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Do we even still have Moore's Law? All indications are that it died out a while ago.
by Jiro 5y ago
Do we even still have Moore's Law? All indications are that it died out a while ago.
- e12e 5y agoReally? http://www.transistorcount.com/ http://www.transistorcount.com/ Slope seem a bit more gentle - but certainly not gone?
- hyperpallium2 5y agoYou're right about literal Moores Law, but its benefits are much diminished, of performance, power usage and cost. My understanding is the main problem is heat dissipation. I've long predicted macrochips to solve this, brute force of huge quantities of silicon, but it hasn't really happened.
- rictic 5y agoGraphics cards and neural accelerators have continued an exponential improvement in performance per watt dollar, which is the intuitive thing that people often mean when they say Moore's law.
- adverbly 5y agoIf we hit a trillion transistors by 2030 without increasing chip size, I'll be shocked.
- e12e 5y agoI guess it's inevitable that we'll reach a "hard" limit at some point, with exponential increase in density (electrons and photons have a "size"). But I don't know how that translates to current densities (how many atoms in a gate on the Apple m1 chips, and what is the theoretical minimum?).
- bitshiftfaced 5y agoMoore forecasted a doubling of transistor points but a halving of costs. The costs haven't been keeping on pace. https://qph.fs.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-81fb704374c332ad5c5e27e11cbd4ac5-lq https://qph.fs.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-81fb704374c332ad5c5e27... https://www.quora.com/If-the-Moores-law-is-slowing-down-can-the-slow-down-be-solved-by-increasing-the-size-of-the-chip-so-the-chip-can-have-more-free-space-where-more-transistors-will-be-put-If-this-is-not-a-good-solution-what-other https://www.quora.com/If-the-Moores-law-is-slowing-down-can-...
- e12e 5y agoDid he make a clear statement on cost? On a skim of: https://newsroom.intel.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2018/05/moores-law-electronics.pdf https://newsroom.intel.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2018/... I see costs mentioned - but I can't immediately see a clear statement - to tie it in with transistor increase - but I might be overlooking something?
- bitshiftfaced 5y agoOn page two he charts cost per transistor dropping roughly an order of magnitude every 5 years. Since the the "law" of doubling transistors is on a two year time span, this roughly matches.
- wing-_-nuts 5y agoIf you're going strictly on number of transistors, I think we're still going up up and away. If you're talking about performance, which is what most folks really care about, we really are hitting thermal limits especially with consumer hardware. AMD, Nvidia and intel are all hitting the 'heat wall' with their hardware just trying to cram more into smaller nodes and boost clocks. Nvidia's 4000 series cards are rumored to be 500W cards which is well into 'space heater' territory.
- kemiller 5y agoTransistor density/cost still helps with the inherently-parallel ML workloads.