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I really hope Omicron is the strain that turns the virus into endemic and we can live with it as we live with the flu.

dragontamer 5y ago
Eeehhhhh. Hard to say right now. Hospitals in my state have just activated emergency protocols, because our surge is already exceeding Winter-2020 levels. This means that 20% of surgeries are going to be cancelled, and other such care is going to be officially rationed off. (BTW: We're at 90% adults vaccinated, but "70% to 80%" of the hospitalizations are unvaccinated individuals). EDIT: To be clear: individual hospitals declare emergencies. Its not a state-wide declaration. Hospitals have begun to declare emergencies and activate hospital-specific rationing. Omicron has been a bitch so far. It seems like it is causing hospitalizations in the unvaccinated population, maybe not at the same "rate" as Delta, but in high enough numbers that we're going to run out of hospital beds in my area. ------- Elsewhere in the country... Florida's 300% rise in cases this past week has demonstrated that natural-immunity from Alpha/Delta was completely worthless vs Omicron. Florida is well on its way to having a worse surge than it ever had before. It doesn't seem like we can natural-immunity our ways out of this.
- bonzini 5y ago
  So there are 9 times as many vaccinated people and 3 times fewer hospitalizations, that would be 1-1/27 efficacy (96% or so). Sounds like it's no worse, or possibly even better, than what was measured in the trials
- travisgriggs 5y ago
  Curious which state you're in.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
- nickff 5y ago
  >"Omicron has been a bitch so far. It seems like it is causing hospitalizations in the unvaccinated population, maybe not at the same "rate" as Delta, but in high enough numbers that we're going to run out of hospital beds in my area. " One of the problems seems to be that hospital staff are so expensive (because of their regulated monopoly) that we've been running with no spare capacity in normal times. Most other systems have 20% or more extra capacity.
  - dragontamer 5y ago
    We've literally never run out of hospital space before, including the 2020 winter surge of COVID19/Alpha (which hit us harder than Delta did). This Omicron is worse than anything we've seen before locally. Crisis levels / Emergency levels of hospitalization have been reached. Yeah, we've had a nursing crisis and our health care system is shoddier than many people realize. But Omicron is clearly different.
    - nickff 5y ago
      I agree with everything you say here, but most other systems (outside of healthcare and hospitals in particular) run with greater than 20% spare capacity. For example, your local pizza restaurant can probably produce 20% above their expected volume tonight if needed.
      - dragontamer 5y ago
        I mean, some hospitals in my area are reportedly at 140% stated capacity or something. We're well above "20%". This is crisis / emergency time. The emergency declaration will reduce surgeries by 20% (going from 140% capacity to 112% capacity). Like, its obviously not enough, but... its something.
  - pjc50 5y ago
    > Most other systems have 20% or more extra capacity. I think it's been fairly clear in the pandemic that they don't.
- heavyset_go 5y ago
  > Florida's 300% rise in cases this past week has demonstrated that natural-immunity from Alpha/Delta was completely worthless vs Omicron. Florida is well on its way to having a worse surge than it ever had before. It doesn't seem like we can natural-immunity our ways out of this. Tangential, but has Florida started accurately reporting their cases, hospitalizations and deaths instead of under-reporting them?
  - dragontamer 5y ago
    > Tangential, but has Florida started accurately reporting their cases, hospitalizations and deaths instead of under-reporting them? Doesn't matter IMO. What matters is the change-in-percent. If Florida's "undercount" is 300% higher this week than last week, that's all the evidence we need, as long as the "undercount" remained consistent. The exact number isn't important. Its the change in numbers we can look at and rely upon. If you don't trust the numbers, you can still trust the change-in-numbers. Its not important to get exact numbers. Its more important to remain consistent in your reporting through these crisis. We care about apples-to-apples comparisons within the state, not against different states. A 300% rise is a 300% rise.
    - heavyset_go 5y ago
      I agree that you can glean trends from inaccurately reported data, but I'm asking because I want to know if there is a source that is attempting accurate reporting in Florida, or if Florida is counting things differently than they were a while ago.
