture continues its long term trend of reducing needed human input. Almost everyone was once a farmer now only a few, and soon even less. This could shift the skills needed to farm more towards automation/programming tech etc
- edge17 5y ago
  Farming economics vary a ton from country to country. In the US there is widespread consolidation and larger farms can afford high tech machines. But in poor places where the labor is cheap it's often the case that farm plots are small and fragmented, and the economics of this type of automation don't really work. Not saying it can't, but the delivery model needs to be one where the farmer isn't bearing the cost of the machine.
- aemreunal 5y ago
  One of the most voiced benefits of the increased automation and efficiency through the industrial revolution (and the technological advancements today) was that we'll generate more value/goods/etc. with less human work, therefore everyone's prosperity will increase. For example, a farm that would require 20 people will require 5 with machines. We did get the increase in production efficiency but that newly-generated value was never passed on to those who did the actual work (all the way from farmers and factory works to most white collar jobs). It was captured and collected by those at the top. So now, everyone's afraid of "losing their jobs to machines" and somewhat rightly so. Instead of building machines to do our bidding while we live like royalty, we still have insane amounts of poverty despite the world generating more products/food/value than ever before in human history, with people losing their jobs and getting nothing in return.
  - kube-system 5y ago
    Because the market for agriculture is competitive, the value was passed down to consumers in the form of cheaper food. Before industrialized agriculture, it was normal for food to be the largest chunk of a household's budget. It's likely also a leading cause of this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population#/media/File:World-population-1750-2015-and-un-projection-until-2100.png https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population#/media/File:W...
  - skybrian 5y ago
    I think you've misunderstood the economics. In the presence of competition, productivity improvements result in lower prices.
  - loceng 5y ago
    Hence why we need UBI tied to inflation and paid for with VAT - perhaps partly or fully, potentially eliminate income tax to not penalize working.
    - visarga 5y ago
      What would happen if instead of collecting tax for UBI the central bank would issue new currency? Prices would keep on raising forever, but from time to time we could cut a few zeros. The ones who hold onto cash would see their money slowly losing value, better use it or lose it. This system would be easier to implement.
tyingq 5y ago
Interesting. A much more controlled/limited environment than cars, but pretty high safety stakes when you're pulling a chisel plow.
- kypro 5y ago
  Let's hope it's not easy to hack... A remote controlled tractor in the wrong hands would be terrifying.
  - abakker 5y ago
    More terrifying than a guy with a gun, though? Don’t get me wrong, the worst case scenario is bad. but anyone interested in creating that scenario probably has better tools at their disposal. If this tractor gets hacked, it will be to allow 3rd part spare parts.
    - fennecfoxen 5y ago
      One imagines the tractor could also be hacked destructively by some nation-state adversary. But probably not to drive places randomly and smash into things. The better attack is to change some engine settings so the entire fleet is ruined just before a big harvest, so there's no time to fix them. Attacking people with tractors just draws attention to your compromise.
      - gtvwill 5y ago
        Nah just up nutrients dose rates a few % and render the field unusable for years to come. Smash a whole fleet that has a lion's share of the market. Blammo food shortages across your country for years rather than just the few weeks waiting for machines yo be fixed.
    - gtvwill 5y ago
      Far more terrifying than a man with a gun. Hack the right part of the system and you could affect food supply for years.
Animats 5y ago
"Using the John Deere Operations Center mobile app..." So now your tractor is controlled via their network? If their server goes down, can you still farm? What if your John Deere Operations Center account has been been terminated or suspended? Here are their terms.[1] "In its sole discretion, Deere may restrict the Site or restricted areas of the Site to selected users." Farmers have been fighting for the right to repair Deere tractors. So this is Deere's response. They now claim the right to prevent tractor owners from using them. [1] https://www.deere.com/en/privacy-and-data/terms/ https://www.deere.com/en/privacy-and-data/terms/
- smoyer 5y ago
  Since you can't fix it yourself it will probably be in the barn waiting for an appointment at the genius bar when your account is deleted (for complaining about John Deere).
- sandworm101 5y ago
  Not all that different than commercial aircraft. If Boeing cuts you off from software updates or replacement parts then your ailiner is basically worthless and unable to fly within a month. Many agribusinesses are probably fine with this as a tradeoff for the decreased manning of an autonomous tractor. JD might say that the small farmers who dont like the arrangement are not its target market.
  - walrus01 5y ago
    If you have a 747-400 those updates come on 1.44MB floppies
    - OnlineGladiator 5y ago
      I wasn't sure if you were joking or not. https://www.theverge.com/2020/8/11/21363122/boeing-747s-floppy-disc-updates-critical-software https://www.theverge.com/2020/8/11/21363122/boeing-747s-flop...
    - xxpor 5y ago
halpert 5y ago
Not super related, but one interesting thing mentioned in the article is that the population will increase from 8 billion to 10 billion by 2050, "increasing global food demand by 50%." Why would a 25% increase in population cause a 50% increase in food demand?
- tantalor 5y ago
