7 ms·

> The risks are more evenly balanced in younger persons aged up to 40 years, where we estimated the excess in myocarditis events following SARS-CoV-2 infection

> The risks are more evenly balanced in younger persons aged up to 40 years, where we estimated the excess in myocarditis events following SARS-CoV-2 infection to be 10 per million with the excess following a second dose of mRNA-1273 vaccine being 15 per million So according to this study, if you're under 40 and have taken the Moderna vaccine, you are more likely to develop Myocarditis than after a Covid infection.

Isinlor 5y ago
There is also question of severity: > Whilst myocarditis can be life-threatening, most vaccine-associated myocarditis events have been mild and self-limiting [0]. The risk observed here is small and confined to the 7-day period following vaccination, whereas the lifetime risk of morbidity and mortality following SARS-CoV-2 infection is substantial. In general, even if you will have very mild infection and you are under 40, COVID-19 can do a lot more damage than vaccine. Long COVID among people that were not hospitalized is quite common (more than 10% after 3 months [1] [2]) with wide ranging symptoms. From loss of smell to being debilitating enough to prevent you from working. And medicine has very little idea what is happening with these people or how to help them. [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29564815 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29564815 [1] https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/prevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk/1april2021 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthan... [2] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8478214/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8478214/
- native_samples 5y ago
  The claim about 7-day periods is circular: in trials and other studies they tend to assume anything that happens 7 days afterwards isn't related to vaccines, so don't report them, so there's no evidence for anything happening more than 7 days after the vaccines, etc.
- kkjjkgjjgg 5y ago
  How do they know the lifetime risk of Covid-19?
  - Isinlor 5y ago
    Indeed, they can not know quantitatively lifetime risk of COVID-19 after 24 months of observation. But we do know from clinical experience that COVID-19 is damaging a lot of people in very severe ways. I was also quoting data on long COVID that indicate that a lot of people (10% and more) suffer long COVID after 3 and even 6 months. We also have some data on SARS survivors [0]. The SARS virus is closely related to SARS-CoV-2, but it is a lot more severe. > Dr. Paula Gardner, a psychologist at St. John’s Rehab in Toronto, has been documenting the health of survivors, post-SARS. > “They’re still, after 10 years, experiencing problems. Issues such as fatigue, muscle and joint pain, shortness of breath and some newly developing problems such as neuropathy, numbness in the feet and hands,” she said. We have also experience with the general chronic fatigue syndrome that seems to be related to infectious diseases: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chronic_fatigue_syndrome#Viral_and_other_infections https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chronic_fatigue_syndrome#Viral... [0] https://globalnews.ca/news/404562/sars-10-years-later-how-are-survivors-faring-now/ https://globalnews.ca/news/404562/sars-10-years-later-how-ar...
    - icoder 5y ago
      Just to prevent confusion, I think it's good to realise that this article is mainly discussing the risk of COVID-19 on myocarditis (etc), not on anything, while that doesn't seem to be it's biggest impact (which is an important point you make already).
- jcbrand 5y ago
  With every booster being taken, the risk of Myocarditis is increasing. The vaccine-induced spike proteins (which damage your cells and internal organs) can stay in your body for 12 months, which means that if you're regularly boosting, you're not getting rid of them. This is not the case with Covid, and people rarely if ever get Covid twice.
