8 ms·
No, it increases the security and continuity of our civilization when China invades Taiwan.
by justinzollars 5y ago
No, it increases the security and continuity of our civilization when China invades Taiwan.
- consumer451 5y agoWell, there's a huge benefit of COVID. The related chip shortage finally woke up the US gov on supply chains. My question is why did it take this long? I have been worried about this for nearly a decade. My next question is how many mask factories have we built in the US since we realized that was important?
- echelon 5y agoWe shouldn't stop there. America needs to make steel again. Plastics. Chemicals. We need to make electronics, fertilizers, tools. Everything we need should be onshored. Especially if we expect a cold war with our biggest producer.
- lkbm 5y agoThe "imperialist" model can still work fine if we want to stick with it. We can keep production in poorer countries with poor worker and environmental protections so long as those countries will clearly side with us and aren't all concentrated in China's sphere of influence. No one's doing a naval blockade of the entire US coastline. And even if they did, we also have some long land borders with allies.
- markus_zhang 5y agoThe problem is that US needs to find responsible governments other than the ones close to China. There are not many in the world. They are poor for some reasons. BTW when I say responsible governments I don't mean democratic, but mean they care about people's education, can keep long term policies and build good infrastructures.
- lkbm 5y ago> My question is why did it take this long? In general, I'd say we've been able to deal with issues by outbidding other countries and exerting international political influence. > My next question is how many mask factories have we built in the US since we realized that was important? We're so bad at building. I'd add to your question with: how custom-built do factories need to be to be efficient? I expect chip fab is very tailored, but can a t-shirt factory quickly pivot to surgical masks? How about N-95? Can a vacuum cleaner factory start building ventilators? How about HEPA filters? mRNA vaccines? What are critical things we may need to ramp up rapidly, not just for pandemics, but for the next disaster, and can they be done without building dedicated factories just for those items? Humans are fabulously general-purpose, so I'd imagine that the more automated the process, the more expensive it is to switch. This would put high-wage countries like the US at a disadvantage with regard to flexible domestic manufacturing. But I've no expertise in this area at all. These are questions and guesses, not questions and answers. :-)
- max-ibel 5y agoThe machines to make mask material are very different from other textile machines. They are expensive, and take a long time to build. https://www.oerlikon.com/polymer-processing/en/solutions-technologies/from-melt-to%E2%80%A6/nonwoven-material/ https://www.oerlikon.com/polymer-processing/en/solutions-tec...
- adventured 5y ago> My next question is how many mask factories have we built in the US since we realized that was important? It's not important. Masks don't effectively stop the transmission of SARS2 and N95 masks are only highly effective against something as infectious as SARS2 Delta if you wear them precisely as intended (and to go with that you need to take many other precautions that the mass population is never going to take with great precision on a day to day basis). Even the vaccines don't stop Delta effectively, which you can plainly see from the large outbreaks in highly vaccinated nations. > My question is why did it take this long? Because the US Government spends nearly all of its effort on dumb shit, like shuffling papers, playing at admin, processing lobbyist appointments, screeching out empty promises every 2-4 years, going on talk shows and managing PR, managing a globalist superpower clown show, projecting power to every corner of the globe for no great reason other than to fulfill the powerlust of those in control. They're supposed to be running our government for our people. They're simultaneously running the equivalent of one of the world's largest governments outside of our borders. Think about that for a moment. Do I think the people in power can run the US Government, domestically, effectively? Hell no. Do I think they can then simultaneously run a gigantic other foreign system - military bases, personnel, war, huge embassies, global trade, sticking their noses in every foreign political issue and at all times - on top of that? Triple hell no.
- phkahler 5y ago>> My next question is how many mask factories have we built in the US since we realized that was important? There's a guy with a small company that makes N95 masks in the US. He got pissed when they came looking for a production increase. He would be happy to increase production, but nobody was willing to buy from him long-term. They'll just go back to importing cheaper product (probably from China) after the crisis is over. He basically told them to go pound sand. I just Googled this and it seems a bunch of companies tried to increase production: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/10/health/covid-masks-china-united-states.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/10/health/covid-masks-china-... The original guy basically said nobody wants to pay for anything, and I think he's right.