  Food waste. Half of the food grown is thrown out instead of eaten.
  - halpert 5y ago
    That doesn't make sense, unless the amount of food waste, measured as a percentage of total food, increases as the total amount of food produced increases.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - pugworthy 5y ago
    I've no facts to back that up, but my bet is that a) this is true in well off countries, and b) not true in non-well off countries.
    - tasha0663 5y ago
      I always wonder what the ideal amount of food waste is supposed to be. Zero is a post apocalyptic hellscape.
      - ggm 5y ago
        In primary production most things you don't consume yourself have either to earn income or cost you money to dispose of, and suddenly zero waste is a big win. Pig slurry has massive costs associated either with remediation of water or cartage. If you can make methane, drive a generator or heat or cool something or run pumps, and then have (in disease terms) sterile and nutrient rich water to use.. it's better. Ploughing in your unsellable fruit is said to be heartbreaking. Suicide in farmers is high. Growing less and getting a better price for it might be better than growing more but losing half the produce to skin taint or bruising. Less inputs, more value per acre worked.
pugworthy 5y ago
Dystopian versions of this are interesting to imagine. Suppose the whole Keurig's DRM idea is applied to automated farm equipment. Want to plant some seeds? They have to be from a given source. Want to plant a certain crop, you can't plant it unless it's treated with a given pesticide. Inline sensors detect exactly what you are dispensing. This all works because if you want to automate the driving, you have to integrate with the dispensing of things: seeds, fertilizers, pesticides, etc. If you don't, you need a person Of course there is a flipside where that can be used to prevent you from using illegal pesticides, as those same in-line sensors could prevent dispensing of undesired things.
- loceng 5y ago
  It just made me realize: why don't we have a public system that if you want to do something new it needs to be brought forward for public discussion and public policy to be set first? I do know the obvious answers to this but what are the externalized costs of not doing it, and are the trade-off worth it?
  - pugworthy 5y ago
    It's a good question. In my scenario I'm basically saying that if the tractor can say yes or no for actions, then this can be used for good or bad. But who gets to define the rules for it? What is undesirable for the environment for example may be very desirable for the shareholders.
  - nexuist 5y ago
    > It just made me realize: why don't we have a public system that if you want to do something new it needs to be brought forward for public discussion and public policy to be set first? Like....some type of legislative system...where they hold hearings and make laws about them? That would be sick. Some startup should definitely disrupt this space. They could fund it by charging yearly subscriptions, maybe collect them every April or something. (Jokes aside: this is supposed to be the job of regulatory agencies, but because industry has grown so powerful and been unchecked for so long it doesn't really feel like anyone has any teeth left to stop corporations like JD anymore).
jrexilius 5y ago
I am incredibly ignorant of this market but I'm struggling to figure out the value of replacing a $100k/yr tractor driver in relation to the overall margins from acres worked?... I mean. a tractor doesn't need to drive the acreage year round. The food produced per acre seems like a lot.. I'm guessing a tractor works a field a couple times a year? so 10% or less of a $100k/yr salary?.. Is this really worth it? A cross-country truck driver is limited to the amunt of cargo it can haul, and is needed constantly. I get the value there. I must be missing something on farm tractors..
- nine_k 5y ago
  A tractor can do other things beside plowing and seeding. Some cultures are unlike wheat and require, or benefit from, more care during vegetation. Also, the tractor can probably harvest some cultures. Farther south, several crops per year can be taken, possibly of different cultures on the same land. The tractor can work 24/7. This is very important during certain seasons when the windows of beneficial weather are small, and the effect of the conditions at that day on the whole crop is outsized. I suspect tractor operators are in short supply during such season. I can see how a robotic tractor may feel more dependable than skilled seasonal labor.
- bluGill 5y ago
  Where can you find someone to drive a tractor when you need it and not need to be paid the rest of the year 'when you need a driver so do all the.other farmers. When you don't nobody else in your area does either.
don-code 5y ago
While I understand and empathize with many of the concerns here in the comments (especially given John Deere's track record in being practically hostile to end users), the promise of farming equipment that can run overnight, in the absence of light, may be a top-five disruptor to agriculture, right up there with fertilizer and engines.
- nexuist 5y ago
  I agree. This is really awesome to see! We've known that this was possible for years now, but it's great to see it finally commercialized and ready to roll off a production line. I'm concerned about JD's involvement in this but I trust there will be plenty of competitors in this market in a short time frame.
BLO716 5y ago
Right to repair is about to see a new chapter.
rmason 5y ago
The economics of John Deere renting a fleet of tractors to farmers becomes more attractive than selling them when you can now run a tractor 24 hours per day without a human operator. That's because you can use the self driving software to accurately monitor how many acres the machine has been used on. You can start renting the tractors in the South and keep moving them North. While a farmer might use that tractor a maximum of three months a year Deere could keep them running more than double that usage. It's possible that a startup could start doing it proving the model and then get acquired by Deere.
