7 ms·

Maximum death rate for all age groups with Moderna, which at least according to these plots provides the lowest death rate, is at 0.8/100_000 in August 2021 for

by HMH 5y ago

Maximum death rate for all age groups with Moderna, which at least according to these plots provides the lowest death rate, is at 0.8/100_000 in August 2021 for all age groups. Maximum death rate for the unvaccinated of age 12-17 is at 0.17/100_000, for age 18-29 it is 0.76/100_000, also in August 2021. So even unvaccinated younger people (age < 30) are better off than the average vaccinated Joe. The thing is, so far I have pretty much never heard of this in my countries media, at least to me it sounds like "vaccinate absolutely everyone or we are all doomed", which according to this data is not the case.

k8sToGo 5y ago
Except that you are also more easily spreading the virus if you are not vaccinated.
elif 5y ago
That perspective is only accurate egocentrically. If you look at population-level epidemiology you will find vaccines inhibit viral spread.
- the-dude 5y ago
  NL is at ~85% vaccinated 12 yrs up. Infections are through the roof.
- johndevor 5y ago
  > you will find vaccines inhibit viral spread Is this true? Countries like Singapore and Israel are seeing huge spikes in cases despite having some of the highest vax rates. My suspicion is that vaccines have the downside of suppressing symptoms, thus making the vaxxed more likely to spread covid without knowing it.
  - scythe 5y ago
    See e.g.: https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/how-vaccines-reduce-transmission https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/how-vaccines-... Country-level anecdata is basically useless without a multi-factor analysis due to huge differences in restrictions and self-directed prevention by the public.
    - throwaway332211 5y ago
      He's saying that data showing an entire vaccinated country that's spreading covid faster than anywhere else is useless because it doesn't align with his politically motivated opinion. Another term for this is "cognitive dissonance", or "burying your head in the fucking sand". https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8481107/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8481107/ https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.31.21261387v4 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.31.21261387v... https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.12.21265796v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.12.21265796v... https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)02243-1 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)02243-1 https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/new-study-from-germany-confirms-higher https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/new-study-from-germany-co... https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/circ.144.suppl_1.10712 https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/circ.144.suppl_1.107...
  - golemiprague 5y ago
    I find it very hard to derive any meaning from the data because there are so many other factors and many times we can't put our hand on the raw data. Specifically regrading Singapore or Israel, two very small and congested countries. Israel also have a very porous border with the west bank where many people are not vaccinated and the idea of personal space is very different in comparison to the US. It is also have two distinct communities, the Arabs and the Orthodox Jews, together are about 30% of the population, with huge families and certain cultural norms which can affect behaviours. I don't know if those factors are relevant or not but they certainly exist and almost every country has some varying factors like that.
  - spurgu 5y ago
    Or Gibraltar which is 100% vaccinated.
- nradov 5y ago
  Sterilizing vaccines inhibit spread. The SARS-CoV-2 vaccines aren't sterilizing to any significant extent. Vaccinated individuals might be contagious for a slightly shorter period but in the long run that doesn't matter because the virus is now endemic and everyone will be exposed eventually. Fortunately the vaccines are still fairly effective at preventing deaths. https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immunity-not-possible-astrazeneca-developer-2021-8?r=US&IR=T https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immu...
jrd259 5y ago
If you are under 30, it appears your risk of death is low regardless of your status, but you will not forever be under 30, and perhaps you know some over-30 for whom the difference in death rate is important? Even if there's no one you care about who is over 30, to the extent that vaccination also reduces your risk of infecting others, it is polite to your society to be vaccinated. Perhaps you get no great benefit, but others do.
- ifyoubuildit 5y ago
  Presumably the under 30s will get covid within a few years, and then they will be in the pool of people with significant immunity.
  - SketchySeaBeast 5y ago
    Or they could vaccinate and have significant immunity nearly immediately without COVID.
    - ifyoubuildit 5y ago
      Yes, one of those two things will happen. The point is that the under 30s aren't likely to make it to a different age bracket where they are more significantly at risk without first achieving immunity in one of those ways.
- enchiridion 5y ago
