11 ms·

Pandemic skyrockets in Europe; Covid is the No. 1 cause of death

27 points by wyrm 5y ago

TurkishPoptart 5y ago
In Germany, 52,000,000 out of 80-some million are double vaccinated. If these vaccines were effective at producing a sort of herd immunity, we would be beginning to see the result. So why aren't we? Secondly, in this article we see "cases skyrocketing". But what does that really mean? If I am sick in hospital and tested every day, is each positive test considered a case? Likewise, if I was in a car accident and tested positive for COVID-19, despite being asymptomatic, is that considered a case as well? Or if I'm double vaccinated and have a breakthrough infection (which is increasingly common), is that also a case? 18 months into this, the word "cases" has lost significance for me. I'm going to get blasted for this, but I just can't help seeing a connection between articles like these and the machinations of states to enact further restrictions, mandate booster shots, and largely close off society to the "unvaccinated", which, in my experience is people who've recovered from COVID and have natural immunity. My authoritarian government refuses to recognize natural immunity as a thing, with the guidance being to get vaccinated _anyway_, and heck, trust the science and get 3 shots, even though research on this is slim-to-none. The most vulnerable to COVID-19 are old, obese, and infirm. Not young adults or kids. And yet state governments are treating this as a "black death" scenario for everyone.
- credit_guy 5y ago
  > we see "cases skyrocketing". But what does that really mean? How about more people dying? You can't die twice. Take Germany for example. In August there were about 15 deaths per day, now it's more than 200. Another big country, Poland: over the summer there were less than 10 deathy daily, now it's about 300. Hungary is smaller, but while in the summer there were consistently less than 5 deaths daily, now it's almost 150. If this is not skyrocketing, then what is?
  - angelzen 5y ago
    Covid is dangerous. Media hyperbole is also dangerous. Western Europe countries are experiencing a covid wave, hopefully it will peter out in a couple of months. Though we will never hear "cases falling through the floor" in the media, they'll just shift the attention to the next hotspot. Austria, which is a bit ahead of the curve, is seeing deaths plateauing at 5/day/M. Hopefully they already crested the peak. Be wary of "skyrocketing" claims from questionable sources. Precedents: * Florida, which was hypermediatized in late summer, then silently recovered. * Balkan countries, which had an early wave, and are on a recovery course. Note how their case numbers didn't go that high, most likely because they are poor and testing penetration is not that high. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/region/us/florida https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/region/us/florida https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&uniformYAxis=0&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Cases+and+deaths&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=DEU~AUT~NLD~ROU~BGR https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...
    - xg15 5y ago
      Questionable sources such as the German CDC?
      - angelzen 5y ago
        Article in arstechnica.com
        xg15 5y ago
        RKI status report for last week[1], translated via Google: > The rising trend of 7-day incidences observed since the end of September 2021 has in the last weeks significantly accelerated. The current number of cases is already higher than all so far at the peaks of the previous waves of disease. This high Infection pressure in the population increasingly affects vulnerable groups as well as especially vulnerable people in the older age groups. This also leads to a significant increase in Severe disease courses and deaths and the occurrence of vaccination are more likely to rupture. Sounds a lot like "skyrocketing" to me. [1] https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Wochenbericht/Wochenbericht_2021-11-18.pdf?__blob=publicationFile https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus...
