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Ask HN: What are you predictions for 2022?

• nomorecommas 5y ago
  Everything will get worse.
• jb1991 5y ago
  Lists, not long paragraphs: * The beginnings of the burst of the housing bubble. * A new military conflict associated with Russia. * An extraordinary next act for Apple Silicon. * Trump’s failure to reestablish himself as a political leader. * an even greater worsening of symptoms from the climate crisis. * covid will start to fade away due to a variety of factors.
• guidovranken 5y ago
  A lot of comments are optimistic about COVID-related measures relaxing, and I'm confidently predicting that in 2022 they will be proven wrong again.
  • tonyedgecombe 5y ago
    I doubt it. In the UK cases are rocketing but deaths are still falling. This thing will be over soon and no politician is going to prolong the pain longer than they need to.
    • guidovranken 5y ago
      The trifecta government-media-big business now have optimally aligned incentives to not relinquish this historical golden goose of power and money. Add to that the cultural component of ostracizing anyone who goes against the narrative and record investments in FAANG and pharma as a means to ease money devaluation caused by runaway printing, and you end up with a colossal gridlock of incentives that is not going to resolve itself, at the severe and permanent detriment of the middle classes and personal freedoms, with oligarchy emerging as the victor.
      • tonyedgecombe 5y ago
        The UK government is desperate to go back to normal because they are terrified of the economic consequences. There is no great conspiracy here.
• s-xyz 5y ago
  Clickable links for Historical: 2021: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25594068 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25594068 2020: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21802596 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21802596 2019: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18753859 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18753859 2018: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16007988 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16007988 2017: none? 2016: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10809767 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10809767 2015: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8822723 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8822723 2014: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6994370 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6994370 2013: none? 2012: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3395201 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3395201 2011: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1970023 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1970023 2010: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025681 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025681
  • sgt 5y ago
    Has anyone analyzed these to see how accurate HN is?
    • asicsp 5y ago
      There was a review thread for 2021 a few days back: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29678113 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29678113
• Raed667 5y ago
  All over the place predictions: - More people will turn into alternative forms of investment (coins through large exchanges) as inflation continue to rise. - Regulations around NFTs will start to appear as tokens are generated for copyrighted material. It will take famous personality taking things to court. - COVID: A vaccine shot every ~6 months will be introduced. - An early A/R prototype will be revealed by a big phone player. - React will remain the leading framework for web application development, but a push towards better server-side-rendering will make performance easier to achieve for average developers. - Web3 will go nowhere, and the vibe around it will remain driven by an MLM like mentality
• apples_oranges 5y ago
  - most predictions will turn out to be false :P
  • Debug_Overload 5y ago
    This is awesome because it generates a fun paradox.
    • bryanrasmussen 5y ago
      no it doesn't, it is only guaranteed to generate a fun paradox if the prediction was "all predictions will be false".
      • smcl 5y ago
        Earlier there were only about 5 comments, two of which involved this "most predictions here will be false" - however one was sadly deleted and nobody else decided to play ball :D
      • midasuni 5y ago
        The paradox would be “this prediction will be wrong” “All predictions are false” could be wrong, because other predictions are right even though some are wrong.
        • bryanrasmussen 5y ago
          yes you're right, although I think my example is more likely to exist than the previous.
  • input_sh 5y ago
    Here, let me throw one in the true pile for the benefit of the true/false ratio: near the end of 2022, someone on HN will post a thread along the lines of "Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?".
    • 5y ago
• simonebrunozzi 5y ago
  - Bitcoin will go down to $12,000 - One EU country will default (not Italy), the EU will bail it out - China will enter a recession - 2022 will be the year of the hottest and coldest temperatures on record - and also highest CO2 produced on record, caused by huge fires in the Russian Taiga.
  • kome 5y ago
    "- One EU country will default (not Italy), the EU will bail it out" Who?
    • miguelxt 5y ago
      Spain most probably.
      • smcl 5y ago
        Could also be Greece, iirc they're still in slightly dire straits in terms of debt
      • mapmap 5y ago
        Why Spain?
        • eps 5y ago
          Why not? It was a completely random prediction, so a completely random country is a good match.
          • melenaboija 5y ago
            Predictions are not meant to be random forecasts and "most probably" doesn't sound to me like random either.
      • melenaboija 5y ago
        What are you basing your predictions on? Quite bold to say the fourth biggest economy in EU will default in one year and not something the rating agencies seems to agree when compared to other countries. Also "most probably" sounds like you have have already been short selling a good chunk of your savings.
• smcl 5y ago
  Going with my gut feel which is "the biggest thing will start with something incredibly inane and stupid" so with that in mind: - a huge worldwide economic downturn where the first tiny little domino is the price of those ape NFTs crashing ... but more realistically: - The World Cup in Qatar will go ahead in November+December with fans, despite growing concern over a new emerging variant - Queen Elizabeth to pass away - Boris Johnson to somehow hang on as UK Prime Minister
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• the-dude 5y ago
  2022 will be more or less the same as 2021.
• AlchemistCamp 5y ago
  The much bigger 2020 (decade) predictions thread was here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21941278 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21941278
• anfxh 5y ago
  [flagged]
• bebna 5y ago
  European perspective: - car manufacturers will start to phase out ice production - all time low birth rates - brexit and covid will still be major problems for politics - worker shortage we saw in GB, will hit rest of West Europe - major collapse of German pig farming after tonnies moving away - rise of living costs will kill almost all of which was left of brick and mortar shops
• oars 5y ago
  - The cryptocurrency market cap will continue to rise, reaching $4 trillion by mid-year then crash 60-70% about $1.5 trillion by end of 2022 (currently around $2.2 trillion as of December 31st 2021). - More large companies will invest in Bitcoin, including Tesla who will purchase another $500 million worth. Tesla will also start accepting Dogecoin as payment. - NFTs will continue to be hyped up along with Web 3.0 but there will be no actual progress. Once the crypto market crashes by 60-70% the companies which remain will start to truly build the future web technologies we will be using in 5-10 years time.
  • g5095 5y ago
    Elon has already stated they will accept dogecoin as payment
    • slac 5y ago
      He has stated a lot of things... Does not mean it will happen.
    • elkos 5y ago
      Which will come first? Dogecoin or robotaxis?
• nathias 5y ago
  web3 will start to become mainstream as corporations adopt NFTs
  • eps 5y ago
    "Corporations" and "NFT" need "scam" to glue them into a meaningful sentence.
• DitheringIdiot 5y ago
  - another facebook whistle blower will emerge after the US midterm elections - people will lose interest in NFTs, the bubble will deflate - google chrome will decrease it’s market share
  • pvinis 5y ago
    I wish and am helping for the last one!
• durnygbur 5y ago
  Pandemic situation will turn into something alike Brexit - indecisive pulp without a view for resolution or and end. Further corrosion of EU agreements like the current suspension of Schengen Area (certificates are required now). Real estate market to rent and to buy will turn even more unaffordable and hopeless for salaried - especially millenials and younger.
• Ekaros 5y ago
  Not betting on this one but: - There will correction on stock market. And solution is to pump it up even higher... - 2-3 covid variants and we will still being doing this same approach then, with 5th dose of "vaccine"
• Joeri 5y ago
  * The pandemic will gradually lose attention not because people stop dying but because new topics will dominate the news and people just don’t want to hear about it. By the end of the year the new normal of widespread mask wearing, vaccination and wfh will be established for the coming decade. * There will be a growing awareness between the mismatch in the heavy web dev build tools that were designed for the feature-starved browsers of the IE era and the reality of today’s evergreen browser landscape. New frameworks and build tools will show up to take advantage of what browsers can do now. * Because almost nobody develops on 8 GB anymore and software keeps bloating, by the end of the year it will have become a bad idea to recommend 8 GB RAM PC’s even for casual use. 16 GB will become the minimum spec for futureproofing, but it will take another three years for the PC market to catch up. * The climate will be a dominant topic again, thanks to the IPCC reports dropping and the petering out of the pandemic. Governments will fail to make progress on climate accords because the hope that technology will save the status quo will outmatch the pressure for societal change. The private sector will surprisingly start filling the gap. There will be massive private green technology investment but still few results in CCS and newgen nuclear, which will eventually turn out to only be small parts of the solution. If it is a record breaking year for severe weather, climate protests will turn grim.
