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> Searching my inbox, I found an email from April 16, 2020 where I told someone who’d me asked that the lab-leak hypothesis seemed entirely plausible to me, tha

> Searching my inbox, I found an email from April 16, 2020 where I told someone who’d me asked that the lab-leak hypothesis seemed entirely plausible to me, that in fact I couldn’t understand why it wasn’t being investigated more, but that I was hesitant to blog about these matters. As I wrote seven months ago, I now see my lack of courage as having been a personal failing. Obviously, I’m just a quantum computing theorist, not a biologist, so I don’t have to have any opinion at all about the origin of COVID-19 … but I did, and I didn’t share it only because of the likelihood that I’d be called an idiot on social media. Having now read Chan and Ridley, though, I think I’d take being called an idiot for this book review more as a positive signal about my courage than as a negative signal about my reasoning skills! The groupthink around the lab leak hypothesis, and especially that letter signed by scientists in the early days of the pandemic, has done a lot of damage. The problem is that is isn't just this topic. About a dozen other topics have become minefields of politics and mind control masquerading as science. We only see the idiocy of this approach in the case of the lab leak because the consensus has crumbled. Hopefully, this won't be the last wall to fall under its own weight.

dnautics 5y ago
"that letter signed by scientists" does not do justice to the fact that the organizer of that letter had a severe conflict of interest that he failed to disclose. Like why the hell would a scientist not disclose that??! Having been a scientist myself it boggles the mind.
- zachlatta 5y ago
  Can someone link the mentioned letter? Having trouble finding it.
  - willhinsa 5y ago
    Here is the letter[0], and the researcher in question with a huge conflict of interest is Peter Daszak[1]. [0] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30418-9/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... [1] https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n2414 https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n2414
    - thedrbrian 5y ago
      It’s not just Daszak either, 26 of the 27 signatories had links. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/09/10/revealed-scientists-dismissed-wuhan-lab-theory-linked-chinese/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/09/10/revealed-scienti...
    - thisoneistheone 5y ago
  - nkurz 5y ago
    I think it's "Statement in support of the scientists, public health professionals, and medical professionals of China combatting COVID-19" in the Lancet from Feb 19 2020: The rapid, open, and transparent sharing of data on this outbreak is now being threatened by rumours and misinformation around its origins. We stand together to strongly condemn conspiracy theories suggesting that COVID-19 does not have a natural origin. ... We declare no competing interests. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30418-9/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... They later published an "Addendum: competing interests and the origins of SARS-CoV-2" in June 2021: Peter Daszak has expanded on his disclosure statements for three pieces relating to COVID-19 that he co-authored or contributed to in The Lancet—the February, 2020, Correspondence, as well as a Commission Statement and a Comment for the Lancet COVID-19 Commission. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01377-5/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...
- rapsey 5y ago
  > Like why the hell would a scientist not disclose that? Because they are trying to avoid getting lynched?
  - petre 5y ago
    Daszak is already getting lynched, at least mediatically. Do a search in his name on ddg, see what the top result is. I'd say it's a crackpot website but in fact it seems it was all written by a covid19 victim. I'd probably move to an Antarctic research station until people forget, as opposed to confortably living in a country where every crackpot and their neighbour has access to firearms.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
    - thom 5y ago
      Perhaps the Antarctic wouldn’t currently be very welcoming: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59848160 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59848160
- bryanrasmussen 5y ago
  reading the description of the conflict and paraphrasing Upton Sinclair I would say it is hard for someone to admit a conflict, if their continuing access to funding is dependent on keeping it hidden.
  - dnautics 5y ago