- Tagbert 5y ago
  Even for those not at significant risk of death, there are long term health impacts among COVID survivors. Death is not the only risk.
  - thenewnormal 5y ago
    Indeed. I hear that over half of people have a cough for weeks afterwards.
    - TurkishPoptart 5y ago
      Having a cough is not enough of a threat to mandate forced booster shots on people (which will happen in US within 1-2 months.)
  - twiddling 5y ago
    https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/qzu1rc/a_detailed_description_of_how_you_die_from_covid/ https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/qzu1rc/a_detailed... Loss of digits, reduced lung capacity, loss of smell, and the death is not a graceful one...
- nradov 5y ago
  There is no expectation that vaccines will produce a significant herd immunity effect. Fortunately they are pretty good at preventing deaths. https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immunity-not-possible-astrazeneca-developer-2021-8?r=US&IR=T https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immu...
  - TurkishPoptart 5y ago
    OK. So why are governments going to mandate these "vaccines"? Remember the CDC had to change the definition of vaccine to account for these not preventing illness. Source: https://twitter.com/RepThomasMassie/status/1435606845926871041 https://twitter.com/RepThomasMassie/status/14356068459268710...
    - xg15 5y ago
      Can you explain what exactly is the difference between those definitions? And yes. Covid vaccines don't prevent the virus from spreading, as much as we had hoped they do. This has been communicated extensively. What they still do is reduce probability of spreading and reduce probability of a hospitalisation. The former means there are still chances at obtaining herd immunity, it just raises the bar for it. The latter means that vaccines are still important to keep hospitals from being overrun.
      - angelzen 5y ago
        CDC deleted the expression "to produce immunity to a specific disease" from the vaccine definition, but still defines: "Immunity: Protection from an infectious disease. If you are immune to a disease, you can be exposed to it without becoming infected." https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vac-gen/imz-basics.htm https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vac-gen/imz-basics.htm
        xg15 5y ago
        Ok, that makes sense. The Covid vaccines don't prevent infection in many cases (though they make infection less likely). That's not a secret.
- Tagbert 5y ago
  Regarding Germany, as the article mentions “only 68 percent of people fully vaccinated”. That leaves a large population among which the virus can circulate. 68% is not a high enough immunity rate to fully block infections. Almost all of the people admitted to the hospital for COVID were not vaccinated. No, you testing positive for multiple tests does not increase the number of infections. You are only one person. Yes, if you are in a car wreck and are tested and found positive, you will be counted as an infection. The car wreck is irrelevant. What matters is the infection. I agree that a previous, verified COVID infection maybe should be counted as offering some level of protection. You may still want to get a booster as natural immunity has not been shown to be as durable as vaccine induced immunity. If the unvaccinated were to get a vaccine, we would be able to drop the restrictions that you and everyone dislikes. Failure to get vaccinated just drags this out longer.
  - t0mas88 5y ago
    Previously infected counts in many places. You get a QR code to access things like bars and festivals if you've recovered in the last 6 months.
    - peteradio 5y ago
      Oh Wow golly gee freedom for a whole 6 months!
  - mandmandam 5y ago