  • durnygbur 5y ago
    > become a bad idea to recommend 8 GB RAM PC’s even for casual use. 16 GB will become the minimum spec I think the only reason why anyone still argues whether 8GB of RAM is enough is because of Apple still offering this miserable amount of memory on their Mac's. Anyone outside of Apple ecosystem doesn't even bother answering.
    • eklavya 5y ago
      You should seriously look at all the most popular windows laptops at online stores.
    • adrianmsmith 5y ago
      > I think the only reason why anyone still argues whether 8GB of RAM is enough is because of Apple still offering this miserable amount of memory on their Mac's I don't really agree with that. I bought a Windows PC in 2012 with 8GB RAM and connected it to my TV, for watching YouTube and general surfing. It's still going strong. Typing this reply using that computer. A dozen Chrome tabs open, Spotify playing etc. Currently 2.9 GB in use according to Windows 7 task manager (maybe Windows 10/11 would use more RAM?). I think 8GB is more than enough in 2021 if all you want to do is have a few Chrome tabs open, watch YouTube etc. Which is the target market for low-end Macs I reckon.
• anyfactor 5y ago
  - 2022 is going to be slow and forgetful year of complacency - Covid19 virus will mutate and people will be moderately compliant to recurring booster doses - No significant climate change policies - Housing prices will not go down yet people/entities will keep buying them - America will invest heavily in arms deals and ignore investing in infrastructure and aid in local and foreign lands - China and America will get involved in a proxy war - Fiat backed government issues e-cash will see greater push
  • smcl 5y ago
    House prices is an interesting one, regardless of where you are in the world. Where I am prices have skyrocketed (my flat which was 3,600,000 in 2017 is now "worth" nearly double that now - 6,900,000) and any time you mention to anyone that this looks like the insane growth we had in the UK and USA prior to the 2007 crash you get brushed off as a lunatic.
    • mrslave 5y ago
      Everyone's either getting rich or wants to get in on it. You have a very small audience. I predict that low interest rates will continue to wreak havoc. Lots of media content will address the symptoms but never the cause. No one of influence will publicly call it out. Also should a financial crisis arrive everyone will be like, "Nobody saw that coming!" Not a profound prediction I admit.
    • anyfactor 5y ago
      I wouldn't say comparing the housing prices is an orange to orange comparison to 2007 era housing price spike and it's subsequent collapse. The problem is MBS had a form of circuit breaker that verged on national default rate. But this time, housing prices aren't backed by some form of tradable derivative. People and funds are actually buying houses directly. I think people are still making payments on the houses they have bought. But most surprisingly houses are being bought by mega hedge funds like Blackrock and what not. There is no circuit breaker for that. Also in NA and EU zones particularly in Canada, I believe money launderers buy up properties outcompeting and outbidding local investors. I also I firmly believe that, we are living in a post-scarcity economy where economic logic fails, people buy up stuff regardless of its future economic outcome.
• dvh 5y ago
  Voyager probe will leave solar system. Water will be discovered on Mars. Russia will further it's expansion, EU will send strongly worded letter.
  • yosito 5y ago
    Hmm, all three of those already happened....
    • MerelyMortal 5y ago
      I know "There's an XKCD for that" is pretty common, but how about Dilbert? https://dilbert.com/strip/1989-07-12 https://dilbert.com/strip/1989-07-12
    • clusterfish 5y ago
      More than once
      • framecowbird 5y ago
        Prediction successful
    • deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
• yosito 5y ago
  - The Omicron wave will finish raging across the world by February/March, after which COVID will become a much more mild endemic situation. - Africa will catch up a lot with vaccines, but that process will continue into 2023. - China will give up on their zero COVID approach and be the last country to experience a major wave, aggravating supply chain issues. - The left will continue to worry about COVID and politicians will continue using it as a power grab. Many irrational COVID restrictions will remain as political theater. - mRNA technology will have several breakthrough successes and stocks of companies developing mRNA technology will steadily rise. - Russia will stop their saber rattling in Ukraine, realizing that they don't have enough leverage against NATO. - Ukraine will join NATO. - The price of Bitcoin will reach a new high around the middle or end of the year, but it won't last long. - Joe Biden will be hospitalized and Kamala Harris will attempt to push through several extreme left policies, which will be met with violent pushback from Trumpers, while Trump will amplify his inflammatory public statements. - Due to supply chain issues, there will be shortages of many consumer products around the world, stoking inequality and discontent. - Several countries will announce digital nomad visas to capitalize on taxes from remote workers.
  • SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago
    Wishing a malediction on any specific individual is questionable. Kamala Harris is not a member of the leftmost wing of her party, which is not a particularly left party by global standards. That party has, in the last couple of years, deliberately gone back to the centre (of US politics) with their candidate choice (i.e. Biden not Bernie) in order to meet the voters and present a "safe, reliable, moderate choice" to contrast the other party. In this specific circumstance, why would Ms Harris have the inclination to, and mandate for, "push through extreme left policies" ? I'm sure that some media figures would be pushing this idea for their own purposes of rousing emotion, but that doesn't in itself make it a prediction that makes any logical sense.
    • yosito 5y ago
      > Wishing a malediction on any specific individual is questionable. I didn't wish anything on anyone.
• eps 5y ago
  - Covid will wither away, largely due to the scale of the Omicron wave - Biden will pass away, making another massive mess in the US - Markets will see a crash event - EU/US will yield to Putin on Ukraine - China will up its efforts to absorb Taiwan
  • jopsen 5y ago
    > - EU/US will yield to Putin on Ukraine Was there any chance NATO would accept an applicant that is currently fighting a war?
• perceptronas 5y ago
  I will go with most 'outrageous' predictions I can think of: - 2022 a year of Linux desktop - Dynamic typing becomes niche technology choice - 'Green course' becomes less popular due high energy prices - West decreases trade with China by a substantial amount - Russia invades a country without admitting that - Windows 11 becomes even more user hostile and less 'Pro' - iPhone grabs more market share in developed world - Laws around refugees become more strict internationally - Matrix, Signal become mainstream. I think its close already and next year will be a breaking point. - More substantial AI adaptation/innovation in audio engineering space - More substantial AI adaptation/innovation in anti bot space in online spaces like social media - Governments start to open more data
  • caskstrength 5y ago
    > 2022 a year of Linux desktop Has anything at all changed in desktop Linux space in past ~10 year to make it more user-friendly to "non-geeks"? I'm using desktop Linux and nothing comes to mind. > Dynamic typing becomes niche technology choice I wish! > Russia invades a country without admitting that Hmm, I am from that "country" and I think Russia is quite past "Little green men" stage. At the moment they intend to instigate some thinly veiled provocation (read their statements about "it is actually Ukraine who is planning the offensive!" and "undercover American soldiers are preparing to use chemical weapons in Donbass") and go in with official "peacekeeping" mission in order to protect Russian-speaking people of Lugansk/Donetsk from bloodthirsty Ukrainian nazis. Plan B (if no good opportunity for provocation arises) is to just declare that West has crossed their "red lines" and forced their hand to invade in order to protect their security. > Windows 11 becomes even more user hostile and less 'Pro' Already happened? > Laws around refugees become more strict internationally Ditto.
    • perceptronas 5y ago
      >Has anything at all changed in desktop Linux space in past ~10 year to make it more user-friendly to "non-geeks"? I'm using desktop Linux and nothing comes to mind. I meant it more as a joke as every year we expect it to be a year of Linux desktop. Nevertheless, I am quite happy with Linux these days. (I use all three OSes (Linux,Win,Mac) daily/weekly) > Windows 11 becomes even more user hostile and less 'Pro' >>Already happened? I think the progress is there, but I bet there are product managers already working on their KPIs to make it worse for Pro users
• jopsen 5y ago
  - pandemic counter measures will go away, even as new variants emerge -- due to a combination of vaccinations and lack of attention span. - Supply-chain issues will fade. - inflation will slow. - interest rates will go up slightly, almost nobody will care. - asset prices will continue going up, but not as fast. - Russia doesn't invade Ukraine. - The cryptocurrency bubble will continue to inflate. - things will largely go back to normal. Just my guess...
