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Tesla Q4 2021 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

ec109685 5y ago
Some context: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/02/tesla-tsla-q4-2021-vehicle-delivery-and-production-numbers.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/02/tesla-tsla-q4-2021-vehicle-d... They handily beat delivery expectations. “Tesla deliveries amounted to 308,600 electric cars in the fourth quarter and full-year deliveries amounted to 936,172 vehicles.” “According to a consensus compiled by FactSet, Wall Street analysts had anticipated Tesla deliveries of 267,000 in the fourth quarter and 897,000 for all of 2021.”
- toomuchtodo 5y ago
  Almost hit 1 million vehicles/year. Should easily hit 2 million/year with Austin and Berlin coming online next quarter (Austin is already validating the manufacturing lines). Go Tesla Go.
  - _ph_ 5y ago
    Also the 300k cars produced in the last quarter means, that with the current factories they are already operating at 1.2 million cars/year capacity. A very strong position.
- new_realist 5y ago
  Tesla's investor relations department leaks these sandbagged estimates to the press at the end of every quarter so that they can beat them. It's an old game.
  - svet_0 5y ago
    That's a ridiculous assessment.
  - gazarullz 5y ago
    do you have any way to back your statement? otherwise it’s just dust in the wind
laluser 5y ago
The interesting thing with Tesla is that they are supply limited at the moment. Demand for outpaces their supply for the foreseeable future.
- amelius 5y ago
  Competition has the same problem, I guess.
  - Iolaum 5y ago
    I m wondering, Is this also true if we only look at EVs?
    - YXNjaGVyZWdlbgo 5y ago
      Yes, look at Mercedes and Hyundai numbers.
- ProAm 5y ago
  Demand is outpacing supply for almost every auto manufacturer right now.
- RivieraKid 5y ago
  If they increased prices, they would stop being supply-limited.
  - laluser 5y ago
    They seem keep doing just that.
  - elif 5y ago
    They tried about 30 times in 2021. What actually happens is quite interesting. Ironically, when they increase the price, it encourages more reservations as consumers seek to lock in the current price of an appreciating value.
kubatyszko 5y ago
What is puzzling to me, is that despite beating delivery expectations (meaning they did make and deliver more cars than planned), the delivery of my model X I'm in the line for did get pushed back from January to February. Something doesn't make sense...
- svet_0 5y ago
  > Something doesn't make sense How so? 96% of deliveries are 3/Y, Tesla probably delivered less than 1K X's this quarter since they're still ramping production of the refresh S/X. A month or two of delays for the X production is negligible.
- FireBeyond 5y ago
  And we have stories of people being told that a vehicle was "found" that matched their reservation, so they could get their vehicle. What that really meant was someone else had rejected delivery of that specific vehicle. But Tesla wanted "delivery acceptance" if you wanted a chance to look over that vehicle. They're like everyone else, push hard to make the numbers, screw the QA. https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/rtr21m/buying_a_tesla_model_s_has_been_a_nightmare/ https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/rtr21m/buying_a_...
  - svet_0 5y ago
    > What that really meant was someone else had rejected delivery of that specific vehicle. Do you think they should scrap the vehicle if the original buyer rejects it? Of course they will deliver it to a different customer. > They're like everyone else, push hard to make the numbers, screw the QA. That's the usual Tesla FUD - If they don't make the numbers - busted growth story. If they do - their QA sucks.
    - FireBeyond 5y ago
      Eh, their QA absolutely does suck. That’s not FUD at this point.
joenathanone 5y ago
I own a 2013 S85, and a 2018 LR 3. I'm looking to get a new X in 2022 and letting go of the other two. My 2 cents, biggest pros of Tesla ownership is the tech, I'm constantly using AP and the FSD Beta, and the biggest cons being fit and finish, Tesla's do not have the fit and finish matching their price tags.
- rootusrootus 5y ago
  I've had a P3D. If I get another Tesla it will be because of the charging network. No other reason. The competition is producing cars that have normal car features that work. I want normal wipers, or at least traditional rain-sensing that works. I want CarPlay. Comfortable seats, dash screen (in front of the driver), normal door handles, HUD, analog controls for certain things, etc. The regular manufacturers have built up a huge amount of experience in those areas and until Tesla steps it up the rest of their tech isn't going to make me into a repeat customer. Especially when they do dumb things like remove the radar and double down on trying to make the cheap cameras do even more tasks inadequately. Traditional manufacturers have lane keeping and adaptive cruise too. "FSD" doesn't tempt me in the slightest.
