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Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

• gr1zzlybe4r 5y ago
  Covid-19 will continue into Covid-22 (as in the same virus into 2022, not a new virus entirely). Return to office will tick up more than expected City -> Suburbs/Rural will revert back to pre-covid trend of Suburbs/Rural -> City
• nikivi 5y ago
  I hope/think more countries will start to compete for remote workers and add more favorable policies to have them move. Like Portugal. https://twitter.com/tomazstolfa/status/1454441367359430663 https://twitter.com/tomazstolfa/status/1454441367359430663
• devin 5y ago
  Title should be "Ask HN: What are your* 2022 predictions?"
• tamaharbor 5y ago
  NY Mets will be out of contention by early June.
  • unemphysbro 5y ago
    oh come on now, at least try :)
• Geee 5y ago
  The worst economic crisis that's ever been seen. Global turmoil and revolts. USA splits in multiple countries.
  • nicbou 5y ago
    Canada annexes Maine. Florida floats off. Amazon forms its own government.
• foobarbaz33 5y ago
  Housing price collapse in the USA. It will be the 2008 collapse all over again. Everyone is predicting further increases with the same gusto as someone living in 2006. And they may be right for a time. But the stilts these home prices are walking on are even taller and shakier than they were in 2006 when everyone was sure housing was up up up forever. There's bunch of foreclosures slated for 2022 that were put on hold due to covid. Something is going to pop, and it will pop hard.
• paulpauper 5y ago
  My heuristic is to extend pre-2022 trends outward: Higher stock market even though everyone keeps calling it a bubble More inflation, but not as much gain in the CPI as 2021 Strong GDP growth, same for corporate profits Big tech gets bigger; Facebook, Tesla , Amazon, Google Microsoft stock keep going up. No anti-trust action against big tech companies No bursting of 'higher ed bubble' despite Covid US dollar continues to be strong Bezos, Musk remain richest men alive Biden wealth tax fails Fed raises rates maybe twice; bond market and stock market unperturbed Higher real estate prices in spite of insistence of it being a bubble More political division and unrest online, people are angrier than ever at each other online Covid never goes away although daily case counts will remain below 2021 highs
  • onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago
    > No bursting of 'higher ed bubble' despite Covid Do you mean students will keep taking on debt to go to school? Or tuition prices will keep going up? Or both?
    • paulpauper 5y ago
      both
• uejfiweun 5y ago
  - COVID will continue to be a thing. Some new variant will come along and force everyone to lock down again. - The fed will have no choice but to keep interest rates low. This means we will have another year of rapidly rising asset prices. - Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s. - Crypto will undergo a major crash in 2022. It follows predictable, cyclical patterns, and we are nearing the end of the classic boom/bust cycle. It is unclear whether this will cause the Tether situation to blow up. - Mainly due to supply issues, we won't get a taste of any AR/VR metaverse type stuff next year. There will be a lot of hype-laden news articles about it, but nobody will actually live this future yet. - Nothing will happen in China with Evergrande or any of these other companies. Nor will China invade Taiwan (yet). - The "lie-flat" movement massively picks up. People don't realize how widespread this sentiment is in Gen Z, which doesn't need excessive consumerism to be happy, all they need is a computer. It is unclear what effects this will have on the economy.
  • JasonCannon 5y ago
    >- Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s. Due to this, GOP is probably going to retake the house largely because people won't realize that the inflation has little to do with Democrats policies but is entirely because of COVID fucking everything.
    • metalliqaz 5y ago
      ... which facilitates and end of free and fair elections in the US
      • krapp 5y ago
        Elections in the US have never been entirely free or fair.
        • 5y ago
• h2odragon 5y ago
  Large, squid like aliens will show up and announce they have been grooming humanity for the last 4,000 or so years to manufacture and repair microelectronics for them.
  • poooogles 5y ago
    If I finally get an RTX3080 I might be OK with that outcome.
    • tpmx 5y ago
      The squids are the ones taking all of them, duh.
  • lordnacho 5y ago
    Explains the shortage as well as Apple letting people fix their own stuff.
  • AstroDogCatcher 5y ago
    Sad to say this sounds nowhere near as bad as the scenarios at the low end of my estimation error bars for how next year could go.
  • TrueGeek 5y ago
    Do they let us work remote?
    • h2odragon 5y ago
      So far. Transplanting things to a different biosphere is just so.. icky.