- sumedh 5y ago> (probably from China) Not only China, they most likely come from Wuhan where the pandemic started.
- trasz 5y agoThing is, you are assuming that’s what is important. Look at the billions the US spends on military, all of it domestic. In US, the masks are simply less important than all that, as is healthcare in general.
- amelius 5y agoSamsung could build the plant in South Korea?
- dfsegoat 5y agoSame situation. Most of South Koreas infrastructure / urban centers would be decimated in an 'all out' conflict with North Korea. [1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelpeck/2020/08/11/north-koreas-artillery-could-inflict-200000-casualties-in-just-one-hour/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelpeck/2020/08/11/north-ko...
- HideousKojima 5y agoIn particular, all of Seoul is in artillery range of the north
- hermes8329 5y agoRusty dusty equipment that probably won't even fire.. that offensive line is hardly a major threat
- missedthecue 5y agoNK holds regular military exercises. And 152mm guns are tried and true; they aren't exactly the most finicky pieces of equipment. Here's a massive artillery drill they held just a few days ago. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-07/north-korea-conducts-artillery-drill-amid-ally-joint-exercise https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-07/north-kor...
- ratsforhorses 5y agoWhat's to stop China moving in with theirs? I mean after all they're friends and that's what happened during the lasy war...
- AngryData 5y agoIt doesn't matter if it is a 100 year old artillery piece, they aren't exactly complicated, just large breach loaded guns. The only thing modern guns and artillery have over old guns is accuracy, which doesn't really matter when you have enough of them firing down range at a massive target.
- JohnJamesRambo 5y agoThis will cause WWIII so yes we will need chips in that scenario. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen.
- justinzollars 5y agoMaybe it won't cause WWIII
- CoastalCoder 5y agoIf China were to invade Taiwan, I'm guessing that all product flow from China/Taiwan to (most) other countries would stop. If that happened, I'm curious what other manufacturing/product issues would impact other countries, and how long it would take them to adapt. E.g., what tool manufacturing, raw materials mining, etc. are currently happening only in China and/or Taiwan? And that's assuming that China didn't also sabotage industrial capabilities in other countries that depend on Chinese/Taiwanese manufacturing.
- kesselvon 5y agoThe U.S. supply chains would be completely wrecked. We're probably close to a point where in the event of a global war with China, we wouldn't be able to mobilize industry in the same way we did during WW2 simply because the industrial output fo yesteryear no longer exists in the U.S.
- ethbr0 5y agoOn the other hand, people forget the amount of IP (including semi design) that goes from the world to China/Taiwan to design products. But that's what the whole point of free trade is supposed to be: increased interdependence, so that everyone has a gun to everyone else's head, and no one is incentivized to pull the trigger.
- jakeinspace 5y agoChina can manage with loss of most or all access to American/NATO IP. America/NATO can't really manage without Chinese imports.
- hermes8329 5y agoThey just steal the IP anyways
- ethbr0 5y agoThat's not accurate today. It might be different in 10 years, depending on how successful China is at becoming self-sufficient in semiconductor design and manufacturing. Global companies didn't just outsource all the work to China. Even in the 90s, they were aware of the risk/reward, and specifically retained high-value, low-headcount/capital work outside of China. As a result, China makes most of a device, but many core components are imported. https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/huawei-revenue-slides-in-q3-as-smartphone-business-remains-crippled-2021-10-29 https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/huawei-revenue-slides-in-q3-...
- trasz 5y agoChina has no reason to invade Taiwan, and plenty of reasons to avoid doing it. The whole thing is just another American wet dream.
- swagasaurus-rex 5y agoXi Jinping has been threatening invasion for years, and before that, decades of CCP threats. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-58854081 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-58854081
- trasz 5y ago>he said unification in a "peaceful manner" was "most in line with the overall interest of the Chinese nation, including Taiwan compatriots". Are you sure that’s the article you wanted to link to?
- whichfawkes 5y agoAs far as American access to semiconductors goes, it doesn't matter if the takeover is peaceful or not. Chinese control over Taiwan could easily disrupt the supply chain through tariffs, export bans, backdoored hardware, etc etc.