    I reread aaronsons blogpost more carefully and I take back my "??!". Daszak is very possibly avoiding the trauma of having had the experience of trying to save lives and ending up resulting in -15m lives saved. That's a unique experience in human existence that goes even beyond the Sinclair quote. I can't honestly say I wouldn't do the same thing, and I've historically done the right thing -- issued corrections two of the n < 10 papers I have to my name.
    - bryanrasmussen 5y ago
      ok, perhaps I'm in a bad mood this morning, which makes me generally prone to cynicism.
- ekianjo 5y ago
  thats called corruption. Scientists can be corrupted as well.
- emmelaich 5y ago
  Especially when Daszak himself had warned that the research was risky, in 2015 and Nov 2019. https://twitter.com/__ice9/status/1344832354100125699 https://twitter.com/__ice9/status/1344832354100125699
- dekhn 5y ago
  I get the feeling a lot of very successful scientists got to where they are by cutting moral corners where other scientists wouldn't.
- sundarurfriend 5y ago
  And there's as yet no academic/systemic consequence for them not declaring this blatant conflict of interest. That sends a big bold message to future scientists considering whether or not to declare them honestly.
animal_spirits 5y ago
I got into a slightly heated argument with my mother when she claimed that "China had manufactured the virus in a lab" - I didn't even consider the possibility of virus manufacture for study and a possible leak happening, I just assumed she was being fed propaganda that this was the beginning of some kind of bio-war being started by China. So that is my failing, and after reading more about the lab-leak hypothesis I learned to hold my tongue and be curious about such left-field claims instead of judgemental
- johnnylambada 5y ago
  I hope you looped your mother into your new insights!
  - thelittleone 5y ago
    Indeed. one of my favorite learnings in life is the power of admitting when I'm wrong (which is often enough). Quite an empowering decision and also relationahip building. However there are times when people find it so unusual that they see it as weakness and instead of admitting their own wrong, try to capitalise on an opprtunity (perceived weakness). One exception though is playing chess online, where my ego is yet to be mastered.
    - animal_spirits 5y ago
      We can find strength from being vulnerable
    - strictfp 5y ago
      I use self-deprecating humor a lot. And some people, usually the ones who don't pick up on the irony, also use it as an opportunity to attack. It's quite sad when you think about it :)
- temporalparts 5y ago
  One of my favorite fallacies is the fallacy fallacy. Just because one used fallacious reasoning, doesn't mean they're wrong. e.g. I can give a bad reason for why 16/64 = 1/4, just cross out the 6's, but just because the reason is bad doesn't mean the result is wrong.
vmception 5y ago
The intertwined nature of country, financial and personnel relationships is not easy for people to understand. I was just at a gathering the other day where a woman couldn't comprehend that the lab in Wuhan is a joint venture with US public resources, US private sector resources, Chinese resources, and personnel from both countries and others, which includes Dr. Fauci. She had, until that point, mostly been enamored by Dr. Fauci and mostly been quite angry at Wuhan as a general disavowal of the CCP. There is nothing to conclude from any of that observation alone, aside from noticing gaps in US federal oversight. Many people will just spiral into some other rabbit hole since nuance isn't their strongsuit. We still have to react to the pandemic whether that bolsters a lab leak hypothesis, or leads to a smoking gun, or not.
xwolfi 5y ago
If only the American president at the time had been more responsible and less inflammatory it would have resulted in a lot less reflexive aggression - asian people beaten in the street included. The CCP is not very responsible if they know and hide it or if they don't and refuse to look, but to their defense, it's also because it will be used and reused to their detriment (possibly deserved) if proven. Having a sound diplomatic strategy would have maybe helped convince them otherwise, but it was apparently more interesting to ALSO play down the virus in the U.S. for whatever reason and make absolutely clear that China would pay a dear price for it. So hard to blame China :s
specialist 5y ago
Yes and: I'm done with "hot takes". Yes, we need rapid responses during a crisis. Also yes, there will be both good and bad consequences to every action, or inaction. But ffs give the dust time to settle before doing the after action analysis. -- I mostly blame the popular medias for boosting and accelerating the human tendency for fear, outrage, blame. Knowing this about ourselves, that crap has to be toned down. Writing this now, I guess I'm just repeating the "thinking, fast and slow" critique.