    • bshipp 5y ago
      Galactically-feared aliens arrive on Earth and come up with a diabolical plan to force us to work 4 hours a day, three days a week with full medical, dental, and prescription coverage along with 60 days of vacation per year. The rest of the galaxy scratches their...whatevers...wondering why the humans throw down their tools and rush to work for the invaders.
• inglor_cz 5y ago
  Countries will look for viable Small Modular Reactor designs that aren't too expensive. If they succeed, it will kickstart a huge nuclear renaissance and whoever can supply the finished reactors fast will make a lot of money on it. If not, the entire technology will probably be dead (in the civilian sector) forever. Some of the longevity trials will show significant reduction of epigenetic age in humans. I am almost sure that TRIIM-X will. That is pretty close to the first flight of the Wright brothers, only in the anti-aging field. During the next 10 or so years, all the debt-fueled spending is going to bite us back hard. We might have a new round of Yellow Vests in Europe if consumer prices of electricity and fuels go up again. If such protests really happen, governments will crack down on social networks heavy-handedly. The digital giants will open up their app stores voluntarily to escape antitrust prosecution.
  • paulpauper 5y ago
    >During the next 10 or so years, all the debt-fueled spending is going to bite us back hard. that's like saying it will happen eventually, which is not that helpful or useful of a prediction
    • inglor_cz 5y ago
      Timing the market is a hopeless task. We do not know yet if our treasuries will make an attempt to wean themselves off cheap credit or not. I am afraid they won't, but even then the curve may vary a lot. I know this isn't a very good prediction. The only thing that bothers me is that the contemporary ruling class seems to operate as if the borrowing could go on forever.
      • pjc50 5y ago
        What precisely is going to stop it? Where else is the safety-seeking money going to go? Even the periodic threat of a gratuitous default doesn't rattle US bond prices.
        • inglor_cz 5y ago
• Fluid_Mechanics 5y ago
  Killer Bees Edit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7ok5AV7ZrM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7ok5AV7ZrM
• chirau 5y ago
  Bayern will win the UCL
• throwaway4good 5y ago
  The companies that are double or triple ordering this year, in fear of suppliers not delivering, are going to get a lot of stuff in 2022. In other words, the shortages and empty shells will be followed by fire sales and stories of companies destroying their inventories.
• l33tbro 5y ago
  I think the fake 'inflation' we are seeing (which is really supply-side shock) will vanish, and reveal that we are in a huge deflationary environment. Remote work is here to stay. Rents go up as over-leveraged landlords will have to pay back rising interest rates (QE is tapering already now). Climate issues, real and not so real, will be used to achieve the control agenda of established power in the same way the pandemic was. The culture wars will continue humming away in the foreground, distracting us from our declining quality of life and the transfer of wealth from the lower and middle classes taking place before our eyes. Overall, it will get worse as our current predicament perhaps needs to.
  • bshipp 5y ago
    I'd argue that rents will fall as large volumes of "investment" housing starts to hit the market. The end of a decade (almost 2, actually) of quantitative easing and and resulting increase in interest rates is the death knell for asset value-derived investment. This includes any stock where the value is not correlated with revenue.
    • runnerup 5y ago
      > large volumes of "investment" housing starts to hit the market Are people currently not living in this housing? How much un-lived in property is there? I don't see much, if any, in Houston. But house purchase prices here still doubled in the past few years.
    • l33tbro 5y ago
      I purposely avoided the asset bubble collapse because it's all so volatile and overhwelming right now. But you're right - and it would quite likley crater rents.
    • randomopining 5y ago
      Don't most just get fixed rate mortgages?
  • AnimalMuppet 5y ago
    > I think the fake 'inflation' we are seeing (which is really supply-side shock) will vanish, and reveal that we are in a huge deflationary environment. > Rents go up as over-leveraged landlords will have to pay back rising interest rates (QE is tapering already now). I think these two contradict each other. Inflation is fake, but interest rates rise? > Climate issues, real and not so real, will be used to achieve the control agenda of established power in the same way the pandemic was. Yup.
• mg 5y ago
  I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla gets their self driving software to a human level within the next 5 years. And that this will be a huge wake-up call for mankind. To think about the future in the face of AI. I often watch videos of people who drive with FSD for the first time. Those are the most intense reactions to a product I can remember. If one day we wake up and see self driving cars all around us, we will start thinking about how the world will look like when everything is automated. This will be a huge challenge and adventure.