• lordnacho 5y ago
  Central banks will crap themselves between inflation and popping the bubble. Covid will keep going with at least one new variant of concern like Omicron, but governments in the west will not lock down for it. Not counting ANZ and the Far East. Web3 will soak up more VC than ever. England to reach the world cup final. Denmark will do well. Mbappe goes to RM with Haaland. Rewrite it in Rust becomes official Linux mantra. Lol.
• PedroBatista 5y ago
  It will be a tumultuous year, new covid variant will come out and governments will insist on the same playbook, a large part of the population will push back. Money markets will go up and down surfing the good and bad news of Covid, but will cool off with the social cracks made by inflation and the timid “end of free” money. Bitcoin will go up but not reach 100k. Tech’s gonna tech. Nothing profoundly new, the already big ones will continue to inflate and rake the money, sure they’ll get flak, fight a few big fines, make sure the right-to-repair plane lands of favorable ground. Their angst about the unknown future will increase but the bottom line will be great. New hacks and leaks scandals, a roaring for a few weeks about it, nothing fundamental will change. More “EVs surpassed ICE car sales” news, existing infrastructure will not be able to accommodate them and that will be mainstream news. Shortages of things ( both legit and artificial) will continue and contribute to market instability and high prices. When there’s instability among the people, the regimes tend to find a common enemy to save themselves. I fear the start of big wars in 2022, the west will pussy out because the cost is high and they aren’t willing to pay, the other parties know it. In the next years somebody’s gonna get too greedy and the cost will stop being too high. Socially, people will realize things change but they mostly stay the same. They can change by refusing to not play the game, will they have the courage to live without the goodies they’ve learn to pursuit?
  • whearyou 5y ago
    Must agree with all of the predictions 100%
  • peakaboo 5y ago
    We are at a crossroad here. If people don't push back in 2022, we are going to live in a society that makes "papers please" look like heaven compared to what we have. Please read this book if you doubt what I'm saying. It's not a god damn conspiracy theory. https://www.amazon.com/Real-Anthony-Fauci-Democracy-Childrens/dp/1510766804 https://www.amazon.com/Real-Anthony-Fauci-Democracy-Children...
    • tapan_jk 5y ago
      Lots of downvotes but no counter argument? Please HN, let us do the right thing by disagreeing by argument rather than downvoting someone into oblivion. The only reason I value HN is that it (generally) is open to debate without taking hardline positions. Let us ensure we can retain this culture even when our emotions try to get the better of us.
• dvh 5y ago
  Number 55 will be factored using Shor's algorithm on quantum computer.
• boublepop 5y ago
  - Apple will release the first gen of its VR/AR-headset. - Google will buy Tiktok - Meta/Facebook will release some VR solution that fail to gain traction - Roblox will face legal pressure due to its use of child labor and child gambling
  • raverbashing 5y ago
    > Google will buy Tiktok And immediately change its name to Google Fun Videos, changing it to Google DanceParty™ six months later
    • huffmsa 5y ago
      I think you mean Google Tok Messenger, their 900th iteration of a messaging service
  • darepublic 5y ago
    > Meta/Facebook will release some VR solution that fail to gain traction Lol
  • throwaway4good 5y ago
    Does Google have enough money to buy tiktok?
  • Pandabob 5y ago
    > - Google will buy Tiktok If we're talking about a deal that would include ByteDance's business in the west, like the deal Trump wanted to happen, then I doubt current regulators would let Google be the one buying just because of its market share in the digital ads business. And there's absolutely no way Google would be able to buy ByteDance itself.
• AussieWog93 5y ago
  The countries that have fought (and paid a great price) to eliminate COVID will just give up in the face of Omicron. A small amount of unvaccinated elderly people will die in the most horrific way imaginable, and the general population will use it as an excuse to be smug. China will experience an economic meltdown, starting in the real estate sector and exacerbated by the need to maintain the appearance of the triumph of Common Prosperity at any cost. Both Xi and the CCP will retain power domestically, but it will make life miserable for millions. Australia will elect a Labour government. Nothing will change.
  • perilunar 5y ago
    > Australia will elect a Labour government. Nothing will change God I hope the second part of that is wrong. And I think it will be. There is no way a Labor government could be as incompetent as the Liberal incumbents — they simply don't have enough useless dickheads.
• bryanrasmussen 5y ago
  -there will be one COVID vaccine for all variants (pretty secure as there is rumoured to be one ready for release soon) -the research into COVID will have major rewards in producing flu and cold virus vaccines. -GDPR fines will increase on major companies. -Blockchain based tech like bitcoin, NFTs will suffer due to increasing legislation to handle environmental issues. If it turns out that countries can hit their mandated targets by outlawing bitcoin mining etc. it will happen. -Someone will try to make an NFT competing solution that does not rely on the blockchain. Good chance of success. - previous 2 points lead to failure of web3. This is a major problem for public intellectuals on the web because now the web3 term is polluted but they need to have some sort of next phase of the web otherwise how to justify their existence?
  • eps 5y ago
    > there is rumoured to be one ready for release soon Is it anything more than a speculation that it's possible in principle?
    • prox 5y ago
      There are actual trials in the UK, don’t have the article here, with a multi strain vaccine. I think US military also has one ready.
• midasuni 5y ago
  For the top voted “predictions for next decade” on jan 2 2020 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21941278 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21941278 Increase in adoption of non-scientific beliefs such as …anti-vaxx … as a counterbalance to the increased complexity of everyday life.
• deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
• speedgoose 5y ago
  It will be very similar to 2021.
  • AussieWog93 5y ago
    This is probably accurate but where's the fun in that!? :P
    • speedgoose 5y ago
      Alright, I will try: - Macron wins the French presidential election against Valerie Pécresse. - Éric Zemmour is fourth behind Marine Le Pen, and he blames the women who didn't vote for him in mass. Though he is a stupid masculinist. - Erdoğan finally listens to its economists when the Turkish Lira fall reaches new records. The currency stabilises but stays weak. - Bouteflika is eventually declared dead. - Biden falls asleep during the G20. - Electricity prices will continue to rise to all-time records during the winter in Europe as Germany decides to stop its nuclear power-plants as it was planned after Fukushima years ago. - The Tesla cybertruck will be removed from pre-order in Europe because it will never be road legal there. - AWS eu-west-1 will be down at least once, and the status page will stay green. - A very popular package on NPM will be hacked and deploy malware steeling credentials of major cloud providers. - Nothing significant will be made for the environment.
• timdaub 5y ago
  - After the second winter with covid, countries successfully implement a playbook that restricts freedom as little as possible while containting the virus. Some cultural habbits die off (huge events inside in winter), while new events emerge (a culture of doing things outside with others) - Elon says something so incredibily stupid that this time it affects his company's performance. - The social media attention contest continues to be won by fakers, ex-addicts and felons. More non-family friendly content is being accepted from the overlords at FAANG. This has profound effects on society. - More people from the left start identifying as intellectual right. There's a phaseshift happening and one day it's woke to be right and reactionary to be left.
  • midasuni 5y ago
    I can see more acceptance from Facebook, google and Amazon (market place), but Netflix and Apple?
  • AussieWog93 5y ago
    >The social media attention contest continues to be won by fakers, ex-addicts and felons. More non-family friendly content is being accepted from the overlords at FAANG. This has profound effects on society. Is this really any different to the "reality TV" era in the early 00s? I suspect there's something innately human about wanting to see trashy people.
    • timdaub 5y ago
      Yeah. But I also think that e.g. ex-addicts like Mike from The Nightshift or the German equivalent Montana Black: They have an energy that others on these platforms don't have. They're street smart and probably less constraint in what they can do and say. They aren't perceived as ex-addicts, but it seems their mentality is promoted through algorithms. Dunno, it's a small sample size but anyways a fun prediction.
      • AussieWog93 5y ago
        Oh, not saying you're wrong at all (Spanian springs to mind as an Aussie example!). Just think it's deeper than algorithms is all.