      - dragontamer 5y ago
        Any state with more than 5% positive is underreporting cases however. You need 95% of your cases to be negative if you expect any accuracy in your case%. If you're at 10% positive or 15% positive, then if you double your testing, you double your cases. 10% positive suggests a testing-kit shortage. That's what's going on in my state, we've begun to ration testing-kits. We only give out testing kits to those with symptoms. --------- At some point, your hospital systems favor the individual's health over accurate reporting of statistics. Under such circumstances, it becomes important to use alternative measures for how bad the surge is. Focusing on "% change" is one of the most effective ways of factoring in this issue.
- zaidf 5y ago
  I think when the dust settles, we'll conclude that Omicron for the vaccinated posed very similar risks as the flu. Keyword of course is for the vaccinated. SF is seeing the highest case counts at any point in the pandemic and yet there is no real change in hospitalizations/deaths. Anecdotally, I've attended two mega indoor concerts in the past couple of months. It is almost impossible that I haven't been exposed to or contracted COVID.
  - dragontamer 5y ago
    > Keyword of course is for the vaccinated. SF is seeing the highest case counts at any point in the pandemic and yet there is no real change in hospitalizations/deaths. It took about a week or two between our Omicron-surge before our hospitals filled up around here. COVID19 is a slow-moving disease, give it some time and prepare.
    - zaidf 5y ago
      What's the vaccination rate in your county?
      - dragontamer 5y ago
        61.8% of total population. Lower than the state's average but still pretty good by American standards.
        zaidf 5y ago
        Ah. SF is at 87% with at least one dose and 80% with at least 2 doses. I think 62% vs. 80% could be a big enough delta to explain the difference here versus your town.
        dragontamer 5y ago
        Thanks for the additional data-point. That 18% difference could very well make the difference. I'll be keeping an eye on your higher-vaccination rate and how it works out in your city. I've been trying to tell my coworkers / people around me to get vaccinated (and boostered) but not everybody would listen. EDIT: The state's average is like 80% total population. I live in an area with far below the state's average in regards to vaccinations.
- usaphp 5y ago
  > This means that 20% of surgeries are going to be cancelled > We're at 90% adults vaccinated, but "70% to 80%" of the hospitalizations are unvaccinated individuals > our surge is already exceeding Winter-2020 levels Can you put any links to the data on any of these? I am really curious to know where you get that from, I can't find any hospitalization data from Omicron and vaccinated rates on those hospitalizations.
  - dragontamer 5y ago
    The first hospital to declare an emergency in my state was... https://www.umms.org/uch/news/2021/um-uch-moves-to-crisis-standards-of-care https://www.umms.org/uch/news/2021/um-uch-moves-to-crisis-st... The 70% to 80% quote is from local-TV stations. https://www.wbaltv.com/article/um-upper-chesapeake-hospital-disaster-covid-19/38612021 https://www.wbaltv.com/article/um-upper-chesapeake-hospital-... > Barrueto said 70% to 80% of the hospitals' patients are unvaccinated. He said the move also sends a message to the community that it's not business as usual.
- timr 5y ago
  > Elsewhere in the country... Florida's 300% rise in cases this past week has demonstrated that natural-immunity from Alpha/Delta was completely worthless vs Omicron. This is simply wrong. A rise in cases is not evidence of much of anything related to immunity, let alone natural immunity. Plenty of vaccinated people are getting infected as well -- they're not dying from it. > Florida is well on its way to having a worse surge than it ever had before. It doesn't seem like we can natural-immunity our ways out of this. Please stop speculating. The "surge" in cases is currently lower than what happened in FL over the summer, and hospitalizations are flat: https://covid-19.direct/state/12 https://covid-19.direct/state/12
  - dragontamer 5y ago
- hnburnsy 5y ago
  Another take on Florida... >While COVID-19’s omicron variant pushes Florida to pandemic daily records in cases reported and has drive-thru testing lines snaking through parks and pharmacy parking lots, hospitalizations haven’t risen at the same rate — yet. Sunday’s report from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services said there were 2,302 people hospitalized for COVID-19 in Florida. That’s 39 more people hospitalized than in Saturday’s report and from 245 hospitals, as opposed to the 246 hospitals in Saturday’s report. COVID-19 patients occupy 4.27% of patient beds in those reporting hospitals, compared to 4.18% in the previous day’s reporting hospitals. Of the people hospitalized in Florida, 333 were in intensive care unit beds, a decrease of nine. That represents about 5.41% of the state’s ICU hospital beds, compared to 5.55% the previous day. Read more at: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article256855937.html#storylink=cpy https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article25685593...