  Does anyone have good stats to share on how vaccination impacts transmission? I’m curious.
  - zwieback 5y ago
    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00648-4/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3... Once a vaccinated person has a breakthrough infection they spread similarly but of course the chance to contract it is lower and the time to "virus clearance" is faster.
eqvinox 5y ago
You're forgetting the vaccine is also very efficient in preventing hospitalization. By a factor of ≈11 (average, ages 12-17 & 18-59) in the RKI (Germany) data[¹]. So even if you're aged 12 to 29, if you don't get vaccinated you're gambling at taking away someone else's hospital bed. Which will doom the rest of us. So, can everyone please get fricken vaccinated ffs? [¹] https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Daten/Inzidenz_Impfstatus.html https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus...
- HMH 5y ago
  > So even if you're aged 12 to 29, if you don't get vaccinated you're gambling at taking away someone else's hospital bed. Which will doom the rest of us. According to [1] at no point in time since March this year (when they started recording this data) have there been more than 100 hospitalizations in the age group 0-30 in Germany a country with 80+ million inhabitants. If this means doom to all of us I don't know anymore. [1]: https://www.intensivregister.de/#/aktuelle-lage/altersstruktur https://www.intensivregister.de/#/aktuelle-lage/altersstrukt...
  - eqvinox 5y ago
    That's a valid argument, I wasn't aware absolute hospitalization numbers <30 were this low. … which just leaves the other arguments to get vaccinated. Namely, lesser chance of long-term symptoms and lesser chance of getting infected (last I checked, outbound transmission doesn't seem to be reduced much, but inbound is, so it still serves to slow overall spread.)
    - unanswered 5y ago
      So in other words all of the non-debunked reasons for <30 to get vaccinated are all about individual health, and have no impact on anyone else's health.
    - atomicUpdate 5y ago
      > That's a valid argument, I wasn't aware absolute hospitalization numbers <30 were this low. And yet you were more than willing to make the baseless claim in the first place, which is one of the biggest issues with all of this in the first place. The media is doing its best to make covid seem scary as it can and is helped along by misinformation like this, fueling overall distrust.
mbesto 5y ago
> at least to me it sounds like "vaccinate absolutely everyone or we are all doomed", which according to this data is not the case. Sending mass communication about health with a list of "ifs ands or buts" is incredibly challenging especially for a pandemic level response, so if the communication is simply "get the vaccine" then you're going to get a higher uptick. I understand your nitpick, but also understand the general population doesn't fully grok this stuff. EDIT: Lemme also add - the data we're viewing is retrospective. We wouldn't know the effect until now, so of course the message has been "Get the vaccine"
bellyfullofbac 5y ago
That's a curious interpretation of the graphs... in all age groups in the US, the unvaxed line is higher than the vaxed graph (except for 1 data point for ages 12-17). If you're unvaxed and using "So even unvaccinated younger people (age < 30) are better off than the average vaccinated Joe." as a justification, it's a bit like saying "I know being unvaxed I have worse survival odds than a fully vaxed 65 year old, but I prefer that!" And please just compare data from close time periods, if we can pick different times for our rates, then I would pick October 2016, the chances of dying from Covid-19 at that time was absolute 0, even for the unvaxed!
bigodbiel 5y ago
I mean it was never the case, since the beginning we all knew it was 95% of deaths among the 50+. Then the goalposts (sorry for this language but there isn’t any other) shifted to continued transmission and viral mutation, until breakthrough became normalized. Now it’s filling up ICUs and healthcare collapse because of the unvaccinated. It’s all really sad when the CDC itself needs to cherrypick data until it can proudly say that “vaccines are 5x better than natural immunity” as if it was a competition: man versus nature (never mind the dozens of studies proving otherwise)
fulafel 5y ago
> So even unvaccinated younger people (age < 30) are better off than the average vaccinated Joe Of course you can only say this only for a big 18-29 age group viewed as an aggregate (regarding mortality), but can't say that generally of members the group. Eg according to https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2021-06/05-COVID-Wallace-508.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-... the deaths in 25-29 age group are dramatically more common than among 18-24 year olds, and there are other individual traits that are big factors in death risk. So it's safe to say that lots of <30 year olds have multi-% death risks, not to mention lifelong or long lasting harm from the additional near death cases. (But of course the most important thing is to reduce infections between people to keep riskier groups alive, so even without personal death risk it would be incredibly immoral to not get vaxed)

by HMH 5y ago

k8sToGo 5y ago

Except that you are also more easily spreading the virus if you are not vaccinated.