  - abc_lisper 5y ago
    There is tendency to suppress this in discussions, but Model 3 sucks in so many ways - everything rattles, even a empty coffee cup in the holder. The car is good as long as I drive on a smooth road. The seats are not very comfortable, the car is absolutely stripped of any artistic detail. On the other hand, AP rocks(invaluable in high traffic commutes like bay area), and I don’t think other cars do it just as confidently. And it keeps updating. The steering is extremely precise and handles like a champ in corners. It feels like we have a to choose between traditional comfort and tech, which sucks. It’s almost like it is a specialist car like a subaru wrx
    - rootusrootus 5y ago
      I had relatively good experience in mine for rattles -- just the usual dash rattle from something to do with the HVAC. But I only owned it 18 months, and most cars are really solid for the first few years anyway. I had really great luck early on with AP but ended up not using it much towards the end of my ownership experience because my wife didn't want me using it on road trips -- too many panic braking events on our usual route. Something changed in the algorithms, they may have worked that out by now. > we have a to choose between traditional comfort and tech, which sucks 100% agree. Choosing any car comes with some amount of give & take, but right now with EVs there seems to be a major subset of features you have to give up depending on which option you go with. My dream daily driver would be if the Model Y got the driver screen and analog(ish) knob that Ford put on the Mach E, and a pair of Recaro seats. And CarPlay, ha! I'd buy that today. But if I were looking right now for something in that segment I'd probably end up with a Mach E and I'd just deal with the less convenient road-trip charging (99% of the time I charge at home anyway).
InTheArena 5y ago
While the Bull case has not been proven for Tesla, The Bear case is laughably bad at this point.
- DSingularity 5y ago
  The possibility massive overvaluations across tech shouldn’t be totally discounted. Yeah, you might miss out doubling your money in the next five years if you sit out but you could also avoid halving your money in the next 30 years. It all depends on what kind of investor you are and where you are in your financial planning. At some point growth stocks have to stop being growth stocks.
  - scottiebarnes 5y ago
    > At some point growth stocks have to stop being growth stocks. Debatable. AMZN would like to have a word
    - sroussey 5y ago
      Last downturn for tech, AMZN dropped over 80%
- tjr225 5y ago
  Laughably bad? Ford sold just about as much, if not more, F150s in 2021 and that’s just one of their models. Taken into even the slightest context Tesla could seem massively overvalued- and I say that as someone who likes their product.
  - 8jy89hui 5y ago
    I keep seeing this a Tesla vs. Ford qualitative comparison, so here is a more quantitative comparison: Ford's 2020 Q4 report [0] indicates a sales rate of ~2M cars / yr. The entire Ford truck brand sold around 1.1 M trucks [0] that year (2020) and 1.2 the year before (2019). Fordauthority.com (who may or may not be authoritative...) says that Ford is/was running slightly worse sales this year than last year [1]. However I don't think Ford has published their numbers for 2021 yet. Personal Opinion: Given Tesla's ramp of ~70%/yr, is it not absurd to think that Tesla will pass Ford's truck sales numbers within the next year and all of Ford's sales numbers within the next 2-3 years. (This is assuming lack of innovation on Ford's part. If Ford innovates with e-trucks then it will probably take a lot longer for Tesla to catch up) [0]: https://media.ford.com/content/dam/fordmedia/North%20America/US/2021/01/06/ford-sales-release-dec2020.pdf https://media.ford.com/content/dam/fordmedia/North%20America... [1]: https://fordauthority.com/2021/10/ford-motor-company-sales-numbers-figures-results-september-2021-usa/ https://fordauthority.com/2021/10/ford-motor-company-sales-n...
black_13 5y ago
terafo 5y ago
Wondering how recall of half of the millions vehicles will affect their production in 2022.
- svet_0 5y ago
  It won't. The recall is relatively minor (reverse cam wire harness protection/positioning and hood attachment mechanism adjustment) and can be quickly fixed with mobile service. Additionally the root cause on the assembly line was fixed over a year ago.
  - sroussey 5y ago
    So they knew about it for a year before doing the recall…
    - svet_0 5y ago
      No. General design and manufacturing improvements often fix collateral issues.
- hw 5y ago
  Recall is insignificant and likely fixable by mobile service.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