- trasz 5y agoYes, China could do what the US is doing right now. So what?
- tomatofarmer 5y agoDid you feel the same way about Hong Kong?
- FooBarWidget 5y agoSeeing that Hong Kong was literally an NED-sponsored [1] color revolution, and that every country in the world had a national security law except for Hong Kong until last year, I'd say that the Hong Kong situation is not at all a case study for whether China would invade Taiwan. Since 2019 I've watched for a year how the western public and the protesters yelled that "it's going to be a Tiananmen 2.0" and "the tanks will soon roll in", only for the tanks to never have rolled in. In the mean time, the protesters who were called "pro-democracy" by western mainstream media were doing some very undemocratic things, such as assaulting fellow Hong Kongers for merely disagreeing with them[2]. Two Hong Kong youths have a Youtube channel on which they present views that don't align with mainstream western media. This interview is very telling: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zYK-cC9mw6c https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zYK-cC9mw6c The guest on the show interviewed 100 protesters. What's interesting is that none of the protesters were able to explain what concrete change they want. The protesters merely blindly reigurated media talking points without being able to explain what's behind those talking points. None of them have actually read the NSL text. Sound familiar? Yes: the "anti-voting fraud" Capitol rioters, who were hiding unnoble intentions behind a noble label. Many Hong Kong "protesters" were merely anti-China, not pro-democratic. They literally attacked people merely for speaking Mandarin. Ironically, one guy that was attacked was Taiwanese, not mainland Chinese. Seeing how they literally burned innocent people[3], vandalized public infrastructure, vandalized mainland Chinese busineses merely for being mainland Chinese, made petrol bombs[4], etc. is it really reasonable to expect China to do absolutely nothing? Bringing back safety to the streets is what any government would do. After it was clear that they'd never send in tanks, people moved the goalpost and started demonizing the NSL but few people know what's actually in the NSL. Demise of Hong Kong's rule of law are exaggerated. Even after the NSL, Hong Kong's judiciary remains fiercely independent — with evidence.[5] [1] The NED is the regime change arm of the CIA. Despite the name, they are anti-democratic, having overthrown democratic regimes that refuse to align with the US. They publicly admit having sponsored the Hong Kong protests: https://www.ned.org/region/asia/hong-kong-china-2020/ https://www.ned.org/region/asia/hong-kong-china-2020/ [2] Videos: https://twitter.com/DanielDumbrill/status/1166296261672062977 https://twitter.com/DanielDumbrill/status/116629626167206297... [3] https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/law-and-crime/article/3037243/hong-kong-father-two-burned-alive-after-chasing https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/law-and-crime/article/30... [4] https://twitter.com/SCMPHongKong/status/1195968903748317184 https://twitter.com/SCMPHongKong/status/1195968903748317184 [5] https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/hong-kong/article/3148042/hong-kongs-judiciary-remains-fiercely-independent-and https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/hong-kong/article/31480...
- FooBarWidget 5y agoThe best way to keep China from invading Taiwan is by upholding the One China Policy. With that policy in place, China has plenty of reasons to avoid a war. Unfortunately the US and many other parties are increasingly tearing this policy down, not seldomly without fully understanding why that policy was invented in the first place.
- fomine3 5y agoDo you see what's happened/happening in Hong Kong?
- FooBarWidget 5y agoYes and you should read the book "The Other Side of the Story: A Secret War in Hong Kong" by Nury Vittachi to learn what the mainstream media wasn't telling you about the whole Hong Kong situation. My Hong Kong friend who is pro China lives in an appartment complex where lots of yellow vests also live, and prior to the NSL every day he feared for his life, fearing that his neighbors would find out that he's pro-China and then do something to him. So much for the western coverage of the yellow vests being "pro-democracy, pro-rule of law, pro-free speech".
- Siira 5y agoAnd yet your hypothetical friend is fine, but China has seized land again.
- FooBarWidget 5y ago...seized land that belonged to them in the first place? It's the British that seized Hong Kong because the Qing refused to import opium.
- justinzollars 5y agoagree
- clove 5y ago