elif 5y ago

That perspective is only accurate egocentrically. If you look at population-level epidemiology you will find vaccines inhibit viral spread.

the-dude 5y ago
NL is at ~85% vaccinated 12 yrs up. Infections are through the roof.
johndevor 5y ago
> you will find vaccines inhibit viral spread Is this true? Countries like Singapore and Israel are seeing huge spikes in cases despite having some of the highest vax rates. My suspicion is that vaccines have the downside of suppressing symptoms, thus making the vaxxed more likely to spread covid without knowing it.
- scythe 5y ago
  See e.g.: https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/how-vaccines-reduce-transmission https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/how-vaccines-... Country-level anecdata is basically useless without a multi-factor analysis due to huge differences in restrictions and self-directed prevention by the public.
  - throwaway332211 5y ago
    He's saying that data showing an entire vaccinated country that's spreading covid faster than anywhere else is useless because it doesn't align with his politically motivated opinion. Another term for this is "cognitive dissonance", or "burying your head in the fucking sand". https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8481107/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8481107/ https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.31.21261387v4 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.31.21261387v... https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.12.21265796v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.12.21265796v... https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)02243-1 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)02243-1 https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/new-study-from-germany-confirms-higher https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/new-study-from-germany-co... https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/circ.144.suppl_1.10712 https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/circ.144.suppl_1.107...
- golemiprague 5y ago
  I find it very hard to derive any meaning from the data because there are so many other factors and many times we can't put our hand on the raw data. Specifically regrading Singapore or Israel, two very small and congested countries. Israel also have a very porous border with the west bank where many people are not vaccinated and the idea of personal space is very different in comparison to the US. It is also have two distinct communities, the Arabs and the Orthodox Jews, together are about 30% of the population, with huge families and certain cultural norms which can affect behaviours. I don't know if those factors are relevant or not but they certainly exist and almost every country has some varying factors like that.
- spurgu 5y ago
  Or Gibraltar which is 100% vaccinated.
nradov 5y ago
Sterilizing vaccines inhibit spread. The SARS-CoV-2 vaccines aren't sterilizing to any significant extent. Vaccinated individuals might be contagious for a slightly shorter period but in the long run that doesn't matter because the virus is now endemic and everyone will be exposed eventually. Fortunately the vaccines are still fairly effective at preventing deaths. https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immunity-not-possible-astrazeneca-developer-2021-8?r=US&IR=T https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immu...

jrd259 5y ago

If you are under 30, it appears your risk of death is low regardless of your status, but you will not forever be under 30, and perhaps you know some over-30 for whom the difference in death rate is important? Even if there's no one you care about who is over 30, to the extent that vaccination also reduces your risk of infecting others, it is polite to your society to be vaccinated. Perhaps you get no great benefit, but others do.

ifyoubuildit 5y ago
Presumably the under 30s will get covid within a few years, and then they will be in the pool of people with significant immunity.
- SketchySeaBeast 5y ago
  Or they could vaccinate and have significant immunity nearly immediately without COVID.
  - ifyoubuildit 5y ago
    Yes, one of those two things will happen. The point is that the under 30s aren't likely to make it to a different age bracket where they are more significantly at risk without first achieving immunity in one of those ways.
enchiridion 5y ago
Does anyone have good stats to share on how vaccination impacts transmission? I’m curious.
- zwieback 5y ago
  https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00648-4/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3... Once a vaccinated person has a breakthrough infection they spread similarly but of course the chance to contract it is lower and the time to "virus clearance" is faster.

eqvinox 5y ago

You're forgetting the vaccine is also very efficient in preventing hospitalization. By a factor of ≈11 (average, ages 12-17 & 18-59) in the RKI (Germany) data[¹]. So even if you're aged 12 to 29, if you don't get vaccinated you're gambling at taking away someone else's hospital bed. Which will doom the rest of us. So, can everyone please get fricken vaccinated ffs? [¹] https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Daten/Inzidenz_Impfstatus.html https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus...