qbasic_forever 5y ago
I remember when people said that about alpha, and then delta, and now omicron... When is it going to happen? The UK convinced itself alpha would give them herd immunity and stop future outbreaks. Then the same people came out to say ok now with delta in the UK we'll let it burn all summer and then be protected. And now the same people have the gall to say, ok ok this time omicron will be the one that gives us herd immunity. It's time to call out this nonsense for the complete horseshit nonsense that it is.
- nickff 5y ago
  >"It's time to call out this nonsense for the complete horseshit nonsense that it is. " This is not helpful. I understand that you disagree with the parent, but you could have ended your comment on a more constructive and helpful note.
  - qbasic_forever 5y ago
    20 millions people worldwide are estimated to be dead so far in 2 years of this virus pandemic. It's time to call out the minimizers and downplayers on their horseshit.
    - nickff 5y ago
      >"It's time to call out the minimizers and downplayers on their horseshit. " Maybe it's time to do that on Reddit or Facebook, but this isn't the point of HackerNews. From the guidelines: >" Be kind. Don't be snarky. Have curious conversation; don't cross-examine. Please don't fulminate. Please don't sneer, including at the rest of the community. Comments should get more thoughtful and substantive, not less, as a topic gets more divisive. When disagreeing, please reply to the argument instead of calling names. "That is idiotic; 1 + 1 is 2, not 3" can be shortened to "1 + 1 is 2, not 3." Please respond to the strongest plausible interpretation of what someone says, not a weaker one that's easier to criticize. Assume good faith. "
  - outside1234 5y ago
    For what its worth, I took this as an attack on the idea and the parent themselves as a person.

Eeehhhhh. Hard to say right now. Hospitals in my state have just activated emergency protocols, because our surge is already exceeding Winter-2020 levels. This means that 20% of surgeries are going to be cancelled, and other such care is going to be officially rationed off. (BTW: We're at 90% adults vaccinated, but "70% to 80%" of the hospitalizations are unvaccinated individuals). EDIT: To be clear: individual hospitals declare emergencies. Its not a state-wide declaration. Hospitals have begun to declare emergencies and activate hospital-specific rationing. Omicron has been a bitch so far. It seems like it is causing hospitalizations in the unvaccinated population, maybe not at the same "rate" as Delta, but in high enough numbers that we're going to run out of hospital beds in my area. ------- Elsewhere in the country... Florida's 300% rise in cases this past week has demonstrated that natural-immunity from Alpha/Delta was completely worthless vs Omicron. Florida is well on its way to having a worse surge than it ever had before. It doesn't seem like we can natural-immunity our ways out of this.

bonzini 5y ago
So there are 9 times as many vaccinated people and 3 times fewer hospitalizations, that would be 1-1/27 efficacy (96% or so). Sounds like it's no worse, or possibly even better, than what was measured in the trials
travisgriggs 5y ago
Curious which state you're in.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
nickff 5y ago
>"Omicron has been a bitch so far. It seems like it is causing hospitalizations in the unvaccinated population, maybe not at the same "rate" as Delta, but in high enough numbers that we're going to run out of hospital beds in my area. " One of the problems seems to be that hospital staff are so expensive (because of their regulated monopoly) that we've been running with no spare capacity in normal times. Most other systems have 20% or more extra capacity.
- dragontamer 5y ago
  We've literally never run out of hospital space before, including the 2020 winter surge of COVID19/Alpha (which hit us harder than Delta did). This Omicron is worse than anything we've seen before locally. Crisis levels / Emergency levels of hospitalization have been reached. Yeah, we've had a nursing crisis and our health care system is shoddier than many people realize. But Omicron is clearly different.