• darepublic 5y ago
  (blows on dice) - Canadian team (prob Calgary) gets close to but does not win Stanley cup Covid regulations increasingly flaunted, exemplified by pernicious flashing of the nostrils in public. A new type of streaking known as unmasking will take place somewhere and be a brief meme - Biden popularity decreases leading to more fracturing of the usual fault lines as sides dig in. But because Democrats in power not as much civil unrest - more real AI advances, along with a bunch of AI bullshitters acting as red herring - web3 posting will cool down in first half - a hyped up application of gpt3 will become a topic of speculation - trend of bad east west relations continues - the economic bubble bursts?
• djohnston 5y ago
  I see a lot of crypto predictions so I'll offer my own. NFTs will deflate as they're mostly useless and corps just want to build their own walled gardens anyways. Bitcoin will go up as people continue to realize that a currency outside the grips of politicians is safer than any fiat in the long term. ETH will successfully move to PoS and sharding to allow 100.000 transactions / second.
• hughrr 5y ago
  There will be the start of a cloud exodus due to the high profile outages, associated negative PR from end users, the completely missing ROI resulting in a pile of consulting opportunities opening up.
  • PedroBatista 5y ago
    Not yet, those conversations are only starting to appear among technical people. The alternative for now is “trust me we can do this a 1/3 of the cost”, management will not have it. There will be an influx of “cloud cost reductions” consultants first. A medium company with wild financial success attributed to their no-cloud strategy needs to write a series of blogs and do a couple of conference presentations on YouTube along with a realistic practical alternative first.
    • hughrr 5y ago
      The cloud cost reduction wave is here. After the inevitable waste reduction, the answer is always “rewrite everything from scratch cloud centric” which is expensive and risky due to further lock in on top of low confidence. So YMMV with that one.
• mellavora 5y ago
  I will (finally) realized what to do with my life
  • AussieWog93 5y ago
    Reminds me of this meme: https://m.imgur.com/gallery/L8j3NE1 https://m.imgur.com/gallery/L8j3NE1
• midasuni 5y ago
  Stock market will continue to be pumped up by the US government Housing market will continue to be pumped up by the U.K. government Covid will be declared “over” in at least one major western country (probably UK)
  • yosito 5y ago
    I think the UK already made that declaration.
    • throwaway4good 5y ago
      As did plenty of other countries …
      • midasuni 5y ago
        The irony is the U.K. market was pumped far more in the decade to 2010 (120% increase - even with the 08 crash - 8% per year) than the last decade (60% increase, 5% per year), but people don’t seem to remember the 00s boom.
  • caskstrength 5y ago
    So you are saying the Fed won't raise interest rates next year? That would be quite surprising since they have already announced several planned hikes.
    • joelbluminator 5y ago
      Even if they raise it 3-4 times it would still be extremely low historically.
    • midasuni 5y ago
      I didn’t mention anything about interest rates
      • caskstrength 5y ago
• yosito 5y ago
  There's a typo in the title. Should be "your".
• acd 5y ago
  * Inflation will rise, central banks will ignore infltion to satisfy banks. * Omicron will be over by april. * There will be more advanced large ai models. * Protein based covid vaccines which lasts longer will be in common use.
• RivieraKid 5y ago
  Interesting how many comments here mention Bitcoin. The media and public discourse saturation of this topic seems to be at the top.
  • MerelyMortal 5y ago
    Hah! That's what I thought earlier, yet it still went up. I've asked my dad to let me know when he hears about cryptocurrencies being mentioned. He finally sent me an email this morning saying he wants to buy a politcal meme coin and specified he is serious (though just $100 worth).
• RivieraKid 5y ago
  I expect a boring year with no dramatic changes. I'm looking forward to incremental progress in self-driving tech, fusion, quantum computing, AR and VR, chips, machine learning, healthcare.
• astoor 5y ago
  - Hype around web3.0 will die down when people realise (i) most of what is promised isn't actually technically possible, and (ii) the limited applications that are actually delivered are so user-unfriendly that they get no traction outside the cryptocurrency sphere. - The current cryptocurrency bubble will burst and most interest will evaporate. It will not go away completely though - it will be kept alive by the dream of getting rich with near-zero effort, like the casino and gambling industry, and there may even be another cryptocurrency bubble in a few years time.
  • Bombthecat 5y ago
    I don't think, people are more willing to buy dreams, then reality... See star citizen..
• wolframhempel 5y ago
  Cloud: Increasingly high-level offerings, starting with Functions/Database/X as a Service, but extending to business-level APIs (chat, payment, inventory management, tracking, accounting etc...) Crypto: Some great innovation around decentralized organizations, not just in finance (e.g. VC funds organizing as D(A)Os that let crypto owners be LPs), but also in areas such as shipping, international trade, copyright etc. Also, the emergence of a "winner-take-all" Ethereum competitor, e.g. Solana, due to network effects resulting from its ecosystem. Europe: Social Division due to Corona Measures. Economic struggles due to lack of innovation and economic activity over the last two years—inability to counteract this due to bloated bureaucracy. USA: A move towards the political center, the decline of progressive left and alt-right. More even distribution of tech and economic activity from SF/NYC to across the country. China: Increased focus on communism, reduction of economic freedom and centralisation of power. Indo-China, Central India and Central Africa: Fast rise of innovation and internet enabled entrepreneurship, some major Bangalore, Hanoi and Lagos based startups. Best Case Scenario for 2022: Russia and China stay peaceful, Omikron creates global immunity to Covid, pandemic ends and economies bounce back violently, thus ending inflation and making rising interest rates unnecessary. Worst Case Scenario for 2022: Putin invades Ukraine. Minimal response from foreign powers emboldens China to take over Taiwan. The takeover of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing creates global chip squeeze that leaves western economies struggling. Western nations unable to counteract aggression due to crippling debt and continued economic decline.
  • Pandabob 5y ago
    The business-level API prediction is an interesting one. Any examples of this right now? Chat and payments are fairly obvious, but what would an inventory management API look like?
    • wolframhempel 5y ago
      I'm not an expert on this, but there's standardized product identification (e.g. UPC-A, the standard barcodes are based on) and associated formats for tracking that let e.g. supermarkets, logistics and vendors integrate their data (though as always standard adherence is not as clean as it could be)
• holografix 5y ago
  Facebook’s push into the “metaverse” pays off. Due to uncertainty related to the on going pandemic more and more teens start flocking to VR experiences. The low price, good specs and availability of the Oculus Quest 2 helps the move. A major fortnite-esque game is released for VR.
  • qihqi 5y ago
    Population: One?
• syrgian 5y ago
  Further instability in asset valuations, rents and salaries that will leave those well positioned even richer, and push those badly positioned out of their current city. Hard to tell which way it will go, but for my sake as a non-homeowner, I hope there is a huge house price crash that significantly outpaces (or at least matches) company valuations.
• nivenkos 5y ago
  - Omicron will create natural immunity to COVID and lead to the end of travel restrictions by the end of the year. - Russia will dispute eastern Ukraine, and cut gas supplies to Europe leading to extremely high energy prices in Europe and increasing the gap between living standards in the US and EU. - Le Pen will narrowly lose to Macron in the second round of the French election, but the Zemmour + Le Pen total will be a majority. - The Swedish Democrats will enter government in Sweden with the Moderates. But little will change in practice. - The Republicans will win in the mid-term elections due to growing economic concerns.
  • truculent 5y ago
    > the gap between living standards in the US and EU Do you have any supporting evidence for this gap beyond GDP?
    • michaelt 5y ago
      Well, you can get any result you want by deciding on the right measure. Want the US to beat the EU? Measure quality of life by the number of square feet of living space, hours of native-language cultural output available per year, percentage of the population with air conditioning, cost of a gallon of gas, and number of billionaires. Want the EU to beat the US? Measure quality of life by % of people without healthcare, days of annual leave per year, and rates of bankruptcy.
      • truculent 5y ago
        Well yes, but that doesn’t make them equally valid. One of those sets of measures looks significantly better than the other (which I would guess is your point).
  • framecowbird 5y ago
    "Increasing the gap" By what measures are living standards higher in the US then the EU? Genuinely curious.
    • 5y ago
• throwaway4good 5y ago
  Arm in windows laptops picks up. The graphics card bubble pops as eth implements pos. Tiktok announces record ipo in the us.