  • phpnode 5y ago
    I would actually expect the opposite - that FSD gets banned in the short term because mistakes are a. inevitable and b. super, super dangerous. I think self driving cars only become safe when every vehicle is capable of self driving, and infrastructure is adapted accordingly. happy to be proven wrong though!
  • throwaway4good 5y ago
    I expect Tesla to give up on driving by cameras, and simplier solutions requiring less processing power, but a more bespoke combination of hires maps, cameras, lidars, and other sensors, to acheive practical FSD before Telsa.
  • deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  • jstx1 5y ago
    You could have made the same prediction for the past 6-7 years and you would have been wrong every time. Sure, it might happen some day but I don't know why 2022 should be different from 2021.
    • mg 5y ago
      I have worked on some hard engineering problems in my life, where one could not have been sure if it is possible to find a solution. In my experience, when you get to a "From here on it is just more of the same" situation, that is a strong indicator that a solution will be found in the near future. And that is the feeling I get when I watch FSD videos these days. 5 years ago, people were celebrating lane changes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7jNHFwZ3Ec https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7jNHFwZ3Ec Nowadays, FSD drives through all kinds of weird scenarios: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LISLFHCPWrw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LISLFHCPWrw And people complain about specific situations FSD can not handle: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OT2H42k7Z1g https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OT2H42k7Z1g I'm pretty sure someone at Tesla sees this and thinks "Hmm.. we can solve this in a similar way we solved lane changes".
• LeoPanthera 5y ago
  * Queen Elizabeth II will die, prompting complaints about how much coverage the BBC will give the event. * A large earthquake (>6) in the SF Bay Area. * COVID cases will reduce but not enough to rescind mask-wearing rules. * A large "stablecoin" will crash but the crypto market will (unfortunately, probably) recover reasonably quickly. * The NFT craze will not persist. * In the US, the GOP will make significant political gains primarily through gerrymandering.
  • carnitine 5y ago
    Obviously some people will complain to the BBC, but I really don’t think that will be much of a thing. It will be an undeniably monumental event.
    • ksaj 5y ago
      It will definitely be big news when it happens. Her death doesn't occur in a void - the throne will have someone else's cheeks assigned to it. It will be impossible to not talk about the future of the monarchy when she dies, next year or in 2028. It would be BBC's duty to report extensively on it.
  • jeffreyrogers 5y ago
    > COVID cases will reduce but not enough to rescind mask-wearing rules. In a lot of the US there aren't really mask requirements anymore outside of maybe hospitals. I moved to Seattle from Utah recently and the change in attitudes is pretty astonishing.
    • AnimalMuppet 5y ago
      > I moved to Seattle from Utah recently and the change in attitudes is pretty astonishing. Could you be more specific here? What's the difference in attitudes between Seattle and Utah?
      • jeffreyrogers 5y ago
• grahamlee 5y ago
  Windows 11 and WSL2 will finally deliver the year of Linux on the desktop.
• tfang17 5y ago
  China will invade Taiwain.
  • dathinab 5y ago
    Hopefully not, but if there is some major "internal" US trouble (like a big economic crash) they probably will.
• CyanLite4 5y ago
  2022 starts the Roaring 20s. Covid takes a backseat as new therapeutics become available. Remote work trend allows mass migration out of the Western states and into more rural areas. Prices and employment stabilize as the Fed tapers QE. TikTok launches new Metaverse product. Biden steps down to allow for Kamala to take over. Lebron James wins one final NBA championship and retires. Patriots return to win the Super Bowl and Alabama wins another College football championship.
  • trcarney 5y ago
    >Biden steps down to allow for Kamala to take over. I second this. Although I wonder if it will be Biden stepping down or the 25th Amendment being enacted. I think Kamala takes over after the mid-term elections. Her current poll numbers would necessitate them waiting at least until then.
• carnitine 5y ago
  Payment for order flow will be banned, to the detriment of retail investors.
  • omosubi 5y ago
    Why would it be banned? Doesn't wall street love order flow?
    • carnitine 5y ago
      Because members of congress and many retail investors believe it harms the interests of the small-scale investor.
• KhoomeiK 5y ago
  Sorta predictions, sorta hopes... GPT-4 or another huge language model like it will be released, and we will see diminishing returns continue to plateau. Graph-based approaches in NLP will continue to grow in significance, with KGs, ontologies, and semantic graphs seeing growing adoption for their interpretability. Model robustness in ML will probably remain a significant obstacle to productionization, holding back use-cases that need high reliability e.g. self-driving and front-facing chatbots. Reinforcement Learning may see increased research focus for applications in NLP and user interaction.