- Gustomaximus 5y ago
  This exists to some extent with harvesters and planters who travel to suit the season/region so the machine gets used much longer each year than it would on one farm.
jimmar 5y ago
I like that companies are innovating and there is competition in this space. In 2018, John Deere only had 17% of the tractor market [1]. If farmer's don't like the tech, lack of repairability, etc, it seems they have plenty of other options. I don't get why some people on this thread are so upset. [1] https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/some-of-the-major-companies-dominating-the-market-studied-are-john-deere-cnh-industrial-agco-corp-kubota-corp-class-mahindra--mahindra-kuhn-group-yanmar-co-ltd-and-escorts-and-they-captured-63-of-the-market-in-2018-300991064.html https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/some-of-the-major-c...
- nexuist 5y ago
  > I don't get why some people on this thread are so upset. Agriculture is a critical component of a functional society. It's not a good idea to allow a few corporations to monopolize our entire food supply, and small farmers are constantly struggling to keep their heads above water. When suppliers like JD pull this BS with tech, it's a canary in the coal mine moment signaling that whoever controls JD could one day indirectly control US agriculture, which is a significant national security concern. This particular tractor seems to be completely linked to JD's cloud system, there's no way to run it locally or independently from JD. If this becomes the norm 10 years from now and every tractor relies on JD's permission to operate, what happens when JD gets hit by ransomware or attacked by hostile nation states? Every tractor in the country suddenly refuses to work and we no longer have enough food to feed everyone. This would be a manmade disaster with unimaginable consequences (although one easy to imagine one is nuclear holocaust).
- syshum 5y ago
  We are in the mist of one of the biggest supply chain disruptions in modern history and you have to ask why people would be upset about technology that make a critical part of human life dependent on a company that openly hostile to human rights (for which I consider right to own property a basic human right)?? You can not image a scenario where this can cause huge supply chain issue with the food supply? You can not image a scenario where this leads to further consolidation of farms into larger and larger corporations that control a larger percent of the national food supply? I am shocked more people are not upset about this.
ourmandave 5y ago
There's a farm labor shortage crisis so farmers are using tech (and a bunch of other strategies). https://agamerica.com/blog/the-impact-of-the-farm-labor-shortage/ https://agamerica.com/blog/the-impact-of-the-farm-labor-shor... How U.S. Farmers are Coping with the Labor Shortage Crisis While the USDA is working on new legislation to address these impacts, U.S farmers are turning to alternative options to compensate for their current labor shortage predicament. Smart Technology Advancements The Internet of Things (IoT) industry has exploded as farmers use innovative technology to keep up with demand and remain competitive in the global market. The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) reported 56 percent of U.S. farms have begun using agritech, with more than half stating labor shortage as the reason. Innovative agrotechnology includes, Wireless sensors; Predictive forecasting models; Advanced automation; Robotics; and Data analytics Smart farming technology allows farmers to work at full or near-full capacity with fewer workers, but not without certain drawbacks. The current technology can only accommodate certain crops, excluding nearly 200 specialty crops. This forces specialty farmers to make the difficult decision to either consolidate their operation or transition to machine-serviceable crops. Transitioning to smart farming technology also requires a high initial cost investment. This is particularly difficult for small to medium-size farms, which are the ones hit hardest by the effects of farm labor shortage. Despite these drawbacks, many U.S. farmers are realizing the investment is worth the initial cost to enhance crop quality and quantity through precision automation, pest control, and crop-health monitoring.
bmitc 5y ago
I have plowed before with tractors of this size. (Actually, the tractor I drove was larger.) The article doesn't cover it, but I would be curious about the real world logistics of such a tractor. For example, how does it know about the soil conditions and thus whether to stop or continue plowing? (Plowing wet soil is not good.) How does it sense when there's a flat tire on the plow? How does it sense when a duck foot (aka blade or chisel) has broken, come loose, etc.? What's the UX of starting or stopping it and transferring to another field? I would love to see how it handles trees, telephone/electrical poles, ditches, fences, etc. when driving and plowing. These were all things that I had to deal with or pay attention to.
- farmin 5y ago
  This is good question. Soil conditions are variable and I doubt it is sensing absolutely everything as suggested above. A better application for autonomous tractor I reckon is as optical sprayer that is linkage mounted. E.g WeedIt, Weedseeker or Deere's own solution. I think handling trees etc should not be a problem as one, these should already be mapped as part of paddock setup and two, 'seeing' unusual objects and just stopping and notifying for human intervention is pretty simple.
- z3t4 5y ago
  The simple answer is that they probably don't - yet. The software need to be hardened... If you have thousands of operational vehicles you will find the "bugs" quickly though, the question is how fast they can iterate and come up with models that identifies and handle these conditions.
- cpuguy83 5y ago