  - nradov 5y ago
    Reinfections are possible but the symptoms are almost always mild. Just like with the other coronaviruses. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2108120 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2108120
  - icoder 5y ago
    That's quite few statements you put out there, any chance you can direct us to some sources or further reading?
    - jcbrand 5y ago
      It's all from Peter McCullough on the Joe Rogan show and he mentions all the studies on which he bases his statements. https://open.spotify.com/episode/0aZte37vtFTkYT7b0b04Qz https://open.spotify.com/episode/0aZte37vtFTkYT7b0b04Qz
      - Pyramus 5y ago
        I love Joe Rogan and his podcast, but be aware that we live in such a complex world, any representation will be a mis-representation to some extend. How much of a mis-representation is extremely hard to judge, because often it's not done deliberately. Wikipedia says about Peter McCullough: "During the COVID-19 pandemic, McCullough promoted misinformation and falsehoods about COVID-19, the COVID-19 vaccine, and COVID-19 treatments." That's definitely concern to be very skeptical.
        jcbrand 5y ago
        It's good to be skeptical, and yet I hope you have an open enough mind to listen to the interview.
- dablweb 5y ago
  Do you have any source for the claim that myocarditis is less severe after the vaccine than after infection? I was under the impression it was the opposite due to most infections remaining in the airways.
  - Isinlor 5y ago
    I guess I formulated it in a confusing way. I don't know whether myocarditis caused by vaccine is more or less severe vs. myocarditis caused by COVID-19. What the article references is a report that 76% of vaccine-associated myocarditis events were described as mild [0]. > A total of 76% of cases of myocarditis were described as mild and 22% as intermediate; 1 case was associated with cardiogenic shock. After a median follow-up of 83 days after the onset of myocarditis, 1 patient had been readmitted to the hospital, and 1 had died of an unknown cause after discharge. Of 14 patients who had left ventricular dysfunction on echocardiography during admission, 10 still had such dysfunction at the time of hospital discharge. Of these patients, 5 underwent subsequent testing that revealed normal heart function. We also know that long term effects of COVID-19 overall i.e. not only myocarditis are not always mild and can be debilitating even for people below 40, even after mild COVID-19. See my reply here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29564815 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29564815 [0] https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2110737 https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2110737
soco 5y ago
> We estimated an extra two (95% confidence interval (CI) 0, 3), one (95% CI 0, 2) and six (95% CI 2, 8) myocarditis events per 1 million people vaccinated with ChAdOx1, BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273, respectively, in the 28 days following a first dose and an extra ten (95% CI 7, 11) myocarditis events per 1 million vaccinated in the 28 days after a second dose of mRNA-1273. This compares with an extra 40 (95% CI 38, 41) myocarditis events per 1 million patients in the 28 days following a SARS-CoV-2 positive test. The way I read it, they counted 2+1+6=9 incidences more for one dose, another 10 for two doses (total 19), compared to 40 more if you got Covid. So basically the vaccine decreased the incidence for the infected.
nabla9 5y ago
Milder and you are still several orders of magnitude less likely to die because you are protected from COVID. Only with children age <15 the cost benefit ratio gets close.
kkjjkgjjgg 5y ago
Also you have to factor in the probability to catch Covid to begin with. Some say everybody will get it eventually, but I don't think it is a given. Or maybe when you get it, it could be a less severe strain by then.