  • oezi 5y ago
    > GPT-4 or another huge language model like it will be released, and we will see diminishing returns continue to plateau. It was my understanding that GPT-3 showed pretty well that the returns are not dimishing but rather surprisingly still scaling along with data rather nicely.
    • KhoomeiK 5y ago
      Figure 3.8 in the GPT-3 paper (SuperGLUE Performance) pretty clearly shows a plateau in performance, with the increase in performance from 13B to 175B parameters (13.5x params, +6 score) not being significantly different from the increase between 6.7B to 13B (1.9x params, +4 score).
• reaperducer 5y ago
  - Companies that are buying up large swaths of real estate figure out that "money pit" is a real thing, and owning a thousand houses isn't a good way to make hard cash. They start merging with one another to stave off a crash. - A new social media company starts to gain traction. Because that's what happens every few years. - People start unloading their streaming subscriptions when they realize that for many people, they cost more than cable or satellite. But rather than go back to the other delivery methods, they just consume less video. Streaming companies start to cannibalize one another, and set up for merging. - My wife will continue to complain about her neck pain, but refuse to stop scrolling through Instagram hunched over on the toilet. She will continue to try to hide this from me.
  • ksaj 5y ago
    My old landlord was a couple who owned 11 houses, 10 of which they rented out. Over the couple of years we lived there, we discovered they weren't even all that rich... but they sure will be. They own the house they live in, and rent out their other houses. It started with them renting out a house to help pay their mortgage, and then they found ways to accumulate mortgages for more homes. Clever but I suspect they were stressed out pretty big time, too. If any one of them failed, it would collapse in full domino style. But if it works (and it surely will), they retire fully owning 11 properties in their name, for whatever they might want to do with them.
    • m_ke 5y ago
      My landlord also owns 11 multi family buildings. He bought them in the early 2000s, in a rapidly gentrifying neighborhood on the Brooklyn waterfront, for 100-200k each. Each building is now worth 2-5million and he charges 2,800-4,000 per unit (in 6-8 unit buildings) for rent. He told me that he’ll never sell and will keep using leverage to buy up more buildings. My grandmother’a brother bough 2 buildings in the same neighborhood in the early 90s for even less and had them fully paid off by 2000. Each one was making him 20k a month before he sold them for >3 million to developers who will come in and jack up rents by 50-100% on the old people that have been living there the past 15-20 years.
• AstroDogCatcher 5y ago
  In the UK: Covid will dimish in importance enough for people to disentangle the negative consequences of Brexit, leading to widespread use of the Pikachu shocked face meme. Scottish independence will take a step forward, with a new referendum scheduled for 2023. At least one company (probably Apple) will exceed $4T market cap, current >$1T companies will all pass at least one more trillion milestone. No new companies will break $1T besides those already there. Tax rules will come into effect across Europe rendering crypto/NFTs unattractive. The market will crash then rebound, but coin values will end up roughly where they are right now. Russian troops will be invited into Belarus to formally support defence efforts, increasing tension with the EU. The Nord Stream 2 pipeline will become operational, but only after rocketing gas prices stir minor unrest in western Europe. Chinese naval aggression will lead to a war of words with Japan but no direct conflict, but at least one weaker neighbour will lose fishermen or naval personnel in a small skirmish. The international community will continue to do nothing. Taiwanese airspace will be entered by Chinese jets at least once a month, but no shots will be fired. Genome sequencing will become an "optional" way to "reduce" health insurance premiums in the US. Sequencing of the wider population in Europe will be explored in more detail than previously, but not progress due to privacy debates.
  • nodejs_rulez_1 5y ago
    > In the UK: Covid will dimish in importance enough for people to disentangle the negative consequences of Brexit, leading to widespread use of the Pikachu shocked face meme. Scottish independence will take a step forward, with a new referendum scheduled for 2023. Very interesting, transfer of such a financial liability as Scotland from UK to EU may even offset at least some of the Brexit damage! Followed by more Pikachu faces, but under different flags.
    • tonyedgecombe 5y ago
      Yes, in many ways Brexit makes Scottish independence more difficult. Previously trade and people would have been able to flow across the border but that isn't a given now.