  My guess? The system is being fed real-time data from other sensors (re: soil condition). Everything else can have sensors on board, cars do this.
mrtksn 5y ago
I'm more surprised that this is not already the case as the farming machines as they commonly use GPS to precisely follow the path on the land they work on. It's also much less formidable landscape than driving autonomous vehicles among the humans. 1) The area that these machines work is already considered an insulated work space, you would not expect to have humans on the grounds when the autonomous machines operate. 2) These machines make a lot of noise and move very slowly, which would allow humans to protect themselves from machines that misbehave 3) The farming equipment is already bulky and doesn't need considerations for things like aerodynamics, which means that all kind of sensor and extra equipment can be attached. 4) The business model can tolerate cost increase, it's very common for these machines to be time shared between users. I'm looking forward for a future where being a farmer means machine management from a comfortable room. The traditional farming is so dirty and hard job that most young people are avoiding it at all cost and this is not a business that can cease to exist as farming is what makes our civilisation exist.
edward 5y ago
Self-driving tractor in 1978: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_3xS3eIHzLk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_3xS3eIHzLk
mythrwy 5y ago
I've written harvest inventory software for a couple of custom harvesting outfits. Their business model is they buy crops in the field or charge to do custom harvesting. Usually the former. I've not been onsite for one outfit but the other is close to home so I visit from time to time. The amount of equipment they have is amazing. Millions of dollars of very large equipment. They load it up and truck it around between multiple states to harvest. Point being, sometimes farmers have little or minimal equipment. They might even contract planting, spraying etc. and sell crops directly in the field. Or they might plant and cultivate but not harvest. That certainly makes this kind of thing more affordable as it ultimately spreads the cost between many farmers (with the company that owns the equipment taking a cut of course).
mattlondon 5y ago
Just out of curiosity, most ploughing tractors appear go quite slow. Is there any reason why they cannot be geared as required to plough at 50/60/70mph etc? Is there something about the actual physics of ploughing/whatever/etc that requires slowness? Or is it more the fact that it is physically very arduous for the machine and it would cost too much for both the power required and speed? Just kinda thinking along the Elon Musk line of thought around robots in a car factory - i.e. why aren't they moving so fast that all we see is a blur etc
- iam-TJ 5y ago
  Partly it's about friction and grip - ploughs are dragged through the ground at depths up to 30cm, turning the soil through 180°. The power required to do that is considerable but most critically the grip the power unit (wheeled or tracked tractor, animals) has controls speed, which depends on the conditions. In addition, as speeds increase the soil will not move smoothly over the mould-board and thus not leave a consistent result ready for the next operation.
- CamperBob2 5y ago
  Efficiency is always a consideration. There's an interesting "Mega Factories" video where they cover the Porsche factory in Leipzig that builds the Macan and Panamera [1], in which a supervisor points out that the robot arms accelerate only as quickly as they need to. They were able to trim something like 10% of the robots' energy usage just by controlling movement speed and acceleration. There are hundreds of massive robots in the factory shifting heavy objects around, so this isn't a trivial savings. Another consideration is that a 70 MPH tractor would stir up way too much dust. Topsoil would end up everywhere except where it's wanted. One valid question might be why a robotic tractor needs to be shaped like a human-driven tractor, or work like one. Maybe it'd be more effective to use an army of small drone-like machines that operate closer to the ground? 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F3FUH9fVC_M https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F3FUH9fVC_M
quanto 5y ago
AFAIK, John Deere tractors were already fairly automated, including some form of driverless navigation. Could someone in the field compare the automation level in the market currently versus what is unveiled in the article?
- farmin 5y ago
  Yes, as an operator currently you just sit in the seat and monitor in between scrolling on your phone. If fully setup, the tractor can steer itself, turn at the end of field and lift and adjust machine height. The operator is the important set of eyes making sure everything is operating as it should. Ploughing sort of suits automation as there are less things to go wrong than say planting or harvesting but as mentioned in another post, it would take a solid solution to deal with all soil conditions to make this flawless.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
B5C8ECB24DB47D1 5y ago
It got multiple awards from repair.org: https://www.repair.org/worst-in-show-2022 https://www.repair.org/worst-in-show-2022
1cvmask 5y ago
If farmers don’t want to be strangled by John Deere why do they not buy from competitors? It seems that there are so many alternatives: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_tractor_manufacturers https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_tractor_manufacturers
sn 5y ago
Related: John Deere bought two agtech startups within the last few years (Bear Flag Robotics and Blue River Technology.) https://www.futurefarming.com/machinery/john-deere-acquires-bear-flag-robotics/ https://www.futurefarming.com/machinery/john-deere-acquires-... https://agfundernews.com/breaking-exclusive-john-deere-acquires-see-spray-robotics-startup-blue-river-technology-305m.html https://agfundernews.com/breaking-exclusive-john-deere-acqui...

