5 ms·

Omicron cases are mild so far

15 points by mpweiher 5y ago

mpweiher 5y ago
This could be the "endemic version" of COVID that we've been looking for. Particularly if it really is so much more infectious than the other variants and so manages to displace them.
- newsbinator 5y ago
  Could be. We've been waiting/hoping for something endemic but mild. But there's no particular reason COVID would need to get any more mild than Delta.
  - Teever 5y ago
    > But there's no particular reason COVID would need to get any more mild than Delta. Can you elaborate?
    - Mikeb85 5y ago
      Which variants survive in the wild is natural selection. Too deadly and it kills the host before spreading. The viruses that spread the most are the ones least noticed. Example: common cold viruses. They're essentially always there and only make you sick when your immune system weakens a bit, and goes away quickly as well.
      - dham 5y ago
        Speak for yourself, my son has brought home some gnarly stuff over the past few years lol. About 3 years ago I was sick for like a month and felt not great for 2 months haha.
        Mikeb85 5y ago
        Could have been a flu in that case. Colds are usually pretty benign though.
    - newsbinator 5y ago
      Viruses evolve to become more mild because very sick or dead hosts are bad spreaders. Covid has a long incubation period before symptom onset (when somebody notices and isolates or becomes bed-bound). So Covid, especially Delta, spreads well for days, whether or not ultimately symptoms are mild or ultimately it causes death. Therefore a mild version of Delta wouldn't necessarily outcompete a non-mild version of Delta, all other things being equal.
      - CogitoCogito 5y ago
        > Viruses evolve to become more mild because very sick or dead hosts are bad spreaders. This need not be true. There are many ways a virus could spread more while simultaneously making people sicker and causing more death. For example, a strain evolving to cause people to be contagious and spread for twice as long as now and then killing everyone could very well spread more than it does now.
    - anothernewdude 5y ago
      Diseases don't really need to become mild if they can spread sufficiently fast and aren't killing their host before they can so.
  - nradov 5y ago
    SARS-CoV-2 is already endemic, and causes mild common cold symptoms for the vast majority of youths. This is exactly the same as the other four endemic human coronaviruses. Most of us get infected with those when we're young and the resulting immunity protects us when we're older.
- elif 5y ago
  Why would that be something to look forward to? can't it still mutate to cause harm?
  - richardatlarge 5y ago
    Variants can have mixed qualities. For example, one could be suitable for maximum spreading yet also have a weakness that makes it easier to treat as an illness
  - sgtnoodle 5y ago
    My understanding is that diseases tend to naturally select to be more contagious but less harmful. The more contagious more harmful mutations tend to die out because they incapacitate the host before maximally spreading vs. less harmful mutations. Not to say it's not possible for a more harmful mutation to spread widely, just that it's not the expected evolution.
    - VirusNewbie 5y ago
      In a vacuum this isn't true: diseases will select to be more transmissible, that can mean less deadly, but not always, think HIV. If the incubation time is long enough before death, then it could not matter. So, you could imagine a nightmare scenario where some disease selects to have a longer incubation time while still transmitting, but then causes more severe disease down the road. However, because we have vaccines, I do think ultimately you're right. If it turns out that omicron (or another variant) is basically a cold but also evades current vaccines, I think society will 'allow' it to become endemic.
      - QuarterReptile 5y ago
        On your first paragraph, I agree entirely. Regarding the second: with the vaccines only preventing or reducing severe symptoms without seeming to reduce viral load, they slow the progress of respiratory viruses toward low-impact variants. The mechanism of this is that sick people stay home and consequently, if you are a viral variant that makes people sick, you get outcompeted by variants that allow people to go about their days and keep spreading. In this sense, low vaccination rates of Africa may be just what we needed.
fithisux 5y ago
This is a trick. They will say it is mild and then suddenly they will try to spin everything into extreme fear ... and oppression. Well known recipe.
- QuarterReptile 5y ago
  You're saying that they're lying to make it seem innocuous? First, who are they? And what's the motive?
- m00x 5y ago
  What is "they"? What we've seen so far for measures have been completely inline with what the scientists recommend, and you can't argue the severity of virus that caused 5.2M deaths globally. This comment just feels like FUD itself.
  - fy20 5y ago
    I'm not sure the current restrictions segmenting vaccinated vs unvaccinated people in Europe would fall under that. In my country you need to be vaccinated and wear a 3-ply mask to go to a supermarket to get milk, but it's A-OK to go to a dance class for 1.5 hours with 30 other people and not be vaccinated or wear a mask.
  - QuarterReptile 5y ago
    While I think the comment is probably not saying anything worthwhile, let's not pretend that the scientists' recommendations were reached impartially around Covid on any consistent basis, starting at least with when the WHO concealed information about covid in early 2020.
theknocker 5y ago
Fucking imagine that.
Factorium 5y ago
Pfizer up 25% MoM: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/PFE:NYSE?window=1M https://www.google.com/finance/quote/PFE:NYSE?window=1M Moderna up 24% in the last 5 days: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/MRNA:NASDAQ?window=5D https://www.google.com/finance/quote/MRNA:NASDAQ?window=5D New variants are great for business!
- pfdietz 5y ago
  Pfizer has also announced they can get a new vaccine out for a new strain in 100 days (assuming regulators approve.)
mrlonglong 5y ago
This is not true - this comes from a misquoted south African doctor. The variant is still dangerous.
- ifonlyugnu 5y ago
  Source?