Isinlor 5y ago

There is also question of severity: > Whilst myocarditis can be life-threatening, most vaccine-associated myocarditis events have been mild and self-limiting [0]. The risk observed here is small and confined to the 7-day period following vaccination, whereas the lifetime risk of morbidity and mortality following SARS-CoV-2 infection is substantial. In general, even if you will have very mild infection and you are under 40, COVID-19 can do a lot more damage than vaccine. Long COVID among people that were not hospitalized is quite common (more than 10% after 3 months [1] [2]) with wide ranging symptoms. From loss of smell to being debilitating enough to prevent you from working. And medicine has very little idea what is happening with these people or how to help them. [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29564815 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29564815 [1] https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/prevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk/1april2021 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthan... [2] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8478214/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8478214/

native_samples 5y ago
The claim about 7-day periods is circular: in trials and other studies they tend to assume anything that happens 7 days afterwards isn't related to vaccines, so don't report them, so there's no evidence for anything happening more than 7 days after the vaccines, etc.
kkjjkgjjgg 5y ago
How do they know the lifetime risk of Covid-19?
- Isinlor 5y ago
  Indeed, they can not know quantitatively lifetime risk of COVID-19 after 24 months of observation. But we do know from clinical experience that COVID-19 is damaging a lot of people in very severe ways. I was also quoting data on long COVID that indicate that a lot of people (10% and more) suffer long COVID after 3 and even 6 months. We also have some data on SARS survivors [0]. The SARS virus is closely related to SARS-CoV-2, but it is a lot more severe. > Dr. Paula Gardner, a psychologist at St. John’s Rehab in Toronto, has been documenting the health of survivors, post-SARS. > “They’re still, after 10 years, experiencing problems. Issues such as fatigue, muscle and joint pain, shortness of breath and some newly developing problems such as neuropathy, numbness in the feet and hands,” she said. We have also experience with the general chronic fatigue syndrome that seems to be related to infectious diseases: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chronic_fatigue_syndrome#Viral_and_other_infections https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chronic_fatigue_syndrome#Viral... [0] https://globalnews.ca/news/404562/sars-10-years-later-how-are-survivors-faring-now/ https://globalnews.ca/news/404562/sars-10-years-later-how-ar...
  - icoder 5y ago
    Just to prevent confusion, I think it's good to realise that this article is mainly discussing the risk of COVID-19 on myocarditis (etc), not on anything, while that doesn't seem to be it's biggest impact (which is an important point you make already).
jcbrand 5y ago
With every booster being taken, the risk of Myocarditis is increasing. The vaccine-induced spike proteins (which damage your cells and internal organs) can stay in your body for 12 months, which means that if you're regularly boosting, you're not getting rid of them. This is not the case with Covid, and people rarely if ever get Covid twice.
- nradov 5y ago
  Reinfections are possible but the symptoms are almost always mild. Just like with the other coronaviruses. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2108120 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2108120
- icoder 5y ago
  That's quite few statements you put out there, any chance you can direct us to some sources or further reading?
  - jcbrand 5y ago
    It's all from Peter McCullough on the Joe Rogan show and he mentions all the studies on which he bases his statements. https://open.spotify.com/episode/0aZte37vtFTkYT7b0b04Qz https://open.spotify.com/episode/0aZte37vtFTkYT7b0b04Qz
    - Pyramus 5y ago
      I love Joe Rogan and his podcast, but be aware that we live in such a complex world, any representation will be a mis-representation to some extend. How much of a mis-representation is extremely hard to judge, because often it's not done deliberately. Wikipedia says about Peter McCullough: "During the COVID-19 pandemic, McCullough promoted misinformation and falsehoods about COVID-19, the COVID-19 vaccine, and COVID-19 treatments." That's definitely concern to be very skeptical.
      - jcbrand 5y ago
        It's good to be skeptical, and yet I hope you have an open enough mind to listen to the interview.
dablweb 5y ago
Do you have any source for the claim that myocarditis is less severe after the vaccine than after infection? I was under the impression it was the opposite due to most infections remaining in the airways.
- Isinlor 5y ago
  I guess I formulated it in a confusing way. I don't know whether myocarditis caused by vaccine is more or less severe vs. myocarditis caused by COVID-19. What the article references is a report that 76% of vaccine-associated myocarditis events were described as mild [0]. > A total of 76% of cases of myocarditis were described as mild and 22% as intermediate; 1 case was associated with cardiogenic shock. After a median follow-up of 83 days after the onset of myocarditis, 1 patient had been readmitted to the hospital, and 1 had died of an unknown cause after discharge. Of 14 patients who had left ventricular dysfunction on echocardiography during admission, 10 still had such dysfunction at the time of hospital discharge. Of these patients, 5 underwent subsequent testing that revealed normal heart function. We also know that long term effects of COVID-19 overall i.e. not only myocarditis are not always mild and can be debilitating even for people below 40, even after mild COVID-19. See my reply here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29564815 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29564815 [0] https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2110737 https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2110737

soco 5y ago

> We estimated an extra two (95% confidence interval (CI) 0, 3), one (95% CI 0, 2) and six (95% CI 2, 8) myocarditis events per 1 million people vaccinated with ChAdOx1, BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273, respectively, in the 28 days following a first dose and an extra ten (95% CI 7, 11) myocarditis events per 1 million vaccinated in the 28 days after a second dose of mRNA-1273. This compares with an extra 40 (95% CI 38, 41) myocarditis events per 1 million patients in the 28 days following a SARS-CoV-2 positive test. The way I read it, they counted 2+1+6=9 incidences more for one dose, another 10 for two doses (total 19), compared to 40 more if you got Covid. So basically the vaccine decreased the incidence for the infected.

nabla9 5y ago

Milder and you are still several orders of magnitude less likely to die because you are protected from COVID. Only with children age <15 the cost benefit ratio gets close.

kkjjkgjjgg 5y ago

Also you have to factor in the probability to catch Covid to begin with. Some say everybody will get it eventually, but I don't think it is a given. Or maybe when you get it, it could be a less severe strain by then.