123 points by ohjeez 5y ago

Surely there's an auto maker who wants to deliver the Toyota corolla equivalent of tractors to the world. John Deere sounds so terrible for farmers with it's locked in anti repair machines.

farmin 5y ago
I've often thought this. Lock-in is one thing, but really just better value for money. Mahindra maybe someone to watch?

userbinator 5y ago

...that you are not allowed to fix? That's about the only thing that comes to mind when I hear "John Deere" now.

krasin 5y ago
Yes, they are making themselves vulnerable to disruption in the mid-term. Short-term, they are still golden.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

haihaibye 5y ago

Agriculture continues its long term trend of reducing needed human input. Almost everyone was once a farmer now only a few, and soon even less. This could shift the skills needed to farm more towards automation/programming tech etc

edge17 5y ago
Farming economics vary a ton from country to country. In the US there is widespread consolidation and larger farms can afford high tech machines. But in poor places where the labor is cheap it's often the case that farm plots are small and fragmented, and the economics of this type of automation don't really work. Not saying it can't, but the delivery model needs to be one where the farmer isn't bearing the cost of the machine.
aemreunal 5y ago
One of the most voiced benefits of the increased automation and efficiency through the industrial revolution (and the technological advancements today) was that we'll generate more value/goods/etc. with less human work, therefore everyone's prosperity will increase. For example, a farm that would require 20 people will require 5 with machines. We did get the increase in production efficiency but that newly-generated value was never passed on to those who did the actual work (all the way from farmers and factory works to most white collar jobs). It was captured and collected by those at the top. So now, everyone's afraid of "losing their jobs to machines" and somewhat rightly so. Instead of building machines to do our bidding while we live like royalty, we still have insane amounts of poverty despite the world generating more products/food/value than ever before in human history, with people losing their jobs and getting nothing in return.
- kube-system 5y ago
  Because the market for agriculture is competitive, the value was passed down to consumers in the form of cheaper food. Before industrialized agriculture, it was normal for food to be the largest chunk of a household's budget. It's likely also a leading cause of this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population#/media/File:World-population-1750-2015-and-un-projection-until-2100.png https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population#/media/File:W...
- skybrian 5y ago
  I think you've misunderstood the economics. In the presence of competition, productivity improvements result in lower prices.
- loceng 5y ago
  Hence why we need UBI tied to inflation and paid for with VAT - perhaps partly or fully, potentially eliminate income tax to not penalize working.
  - visarga 5y ago
    What would happen if instead of collecting tax for UBI the central bank would issue new currency? Prices would keep on raising forever, but from time to time we could cut a few zeros. The ones who hold onto cash would see their money slowly losing value, better use it or lose it. This system would be easier to implement.

tyingq 5y ago

Interesting. A much more controlled/limited environment than cars, but pretty high safety stakes when you're pulling a chisel plow.

kypro 5y ago
Let's hope it's not easy to hack... A remote controlled tractor in the wrong hands would be terrifying.
- abakker 5y ago
  More terrifying than a guy with a gun, though? Don’t get me wrong, the worst case scenario is bad. but anyone interested in creating that scenario probably has better tools at their disposal. If this tractor gets hacked, it will be to allow 3rd part spare parts.
  - fennecfoxen 5y ago
    One imagines the tractor could also be hacked destructively by some nation-state adversary. But probably not to drive places randomly and smash into things. The better attack is to change some engine settings so the entire fleet is ruined just before a big harvest, so there's no time to fix them. Attacking people with tractors just draws attention to your compromise.
    - gtvwill 5y ago
      Nah just up nutrients dose rates a few % and render the field unusable for years to come. Smash a whole fleet that has a lion's share of the market. Blammo food shortages across your country for years rather than just the few weeks waiting for machines yo be fixed.
  - gtvwill 5y ago
    Far more terrifying than a man with a gun. Hack the right part of the system and you could affect food supply for years.

Animats 5y ago

"Using the John Deere Operations Center mobile app..." So now your tractor is controlled via their network? If their server goes down, can you still farm? What if your John Deere Operations Center account has been been terminated or suspended? Here are their terms.[1] "In its sole discretion, Deere may restrict the Site or restricted areas of the Site to selected users." Farmers have been fighting for the right to repair Deere tractors. So this is Deere's response. They now claim the right to prevent tractor owners from using them. [1] https://www.deere.com/en/privacy-and-data/terms/ https://www.deere.com/en/privacy-and-data/terms/

smoyer 5y ago
Since you can't fix it yourself it will probably be in the barn waiting for an appointment at the genius bar when your account is deleted (for complaining about John Deere).
sandworm101 5y ago
Not all that different than commercial aircraft. If Boeing cuts you off from software updates or replacement parts then your ailiner is basically worthless and unable to fly within a month. Many agribusinesses are probably fine with this as a tradeoff for the decreased manning of an autonomous tractor. JD might say that the small farmers who dont like the arrangement are not its target market.
- walrus01 5y ago
  If you have a 747-400 those updates come on 1.44MB floppies
  - OnlineGladiator 5y ago
    I wasn't sure if you were joking or not. https://www.theverge.com/2020/8/11/21363122/boeing-747s-floppy-disc-updates-critical-software https://www.theverge.com/2020/8/11/21363122/boeing-747s-flop...
  - xxpor 5y ago

halpert 5y ago

Not super related, but one interesting thing mentioned in the article is that the population will increase from 8 billion to 10 billion by 2050, "increasing global food demand by 50%." Why would a 25% increase in population cause a 50% increase in food demand?