  • throwaway4good 5y ago
    Some stock picks: long msft, qcom, appl, short nvda, amd maybe fb … Also Nvidia won’t buy arm.
• Laremere 5y ago
  - The current Covid wave is its largest over the entire pandemic. Things settle down during the late Spring/ early Summer. Two more, less severe waves in the fall and winter. - The timing of Covid waves has impact on the US election. If things are under control, more members of the majority party at the given governmental level who can state their policies are working will win. If things aren't under control, there will be more upsets. - Prosecutors charge Trump with crimes, likely with politically motivated timing. The result is a clusterfuck with people only digging into their current beliefs more. - SpaceX's starship will have an orbital launch attempt within 3 weeks of FAA approval. The first three orbital attempts will have significant time between them, subsequent attempts will happen faster. Cargo will fly on Starship (likely Starlink, possibly others) while reentry and landing cause the majority of vehicles to be lost. - I'd say less than 50%, but much higher than prior years: A major country (eg, India, Russia, Australia, a EU member) tries its luck pushing a major US tech company (Google, Amazon, Meta) too far with control, taxing, or fines, resulting in an interference of service. - I personally have a better year than 2020 or 2021. - We seem overdue for a cute cat or dog to become viral. - Waymo expands service to another city. Tesla self driving continues to fail to materialize anything close to "full self driving". - mRNA vaccine for something that isn't covid-19 is approved by the FDA.
• ryanmercer 5y ago
  - I will completely burnout at my job. In the past 6 months alone I've done 400 hours of overtime and after 15 and a half years of the same job it might be the straw that breaks the camel's back. - The NFT I made of the only known recording of my father's voice will remain unpurchased because I set a bonkers price (31.12 ETH, he died 3/11/98 which got rounded up by Rarible from 31.198), mostly having created it as a silly birthday gift to myself. - Lots more inflation, largely due to supply chain issues. - Employers continuing to struggle with employee retention, and filling empty positions. - More Web 3.0 nonsense, with (hopefully) the bubble bursting and people coming back to their senses. - Yet another 12341325 crypto currencies no one but pump and dumpers care about. - Betty White celebrates yet another birthday, Ryan Reynolds still smitten. - Used car prices continue to soar due to chip shortages for new production vehicles. - Housing prices freefall most, or all and-then-some, of the gains from the past year-ish as people largely stop buying due to significantly higher grocery/other consumable bills.
  • goodcanadian 5y ago
    - Betty White celebrates yet another birthday, Ryan Reynolds still smitten. Well, that prediction has failed surprisingly quickly . . .
    • kingofpandora 5y ago
      Was coming back to check that I remembered this prediction correctly; I read it earlier today when she was still alive.
    • ryanmercer 5y ago
      Yeahhhh, the second I saw yesterday I was like "oof".
• LatteLazy 5y ago
  Back to bau with minimal exceptions. Interest rates will rise. COVID will become less and less of an issue (as vaccination rate rise and evolution makes it less damaging). By summer 90% of travel restrictions will be gone as everyone wants tourists. China will continue and worsen it's bad behaviour. More aggression to neighbours, more oppression internally. The West etc will do nothing. The same with Russia, no serious sanctions. Though the EU will accelerate moving away from reliance on them. Maybe a stock market crash (long overdue) but it's unlikely as central banks won't permit it. Continued but less severe inflation as people continue to demand goods (notable cars and houses) but supply starts to catch up.
• whiteboardr 5y ago
  Countries introducing vaccination mandates will see violence and social unrest.
• elihu 5y ago
  Lithium iron phosphate batteries will begin to be mass-produced outside of China with the expiration of the last major patent. The United States government will continue to not do much about climate change. Starship will carry a payload into space and both stages will be recovered. James Webb will produce some amazing images of things we've never seen before. Fusion power will make slow, steady progress. There will be at least one major exploitable security vulnerability that will adversely affect the day-to-day lives of a lot of people. Wealth inequality will get worse. Confidence in democracy will go down. Authoritarianism will continue to be increasingly popular around the world. Unusually large numbers of people will continue to quit their jobs. People who can will retire early. Housing will continue to be really expensive. Homelessness won't get any less prevalent. The summer will be really hot, with unusually serious droughts and wildfires.
• lawlorino 5y ago
  ~75% - Queen Elizabeth reigns for her Platinum Jubilee (February) marking 70 years on the throne, but abdicates before year end due to ill health. - Big tech gets bigger, no large impactful legislation is introduced either sides of the Atlantic affecting any of the major players. One specific exemption is Roblox, which sees a major legal challenge relating to concerns over being unsafe for children. - World Cup in Qatar will go ahead despite COVID and new boycotts. England will reach knockout stages but go out on penalties. - A major tech company releases an AR/VR headset to a tepid consumer response. - New, less severe, COVID variant spreads. Most Western governments don't lock down, most companies don't delay return-to-office plans, life resumes mostly to normal for the general population. ===== ~50%ish - Reddit IPOs, a combination of increasing advertising and a new user influx pushes older users and communities away, several reddit-style alternatives pop up aimed at specific communities. Stock price initially pops and then steadily decreases to year end. ====== ~25% - James Webb Space Telescope makes front-page global news with a new discovery on exoplanets. (Scientific operations start summer 2022 so the timeline is tight, I might have to copy and paste this for 2023) - HN finally implements a dark mode option - US is hit by a major cyber attack affecting key infrastructure e.g. electrical grid - [NOTE: Spoilers for Neal Stephenson's Fall or Dodge in Hell] An unknown activist/hacker/state-sponsored group stages a large-scale multi-vector "prank" convincing a large section of the US population something awful has happened (similar to the "nuking" of Moab in the aforementioned book). Motivation is to further divide society and spread distrust. Threads on discussion about it are the most commented and upvoted in the history HN. Even months after there exists heated debate between "truthers" and others if the event really happened or not.
• randomsearch 5y ago
  One big hairy one: the financial crash finally arrives. I predicted this a few years back but covid and money printing postponed the bubble burst a little longer. With inflation rising and govt debt already sky high (worsened by rising interest rates), there is finally “nowhere to go” but down. The triggers will be multiple, unlike 2008. Crypto crash will play a big part, but also housing market crashes, the end of the retail stock boom, inflation-wage price spiral, structural problems with the Chinese economy, and geopolitics spilling into economics. A good time to ensure you have savings to weather the storm, hopefully get ready to invest once the crash is done, and if you can then take advantage by taking time off, studying for qualifications, or starting a business (recession is a great time to start up). Hang on to your hat and get your finances in order, even if that means downsizing your house.
  • joelbluminator 5y ago
    > there is finally “nowhere to go” but down That's definitely possible but it can definitely still "go up" - even for years. We're already used to debt to gdp being around 130% in the U.S (which a decade ago would have been unthinkable), who says it can't go to 200%. These numbers lose their wow effect really quickly and we all get used to them. In fact, breaking the current dynamic is so hard and risky that central banks are tempted to stretch the debt further and further to prevent a market crash and a recession. And yet there's inflation for real now, a sign things maybe can't go on like this for long. I really have no idea but I'm not brave enough to make predictions over such a random thing as where the economy goes next year.
