4 ms·

Really? http://www.transistorcount.com/ http://www.transistorcount.com/ Slope seem a bit more gentle - but certainly not gone?

by e12e 5y ago

hyperpallium2 5y ago
You're right about literal Moores Law, but its benefits are much diminished, of performance, power usage and cost. My understanding is the main problem is heat dissipation. I've long predicted macrochips to solve this, brute force of huge quantities of silicon, but it hasn't really happened.
- rictic 5y ago
  Graphics cards and neural accelerators have continued an exponential improvement in performance per watt dollar, which is the intuitive thing that people often mean when they say Moore's law.
adverbly 5y ago
If we hit a trillion transistors by 2030 without increasing chip size, I'll be shocked.
- e12e 5y ago
  I guess it's inevitable that we'll reach a "hard" limit at some point, with exponential increase in density (electrons and photons have a "size"). But I don't know how that translates to current densities (how many atoms in a gate on the Apple m1 chips, and what is the theoretical minimum?).
bitshiftfaced 5y ago
Moore forecasted a doubling of transistor points but a halving of costs. The costs haven't been keeping on pace. https://qph.fs.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-81fb704374c332ad5c5e27e11cbd4ac5-lq https://qph.fs.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-81fb704374c332ad5c5e27... https://www.quora.com/If-the-Moores-law-is-slowing-down-can-the-slow-down-be-solved-by-increasing-the-size-of-the-chip-so-the-chip-can-have-more-free-space-where-more-transistors-will-be-put-If-this-is-not-a-good-solution-what-other https://www.quora.com/If-the-Moores-law-is-slowing-down-can-...
- e12e 5y ago
  Did he make a clear statement on cost? On a skim of: https://newsroom.intel.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2018/05/moores-law-electronics.pdf https://newsroom.intel.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2018/... I see costs mentioned - but I can't immediately see a clear statement - to tie it in with transistor increase - but I might be overlooking something?
  - bitshiftfaced 5y ago
    On page two he charts cost per transistor dropping roughly an order of magnitude every 5 years. Since the the "law" of doubling transistors is on a two year time span, this roughly matches.

Really? http://www.transistorcount.com/ http://www.transistorcount.com/ Slope seem a bit more gentle - but certainly not gone?

by e12e 5y ago

Really? http://www.transistorcount.com/ http://www.transistorcount.com/ Slope seem a bit more gentle - but certainly not gone?

hyperpallium2 5y ago

You're right about literal Moores Law, but its benefits are much diminished, of performance, power usage and cost. My understanding is the main problem is heat dissipation. I've long predicted macrochips to solve this, brute force of huge quantities of silicon, but it hasn't really happened.

rictic 5y ago
Graphics cards and neural accelerators have continued an exponential improvement in performance per watt dollar, which is the intuitive thing that people often mean when they say Moore's law.

adverbly 5y ago

If we hit a trillion transistors by 2030 without increasing chip size, I'll be shocked.

e12e 5y ago
I guess it's inevitable that we'll reach a "hard" limit at some point, with exponential increase in density (electrons and photons have a "size"). But I don't know how that translates to current densities (how many atoms in a gate on the Apple m1 chips, and what is the theoretical minimum?).

bitshiftfaced 5y ago

Moore forecasted a doubling of transistor points but a halving of costs. The costs haven't been keeping on pace. https://qph.fs.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-81fb704374c332ad5c5e27e11cbd4ac5-lq https://qph.fs.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-81fb704374c332ad5c5e27... https://www.quora.com/If-the-Moores-law-is-slowing-down-can-the-slow-down-be-solved-by-increasing-the-size-of-the-chip-so-the-chip-can-have-more-free-space-where-more-transistors-will-be-put-If-this-is-not-a-good-solution-what-other https://www.quora.com/If-the-Moores-law-is-slowing-down-can-...

e12e 5y ago
Did he make a clear statement on cost? On a skim of: https://newsroom.intel.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2018/05/moores-law-electronics.pdf https://newsroom.intel.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2018/... I see costs mentioned - but I can't immediately see a clear statement - to tie it in with transistor increase - but I might be overlooking something?
- bitshiftfaced 5y ago
  On page two he charts cost per transistor dropping roughly an order of magnitude every 5 years. Since the the "law" of doubling transistors is on a two year time span, this roughly matches.