tantalor 5y ago
Food waste. Half of the food grown is thrown out instead of eaten.
- halpert 5y ago
  That doesn't make sense, unless the amount of food waste, measured as a percentage of total food, increases as the total amount of food produced increases.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- pugworthy 5y ago
  I've no facts to back that up, but my bet is that a) this is true in well off countries, and b) not true in non-well off countries.
  - tasha0663 5y ago
    I always wonder what the ideal amount of food waste is supposed to be. Zero is a post apocalyptic hellscape.
    - ggm 5y ago
      In primary production most things you don't consume yourself have either to earn income or cost you money to dispose of, and suddenly zero waste is a big win. Pig slurry has massive costs associated either with remediation of water or cartage. If you can make methane, drive a generator or heat or cool something or run pumps, and then have (in disease terms) sterile and nutrient rich water to use.. it's better. Ploughing in your unsellable fruit is said to be heartbreaking. Suicide in farmers is high. Growing less and getting a better price for it might be better than growing more but losing half the produce to skin taint or bruising. Less inputs, more value per acre worked.

pugworthy 5y ago

Dystopian versions of this are interesting to imagine. Suppose the whole Keurig's DRM idea is applied to automated farm equipment. Want to plant some seeds? They have to be from a given source. Want to plant a certain crop, you can't plant it unless it's treated with a given pesticide. Inline sensors detect exactly what you are dispensing. This all works because if you want to automate the driving, you have to integrate with the dispensing of things: seeds, fertilizers, pesticides, etc. If you don't, you need a person Of course there is a flipside where that can be used to prevent you from using illegal pesticides, as those same in-line sensors could prevent dispensing of undesired things.

loceng 5y ago
It just made me realize: why don't we have a public system that if you want to do something new it needs to be brought forward for public discussion and public policy to be set first? I do know the obvious answers to this but what are the externalized costs of not doing it, and are the trade-off worth it?
- pugworthy 5y ago
  It's a good question. In my scenario I'm basically saying that if the tractor can say yes or no for actions, then this can be used for good or bad. But who gets to define the rules for it? What is undesirable for the environment for example may be very desirable for the shareholders.
- nexuist 5y ago
  > It just made me realize: why don't we have a public system that if you want to do something new it needs to be brought forward for public discussion and public policy to be set first? Like....some type of legislative system...where they hold hearings and make laws about them? That would be sick. Some startup should definitely disrupt this space. They could fund it by charging yearly subscriptions, maybe collect them every April or something. (Jokes aside: this is supposed to be the job of regulatory agencies, but because industry has grown so powerful and been unchecked for so long it doesn't really feel like anyone has any teeth left to stop corporations like JD anymore).

jrexilius 5y ago

I am incredibly ignorant of this market but I'm struggling to figure out the value of replacing a $100k/yr tractor driver in relation to the overall margins from acres worked?... I mean. a tractor doesn't need to drive the acreage year round. The food produced per acre seems like a lot.. I'm guessing a tractor works a field a couple times a year? so 10% or less of a $100k/yr salary?.. Is this really worth it? A cross-country truck driver is limited to the amunt of cargo it can haul, and is needed constantly. I get the value there. I must be missing something on farm tractors..

nine_k 5y ago
A tractor can do other things beside plowing and seeding. Some cultures are unlike wheat and require, or benefit from, more care during vegetation. Also, the tractor can probably harvest some cultures. Farther south, several crops per year can be taken, possibly of different cultures on the same land. The tractor can work 24/7. This is very important during certain seasons when the windows of beneficial weather are small, and the effect of the conditions at that day on the whole crop is outsized. I suspect tractor operators are in short supply during such season. I can see how a robotic tractor may feel more dependable than skilled seasonal labor.
bluGill 5y ago
Where can you find someone to drive a tractor when you need it and not need to be paid the rest of the year 'when you need a driver so do all the.other farmers. When you don't nobody else in your area does either.

don-code 5y ago

While I understand and empathize with many of the concerns here in the comments (especially given John Deere's track record in being practically hostile to end users), the promise of farming equipment that can run overnight, in the absence of light, may be a top-five disruptor to agriculture, right up there with fertilizer and engines.

nexuist 5y ago
I agree. This is really awesome to see! We've known that this was possible for years now, but it's great to see it finally commercialized and ready to roll off a production line. I'm concerned about JD's involvement in this but I trust there will be plenty of competitors in this market in a short time frame.