• nolawi89 5y ago
  It will be exactly the same as 2021; covid cycles, market will be ok, crypto will fluctuate, inflation will rise slowly, interest rate will stay the same. Earth will continue to suffer with global warming. People are displaced with fires, floods and sea levels. Civil unrest in many poor countries as autocrats seize more power. And finally Trump will still think he can convince us he won the election, it wont be on twitter
• joshcarr 5y ago
  They're gonna find intelligent life up there on the moon And The Canterbury Tales will shoot up to the top of the best-seller list And stay there for twenty-seven weeks And the Chicago Cubs will beat every team in the league And the Tampa Bay Bucs will make it all the way through January The stars are gonna spell out the answers to tomorrow's crosswords And the Phillips Corporation will admit that they've made an awful mistake And Bill Gates will single-handedly spearhead the Heaven 17 revival And the Chicago Cubs will beat every team in the league And the Tampa Bay Bucs will take it all the way to the top And I will love you again I will love you like I used to
• kaycebasques 5y ago
  I would love for this to become a regular thing on HN. And it would be even more wonderful if we had a standard template where we expressed our predictions in probabilities.
  • uptownfunk 5y ago
    and some type of score keeping for who gets things right over time.. to know who are the bellwethers
• throwaway4good 5y ago
  Huawei/HiSilicon will start producing highend chips again, fabbed outside the reach of US sanctions. Probably first the chips sitting inside their 5G base stations. This will mark a turning point in the US-China tech war.
  • outside1234 5y ago
    It doesn't matter where they are fab'ed. There is so much pressure worldwide to not add them to communications infrastructure by those that depend on US defense (basically everyone outside of Russia an China) that, if anything, I think this situation gets worse for these two.
    • throwaway4good 5y ago
      As it is now they (Huawei and ZTE) cannot fab the chips they have designed for their base stations, meaning the rollout of 5G in China is in danger.
• wantsanagent 5y ago
  - Unsupervised pre-training of vision transformers goes mainstream - An NFT platform reinvents DRM - Apple teases AR devices (Late 22, spring 23)
  • unemphysbro 5y ago
    got some paper recs for that first one?
  • mrfusion 5y ago
    What’s the first one?
• jmnicolas 5y ago
  I know nobody care but in 2022 I will lose my job because France will mandate vaccination at work.
  • pvaldes 5y ago
    This is a problem easy to avoid. Alternatively you could choose to lie in an hospital bed with a plastic tube raping you orally non-stop 24/7 for four entire months as somebody that I know, but I would humbly suggest you to take any necessary measure so this never, ever, happens to you (or to one of your beloved ones). Don't be another stupid victim.
    • jmnicolas 5y ago
      I got COVID in January. 2 or 3 days in bed, I was at work the 7th day. Sorry for your friend. FWIW I know more people with adverse effects from the vaccine than of COVID, see my other response below.
      • pvaldes 5y ago
        > I know more people with adverse effects from the vaccine than of COVID, Unlikely, as we know that more than 5 millions of people suffered the annoying adverse effect of being killed by Covid, but if you have meet an equivalent number of people suffering a worse fate because the vaccines: 1) Congratulations, your social life is legendary and you must be the ultimate animal party. I'm really jealous. 2) Please write a scientific article in Nature, Science or whatever. I guarantee you that you will appear in all the breaking news from coast to coast in the entire planet if you can report a much minor number of cases.
        • jmnicolas 5y ago
          It is simply the truth, I'm not trying to win any argument here. I don't know anybody that died of COVID, meanwhile a colleague of mine knows 6 persons that died of it. It's just random distribution I guess. When I say KNOW, I mean someone that I have met at least once. Not someone that I have heard of. I don't know anybody with long COVID either, nor even hospitalized for it. All the people I know that got COVID were very sick from 2 to 4 weeks then recovered on their own. Among all these cases I was the least affected, I was sick less than a week and was able to get back to work (I'm not remote) after 7 days. Here are the adverse effects I know from the vaccines, citing myself: > I know one man with thrombosis and another one with Guillain Barré syndrome. My sister lost conscientiousness after the second shot. One of my cousin has extraordinary abundant periods. A colleague told me that his running times were much lower than before, he feels always tired since he got vaccinated.
• quickthrower2 5y ago
  Bitcoin bull due to inflation worries and bitcoin lack of intrinsic value means the only metric is FOMO, so if it goes up it goes up more. To stabilise a high price long term you’d need additional countries adopting it, and they need to fix the climate impact. Eventually Bitcoin will be a lacklustre investment like gold. Essentially cash-like but deflationary at heart. That’s if it succeeds. Or it will implode to nothing!