• nmca 5y ago
  - Short (3-5s) photorealistic video generation from text prompts. - Stronger priors / Pretraining for Neural Radiance Fields allowing photorealistic one-shot novel view synthesis.in static scenes. - Scene Flow Fields or equivalent start just-about-working but weaker performance than unstructured video synthesis outside of rigid camera transformations. - Some variant of WebGPT exposed to public, users realize it's already smarter than most people. - Semi-parametric text generation gets terrifyingly good (eg 50x+ improvement for dense parameter equivalent model, not counting lookup table as params)
• alkonaut 5y ago
  Eastern Ukraine up to Dniepr annexed by Russia, but in a much more severe conflict than the one in Crimea. Thousands of russians dead but zero admitted by Russia. Tumultous months in the markets as Russia is thrown out of SWIFT and petroleum prices beome nervous. UCAVs like TB2 turn out to be gamechangers and make what looks like a lopsided conflict into a very expensive victory for Russia. Russia denies the hundreds of burning wrecks of AA and armor are theirs, however. The China/Taiwan/US conflict will stay in the diplomatic arena. Nvidia announces a 40X0 generation of graphics cards, but no one really notices because like 30X0 they can't be purchased. (Warning: complete layman speculation about Covid) The Covid Pandemic ends. Or rather, the organized responses to the Covid pandemic ends. New variants occur but none that isn't targeted by the immune response from previous infections. Once a vast majority of people are both vaccinated and have past infection the infection waves look more like regular seasonal waves. Travel restrictions vaccine passes etc are with us for several years however. NFTs will become completely toxic. Large brands and game developers will deny they ever planned to implement anything resembling NFTs. The term "web3" will fade completely with few people outside a place like HN having even heard it. Nintendo announces the availability of their 5 year old console "Switch" for select customers. The never ending debate between dynamic/weak and static/strong typing in programming languages isn't exactly settled but the up and coming compromise contender dynamic/strong has another good year. Another massive security hole is found in some corner of some boring library everyone uses. My guess: supply chain attack in a compiler or build system. Boris Johnson is ousted as prime minster. He is replaced by a either a man of some charisma or a woman without charisma, as that is the requirement.
• 627467 5y ago
  China will NOT invade Taiwan.
  • tonyedgecombe 5y ago
    Agree. For all the rhetoric I can't see what they have to gain that would warrant the inevitable pain.
• SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago
  The COVID-19 pandemic will fade, but it will not be linear: there will be flare-ups every now and again (We're in one right now with Omicron), and lulls when victory will again be prematurely declared. It will not be all over by end 2022, but it will be better. There is no sudden "back to normal" off-switch. 2019 is gone, never to return. If you want to know what the new normal is like, look around you. Some things will become slowly more like the old normal over time, some will not. leaders who are incompetent at dealing with COVID now, won't change, but might be removed from office. With any luck, here will be improvements set in motion in how to handle and manage diseases on a global scale, as huge room for improvement has been exposed. e.g. Better global access to vaccines and treatments. It is said that armies prepare "to fight the last war", but fortunately this plan works better against another novel virus than it does against human foes. Virus ingenuity is amazing, but is blind. I expect that I will get another (4th) anti-COVID-19 vaccination in 2022. It will most likely be: - Just 1 jab (i.e. annual not every 6 months), as the 3rd jab increases immunity on the second, so the spacing can increase. it will not likely be "every 6 months, ongoing". - A mRNA-based vaccine (Pfizer, Moderna or similar) - A "second generation" vaccine that improves on the original, likely targeting Omicron or a later variant, or instead is broader in coverage of variants than the first generation anti-COVID-19 vaccines.
  • gremlinsinc 5y ago
    I've been treating the pandemic as mostly over since I got vaccinated. I'm thankful for the vaccines, and I'm definitely not anti-vax or anti-mask, but I've been lax w/ my mask except in Nov when I felt maybe I should wear it until I got the booster as it'd been over 6 months ... I've been dealing w/ depression, PTSD, discontent, anxiety, and more for the past year... as a side-effect of the pandemic and maybe as symptoms of long-covid a year and a half ago ... (not sure on that). ..so the main issues I feel are gone...the lingering stuff -the after math of the protests, the vitriol on both sides, etc...and the world in general... yeah 2019 isn't ever coming back. My biggest concern has been my kids (both under 5...and in preschool)... but not much I can do, if they get it we all get it anyways probably. Again another reason masks don't seem too valuable to me...my kids touch EVERYTHING. In the future I'm still concerned covid could break out into a more deadly strain, or simply a NEW virus becomes pandemic and rinse/repeat all over again. Next time could be 10x more deadly and that'd be horrible...
• say_it_as_it_is 5y ago
  - Roe v Wade is overturned by the Supreme Court - Maine votes to support tax-funded education by private Catholic/Christian schools and other states rush to do the same - "money is speech" broadens its appeal as new "Crowd PACs" set up crowdfunding campaigns for legislative prioritization / lobbying - Hurricane season 2022 is the most destructive on record for the Gulf Coast, including Texas. Extended power outages combined with large unvaccinated populations lead to thousands of avoidable deaths and gun violence. Martial law is declared in multiple states, leading to violent uprising.
• 0xy 5y ago
  Reviewing 2021 predictions: [1] 6/6 predictions accurate. * $NET up 75% to $133. Nailed this one, currently at $133.20 * AMD ramping enterprise adoption. Check. * Apple $3T market cap. Pretty much hit this, currently at $2.92T * G and FB unscathed by regulation. Check. * TikTok expands to take on Snap and IG. Check, they're already bigger. * A breach larger than Solarwinds. Arguable, but I think this is a check. Predictions for 2022: * $NET rolls out an enterprise database offering, and dramatically expands their analytics and logging products. * $NET up 60% to $213 or more. * $S up 30% to $68 or more. * $CRWD up 20% to $251 or more. * $PTON gets acquired or merged, likely by Apple. * Red tsunami in 2022 mid-terms, Democrats trounced in both the House and Senate. Biden becomes a lame duck. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25602654 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25602654
  • s-xyz 5y ago
    Amazing. Where are your predictions for 2022?
    • 0xy 5y ago
      They're in the list, do you not see them?
• VladimirGolovin 5y ago
  - Starship makes a successful orbital flight. - Russia won't start any overt military operations in Donbass, let alone Ukraine proper. - Modern GPU prices are still ridiculous. - Europe's opinion on nuclear energy will become a tad more favorable. - Ethereum won't shift to Proof of Stake. - No major AI breakthroughs. - James Cameron's Avatar 2 won't bring anything groundbreaking to the table. - Apple won't release a VR headset.
  • Loeffelmann 5y ago
    Not too sure about the GPU one. I predict that crypto will loose a lot of its hype and maybe we will see a lot of mining GPUs sold for cheap.
  • Bombthecat 5y ago
    I agree to most of them. But i could imagine that we will find new ways to optimise AI systems, either for speed, accuracy or whatever.
• Bombthecat 5y ago
  Housing cost will increase by another 10 percent.
  • nivenkos 5y ago
    Only 10? It was over 30% in Stockholm last year...
• matthewfelgate 5y ago
  In my opinion. * James Webb Telescope to fail. * Republicans do well in midterms. * Boris Johnson replaced in the summer by Michael Gove. * Russian troops in Ukraine and perhaps other countries. * Macron to lose; a far right candidate to become President of France. * Starship to fly (eventually). But won't become orbital with landing this year. * Telsa stock to tank. * Stock market crash. High inflation. US recession. * China to challenge Taiwan to test US resolve (which isn't there). Poss take control of islands near Taiwain and take control of waters around Taiwan. * Biden ratings low. * UK to recover best from pandemic. But UK GDP still to perform badly. * Boeing to take astronauts to the ISS. * Rocketlab to launch from the USA. * China to launch new space station. * Poss new anti-government protests in Iran. * Full roll out of Tesla Full Self-Driving posponed. * Argentina to win The World Cup. * Mark Zukerberg to resign as CEO of Facebook. * Elon Musk to step back from running Tesla. Poss new CEO. * Polio to have close to 0 new cases.
  • pigiou 5y ago
    Any particular reason for the Webb Telescope to fail?
    • matthewfelgate 5y ago
      I hope the Webb telescope doesn't fail; but it seems very complicated, lots of moving parts to get it assembled.
      • sgt 5y ago
        "seems very complicated", so you think it will fail and believe it strongly enough to write it on HN. We'll see, but you seem like a glass is half empty kind of guy. Must be sad.
        • matthewfelgate 5y ago
          Fuck off.
  • 5y ago
• wruza 5y ago
  Dark predictions for 2022+ Economies get rid of even more middle class layer. Ideally there is a bigcorp and a guy who still costs less than a robot. Software developers, scenario 1) get paid x10-20 more than average, scenario 2) find a way to involve more people through some sort of simplification of their bullshit. My bet 95%/5% (thus I work for 2). Neural networks cross few lines they weren’t expected to cross anytime soon. Cryptocurrency becomes irrelevant because mass surveillance is a solved “problem”. A regular person can’t understand the world anymore to have a reasonable voice in it.
  • jmnicolas 5y ago
    > A regular person can’t understand the world anymore to have a reasonable voice in it. Already happened a long time ago. The world is now so complex it's un-understandable (imho).
