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Coming Clean
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- roca 5y agoTaking everything written at face value, a big problem with the author's thinking is that they ask "Did we have a complete picture of what the vaccines did, or were we standing on top of an iceberg with lots of information still lurking underneath?" but they do not seem to have the same concern about the virus. And that's strange, because there is ample evidence that SARS-CoV-2 infection is producing long-term effects in a lot of people, so we probably don't have a "complete picture of what the virus does".
- lstodd 5y ago"Is the cure deadlier than the disease" is a long-standing question. It was in fact deadlier for milennia. It's still not "settled".
- rpadovani 5y agoWell, it is for COVID tho, vaccines definitely caused less deaths than the disease.
- lstodd 5y agoif you delve deep enough into mathematical statistics, as in the theory and methods, you will realise that your statement does not mean that there would have been more deaths without any vaccine. It's that sort of 7th Seal [0] funny. And it means that the response as it was might have been a deadly mistake. edit: but as of now we just don't know. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Seventh_Seal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Seventh_Seal
- roca 5y agoThis has nothing to do with what I said.
- lstodd 5y agoMaybe mostly because you did not articulate any link between long-term effects and vaccination. I do not think this was researched at all.
- zem 5y agoone of the more sobering things i've read with regards to the current situation is that everything we associate with polio is actually "long polio". and the long covid data is pretty sparse right now.
- DarylZero 5y ago
- jonahbenton 5y agoLong piece that misreads and misunderstands both data and policy. Too bad.
- throw10920 5y agoMeanwhile, the above is a short comment that handwaves away the entire article without refuting any specific points or adding anything of value to the conversation whatsoever, while maintaining a condescending tone despite lack of any meaningful content.
- skeeter2020 5y agoThe same as yours, from a throw away account no less! To dig into the particulars is to acknowledge some form of legitimacy. The author is welcome to publish whatever they want, but we're under no obligation to accept any of it before discarding. The same rules go both ways.
- 5co 5y ago
- throw10920 5y ago> The same as yours False. GP comment and mine are not remotely comparable. GP comment has all of the failures I described - handwavy, lacking in value, condescending. Mine points out those specific problems with that comment - which the GP failed to do for the article - and avoids its specific mistakes. Yours, too, is handwavy, lacking in value, inaccurate, and anti-intellectual. Statements like: > To dig into the particulars is to acknowledge some form of legitimacy. and > we're under no obligation to accept any of it before discarding. ...are some of the most anti-intellectual, anti-discussion, close-minded, tribal content that I have ever seen on HN. Accusations of being a "throw away account" aren't even accurate - I made this account almost three months ago and have made hundreds of comments using it. This is my account. Unless you mean "anonymous" - in which case your account also applies. ...not that that observation would have been relevant to the discussion anyway. It does not matter whether I use a throwaway account, as long as I'm not breaking the HN rules or abusing the platform (which I try very hard to avoid).
- Domenic_S 5y agoThere are a few leaps of logic that the author thinks follow naturally but don't; for example: > I looked at the global picture and thought, well it’s clear that the vaccines aren’t stopping the spread of disease. It looks like getting vaccinated is moving towards becoming more of a personal health decision than a public health necessity Vaccination reduces hospitalization by 96% [0], which is a public health necessity. I don't have time to share all the instances I saw of this magical thinking, but they're in there. [0] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanam/article/PIIS2667-193X(21)00061-2/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanam/article/PIIS2667-19...
- andrelaszlo 5y ago"And also that I could likely do just as much to protect those around me by continuing to only see people outside, wear a mask, etc. [...] I don’t know how we got Covid, since we were continuing to be pretty careful / anti-social." I read this as "I thought crossing my fingers would help me avoid getting sick, going against the general advice in basically all countries in the world, and for some weird reason it didn't work!". Just because you manage to find figures that confuse you, or back up your previously held beliefs, you get to say "the experts don't agree"? Your inability, as an engineer - not a medical professional, to make sense of seemingly conflicting data, gives you the right to proclaim that? "I’m worried that if we don’t get off this path soon, it’s going to get harder and harder to turn back. And I don’t want to see where that ends up. At the end of the day we’re all just trying to do our best." - what if you're the problem? Sometimes I think intelligence is mostly about the ability to rationalize your decisions.
- skeeter2020 5y ago
- kelseyfrog 5y agoSave yourself a few minutes and skip to the end where the author makes the argument: If I vaccinate now, then I will be encouraging vaccine mandates in the future. It really comes across as "if anyone tells me what to do, I'm going to do the opposite because if I comply they can tell me what to do again in the future." I get that this mindset is prevalent, but I have no idea where it comes from. Anyone with a similar outlook on life have a chance to shed some light on it? Was there a pivotal event or a series of situations that accumulate? Having not gone through that, it's hard to relate.