  - nickff 5y ago
    I agree with everything you say here, but most other systems (outside of healthcare and hospitals in particular) run with greater than 20% spare capacity. For example, your local pizza restaurant can probably produce 20% above their expected volume tonight if needed.
    - dragontamer 5y ago
      I mean, some hospitals in my area are reportedly at 140% stated capacity or something. We're well above "20%". This is crisis / emergency time. The emergency declaration will reduce surgeries by 20% (going from 140% capacity to 112% capacity). Like, its obviously not enough, but... its something.
- pjc50 5y ago
  > Most other systems have 20% or more extra capacity. I think it's been fairly clear in the pandemic that they don't.
heavyset_go 5y ago
> Florida's 300% rise in cases this past week has demonstrated that natural-immunity from Alpha/Delta was completely worthless vs Omicron. Florida is well on its way to having a worse surge than it ever had before. It doesn't seem like we can natural-immunity our ways out of this. Tangential, but has Florida started accurately reporting their cases, hospitalizations and deaths instead of under-reporting them?
- dragontamer 5y ago
  > Tangential, but has Florida started accurately reporting their cases, hospitalizations and deaths instead of under-reporting them? Doesn't matter IMO. What matters is the change-in-percent. If Florida's "undercount" is 300% higher this week than last week, that's all the evidence we need, as long as the "undercount" remained consistent. The exact number isn't important. Its the change in numbers we can look at and rely upon. If you don't trust the numbers, you can still trust the change-in-numbers. Its not important to get exact numbers. Its more important to remain consistent in your reporting through these crisis. We care about apples-to-apples comparisons within the state, not against different states. A 300% rise is a 300% rise.
  - heavyset_go 5y ago
    I agree that you can glean trends from inaccurately reported data, but I'm asking because I want to know if there is a source that is attempting accurate reporting in Florida, or if Florida is counting things differently than they were a while ago.
    - dragontamer 5y ago
      Any state with more than 5% positive is underreporting cases however. You need 95% of your cases to be negative if you expect any accuracy in your case%. If you're at 10% positive or 15% positive, then if you double your testing, you double your cases. 10% positive suggests a testing-kit shortage. That's what's going on in my state, we've begun to ration testing-kits. We only give out testing kits to those with symptoms. --------- At some point, your hospital systems favor the individual's health over accurate reporting of statistics. Under such circumstances, it becomes important to use alternative measures for how bad the surge is. Focusing on "% change" is one of the most effective ways of factoring in this issue.
zaidf 5y ago
I think when the dust settles, we'll conclude that Omicron for the vaccinated posed very similar risks as the flu. Keyword of course is for the vaccinated. SF is seeing the highest case counts at any point in the pandemic and yet there is no real change in hospitalizations/deaths. Anecdotally, I've attended two mega indoor concerts in the past couple of months. It is almost impossible that I haven't been exposed to or contracted COVID.
- dragontamer 5y ago
  > Keyword of course is for the vaccinated. SF is seeing the highest case counts at any point in the pandemic and yet there is no real change in hospitalizations/deaths. It took about a week or two between our Omicron-surge before our hospitals filled up around here. COVID19 is a slow-moving disease, give it some time and prepare.
  - zaidf 5y ago
    What's the vaccination rate in your county?
    - dragontamer 5y ago
      61.8% of total population. Lower than the state's average but still pretty good by American standards.
      - zaidf 5y ago
        Ah. SF is at 87% with at least one dose and 80% with at least 2 doses. I think 62% vs. 80% could be a big enough delta to explain the difference here versus your town.
        dragontamer 5y ago
        Thanks for the additional data-point. That 18% difference could very well make the difference. I'll be keeping an eye on your higher-vaccination rate and how it works out in your city. I've been trying to tell my coworkers / people around me to get vaccinated (and boostered) but not everybody would listen. EDIT: The state's average is like 80% total population. I live in an area with far below the state's average in regards to vaccinations.
usaphp 5y ago
> This means that 20% of surgeries are going to be cancelled > We're at 90% adults vaccinated, but "70% to 80%" of the hospitalizations are unvaccinated individuals > our surge is already exceeding Winter-2020 levels Can you put any links to the data on any of these? I am really curious to know where you get that from, I can't find any hospitalization data from Omicron and vaccinated rates on those hospitalizations.
