8 ms·

Your Russia roulette comparison is pretty disingenuous. Here are the latest survival rates by age: 0-19: 99.9973% 20-29: 99.986% 30-39: 99.969% 40-49: 99.9

Your Russia roulette comparison is pretty disingenuous. Here are the latest survival rates by age: 0-19: 99.9973% 20-29: 99.986% 30-39: 99.969% 40-49: 99.918% 50-59: 99.73% 60-69: 99.41% 70+: 97.6% (non institutionalized, not in a care home) 70+: 94.5% (all) Source: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.08.21260210v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.08.21260210v...

peter422 5y ago
And what are the hospitalization rates? Occupying beds and Heath care providers that could be treating conditions that are not preventable? What about long covid rates? It isn’t death or you’re fine.
- willcipriano 5y ago
  Since it appears you are advocating for policy based on those numbers, why don't you provide them?
- nradov 5y ago
  You can find hospitalization rates by age group here. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...
bloopernova 5y ago
What percentage of survivors get Long Covid symptoms? Is that information available broken down by age, like the IFR you're quoting?
- mrfusion 5y ago
  I’ve never been able to find similar numbers. Let me know if you can. but I’d be curious to get your take on this French study. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2785832 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullar... It seems like good news for people worried about long Covid.
KarlKemp 5y ago
So it may be stupid, but not quite as stupid as actual Russian roulette? I don’t know if that makes ,ich of a difference. Besides, they said this revolver has 50 chambers, which means 2 %, roughly in range. You’d also want to factor in that, from all I’ve read, people dying of COVID seem to spend a lot of their last days and hours of consciousness wishing they could go with the revolver instead.
- gus_massa 5y ago
  > I’ve read, people dying of COVID seem to spend a lot of their last days and hours of consciousness wishing they could go with the revolver instead. Do you have a good source from that? Preferably an article in a serious newspaper that verified the sources. I really expect people to be asking for a painkiller and a miracle cure.
- nradov 5y ago
  The overall infection fatality rate is 0.6%, not 2%. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...
HarryHirsch 5y ago
By that metric we shouldn't worry about measles, either. Survival rate is 99.9 %, the change of getting encephalitis is only 1 in 10000. But somehow we do. And why is everyone over 50 running out to get the shingles vaccine? It's not like shingles kill you.
- josephcsible 5y ago
  The difference between COVID and measles is that the measles vaccine is actually effective (i.e., people vaccinated against measles never need to worry about it or take precautions against it in everyday life again), and it's also been around long enough to be confident there's no long-term side effects.
  - ufo 5y ago
    The measles vaccine is not perfect either. The only reason we don't have to worry abour measles is because enough people have been vaccinated to achieve herd immunity and bring down the transmission to zero. However, if vaccination rates drop even a little bit then outbreaks can pop up again because measles is extremely contagious.
    - josephcsible 5y ago
      > However, if vaccination rates drop even a little bit then outbreaks can pop up again because measles is extremely transmissable. But in cases when that's happened, how many people caught "breakthrough" measles, as opposed to unvaccinated people catching measles?
      - gus_massa 5y ago
        Not exactly what you are asking, but close enough: From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Measles_vaccine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Measles_vaccine > This is often done at age 15 to 18 months. After one dose at the age of nine months 85% are immune, while a dose at twelve months results in 95% immunity. This graphic is interesting https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Measles_vaccine#/media/File:Measles_Canada_1924-2018.png https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Measles_vaccine#/media/File:Me... With one dose the case number is reduced a lot, but there are still some smaller peaks aver few years. After the second dose was made mandatory, the number of cases goes to almost zero. I'm not sure about Canada, but here in Argentina kids get two doses, and every 5-10 years there is a effort to give an additional dose to some groups with more risk (like small children).
bluecalm 5y ago
Couldn't find it at a glance, does the data included vaccinated people? If so it's not surprising mortality is lower than previously reported (because there are more vaccinated people than in the past).

peter422 5y ago

And what are the hospitalization rates? Occupying beds and Heath care providers that could be treating conditions that are not preventable? What about long covid rates? It isn’t death or you’re fine.

willcipriano 5y ago
Since it appears you are advocating for policy based on those numbers, why don't you provide them?
nradov 5y ago
You can find hospitalization rates by age group here. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...

bloopernova 5y ago

What percentage of survivors get Long Covid symptoms? Is that information available broken down by age, like the IFR you're quoting?

mrfusion 5y ago
I’ve never been able to find similar numbers. Let me know if you can. but I’d be curious to get your take on this French study. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2785832 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullar... It seems like good news for people worried about long Covid.

KarlKemp 5y ago

So it may be stupid, but not quite as stupid as actual Russian roulette? I don’t know if that makes ,ich of a difference. Besides, they said this revolver has 50 chambers, which means 2 %, roughly in range. You’d also want to factor in that, from all I’ve read, people dying of COVID seem to spend a lot of their last days and hours of consciousness wishing they could go with the revolver instead.

gus_massa 5y ago
> I’ve read, people dying of COVID seem to spend a lot of their last days and hours of consciousness wishing they could go with the revolver instead. Do you have a good source from that? Preferably an article in a serious newspaper that verified the sources. I really expect people to be asking for a painkiller and a miracle cure.
nradov 5y ago
The overall infection fatality rate is 0.6%, not 2%. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...

HarryHirsch 5y ago

By that metric we shouldn't worry about measles, either. Survival rate is 99.9 %, the change of getting encephalitis is only 1 in 10000. But somehow we do. And why is everyone over 50 running out to get the shingles vaccine? It's not like shingles kill you.

josephcsible 5y ago
The difference between COVID and measles is that the measles vaccine is actually effective (i.e., people vaccinated against measles never need to worry about it or take precautions against it in everyday life again), and it's also been around long enough to be confident there's no long-term side effects.
- ufo 5y ago
  The measles vaccine is not perfect either. The only reason we don't have to worry abour measles is because enough people have been vaccinated to achieve herd immunity and bring down the transmission to zero. However, if vaccination rates drop even a little bit then outbreaks can pop up again because measles is extremely contagious.
  - josephcsible 5y ago
    > However, if vaccination rates drop even a little bit then outbreaks can pop up again because measles is extremely transmissable. But in cases when that's happened, how many people caught "breakthrough" measles, as opposed to unvaccinated people catching measles?
    - gus_massa 5y ago
      Not exactly what you are asking, but close enough: From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Measles_vaccine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Measles_vaccine > This is often done at age 15 to 18 months. After one dose at the age of nine months 85% are immune, while a dose at twelve months results in 95% immunity. This graphic is interesting https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Measles_vaccine#/media/File:Measles_Canada_1924-2018.png https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Measles_vaccine#/media/File:Me... With one dose the case number is reduced a lot, but there are still some smaller peaks aver few years. After the second dose was made mandatory, the number of cases goes to almost zero. I'm not sure about Canada, but here in Argentina kids get two doses, and every 5-10 years there is a effort to give an additional dose to some groups with more risk (like small children).

bluecalm 5y ago

Couldn't find it at a glance, does the data included vaccinated people? If so it's not surprising mortality is lower than previously reported (because there are more vaccinated people than in the past).