    Ireland is 94% vaccinated (among adults); we still have such high case numbers that lockdown over Christmas seems imminent. Gibraltar is 100% vaccinated, and under lockdown. Yes, being in a car wreck matters. More broadly, the fact that efforts haven't been made to distinguish between dying from a 90mph impact and dying from Corona has been used to scare the wits out of people. Natural immunity has been shown to be 6-14x as effective as full vaccination. The fact that fully vaccinated people have the same viral load with Delta invalidates a huge amount of your (and the Irish government's) reasoning behind demonizing the unvaccinated. It's been pretty shocking seeing people accept the use of unvaccinated people as a scapegoat for lack of investment in ICU beds, nurses, air quality standards, and antigen testing etc. It helps you feel smug and superior, but doesn't actually help convince anyone. ... I suggest you look into all of this a bit more before trying to speak with authority on these issues.
- xg15 5y ago
  > But what does that really mean? If I am sick in hospital and tested every day, is each positive test considered a case? Why should anyone do this? The goal is to either track cases of infection with SARS-CoV-2 or symptoms, hospitalisation or death caused by it. This goal is often not attainable in practice, which leads to approximate measures such as counting deaths in which a SARS-CoV-2 infection might, with high likelihood, have contributed or something like that. You can certainly criticize details, but counting each test as a new case is obvious nonsense. > Likewise, if I was in a car accident and tested positive for COVID-19, despite being asymptomatic, is that considered a case as well? Again, what do you want to count? If you want to count infections, yes, this would be a case. If you're counting deaths, why should anyone count this as it's obvious that covid doesn't cause car accidents? Or if I'm double vaccinated and have a breakthrough infection (which is increasingly common), is that also a case? Why should this not be counted as a case? > the "unvaccinated", which, in my experience is people who've recovered from COVID and have natural immunity. My authoritarian government refuses to recognize natural immunity as a thing Maybe in Turkey, I can't say that. At least in Germany, recovered individuals are tracked separately and are treated equivalent to vaccinated. However, like with vaccines, natural immunity weakens with time, which is why booster shots are recommend for those as well. To my knowledge, there are various studies describing how immunity acquired through different means weakens. > even though research on this is slim-to-none. Is that so?
splittingTimes 5y ago
This explanation does not seem too far fetched https://twitter.com/kparve/status/1462398425924780040 https://twitter.com/kparve/status/1462398425924780040
sputr 5y ago
In Slovenia doctors warned today that the system is so stretched any mass casualty event (highway pileup etc.) would be a problem to handle. But in reality the scariest part is the daily "we found the extra 20 intensive beds [aka staff, which is the main constraint] we needed but now we're at capacity. But then the same story repeats the next day. Lots of people have started taking this a proof that there is no problem. But the doctors have said publicly what is happening: they keep lowering standards. I suspect that an acute collapse is unlikely due to this. But my heart bleeds for those who are hospitalised under such conditions. But what worries me most is that society will learn nothing from this. An acute collapse would be a lesson that would prevent such suffering. But as its going now its just proving to society in general that unrestricted individualism works.
ahdh8f4hf4h8 5y ago
Are there any experts here that can explain why rates are dropping in Japan, India, and a few other countries? Is it different flu seasons, different treatments, a new strain that is causing delta to self destruct, other? I have read theories but am legit curious.
- trinovantes 5y ago
  Collective societies value the greater good of society over their personal needs and thus more receptive to vaccines, self isolation, mask wearing etc