Some context: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/02/tesla-tsla-q4-2021-vehicle-delivery-and-production-numbers.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/02/tesla-tsla-q4-2021-vehicle-d... They handily beat delivery expectations. “Tesla deliveries amounted to 308,600 electric cars in the fourth quarter and full-year deliveries amounted to 936,172 vehicles.” “According to a consensus compiled by FactSet, Wall Street analysts had anticipated Tesla deliveries of 267,000 in the fourth quarter and 897,000 for all of 2021.”

toomuchtodo 5y ago
Almost hit 1 million vehicles/year. Should easily hit 2 million/year with Austin and Berlin coming online next quarter (Austin is already validating the manufacturing lines). Go Tesla Go.
- _ph_ 5y ago
  Also the 300k cars produced in the last quarter means, that with the current factories they are already operating at 1.2 million cars/year capacity. A very strong position.
new_realist 5y ago
Tesla's investor relations department leaks these sandbagged estimates to the press at the end of every quarter so that they can beat them. It's an old game.
- svet_0 5y ago
  That's a ridiculous assessment.
- gazarullz 5y ago
  do you have any way to back your statement? otherwise it’s just dust in the wind

laluser 5y ago

The interesting thing with Tesla is that they are supply limited at the moment. Demand for outpaces their supply for the foreseeable future.

amelius 5y ago
Competition has the same problem, I guess.
- Iolaum 5y ago
  I m wondering, Is this also true if we only look at EVs?
  - YXNjaGVyZWdlbgo 5y ago
    Yes, look at Mercedes and Hyundai numbers.
ProAm 5y ago
Demand is outpacing supply for almost every auto manufacturer right now.
RivieraKid 5y ago
If they increased prices, they would stop being supply-limited.
- laluser 5y ago
  They seem keep doing just that.
- elif 5y ago
  They tried about 30 times in 2021. What actually happens is quite interesting. Ironically, when they increase the price, it encourages more reservations as consumers seek to lock in the current price of an appreciating value.

kubatyszko 5y ago

What is puzzling to me, is that despite beating delivery expectations (meaning they did make and deliver more cars than planned), the delivery of my model X I'm in the line for did get pushed back from January to February. Something doesn't make sense...

svet_0 5y ago
> Something doesn't make sense How so? 96% of deliveries are 3/Y, Tesla probably delivered less than 1K X's this quarter since they're still ramping production of the refresh S/X. A month or two of delays for the X production is negligible.
FireBeyond 5y ago
And we have stories of people being told that a vehicle was "found" that matched their reservation, so they could get their vehicle. What that really meant was someone else had rejected delivery of that specific vehicle. But Tesla wanted "delivery acceptance" if you wanted a chance to look over that vehicle. They're like everyone else, push hard to make the numbers, screw the QA. https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/rtr21m/buying_a_tesla_model_s_has_been_a_nightmare/ https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/rtr21m/buying_a_...
- svet_0 5y ago
  > What that really meant was someone else had rejected delivery of that specific vehicle. Do you think they should scrap the vehicle if the original buyer rejects it? Of course they will deliver it to a different customer. > They're like everyone else, push hard to make the numbers, screw the QA. That's the usual Tesla FUD - If they don't make the numbers - busted growth story. If they do - their QA sucks.
  - FireBeyond 5y ago
    Eh, their QA absolutely does suck. That’s not FUD at this point.

joenathanone 5y ago

I own a 2013 S85, and a 2018 LR 3. I'm looking to get a new X in 2022 and letting go of the other two. My 2 cents, biggest pros of Tesla ownership is the tech, I'm constantly using AP and the FSD Beta, and the biggest cons being fit and finish, Tesla's do not have the fit and finish matching their price tags.