• moneywoes 5y ago
  Huge NFT crash
• willmeyers 5y ago
  Random predictions (USA centric): - First completely port-less iPhone released (no sim slot, no lightning port). - NYC's MTA increases fare price to $3. OMNY overtakes metrocard usage with the addition of weekly/monthly/unlimited passes. Reduced fair options are still available for those who qualify. - Monero gets listed on a major crypto exchange (Coinbase, Gemini...). - React server components are released causing another surge in JS frameworks. - Democrats lose majority in House and Senate. - Russia invades Ukraine with no push back. - A Freak natural disaster hits in a completely unexpected place.
  • gremlinsinc 5y ago
    > A Freak natural disaster hits in a completely unexpected place. Go big or go home... I'll predict that a Natural Disaster hits world-wide, i.e. a Carrington Event. The USA is hurled back into the 1800s. Electricity is shut off for 18+ months while they rebuild the entire power grid from the ground up. Everyone basically leaves industry to work on growing food for the masses and ensure the smallest loss of life since the supply chain is completely shut down and grocery stores are closed, and there's no refigerators anyways.
    • lopuhin 5y ago
      > Carrington Event Not a great time to predict this, at this point in the solar cycle we're close to a minimum of solar activity, the max should be between 2023 and 2026, but it's not expected to be too big either - cycle 25 is expected to be similar to 24 which was quite modest.
  • lordofgibbons 5y ago
    > Monero gets listed on a major crypto exchange (Coinbase, Gemini...). Lol, we can dream. But I'd wager, it is likely to be delisted from existing CEXes. Actual cryptocurrencies that act as actual currencies can't be tolerated for much longer. We'll be left with surveillance coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum still listed on CEXes. I'd also wager that actual, real world usage of Monero is going to continue to sky rocket
• rapjr9 5y ago
  Infrastructure, government, banking, industry, and markets become unreliable due to ransomware. I'm not seeing any real solutions yet.
• cstoecker 5y ago
  China will have major break-troughs in the field of "Nuclear Fusion" (aka Artificial Sun). They will have a working energy producing plasma for more than 24h, beating their current record of 17 minutes. This will swing the door for commercial Nuclear Fusion reactors open. EGS will start to make a difference in terms of technology choices. Significant number of Enterprises using Blockchain will move completely away from "PoW blockchains".
• pgcj_poster 5y ago
  - Republicans will make big gains in the midterm elections. - Someone will become a billionaire from NFTs. - Joe Biden will die. - Gay marriage will be legalized in at least one African or Asian country. - Gas prices will go up. - The UK will become a republic. - An article written by a language model will slip past the editors of a major publication. - Covid will disappear by the first half of February. - Something racist will happen in the US and everyone will argue about exactly how racist it was. - The Republic of China will recover the mainland. - Transgender women will win every major women's sporting event, and men's as well. - The UN will evolve into a federal world government. - The dead will walk the earth again. - A star will appear in the sky, and a child born under it will be destined to rid the world of suffering.
  • tonyedgecombe 5y ago
    >The UK will become a republic. As much as I'd like that the chance of it happening is close to zero.
• seb1204 5y ago
  - no government will do bold steps to get closer to 1.5 degree global warming - corporations and private people will continue to invest in carbon neutral or negative solutions and technology all at the added cost to work around prohibitive legislation. - global air travel will not return to pre covid numbers
• mikewarot 5y ago
  1984 Will continue to be the high water mark of secure general purpose computing, as nothing since offers the security of hardware enforced write protected floppy disks that can easily be copied and verified as main storage.
• AnonHP 5y ago
  HN will get a dark mode, and it will be an easy to use toggle on the top menu bar. HN will have accessible and larger voting and parent/next/prev/root buttons/links that make usage on phones and tablets bearable. HN will have larger fonts for better readability.
  • sgt 5y ago
    Not going to happen. HN is immutable. Perhaps they lost the source code and right now Paul Graham is doing maintenance using a disassembler and a hex editor.
• julienreszka 5y ago
  - More and more people will actively disconnect all their devices from the internet for large chunks of their days/nights - IOUs will become common again
  • soupfordummies 5y ago
    These are interesting and novel predictions, care to elaborate?
• djrockstar1 5y ago
  * I'll be closer to happiness than I am now
• forgatmigej 5y ago
  The promised treatments made possible by mRNA technology that powers many Covid vaccines will not be reified. Silent trade war between EU and China to maintain trade balance despite soaring energy prices. Public opinion will shift on Natural gas and Nuclear energy as green energy.
• echelon 5y ago
  A second 2022 thread, posted today: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29767465 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29767465
• jnurmine 5y ago
  People often make "predictions", whereas they just list their wishlist. But, I'll do a prediction or two: Climate: The climate continues to become more and more disrupted. We see beginnings of food and water unavailability in various places. Coronavirus: 2022 will be like 2021, lockdown here, lockdown there, new variant near late autumn.
• pjmlp 5y ago
  Pandemic waves will keep coming as people just cannot learn to behave. Weather will keep getting worse. Windows 11 will follow the same fate as Vista. The WinUI team will be disbanded. The GNU/Linux desktop will reach 3%. More corruption trials will get archived. War on the world will continue. Europe will keep closing the borders to refugees regardless of the official message how human rights are taken care of. Dictatorships will keep spreading around the globe. I guess that will do as predictions.
  • slickrick216 5y ago
    You are sending mixed messages there in your predictions.
    • pjmlp 5y ago
      Not really.
      • slickrick216 5y ago
        Also somewhat true in a way.
• posix86 5y ago
  I think the coronavirus situation will substantially improve. It won't be gone, but substantially more people will be on board with getting vaccines, testing infrastructure will become more useful and quick to integrate into every day life, such that 2g+ (recovered/vaccinated + tested) will become a viable restriction for most things, and those things will become less restricted in nature (apart from 2g+)
• gtsnexp 5y ago
  1. ETH overtakes BTC 2. Omicron is now seen as a mass immunisation event that lead to the end of the pandemic 3. Most Blue States turn Red 4. Something akin to P2P Substack rises 5. Moderna's shares trade horizontally 6. Gold oz. price crosses 2k USD
  • ykevinator2 5y ago
    If the gop would accept science and be nice to black people most states would turn red but I don't see that happening.
    • karmakurtisaani 5y ago
      You don't need to please people if you can pass voter suppression laws at will.
  • asah 5y ago
    I seem gold trading horizontally as digital currency steals from its marketcap, just as altcoins are stealing from BTCs marketcap.
• bool3max 5y ago
  The majority of people here, as well as in the threads from previous years past, seem to vastly overexaggerate all of their predictions, or at the very least they make predictions for 5+ years into the future.