- xboxnolifes 5y agoI think it's a fairly logical outlook coming from a few assumptions. If we assume: (1) Political policy is largely outside of an individual's control. (2) Political policy is more likely to be proposed when it is more favored by the masses (less backlash). (3) Opposite of (2), political policy is less likely to be proposed if it seems less favorable to the masses, even if those in power think it's a good outcome. (4) Legislatures take perceived public opinion into account when deciding to propose policy. Then, if you believe a vaccine mandate is likely to be accepted in the current political climate, and you are against a vaccine mandate (due to bodily autonomy or something), then you may not want to contribute to perceived mass support by contributing to higher vaccine numbers, even if you support the vaccine itself.
- Domenic_S 5y agoBut the COVID-specific position isn't logically consistent. The author tells us in passing that they got a yellow fever vaccine, which is required -- or "mandated", if you will -- for travel to many African countries [0]. US schools, universities, child care facilities, and the military have mandated many vaccines for decades. George freakin' Washington mandated smallpox inoculation [1] for the continental army. I truly can't understand why a COVID vaccine mandate, and only a COVID vaccine mandate, is suddenly tyranny. [0] https://africacdc.org/disease/yellow-fever/ https://africacdc.org/disease/yellow-fever/ [1] https://www.governing.com/now/the-long-history-of-mandated-vaccines-in-the-united-states https://www.governing.com/now/the-long-history-of-mandated-v...
- mindslight 5y agoWelcome to authoritarianism - it's a mutually-occuring quality. People pick their chosen leadership from the set of available options and line up to follow them. Once that happens, any remaining assumption of good faith disappears - if someone is doing something "wrong" then the assumption becomes that they're following the wrong leader rather than for something that could be empathized with. Politically I've been dealing with this for decades as a libertarian - whether talking to someone from the blue tribe or from the red tribe, I always end up being othered because even though I mostly agree with where they're coming from, I don't accept the blind spots buttressing their Party's business-sponsored Kool Aid. For Covid in the US, the authoritarianism was really kicked into overdrive by Trump's decision to reject reality and expert opinions, deny there was any problem that needed addressing, and politicize what would otherwise be common sense like wearing a respirator to protect yourself. Once such a big lie became a mainstream political rallying cry, the authoritarian cards had been dealt and were here to stay. At this point I'm too burnt out to deal with extra sources of uncertainty (including just rolling the dice by choosing to get Covid). Vaccination status is a good first pass at telling if someone has been taking the pandemic seriously. Perhaps if I had a good friend who was unvaccinated I'd inquire about their respirator usage and exposure profile (it might even be lower than vaccinated people sending their kids to municipal daycare!). But really any extra exposure is unnecessary at this point, so apart from visiting older family and the like I'll hole up for the winter and revisit in the spring when casual meetings can occur in open air. This pulling back is of course a general response to social breakdown, and I do hope that breakdown stops at some point.
- rpadovani 5y agoEuropean here. > Or perhaps at a minimum we’ll recognize natural immunity is at least as good as these vaccines? Yes, for some months, and then it decades. And that's the only thing that you can save from the article. > The vaccines continued to do great at preventing hospitalizations and deaths, but there was now no doubt that they weren’t going to contain the spread. Ditto. So you have a duty to get vaccinated. Everything else, all your hours reading papers[0], this wall of text, all your excuses, are a way to easy your conscience. You are selfish, and you put yourself in front of your community. I'm probably biased: I come from North Italy, I've seen the army removing corpses from hospitals 'cause they were just too many: I've seen what the virus can do if it finds the right conditions, and I've a lot of friends working in hospitals. This winter has been way better, and the strain on the health system way lower. If you don't do your part, you care more about yourself[1] than about the society around yourself. It is only right if the society answers in the same way, and cut you out. [0] is that useful in any way? I cannot say I understand papers that are not from my field, but here the author seems to be able to read papers from a totally different field without problems [1] Better: you care more about what you think is _safer_ for yourself. Not what actually is. To avoid an almost null risk in the future, you put your community at risk
- lstodd 5y ago> Yes, for some months, and then it decades. Degrades? Surely it does. What about the one from any one of the vaccines? It does just the same. > I come from North Italy Mismanagement and ignorance produces heroes and corpses. This is a long-known fact. I'm sorry, but Italy fucked it up just as bad if not worse as NYC, in the beginning. This has nothing to do with any particular virus, vaccines, community or duty. Just incompetence. Please accept that maybe people might know better how to actually care about their community.