- dragontamer 5y ago
  The first hospital to declare an emergency in my state was... https://www.umms.org/uch/news/2021/um-uch-moves-to-crisis-standards-of-care https://www.umms.org/uch/news/2021/um-uch-moves-to-crisis-st... The 70% to 80% quote is from local-TV stations. https://www.wbaltv.com/article/um-upper-chesapeake-hospital-disaster-covid-19/38612021 https://www.wbaltv.com/article/um-upper-chesapeake-hospital-... > Barrueto said 70% to 80% of the hospitals' patients are unvaccinated. He said the move also sends a message to the community that it's not business as usual.
timr 5y ago
> Elsewhere in the country... Florida's 300% rise in cases this past week has demonstrated that natural-immunity from Alpha/Delta was completely worthless vs Omicron. This is simply wrong. A rise in cases is not evidence of much of anything related to immunity, let alone natural immunity. Plenty of vaccinated people are getting infected as well -- they're not dying from it. > Florida is well on its way to having a worse surge than it ever had before. It doesn't seem like we can natural-immunity our ways out of this. Please stop speculating. The "surge" in cases is currently lower than what happened in FL over the summer, and hospitalizations are flat: https://covid-19.direct/state/12 https://covid-19.direct/state/12
- dragontamer 5y ago
hnburnsy 5y ago
Another take on Florida... >While COVID-19’s omicron variant pushes Florida to pandemic daily records in cases reported and has drive-thru testing lines snaking through parks and pharmacy parking lots, hospitalizations haven’t risen at the same rate — yet. Sunday’s report from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services said there were 2,302 people hospitalized for COVID-19 in Florida. That’s 39 more people hospitalized than in Saturday’s report and from 245 hospitals, as opposed to the 246 hospitals in Saturday’s report. COVID-19 patients occupy 4.27% of patient beds in those reporting hospitals, compared to 4.18% in the previous day’s reporting hospitals. Of the people hospitalized in Florida, 333 were in intensive care unit beds, a decrease of nine. That represents about 5.41% of the state’s ICU hospital beds, compared to 5.55% the previous day. Read more at: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article256855937.html#storylink=cpy https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article25685593...

qbasic_forever 5y ago

I remember when people said that about alpha, and then delta, and now omicron... When is it going to happen? The UK convinced itself alpha would give them herd immunity and stop future outbreaks. Then the same people came out to say ok now with delta in the UK we'll let it burn all summer and then be protected. And now the same people have the gall to say, ok ok this time omicron will be the one that gives us herd immunity. It's time to call out this nonsense for the complete horseshit nonsense that it is.

nickff 5y ago
>"It's time to call out this nonsense for the complete horseshit nonsense that it is. " This is not helpful. I understand that you disagree with the parent, but you could have ended your comment on a more constructive and helpful note.
- qbasic_forever 5y ago
  20 millions people worldwide are estimated to be dead so far in 2 years of this virus pandemic. It's time to call out the minimizers and downplayers on their horseshit.
  - nickff 5y ago
    >"It's time to call out the minimizers and downplayers on their horseshit. " Maybe it's time to do that on Reddit or Facebook, but this isn't the point of HackerNews. From the guidelines: >" Be kind. Don't be snarky. Have curious conversation; don't cross-examine. Please don't fulminate. Please don't sneer, including at the rest of the community. Comments should get more thoughtful and substantive, not less, as a topic gets more divisive. When disagreeing, please reply to the argument instead of calling names. "That is idiotic; 1 + 1 is 2, not 3" can be shortened to "1 + 1 is 2, not 3." Please respond to the strongest plausible interpretation of what someone says, not a weaker one that's easier to criticize. Assume good faith. "
- outside1234 5y ago
  For what its worth, I took this as an attack on the idea and the parent themselves as a person.