• scanr 5y ago
  - significant rise in inflation - Democrats lose the midterms - Apple releases AR/VR goggles - Crypto hasn’t imploded yet - Starship suborbital launch - First AI generated novel makes best seller list. Arguments about how ‘directed’ it was - Covid is endemic, restrictions generally eased, covid boosters are treated like flu shots - We get a new JS front-end framework that takes the hype from svelte - Hottest year on record, wildfires everywhere, tornadoes, hurricanes, floods, dogs and cats living together. Despite lots of rhetoric, atmospheric co2 ppm still going up - Many articles about how hybrid working doesn’t work. Many organisations give up on their ‘go back to the office’ plans and embrace ‘fully remote’. Lots of disruption in this space. - Major domestic terror attack organised on Telegram and Signal - Donald Trump does not go to jail - Interactive Porn AI startups start doing very well - Drones used in more conflicts, reaction is muted - Reddit hobbles their API
• asah 5y ago
  1. HN predictions will continue to be a poor predictor. (HN is wonderful for raw data and technically analysis, but full of prejudice and echo chamber effects, bike shedding, and poorly read young people - just look at the visceral crypto hate vs what's actually happened... and the love for self driving cars... and and and... you have to separate predictions from your desires... worth reading: _Superforecasters_) 2. Incremental improvements to self driving trucks are closed track systems. Little progress in self driving cars and open road systems. (it's more blocked on regulatory approval, and SDCs are off-trend politically - pandemic/jobs/economy is what matters, and SDCs destroy jobs and give wealth to the 1%, no reason any politician would fight for SDCs right now) 3. More vaccine boosters, especially overseas. Disclosure: I bought MRNA and BNTX) (Sure, Omicron is "mild" but it's still a major problem when the NYC subway, urgent care facilities etc are shutting down to staff sickouts... wait until Omicron comes to your town... Moderna etc will successfully target Omicron... I'm not forecasting whether Omicron mutates into a more-impactful variant: r0 is already crazy so a new variant would have to outcompete that OTOH there's 1B hosts with Omicron and we were surprised at the number of mutations in Omicron... mutation to being less deadly is NOT assured: look at 1918...) 3. Bitcoin 50+k and maybe 100k. (Institutions are piling in, and while altcoins are outperforming and stealing marketshare/marketcap, BTC will continue to get allocated first) 4. China bails out its real estate sector. No hard crash. (It's too big to fail and also too visible. It's a lot of money but CCP can afford it) 5. Trump continues to be marginalized. (Out of office, he's just not relevant and the signal media bans kinda worked... not that I'm not predicting 2024, where he could easily win if he's up against low energy, uninspiring candidates) 6. AOC and Sanders continue to be marginalized (don't offer practical solutions - people want careers, not handouts or band aids. Also, they offer no solutions at all to tricky problems like immigration, foreign relations, USG debt, etc etc) 7. NYC (continues to) recover nicely. Measure by GDP. (it's singular in culture and entertainment, has diversified and integrated industries, and now has practical leadership both city, state & fed... note that it's still ruinously expensive and it won't be any easier for working families...) 8. Remote work remains. Back to office is tepid. Office to residential conversions happen but it's slow. (Pandemic isn't over and the economics of remote work are simply too compelling. Video and adaptations worked well and continue to improve. I've been working remotely for decades and cut & executed billion dollar deals with people I never met: competitors schlepped on planes while my teams built compelling solutions and compelling demos. Office to residential conversions are slow projects and very expensive) 9. Amazon announces a split-up or parent company structure (e.g. Alphabet) of AWS vs e-commerce. (maybe 2023) (The two businesses have little synergy... AWS is easily big enough to stand alone, and e-commerce should just be a customer under long term contract... Meanwhile AWS is giving up marketshare to numerous companies that can't use it because of fiduciary responsibility with Amazon e-commerce being a competitor... each division could design new partners e.g. Amazon e-commerce could leverage Google etc ) 10. Rust and Python and JavaScript continue to gain marketshare __in open source projects__. (Linux and Solana are major boosters for Rust: Solana alone is $54 billion bet that depends on rust... closed source continues to depend more on platforms i.e. Azure driving gains for C#) 11. SQL, PostgreSQL and sqlite continue to dominate (SQL has a 25 year history of copying innovations from new database tech... PostgreSQL and sqlite are well architected, well packaged, well supported and no-nonsense licensing...) 12. UAP evidence continues to mount and point to extraterrestrial or time travel origins but no conclusive evidence. (UAPs are very fancy tech requiring massive R&D and production... we've pretty much ruled out every current govt and military, leaving only "crazy" options... OTOH strong evidence that UAPs have been around for decades, which means a coordinated effort to release info slowly e.g. avoid panic... so my forecast that this pace continues... it would take an Arrival type event to be wrong, or UAPs to stop getting news coverage...) 13. 5g home internet grows quickly (I have it: it's wonderful... if you have the budget, I recommend getting 5g + terrestrial and bonding them together with a <$100 load balancer => no more internet speeds drops... it's amazing...) 14. US housing prices in the suburbs and countryside flatten out but don't crash. Selected areas that got over-bought come down. (See remote work and broadband... OTOH the COVID runup has played out...) 15. ESG grows in importance but does nothing material to slow global warming. Global warming disasters remain regional. Geo-engineering slowly gains traction as the solution but there isn't consensus yet. (Combine the math and politics, and no way will voters tolerate the extreme conservation required to impact temperatures... It has to be geo engineering... but since there isn't a "complete" and practical solution, and since there's 50 years and leftist guilt-driven politics pushing conservation, I forecast this continues until it hits a wall... Meanwhile, climate change isn't a one year thing, and even if the Thwaites shelf collapses, Miami won't flood in 2022... but once it does finally flood and $862B of talk estate is toast, then we'll get serious about climate change, the emperors of conservatism will be shown to be wearing no clothes, and we'll be forced to try geo engineering even as unsavory as it seems... but that's definitely not 2022 and unlikely 2023...) 16. CBDCs continue to be researched, but no major economy announces one in 2022. (Just takes time... they'll let the small countries test first... I'm guessing Estonia announces a CBDC in the next 1-2 years) 17. Hochul wins NYS governor. (She's doing fine and no other candidate has brand name or reputation... just not enough pain to boot her for an unknown...) 18. Adams/Hochul successfully turns NY regulators around from being laggards in crypto to "saying the right things" and stopping the Luddites, even if sensible regulations take longer. That may ultimate result in more regulation, but at least it'll allow New York businesses to engage where today, major products like DeFi are blocked from NYS residents and businesses. (New York is always about the money and business, and crypto is simply too big to pass up) 19. Metaverse grows but doesn't crossover. (Still too hard for humans to interface with it... but Ready Player One pretty much nailed it: for millions, RL will suck and AR/VR will successfully dominate their attention, making virtual goods/services ever more valuable in $USD terms... Unclear if early winners today will preserve that lead when MV finally crosses over to mainstream, I'm guessing when AR hardware becomes practical...) 20. NYC continues to attract and grow in tech companies and startups. (Always been a good place to do business, and now there's enough talent & influence to hold its own... Plus, NYC is making a major and coordinated bet on tech... California has natural beauty and weather, NYC has everything else... when you turn off your screen, NYC is a fantastic RL place to reside... Both are expensive...) --- Note: I'm not opining on the midterms, which obviously will hurt the Dems but nobody knows by how much - too much depends on future events.
• tobbob 5y ago
  - Inflation will begin to tail off at the very end of 2022 - JWST will work but impressive looking images that the public are hungry for will give way to purely scientific work that looks a little more mundane. - Biden will subtly disappear from view as much as possible due to old age - Governments will fail to relinquish their authoritarian mode of operation despite covid becoming endemic. - I predict the world will be even further away from it's 2050 1.5 degree C target. - Seriously dank memes
• akagusu 5y ago
  This is my list: - Russia invades Ukraine. - Economy gets worse. - Unemployment or sub-employment get worse. - There will be more scams involving Web3. - There will be new scams involving Metaverse. - People will be pushed into this Metaverse crap. - Covid19 pandemic declared endemic. - People are forced to take Covid19 vaccines so Big Pharma can make more profit. - Surveillance will increase for the sake of safety. - Democratic governments will accelerate towards totalitarianism. - Cold war between US and China becomes official. - The riches get richer. - The poor get poorer. - The number of climate disasters will increase. - The number of people who die from hunger and preventable diseases will increase.
• bryan0 5y ago
  * 2022 ends much like 2021, people thinking it sucked because of the pandemic, and signs for hope in 2023. * Russia has not yet invaded Ukraine but continues to threaten to extract concessions. However now China in parallel amasses troops around Taiwan. * interest rates raised from ~0 to 4%+ over 3 rate hikes. more expected to come in 2023 due to continued inflation concerns. * 2 more covid variants of concern. vaccine immunity escape increases each time but they still do not release a new vaccine different than the original mRNA. * Still see headlines like: "What doe the Tau variant mean and why are experts worried?". * 4th boosters are approved but adoption rates are very low. * Testing is still somehow back-logged and demand for covid tests remains high. * Oculus continues to dominate VR space with record-breaking sales but top selling app is still just the 4-year-old Beat Saber. * Tiktok continues its dominance. Older crowd gets into TT and young kids look for something else, but nothing else gain traction yet. * Apple released iphone 14 which is somehow even more incremental than the iphone 13. * Trump positions for 2024 run. Fox news continually runs story how Trump was not to blame for Jan 6. * Biden reassures that he will run again against him. * JWST releases images. they're only ~50% of what was planned capability due to technical issues but still groundbreaking.