rootusrootus 5y ago
I've had a P3D. If I get another Tesla it will be because of the charging network. No other reason. The competition is producing cars that have normal car features that work. I want normal wipers, or at least traditional rain-sensing that works. I want CarPlay. Comfortable seats, dash screen (in front of the driver), normal door handles, HUD, analog controls for certain things, etc. The regular manufacturers have built up a huge amount of experience in those areas and until Tesla steps it up the rest of their tech isn't going to make me into a repeat customer. Especially when they do dumb things like remove the radar and double down on trying to make the cheap cameras do even more tasks inadequately. Traditional manufacturers have lane keeping and adaptive cruise too. "FSD" doesn't tempt me in the slightest.
- abc_lisper 5y ago
  There is tendency to suppress this in discussions, but Model 3 sucks in so many ways - everything rattles, even a empty coffee cup in the holder. The car is good as long as I drive on a smooth road. The seats are not very comfortable, the car is absolutely stripped of any artistic detail. On the other hand, AP rocks(invaluable in high traffic commutes like bay area), and I don’t think other cars do it just as confidently. And it keeps updating. The steering is extremely precise and handles like a champ in corners. It feels like we have a to choose between traditional comfort and tech, which sucks. It’s almost like it is a specialist car like a subaru wrx
  - rootusrootus 5y ago
    I had relatively good experience in mine for rattles -- just the usual dash rattle from something to do with the HVAC. But I only owned it 18 months, and most cars are really solid for the first few years anyway. I had really great luck early on with AP but ended up not using it much towards the end of my ownership experience because my wife didn't want me using it on road trips -- too many panic braking events on our usual route. Something changed in the algorithms, they may have worked that out by now. > we have a to choose between traditional comfort and tech, which sucks 100% agree. Choosing any car comes with some amount of give & take, but right now with EVs there seems to be a major subset of features you have to give up depending on which option you go with. My dream daily driver would be if the Model Y got the driver screen and analog(ish) knob that Ford put on the Mach E, and a pair of Recaro seats. And CarPlay, ha! I'd buy that today. But if I were looking right now for something in that segment I'd probably end up with a Mach E and I'd just deal with the less convenient road-trip charging (99% of the time I charge at home anyway).

InTheArena 5y ago

While the Bull case has not been proven for Tesla, The Bear case is laughably bad at this point.

DSingularity 5y ago
The possibility massive overvaluations across tech shouldn’t be totally discounted. Yeah, you might miss out doubling your money in the next five years if you sit out but you could also avoid halving your money in the next 30 years. It all depends on what kind of investor you are and where you are in your financial planning. At some point growth stocks have to stop being growth stocks.
- scottiebarnes 5y ago
  > At some point growth stocks have to stop being growth stocks. Debatable. AMZN would like to have a word
  - sroussey 5y ago
    Last downturn for tech, AMZN dropped over 80%
tjr225 5y ago
Laughably bad? Ford sold just about as much, if not more, F150s in 2021 and that’s just one of their models. Taken into even the slightest context Tesla could seem massively overvalued- and I say that as someone who likes their product.
- 8jy89hui 5y ago
  I keep seeing this a Tesla vs. Ford qualitative comparison, so here is a more quantitative comparison: Ford's 2020 Q4 report [0] indicates a sales rate of ~2M cars / yr. The entire Ford truck brand sold around 1.1 M trucks [0] that year (2020) and 1.2 the year before (2019). Fordauthority.com (who may or may not be authoritative...) says that Ford is/was running slightly worse sales this year than last year [1]. However I don't think Ford has published their numbers for 2021 yet. Personal Opinion: Given Tesla's ramp of ~70%/yr, is it not absurd to think that Tesla will pass Ford's truck sales numbers within the next year and all of Ford's sales numbers within the next 2-3 years. (This is assuming lack of innovation on Ford's part. If Ford innovates with e-trucks then it will probably take a lot longer for Tesla to catch up) [0]: https://media.ford.com/content/dam/fordmedia/North%20America/US/2021/01/06/ford-sales-release-dec2020.pdf https://media.ford.com/content/dam/fordmedia/North%20America... [1]: https://fordauthority.com/2021/10/ford-motor-company-sales-numbers-figures-results-september-2021-usa/ https://fordauthority.com/2021/10/ford-motor-company-sales-n...

black_13 5y ago

terafo 5y ago

Wondering how recall of half of the millions vehicles will affect their production in 2022.

svet_0 5y ago
It won't. The recall is relatively minor (reverse cam wire harness protection/positioning and hood attachment mechanism adjustment) and can be quickly fixed with mobile service. Additionally the root cause on the assembly line was fixed over a year ago.
- sroussey 5y ago
  So they knew about it for a year before doing the recall…
  - svet_0 5y ago
    No. General design and manufacturing improvements often fix collateral issues.
hw 5y ago
Recall is insignificant and likely fixable by mobile service.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]