dnautics 5y ago

"that letter signed by scientists" does not do justice to the fact that the organizer of that letter had a severe conflict of interest that he failed to disclose. Like why the hell would a scientist not disclose that??! Having been a scientist myself it boggles the mind.

zachlatta 5y ago
Can someone link the mentioned letter? Having trouble finding it.
- willhinsa 5y ago
  Here is the letter[0], and the researcher in question with a huge conflict of interest is Peter Daszak[1]. [0] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30418-9/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... [1] https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n2414 https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n2414
  - thedrbrian 5y ago
    It’s not just Daszak either, 26 of the 27 signatories had links. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/09/10/revealed-scientists-dismissed-wuhan-lab-theory-linked-chinese/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/09/10/revealed-scienti...
  - thisoneistheone 5y ago
- nkurz 5y ago
  I think it's "Statement in support of the scientists, public health professionals, and medical professionals of China combatting COVID-19" in the Lancet from Feb 19 2020: The rapid, open, and transparent sharing of data on this outbreak is now being threatened by rumours and misinformation around its origins. We stand together to strongly condemn conspiracy theories suggesting that COVID-19 does not have a natural origin. ... We declare no competing interests. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30418-9/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... They later published an "Addendum: competing interests and the origins of SARS-CoV-2" in June 2021: Peter Daszak has expanded on his disclosure statements for three pieces relating to COVID-19 that he co-authored or contributed to in The Lancet—the February, 2020, Correspondence, as well as a Commission Statement and a Comment for the Lancet COVID-19 Commission. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01377-5/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...
rapsey 5y ago
> Like why the hell would a scientist not disclose that? Because they are trying to avoid getting lynched?
- petre 5y ago
  Daszak is already getting lynched, at least mediatically. Do a search in his name on ddg, see what the top result is. I'd say it's a crackpot website but in fact it seems it was all written by a covid19 victim. I'd probably move to an Antarctic research station until people forget, as opposed to confortably living in a country where every crackpot and their neighbour has access to firearms.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - thom 5y ago
    Perhaps the Antarctic wouldn’t currently be very welcoming: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59848160 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59848160
bryanrasmussen 5y ago
reading the description of the conflict and paraphrasing Upton Sinclair I would say it is hard for someone to admit a conflict, if their continuing access to funding is dependent on keeping it hidden.
- dnautics 5y ago
  I reread aaronsons blogpost more carefully and I take back my "??!". Daszak is very possibly avoiding the trauma of having had the experience of trying to save lives and ending up resulting in -15m lives saved. That's a unique experience in human existence that goes even beyond the Sinclair quote. I can't honestly say I wouldn't do the same thing, and I've historically done the right thing -- issued corrections two of the n < 10 papers I have to my name.
  - bryanrasmussen 5y ago
    ok, perhaps I'm in a bad mood this morning, which makes me generally prone to cynicism.
ekianjo 5y ago
thats called corruption. Scientists can be corrupted as well.
emmelaich 5y ago
Especially when Daszak himself had warned that the research was risky, in 2015 and Nov 2019. https://twitter.com/__ice9/status/1344832354100125699 https://twitter.com/__ice9/status/1344832354100125699
dekhn 5y ago
I get the feeling a lot of very successful scientists got to where they are by cutting moral corners where other scientists wouldn't.
sundarurfriend 5y ago
And there's as yet no academic/systemic consequence for them not declaring this blatant conflict of interest. That sends a big bold message to future scientists considering whether or not to declare them honestly.

animal_spirits 5y ago

I got into a slightly heated argument with my mother when she claimed that "China had manufactured the virus in a lab" - I didn't even consider the possibility of virus manufacture for study and a possible leak happening, I just assumed she was being fed propaganda that this was the beginning of some kind of bio-war being started by China. So that is my failing, and after reading more about the lab-leak hypothesis I learned to hold my tongue and be curious about such left-field claims instead of judgemental

johnnylambada 5y ago
I hope you looped your mother into your new insights!
- thelittleone 5y ago
  Indeed. one of my favorite learnings in life is the power of admitting when I'm wrong (which is often enough). Quite an empowering decision and also relationahip building. However there are times when people find it so unusual that they see it as weakness and instead of admitting their own wrong, try to capitalise on an opprtunity (perceived weakness). One exception though is playing chess online, where my ego is yet to be mastered.
  - animal_spirits 5y ago
    We can find strength from being vulnerable
  - strictfp 5y ago
    I use self-deprecating humor a lot. And some people, usually the ones who don't pick up on the irony, also use it as an opportunity to attack. It's quite sad when you think about it :)
temporalparts 5y ago
One of my favorite fallacies is the fallacy fallacy. Just because one used fallacious reasoning, doesn't mean they're wrong. e.g. I can give a bad reason for why 16/64 = 1/4, just cross out the 6's, but just because the reason is bad doesn't mean the result is wrong.

vmception 5y ago

The intertwined nature of country, financial and personnel relationships is not easy for people to understand. I was just at a gathering the other day where a woman couldn't comprehend that the lab in Wuhan is a joint venture with US public resources, US private sector resources, Chinese resources, and personnel from both countries and others, which includes Dr. Fauci. She had, until that point, mostly been enamored by Dr. Fauci and mostly been quite angry at Wuhan as a general disavowal of the CCP. There is nothing to conclude from any of that observation alone, aside from noticing gaps in US federal oversight. Many people will just spiral into some other rabbit hole since nuance isn't their strongsuit. We still have to react to the pandemic whether that bolsters a lab leak hypothesis, or leads to a smoking gun, or not.

xwolfi 5y ago

If only the American president at the time had been more responsible and less inflammatory it would have resulted in a lot less reflexive aggression - asian people beaten in the street included. The CCP is not very responsible if they know and hide it or if they don't and refuse to look, but to their defense, it's also because it will be used and reused to their detriment (possibly deserved) if proven. Having a sound diplomatic strategy would have maybe helped convince them otherwise, but it was apparently more interesting to ALSO play down the virus in the U.S. for whatever reason and make absolutely clear that China would pay a dear price for it. So hard to blame China :s

specialist 5y ago

Yes and: I'm done with "hot takes". Yes, we need rapid responses during a crisis. Also yes, there will be both good and bad consequences to every action, or inaction. But ffs give the dust time to settle before doing the after action analysis. -- I mostly blame the popular medias for boosting and accelerating the human tendency for fear, outrage, blame. Knowing this about ourselves, that crap has to be toned down. Writing this now, I guess I'm just repeating the "thinking, fast and slow" critique.