27 points by wyrm 5y ago

In Germany, 52,000,000 out of 80-some million are double vaccinated. If these vaccines were effective at producing a sort of herd immunity, we would be beginning to see the result. So why aren't we? Secondly, in this article we see "cases skyrocketing". But what does that really mean? If I am sick in hospital and tested every day, is each positive test considered a case? Likewise, if I was in a car accident and tested positive for COVID-19, despite being asymptomatic, is that considered a case as well? Or if I'm double vaccinated and have a breakthrough infection (which is increasingly common), is that also a case? 18 months into this, the word "cases" has lost significance for me. I'm going to get blasted for this, but I just can't help seeing a connection between articles like these and the machinations of states to enact further restrictions, mandate booster shots, and largely close off society to the "unvaccinated", which, in my experience is people who've recovered from COVID and have natural immunity. My authoritarian government refuses to recognize natural immunity as a thing, with the guidance being to get vaccinated _anyway_, and heck, trust the science and get 3 shots, even though research on this is slim-to-none. The most vulnerable to COVID-19 are old, obese, and infirm. Not young adults or kids. And yet state governments are treating this as a "black death" scenario for everyone.

credit_guy 5y ago
> we see "cases skyrocketing". But what does that really mean? How about more people dying? You can't die twice. Take Germany for example. In August there were about 15 deaths per day, now it's more than 200. Another big country, Poland: over the summer there were less than 10 deathy daily, now it's about 300. Hungary is smaller, but while in the summer there were consistently less than 5 deaths daily, now it's almost 150. If this is not skyrocketing, then what is?
- angelzen 5y ago
  Covid is dangerous. Media hyperbole is also dangerous. Western Europe countries are experiencing a covid wave, hopefully it will peter out in a couple of months. Though we will never hear "cases falling through the floor" in the media, they'll just shift the attention to the next hotspot. Austria, which is a bit ahead of the curve, is seeing deaths plateauing at 5/day/M. Hopefully they already crested the peak. Be wary of "skyrocketing" claims from questionable sources. Precedents: * Florida, which was hypermediatized in late summer, then silently recovered. * Balkan countries, which had an early wave, and are on a recovery course. Note how their case numbers didn't go that high, most likely because they are poor and testing penetration is not that high. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/region/us/florida https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/region/us/florida https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&uniformYAxis=0&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Cases+and+deaths&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=DEU~AUT~NLD~ROU~BGR https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...
  - xg15 5y ago
    Questionable sources such as the German CDC?
    - angelzen 5y ago
      Article in arstechnica.com
      - xg15 5y ago
        RKI status report for last week[1], translated via Google: > The rising trend of 7-day incidences observed since the end of September 2021 has in the last weeks significantly accelerated. The current number of cases is already higher than all so far at the peaks of the previous waves of disease. This high Infection pressure in the population increasingly affects vulnerable groups as well as especially vulnerable people in the older age groups. This also leads to a significant increase in Severe disease courses and deaths and the occurrence of vaccination are more likely to rupture. Sounds a lot like "skyrocketing" to me. [1] https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Wochenbericht/Wochenbericht_2021-11-18.pdf?__blob=publicationFile https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus...
Tagbert 5y ago
Even for those not at significant risk of death, there are long term health impacts among COVID survivors. Death is not the only risk.
- thenewnormal 5y ago
  Indeed. I hear that over half of people have a cough for weeks afterwards.
  - TurkishPoptart 5y ago
    Having a cough is not enough of a threat to mandate forced booster shots on people (which will happen in US within 1-2 months.)
- twiddling 5y ago
  https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/qzu1rc/a_detailed_description_of_how_you_die_from_covid/ https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/qzu1rc/a_detailed... Loss of digits, reduced lung capacity, loss of smell, and the death is not a graceful one...
nradov 5y ago
There is no expectation that vaccines will produce a significant herd immunity effect. Fortunately they are pretty good at preventing deaths. https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immunity-not-possible-astrazeneca-developer-2021-8?r=US&IR=T https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immu...
- TurkishPoptart 5y ago
  OK. So why are governments going to mandate these "vaccines"? Remember the CDC had to change the definition of vaccine to account for these not preventing illness. Source: https://twitter.com/RepThomasMassie/status/1435606845926871041 https://twitter.com/RepThomasMassie/status/14356068459268710...
  - xg15 5y ago
    Can you explain what exactly is the difference between those definitions? And yes. Covid vaccines don't prevent the virus from spreading, as much as we had hoped they do. This has been communicated extensively. What they still do is reduce probability of spreading and reduce probability of a hospitalisation. The former means there are still chances at obtaining herd immunity, it just raises the bar for it. The latter means that vaccines are still important to keep hospitals from being overrun.
    - angelzen 5y ago