HMH 5y ago
> So even if you're aged 12 to 29, if you don't get vaccinated you're gambling at taking away someone else's hospital bed. Which will doom the rest of us. According to [1] at no point in time since March this year (when they started recording this data) have there been more than 100 hospitalizations in the age group 0-30 in Germany a country with 80+ million inhabitants. If this means doom to all of us I don't know anymore. [1]: https://www.intensivregister.de/#/aktuelle-lage/altersstruktur https://www.intensivregister.de/#/aktuelle-lage/altersstrukt...
- eqvinox 5y ago
  That's a valid argument, I wasn't aware absolute hospitalization numbers <30 were this low. … which just leaves the other arguments to get vaccinated. Namely, lesser chance of long-term symptoms and lesser chance of getting infected (last I checked, outbound transmission doesn't seem to be reduced much, but inbound is, so it still serves to slow overall spread.)
  - unanswered 5y ago
    So in other words all of the non-debunked reasons for <30 to get vaccinated are all about individual health, and have no impact on anyone else's health.
  - atomicUpdate 5y ago
    > That's a valid argument, I wasn't aware absolute hospitalization numbers <30 were this low. And yet you were more than willing to make the baseless claim in the first place, which is one of the biggest issues with all of this in the first place. The media is doing its best to make covid seem scary as it can and is helped along by misinformation like this, fueling overall distrust.

mbesto 5y ago

> at least to me it sounds like "vaccinate absolutely everyone or we are all doomed", which according to this data is not the case. Sending mass communication about health with a list of "ifs ands or buts" is incredibly challenging especially for a pandemic level response, so if the communication is simply "get the vaccine" then you're going to get a higher uptick. I understand your nitpick, but also understand the general population doesn't fully grok this stuff. EDIT: Lemme also add - the data we're viewing is retrospective. We wouldn't know the effect until now, so of course the message has been "Get the vaccine"

bellyfullofbac 5y ago

That's a curious interpretation of the graphs... in all age groups in the US, the unvaxed line is higher than the vaxed graph (except for 1 data point for ages 12-17). If you're unvaxed and using "So even unvaccinated younger people (age < 30) are better off than the average vaccinated Joe." as a justification, it's a bit like saying "I know being unvaxed I have worse survival odds than a fully vaxed 65 year old, but I prefer that!" And please just compare data from close time periods, if we can pick different times for our rates, then I would pick October 2016, the chances of dying from Covid-19 at that time was absolute 0, even for the unvaxed!

bigodbiel 5y ago

I mean it was never the case, since the beginning we all knew it was 95% of deaths among the 50+. Then the goalposts (sorry for this language but there isn’t any other) shifted to continued transmission and viral mutation, until breakthrough became normalized. Now it’s filling up ICUs and healthcare collapse because of the unvaccinated. It’s all really sad when the CDC itself needs to cherrypick data until it can proudly say that “vaccines are 5x better than natural immunity” as if it was a competition: man versus nature (never mind the dozens of studies proving otherwise)

fulafel 5y ago

> So even unvaccinated younger people (age < 30) are better off than the average vaccinated Joe Of course you can only say this only for a big 18-29 age group viewed as an aggregate (regarding mortality), but can't say that generally of members the group. Eg according to https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2021-06/05-COVID-Wallace-508.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-... the deaths in 25-29 age group are dramatically more common than among 18-24 year olds, and there are other individual traits that are big factors in death risk. So it's safe to say that lots of <30 year olds have multi-% death risks, not to mention lifelong or long lasting harm from the additional near death cases. (But of course the most important thing is to reduce infections between people to keep riskier groups alive, so even without personal death risk it would be incredibly immoral to not get vaxed)