  • outside1234 5y ago
    My prediction is that the FOMO thing will work the other way and there will be a stampede out of bitcoin in a 1930s style crash.
    • quickthrower2 5y ago
      Yes the FOMO does go both ways. Without a network problem it will still hold some value but could be less than 1% of current market traded price in that scenario but unlikely zero.
  • deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
• marginalia_nu 5y ago
  Social media-reality and outside-your-window reality will finally diverge so much people will begin to notice.
  • timdaub 5y ago
    hahaha nooo. They won't notice!
  • randomopining 5y ago
    They won't notice because the dopamine reinforcement of media-reality is too large. Media and marketing is just hacking the circuits of the brain that we all have.
• kaycebasques 5y ago
  On Good Judgment Open there is a question about where the Fed Funds Rate will be in January 2022. I have a blog post [1] tracking my forecast of this event. Currently I have the odds at: * 0% chance the rate will be lower * 98% chance the rate will be the same * 2% chance the rate will be higher [1] https://kayce.basqu.es/bets/january-2022-fed-funds-rate/ https://kayce.basqu.es/bets/january-2022-fed-funds-rate/
  • mrfusion 5y ago
    Jan 2023 would be more interesting
• krapp 5y ago
  previously (compiled by csomar here[0]): [0]2021: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25594068 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25594068 2020: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21802596 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21802596 2019: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18753859 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18753859 2018: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16007988 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16007988 2016: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10809767 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10809767 2015: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8822723 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8822723 2014: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6994370 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6994370 2012: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3395201 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3395201 2011: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1970023 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1970023 2010: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025681 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025681 And predictions for the decade: 2020s: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21941278 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21941278 2010s: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025681 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025681
  • duderific 5y ago
    Going back a few years, it seems like people were taking their predictions more seriously. Now, most commenters are just making silly joke predictions. I wonder what that says about our times. Maybe people feel less and less confident about their ability to predict the future.
    • mrfusion 5y ago
      Things don’t make as much sense as they used to.
  • ksaj 5y ago
    In the first comment for 2020: "We will have driverless cars but not mainstream yet. Trucking jobs in the US won't go away as Andrew Yang is predicting them to be." I'm guessing Andrew Yang wouldn't have expected an operational truck shortage like we have right now.
• svrourke 5y ago
  Kamala will take over the presidency when Biden's colonoscopy comes back with colon cancer. Graphics cards will return to msrp prices. Government action to fix container pileup issues (incentives for hiring more workers, penalties for containers in stacks for longer than x weeks) (it's my understanding this a manufactured crisis to increase profits) James Webb will observe proof of alien life nearby Donbas will become part of Russia North Korea will start modernizing and trying to rehab their image
  • meremortals 5y ago
    > James Webb will observe proof of alien life nearby Agree
• hereforphone 5y ago
  - Donald Knuth will die - Joe Biden will become unable to maintain office (due to age / health related issues) and his VP will become president; many will theorize this was the plan all along - People will settle down about COVID regardless of what happens. There will be more backlash as we continue to learn more about the vaccines (and require boosters at some currently undetermined interval) - $SPY will lose 100+ points but regain that. Prices of goods and services will continue to spiral out of control
  • 0des 5y ago
    > Donald Knuth will die You shut your whore mouth and say you're sorry right this instant.
    • hereforphone 5y ago
      Donald Knuth will die..... BUT his brain will live on in a jar in a Stanford subbasement
  • knbknb 5y ago
    DK inventing Math problems and witticisms until his very last minute
• onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago
  CPI & PPI will remain high. Despite that, central banks won't meaningfully tapper or raise rates (some have already started, and more will try, but soon they will revert to low/current rates). Inequality will continue to get worse. Despite that, wealth will not get taxed. The Great Resignation will not happen (even though we're told it already is/has happened).
• meremortals 5y ago
  There will be more slow "disclosure" of UFO/UAP life
• mattwilsonn888 5y ago
  Peace on Earth.
• deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
• chris_hhh 5y ago
  - Covid still a thing, but much greater geographic divergence of vaxed and non-vaxed areas, leading to political and economic turmoil in those areas "left behind" and most impacted (more fun from Trump counties). Folks find that WFH in rural areas isn't all that great when everyone's sick and your kids' school is always closed - Because of push-back on supply chain and other issues, Biden and Harris are massively unpopular for 2022, which causes a greater split among Dems (similar to Howard Dean in 2002, who broke with CW to become popular). Perhaps it's a young populist Dem who doesn't talk about "woke" stuff but squarely focuses on the unrest caused by bad cops, bad protestors (including on the right), and bad econ policy - It's been predicted since forever, but a major revolution about Jan 6 and Trump, which the press won't care about - Meta as the new 5G; whole lot of hype but too bulky to be useful - Unionizing begins to impact professional sector, as employers want employees back in the office as the labor market tightens - As disenchanted people are sick of online conspiracies, a reformist Social Contract-like movement takes hold
• lma21 5y ago
  - tensions will rise between EU, the US (along with the UK and Australia), and China leading to more supply chain issues. - crypto crash of 2022. Ethereum will switch to PoS, leading to a global wide sale of GPUs and miners are no longer a thing. - maybe the stock market will crash similarly to 2022.
• hereforphone 5y ago
  Hackernews comments will continue to devolve and become more Reddit-like on the whole. Someone will begin working on an alternative that will make them rich in 2024.
  • CodeGlitch 5y ago
    As long as memes are downvoted into oblivion, I can't see this happening.
    • ksaj 5y ago
      A lot of it still gets through. The last 6 months has brought about a lot of Reddit-style huck-huck-I'm-so-funny comments. I realize it waxes and wanes, but I share that fear that it's two steps forward, one step back, steadily gaining over time.
  • errantmind 5y ago
    It already exists. I'm keeping it to myself.
    • moneywoes 5y ago
      The lobster one?
  • jstx1 5y ago
    > alternative that will make them rich Given that HN doesn't make money, I doubt that any alternative would either.
    • hereforphone 5y ago
      It helps make money for its owners. It's not here for charity.
      • strikelaserclaw 5y ago
        yes by primarily acting as an advertising platform for ycombinator companies /thought leaders involved there as well, although we do get other awesome content here and the community is awesome, so i can say that i don't mind paying that "fee" to be able to enjoy this site.
• testplzignore 5y ago
  Prince Charles will die, followed shortly after by the Queen. King William will begin the process of ending the British monarchy. Chris Pratt will be in the highest-grossing English-language film. A novel virus worse than Covid will arise, and humanity will succeed in containing it, but at great cost. Tampa Bay will lose in the Super Bowl.
• webmaven 5y ago
  People will make a big deal about a date that is all zeros and twos. Eg. 02/02/2022 or 02/20/2022 or some other variation. Other people will make fun of weird Murrican date ordering and propose some other date. Arguments will be had about which datetime(s) should be considered palindromic given the different orderings, or some such nonsense.
  • ksaj 5y ago
    While silly, I think this absolutely will happen as you describe. It would be too hard for Twitter to resist. I don't even mean this pejoratively. 22/02/2022 will be a thing, and it will spark up the arguments in your prediction.
    • WaltPurvis 5y ago
      >22/02/2022 will be a thing For once there's a bit of stupidity Americans won't be involved in...
• shagmin 5y ago
  These are very loosely held convictions... - COVID will still be here but be thought of a little more like the flu. - There will be some devastating natural disasters that induce more people into taking climate change seriously. - AI will slowly cover more ground into people's lives. - Cryptocurrencies will continue to be overhyped. - US political tensions will continue to get worse. - China will have domestic growing pains in the next few years, maybe cut back on growth or stir up some more regional tensions. - Inflation will slowly give way to deflation and then the stock market is going to plateau or dip for some prolonged time. - Conservatives will win control of congress in 2022 and the following 2 years will be a lame duck session. - Trump or DeSantis is going to be the Republican presidential nominee for 2024. - 2024 will be a really bad election for both parties - Housing prices will continue to rise and not be affected by deflation and this will only get worse without significant and good government intervention. - A black swan event or two mini black swan events that drastically affects a lot of other predictions.
  • mrfusion 5y ago
    Why are you so big on deflation? I’m not seeing it.
• frontman1988 5y ago
  A physical in ear device which does real time translation of almost all major languages. A successful drone assassination of a world leader by terrorists. Massive explosion in international tourism at some point. Great leaps in biotechnology which has surprising implications. Increasing geopolitical tensions due to a flexing China and insecure America.
  • timdaub 5y ago
    loving that ear device
    • runnerup 5y ago
      Was it not google pixel buds? 4 years ago: https://support.google.com/googlepixelbuds/answer/7573100?hl=en https://support.google.com/googlepixelbuds/answer/7573100?hl...