      CDC deleted the expression "to produce immunity to a specific disease" from the vaccine definition, but still defines: "Immunity: Protection from an infectious disease. If you are immune to a disease, you can be exposed to it without becoming infected." https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vac-gen/imz-basics.htm https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vac-gen/imz-basics.htm
      - xg15 5y ago
        Ok, that makes sense. The Covid vaccines don't prevent infection in many cases (though they make infection less likely). That's not a secret.
Tagbert 5y ago
Regarding Germany, as the article mentions “only 68 percent of people fully vaccinated”. That leaves a large population among which the virus can circulate. 68% is not a high enough immunity rate to fully block infections. Almost all of the people admitted to the hospital for COVID were not vaccinated. No, you testing positive for multiple tests does not increase the number of infections. You are only one person. Yes, if you are in a car wreck and are tested and found positive, you will be counted as an infection. The car wreck is irrelevant. What matters is the infection. I agree that a previous, verified COVID infection maybe should be counted as offering some level of protection. You may still want to get a booster as natural immunity has not been shown to be as durable as vaccine induced immunity. If the unvaccinated were to get a vaccine, we would be able to drop the restrictions that you and everyone dislikes. Failure to get vaccinated just drags this out longer.
- t0mas88 5y ago
  Previously infected counts in many places. You get a QR code to access things like bars and festivals if you've recovered in the last 6 months.
  - peteradio 5y ago
    Oh Wow golly gee freedom for a whole 6 months!
- mandmandam 5y ago
  Ireland is 94% vaccinated (among adults); we still have such high case numbers that lockdown over Christmas seems imminent. Gibraltar is 100% vaccinated, and under lockdown. Yes, being in a car wreck matters. More broadly, the fact that efforts haven't been made to distinguish between dying from a 90mph impact and dying from Corona has been used to scare the wits out of people. Natural immunity has been shown to be 6-14x as effective as full vaccination. The fact that fully vaccinated people have the same viral load with Delta invalidates a huge amount of your (and the Irish government's) reasoning behind demonizing the unvaccinated. It's been pretty shocking seeing people accept the use of unvaccinated people as a scapegoat for lack of investment in ICU beds, nurses, air quality standards, and antigen testing etc. It helps you feel smug and superior, but doesn't actually help convince anyone. ... I suggest you look into all of this a bit more before trying to speak with authority on these issues.
xg15 5y ago
> But what does that really mean? If I am sick in hospital and tested every day, is each positive test considered a case? Why should anyone do this? The goal is to either track cases of infection with SARS-CoV-2 or symptoms, hospitalisation or death caused by it. This goal is often not attainable in practice, which leads to approximate measures such as counting deaths in which a SARS-CoV-2 infection might, with high likelihood, have contributed or something like that. You can certainly criticize details, but counting each test as a new case is obvious nonsense. > Likewise, if I was in a car accident and tested positive for COVID-19, despite being asymptomatic, is that considered a case as well? Again, what do you want to count? If you want to count infections, yes, this would be a case. If you're counting deaths, why should anyone count this as it's obvious that covid doesn't cause car accidents? Or if I'm double vaccinated and have a breakthrough infection (which is increasingly common), is that also a case? Why should this not be counted as a case? > the "unvaccinated", which, in my experience is people who've recovered from COVID and have natural immunity. My authoritarian government refuses to recognize natural immunity as a thing Maybe in Turkey, I can't say that. At least in Germany, recovered individuals are tracked separately and are treated equivalent to vaccinated. However, like with vaccines, natural immunity weakens with time, which is why booster shots are recommend for those as well. To my knowledge, there are various studies describing how immunity acquired through different means weakens. > even though research on this is slim-to-none. Is that so?

splittingTimes 5y ago

This explanation does not seem too far fetched https://twitter.com/kparve/status/1462398425924780040 https://twitter.com/kparve/status/1462398425924780040

sputr 5y ago

In Slovenia doctors warned today that the system is so stretched any mass casualty event (highway pileup etc.) would be a problem to handle. But in reality the scariest part is the daily "we found the extra 20 intensive beds [aka staff, which is the main constraint] we needed but now we're at capacity. But then the same story repeats the next day. Lots of people have started taking this a proof that there is no problem. But the doctors have said publicly what is happening: they keep lowering standards. I suspect that an acute collapse is unlikely due to this. But my heart bleeds for those who are hospitalised under such conditions. But what worries me most is that society will learn nothing from this. An acute collapse would be a lesson that would prevent such suffering. But as its going now its just proving to society in general that unrestricted individualism works.

ahdh8f4hf4h8 5y ago

Are there any experts here that can explain why rates are dropping in Japan, India, and a few other countries? Is it different flu seasons, different treatments, a new strain that is causing delta to self destruct, other? I have read theories but am legit curious.

trinovantes 5y ago
Collective societies value the greater good of society over their personal needs and thus more receptive to vaccines, self isolation, mask wearing etc