- CRConrad 5y ago> Please accept that maybe people might know better how to actually care about their community. Please accept that some perhaps don't.
- aappleby 5y agoBelieving yourself capable of making rational decisions about something the experts are still studying is a peculiar sort of fallacy.
- aidenn0 5y agoSurely rational decisions do not require perfect knowledge?
- secretsatan 5y agoAuthor seems to miss the problem of hospital capacity completely, at least where i am, this is the biggest driver of restrictions, when it looks like hospitals are going to run out out beds, restrictions are increased, as capacity increases again, restrictions are relaxed. So, not getting vaccinated is not just a personal choice, and i’m not sure the risk of dying is the same as the risk of being hospitalized. And assesing risks of getting one disease over another fails to take into account it is a new disease and is an addition to existing risks, not an either/or situation. If the unvaccinated also refuse hospital treatment, maybe they can claim it’s a personal choice
- ntlind 5y agoCompletely agree. ICUs in my city are at 98% capacity, creating life-threatening situations for both patients and providers. IMO, the author makes a compelling case for why vaccines should be mandatory: people significantly underweight the negative societal externalities of not getting vaccinated.
- HKH2 5y agoRobert Malone, the inventor of mRNA vaccines, makes many compelling cases why they should not be mandatory.
- avanderveen 5y agoThere were many people over many studies that were responsible for mRNA vaccines and you don't hear them agreeing. Robert Malone had a small contribution early on. He's probably stirring controversy for publicity's sake.
- HKH2 5y agoHe has said that a lot of people involved have a conflict of interest, and that physicians are being suppressed.
- DanielleMolloy 5y ago
- 8note 5y agoI've got the freedom of association. I'll other anyone I want thank you very much. The concern about precedent is ridiculous. The precedent was already set hundreds of years ago; we aren't breaking new ground here with vaccine mandates
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- lazyant 5y ago"We don't know the long-term effects of the vaccine, which is kind of a small dose of the virus itself that we know has long effects but who knows, the vaccine may be worse. I'll disregard the known good effects of the vaccine preventing hospitalization and saving lives directly or indirectly. People should decide to put others at risk as a personal choice. Also being in the oppressed minority makes me feel like Spartacus".
- api 5y agoI don’t think more rebuttal is needed than this. You can find a lot more statistics that say the same thing. https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards/covid-19-vaccine/breakthrough-dashboard?fbclid=IwAR1pTdREFmSkke5WyES65K0VI_QkWZXAuzXanZ-MzX7hM0lqsbwdCVpv93I https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboa... This fellow is obviously highly intelligent. Intelligence doesn’t automatically give a person good ideas any more than a big engine makes you a good driver. I have met extremely intelligent people who think we faked the moon landings, that the Earth is only 6000 years old, and so on. It’s a big reason I am not on board with the cult of IQ.
- DanielleMolloy 5y agoThis is a rational, data-driven piece of writing, even by a software engineer, and in the past (I’ve been here for over ten years) it would have fit very well into this community. It is a call for more communication and understanding of different opinions. Since I’ve posted it this article got flagged and unflagged multiple times, the first flag appeared within minutes (i.e. the user pressing the button did not even have a chance to read the article). I wonder what made people so aggressive and short-tempered about different points of view recently.
- throwaway19937 5y ago> It is a call for more communication and understanding of different opinions. It's a poorly argued rationalization for antisocial behavior from someone with a bad case of engineer's disease. > Since I’ve posted it this article got flagged and unflagged multiple times, the first flag appeared within minutes (i.e. the user pressing the button did not even have a chance to read the article). You don't have to eat the whole apple to know it's bad. > I wonder what made people so aggressive and short-tempered about different points of view recently. It might have something to do with the ongoing pandemic. I'm really not interested in yet another article from someone who's too precious to be vaccinated.
- dang 5y agoYou broke the site guidelines with this comment and https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29828751 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29828751. We ban accounts that do that, so please stop doing that. The message in your profile implies that the account is using HN primarily for political and ideological battle. That's not allowed, and we ban accounts that do it, regardless of their politics or ideology, because it's not what this site is for and it destroys what it is for. So please don't do that either. More explanation here: https://hn.algolia.com/?sort=byDate&dateRange=all&type=comment&storyText=false&prefix=false&page=0&query=primarily%20test%20by:dang https://hn.algolia.com/?sort=byDate&dateRange=all&type=comme... https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&query=by%3Adang%20bimodal%20battle&sort=byDate&type=comment https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&que...
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- throwaway19937 5y ago[flagged]
- DanielleMolloy 5y ago