BLO716 5y ago

Right to repair is about to see a new chapter.

rmason 5y ago

The economics of John Deere renting a fleet of tractors to farmers becomes more attractive than selling them when you can now run a tractor 24 hours per day without a human operator. That's because you can use the self driving software to accurately monitor how many acres the machine has been used on. You can start renting the tractors in the South and keep moving them North. While a farmer might use that tractor a maximum of three months a year Deere could keep them running more than double that usage. It's possible that a startup could start doing it proving the model and then get acquired by Deere.

Gustomaximus 5y ago
This exists to some extent with harvesters and planters who travel to suit the season/region so the machine gets used much longer each year than it would on one farm.

jimmar 5y ago

I like that companies are innovating and there is competition in this space. In 2018, John Deere only had 17% of the tractor market [1]. If farmer's don't like the tech, lack of repairability, etc, it seems they have plenty of other options. I don't get why some people on this thread are so upset. [1] https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/some-of-the-major-companies-dominating-the-market-studied-are-john-deere-cnh-industrial-agco-corp-kubota-corp-class-mahindra--mahindra-kuhn-group-yanmar-co-ltd-and-escorts-and-they-captured-63-of-the-market-in-2018-300991064.html https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/some-of-the-major-c...

nexuist 5y ago
> I don't get why some people on this thread are so upset. Agriculture is a critical component of a functional society. It's not a good idea to allow a few corporations to monopolize our entire food supply, and small farmers are constantly struggling to keep their heads above water. When suppliers like JD pull this BS with tech, it's a canary in the coal mine moment signaling that whoever controls JD could one day indirectly control US agriculture, which is a significant national security concern. This particular tractor seems to be completely linked to JD's cloud system, there's no way to run it locally or independently from JD. If this becomes the norm 10 years from now and every tractor relies on JD's permission to operate, what happens when JD gets hit by ransomware or attacked by hostile nation states? Every tractor in the country suddenly refuses to work and we no longer have enough food to feed everyone. This would be a manmade disaster with unimaginable consequences (although one easy to imagine one is nuclear holocaust).
syshum 5y ago
We are in the mist of one of the biggest supply chain disruptions in modern history and you have to ask why people would be upset about technology that make a critical part of human life dependent on a company that openly hostile to human rights (for which I consider right to own property a basic human right)?? You can not image a scenario where this can cause huge supply chain issue with the food supply? You can not image a scenario where this leads to further consolidation of farms into larger and larger corporations that control a larger percent of the national food supply? I am shocked more people are not upset about this.

ourmandave 5y ago

There's a farm labor shortage crisis so farmers are using tech (and a bunch of other strategies). https://agamerica.com/blog/the-impact-of-the-farm-labor-shortage/ https://agamerica.com/blog/the-impact-of-the-farm-labor-shor... How U.S. Farmers are Coping with the Labor Shortage Crisis While the USDA is working on new legislation to address these impacts, U.S farmers are turning to alternative options to compensate for their current labor shortage predicament. Smart Technology Advancements The Internet of Things (IoT) industry has exploded as farmers use innovative technology to keep up with demand and remain competitive in the global market. The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) reported 56 percent of U.S. farms have begun using agritech, with more than half stating labor shortage as the reason. Innovative agrotechnology includes, Wireless sensors; Predictive forecasting models; Advanced automation; Robotics; and Data analytics Smart farming technology allows farmers to work at full or near-full capacity with fewer workers, but not without certain drawbacks. The current technology can only accommodate certain crops, excluding nearly 200 specialty crops. This forces specialty farmers to make the difficult decision to either consolidate their operation or transition to machine-serviceable crops. Transitioning to smart farming technology also requires a high initial cost investment. This is particularly difficult for small to medium-size farms, which are the ones hit hardest by the effects of farm labor shortage. Despite these drawbacks, many U.S. farmers are realizing the investment is worth the initial cost to enhance crop quality and quantity through precision automation, pest control, and crop-health monitoring.

bmitc 5y ago

I have plowed before with tractors of this size. (Actually, the tractor I drove was larger.) The article doesn't cover it, but I would be curious about the real world logistics of such a tractor. For example, how does it know about the soil conditions and thus whether to stop or continue plowing? (Plowing wet soil is not good.) How does it sense when there's a flat tire on the plow? How does it sense when a duck foot (aka blade or chisel) has broken, come loose, etc.? What's the UX of starting or stopping it and transferring to another field? I would love to see how it handles trees, telephone/electrical poles, ditches, fences, etc. when driving and plowing. These were all things that I had to deal with or pay attention to.

farmin 5y ago
This is good question. Soil conditions are variable and I doubt it is sensing absolutely everything as suggested above. A better application for autonomous tractor I reckon is as optical sprayer that is linkage mounted. E.g WeedIt, Weedseeker or Deere's own solution. I think handling trees etc should not be a problem as one, these should already be mapped as part of paddock setup and two, 'seeing' unusual objects and just stopping and notifying for human intervention is pretty simple.
z3t4 5y ago
The simple answer is that they probably don't - yet. The software need to be hardened... If you have thousands of operational vehicles you will find the "bugs" quickly though, the question is how fast they can iterate and come up with models that identifies and handle these conditions.
cpuguy83 5y ago
My guess? The system is being fed real-time data from other sensors (re: soil condition). Everything else can have sensors on board, cars do this.