15 points by mpweiher 5y ago

This could be the "endemic version" of COVID that we've been looking for. Particularly if it really is so much more infectious than the other variants and so manages to displace them.

newsbinator 5y ago
Could be. We've been waiting/hoping for something endemic but mild. But there's no particular reason COVID would need to get any more mild than Delta.
- Teever 5y ago
  > But there's no particular reason COVID would need to get any more mild than Delta. Can you elaborate?
  - Mikeb85 5y ago
    Which variants survive in the wild is natural selection. Too deadly and it kills the host before spreading. The viruses that spread the most are the ones least noticed. Example: common cold viruses. They're essentially always there and only make you sick when your immune system weakens a bit, and goes away quickly as well.
    - dham 5y ago
      Speak for yourself, my son has brought home some gnarly stuff over the past few years lol. About 3 years ago I was sick for like a month and felt not great for 2 months haha.
      - Mikeb85 5y ago
        Could have been a flu in that case. Colds are usually pretty benign though.
  - newsbinator 5y ago
    Viruses evolve to become more mild because very sick or dead hosts are bad spreaders. Covid has a long incubation period before symptom onset (when somebody notices and isolates or becomes bed-bound). So Covid, especially Delta, spreads well for days, whether or not ultimately symptoms are mild or ultimately it causes death. Therefore a mild version of Delta wouldn't necessarily outcompete a non-mild version of Delta, all other things being equal.
    - CogitoCogito 5y ago
      > Viruses evolve to become more mild because very sick or dead hosts are bad spreaders. This need not be true. There are many ways a virus could spread more while simultaneously making people sicker and causing more death. For example, a strain evolving to cause people to be contagious and spread for twice as long as now and then killing everyone could very well spread more than it does now.
  - anothernewdude 5y ago
    Diseases don't really need to become mild if they can spread sufficiently fast and aren't killing their host before they can so.
- nradov 5y ago
  SARS-CoV-2 is already endemic, and causes mild common cold symptoms for the vast majority of youths. This is exactly the same as the other four endemic human coronaviruses. Most of us get infected with those when we're young and the resulting immunity protects us when we're older.
elif 5y ago
Why would that be something to look forward to? can't it still mutate to cause harm?
- richardatlarge 5y ago
  Variants can have mixed qualities. For example, one could be suitable for maximum spreading yet also have a weakness that makes it easier to treat as an illness
- sgtnoodle 5y ago
  My understanding is that diseases tend to naturally select to be more contagious but less harmful. The more contagious more harmful mutations tend to die out because they incapacitate the host before maximally spreading vs. less harmful mutations. Not to say it's not possible for a more harmful mutation to spread widely, just that it's not the expected evolution.
  - VirusNewbie 5y ago
    In a vacuum this isn't true: diseases will select to be more transmissible, that can mean less deadly, but not always, think HIV. If the incubation time is long enough before death, then it could not matter. So, you could imagine a nightmare scenario where some disease selects to have a longer incubation time while still transmitting, but then causes more severe disease down the road. However, because we have vaccines, I do think ultimately you're right. If it turns out that omicron (or another variant) is basically a cold but also evades current vaccines, I think society will 'allow' it to become endemic.
    - QuarterReptile 5y ago
      On your first paragraph, I agree entirely. Regarding the second: with the vaccines only preventing or reducing severe symptoms without seeming to reduce viral load, they slow the progress of respiratory viruses toward low-impact variants. The mechanism of this is that sick people stay home and consequently, if you are a viral variant that makes people sick, you get outcompeted by variants that allow people to go about their days and keep spreading. In this sense, low vaccination rates of Africa may be just what we needed.

fithisux 5y ago

This is a trick. They will say it is mild and then suddenly they will try to spin everything into extreme fear ... and oppression. Well known recipe.

QuarterReptile 5y ago
You're saying that they're lying to make it seem innocuous? First, who are they? And what's the motive?
m00x 5y ago
What is "they"? What we've seen so far for measures have been completely inline with what the scientists recommend, and you can't argue the severity of virus that caused 5.2M deaths globally. This comment just feels like FUD itself.
- fy20 5y ago
  I'm not sure the current restrictions segmenting vaccinated vs unvaccinated people in Europe would fall under that. In my country you need to be vaccinated and wear a 3-ply mask to go to a supermarket to get milk, but it's A-OK to go to a dance class for 1.5 hours with 30 other people and not be vaccinated or wear a mask.
- QuarterReptile 5y ago
  While I think the comment is probably not saying anything worthwhile, let's not pretend that the scientists' recommendations were reached impartially around Covid on any consistent basis, starting at least with when the WHO concealed information about covid in early 2020.

theknocker 5y ago

Fucking imagine that.

Factorium 5y ago

Pfizer up 25% MoM: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/PFE:NYSE?window=1M https://www.google.com/finance/quote/PFE:NYSE?window=1M Moderna up 24% in the last 5 days: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/MRNA:NASDAQ?window=5D https://www.google.com/finance/quote/MRNA:NASDAQ?window=5D New variants are great for business!

pfdietz 5y ago
Pfizer has also announced they can get a new vaccine out for a new strain in 100 days (assuming regulators approve.)

mrlonglong 5y ago

This is not true - this comes from a misquoted south African doctor. The variant is still dangerous.

ifonlyugnu 5y ago
Source?