mrtksn 5y ago

I'm more surprised that this is not already the case as the farming machines as they commonly use GPS to precisely follow the path on the land they work on. It's also much less formidable landscape than driving autonomous vehicles among the humans. 1) The area that these machines work is already considered an insulated work space, you would not expect to have humans on the grounds when the autonomous machines operate. 2) These machines make a lot of noise and move very slowly, which would allow humans to protect themselves from machines that misbehave 3) The farming equipment is already bulky and doesn't need considerations for things like aerodynamics, which means that all kind of sensor and extra equipment can be attached. 4) The business model can tolerate cost increase, it's very common for these machines to be time shared between users. I'm looking forward for a future where being a farmer means machine management from a comfortable room. The traditional farming is so dirty and hard job that most young people are avoiding it at all cost and this is not a business that can cease to exist as farming is what makes our civilisation exist.

edward 5y ago

Self-driving tractor in 1978: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_3xS3eIHzLk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_3xS3eIHzLk

mythrwy 5y ago

I've written harvest inventory software for a couple of custom harvesting outfits. Their business model is they buy crops in the field or charge to do custom harvesting. Usually the former. I've not been onsite for one outfit but the other is close to home so I visit from time to time. The amount of equipment they have is amazing. Millions of dollars of very large equipment. They load it up and truck it around between multiple states to harvest. Point being, sometimes farmers have little or minimal equipment. They might even contract planting, spraying etc. and sell crops directly in the field. Or they might plant and cultivate but not harvest. That certainly makes this kind of thing more affordable as it ultimately spreads the cost between many farmers (with the company that owns the equipment taking a cut of course).

mattlondon 5y ago

Just out of curiosity, most ploughing tractors appear go quite slow. Is there any reason why they cannot be geared as required to plough at 50/60/70mph etc? Is there something about the actual physics of ploughing/whatever/etc that requires slowness? Or is it more the fact that it is physically very arduous for the machine and it would cost too much for both the power required and speed? Just kinda thinking along the Elon Musk line of thought around robots in a car factory - i.e. why aren't they moving so fast that all we see is a blur etc

iam-TJ 5y ago
Partly it's about friction and grip - ploughs are dragged through the ground at depths up to 30cm, turning the soil through 180°. The power required to do that is considerable but most critically the grip the power unit (wheeled or tracked tractor, animals) has controls speed, which depends on the conditions. In addition, as speeds increase the soil will not move smoothly over the mould-board and thus not leave a consistent result ready for the next operation.
CamperBob2 5y ago
Efficiency is always a consideration. There's an interesting "Mega Factories" video where they cover the Porsche factory in Leipzig that builds the Macan and Panamera [1], in which a supervisor points out that the robot arms accelerate only as quickly as they need to. They were able to trim something like 10% of the robots' energy usage just by controlling movement speed and acceleration. There are hundreds of massive robots in the factory shifting heavy objects around, so this isn't a trivial savings. Another consideration is that a 70 MPH tractor would stir up way too much dust. Topsoil would end up everywhere except where it's wanted. One valid question might be why a robotic tractor needs to be shaped like a human-driven tractor, or work like one. Maybe it'd be more effective to use an army of small drone-like machines that operate closer to the ground? 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F3FUH9fVC_M https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F3FUH9fVC_M

quanto 5y ago

AFAIK, John Deere tractors were already fairly automated, including some form of driverless navigation. Could someone in the field compare the automation level in the market currently versus what is unveiled in the article?

farmin 5y ago
Yes, as an operator currently you just sit in the seat and monitor in between scrolling on your phone. If fully setup, the tractor can steer itself, turn at the end of field and lift and adjust machine height. The operator is the important set of eyes making sure everything is operating as it should. Ploughing sort of suits automation as there are less things to go wrong than say planting or harvesting but as mentioned in another post, it would take a solid solution to deal with all soil conditions to make this flawless.
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B5C8ECB24DB47D1 5y ago

It got multiple awards from repair.org: https://www.repair.org/worst-in-show-2022 https://www.repair.org/worst-in-show-2022

1cvmask 5y ago

If farmers don’t want to be strangled by John Deere why do they not buy from competitors? It seems that there are so many alternatives: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_tractor_manufacturers https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_tractor_manufacturers

sn 5y ago

Related: John Deere bought two agtech startups within the last few years (Bear Flag Robotics and Blue River Technology.) https://www.futurefarming.com/machinery/john-deere-acquires-bear-flag-robotics/ https://www.futurefarming.com/machinery/john-deere-acquires-... https://agfundernews.com/breaking-exclusive-john-deere-acquires-see-spray-robotics-startup-blue-river-technology-305m.html https://agfundernews.com/breaking-exclusive-john-deere-acqui...