• Tangokat 5y ago
  - Cryptocurrency will experience a large drawdown (50%+) due to NFTs not being worth anything. They will recover and end next year higher than now. BTC at 80k+. - Inflation is not transitory and the market will panic once the fed raises rates. They do not reverse their position like in 2018. - Covid continues to be a thing. Stupid people who refuse vaccines and medicine continue to die in record numbers. - China does not invade Taiwan and the China bubble does not pop. Everyone continues to be concerned. - The metaverse will continue to not be a thing. - A major breakthrough will happen in genomics, possibly related to aging. - Elon Musk will commit 6 billion to end world hunger. Mostly for the lulz - Significant legal troubles will arise for Facebook. Ultimately ending up splitting the company. This will make no difference to the social media issues.
• Qem 5y ago
  - Gross' proposal to remove the GIL from Python is accepted; - Speculative Inlining Smalltalk Architecture (Sista) for the Cog VM gets finished. Squeak and Pharo become much faster; - Existence of a massive 9th planet in the outer solar system is confirmed. Women go on demonstrations so the IAU gives it a female name. Name of African deity chosen, Yemọja, a major water spirit from the Yoruba religion; - China announces deadlines for a manned mission to the Moon; - Kamala Harris becomes first female US president, after Joe Biden passes away; - WHO announces discovery of Covid-19 Omega strain; - Whistleblower reveals NSA is collecting the bookmarks, passwords, ID numbers and passport numbers stolen by Microsoft Edge, as revealed in https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2021/11/is-microsoft-stealing-peoples-bookmarks.html https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2021/11/is-microsoft-...
  • scroot 5y ago
    Love the shout out for Sista.
• readflaggedcomm 5y ago
  Prices will rise, except lumber. Politicians will philander.
• AnimalMuppet 5y ago
  Rent going up. I think that one's pretty safe. Remote work will continue - maybe not as strong as during the lockdowns, but still much stronger than in 2019. Covid will continue to be a problem. By the end of 2022, we won't be at a "new normal" that is any different from where we currently are. There will still be a war about mask mandates and vaccine mandates and vaccine booster mandates. The 2022 elections will be very vicious, maybe even marked by violence, but in the end the Republicans will control at least one branch of Congress, most likely both. There will be violence associated with the 2024 election cycle. Oh, you wanted tech predictions? GPT-3 continues to impress, but has a much harder time turning into something useful. The "doesn't actually understand what it's saying" problem is too big to fix. Systems that actually do understand and then generate appropriate text are stronger, but cannot be created by GPT-3-like methods. We'll still mostly be on IPv4. Nothing dramatic changes in chips or fabs. Nothing dramatic changes in self-driving vehicles. There will be some cool stuff in medical, though. Between Alzheimer's and cancer, there will be at least one major advance.
• ellis0n 5y ago
  - Metaverses grows exponentially
• lvass 5y ago
  The first major Assassination Politics[0] event, based on decentralized prediction markets. [0] https://cryptome.org/ap.htm https://cryptome.org/ap.htm
  • ksaj 5y ago
    That's very interesting. That and dead pools never really had a practical way to operate. But now they do. Eventually it will happen, but I suspect that even before then, there will be some other added layer of plausible deniability come into existence. Incidentally, I'm not sure why you provided that particular link. It's not very fashionable to post links on HN without first checking if they even work. Cryptome hasn't been around for more than a decade. Your first part is spot on, though. Maybe not next year. But it will happen some time since all the technology is heading in a way that makes it quite possible.
    • lvass 5y ago
      The link works and they're alive. I'm curious on why it doesn't work for you.
      • ksaj 5y ago
        Well, that is weird then. I get: 403: Forbidden This error message is generated when the web server is trying to access a file that does not exist or has been configured incorrectly So I asked Google if they were still around, and one of the links says they no longer are. I think there was a time that they were actually taken offline, so that comment might very well be outdated. Maybe the error is a country thing. I'm in Canada. I used to be able to see their site no problem years ago.
• miki_tyler 5y ago
  2022 is the year when the internet is going to morph, from an almost 100% human generated content to a 100% machine generated content.
• 5F7bGnd6fWJ66xN 5y ago
  Inflation rate would be worse than expected, between 7-10% Fed will raise rates after mid-term only. Stock market will not crash until after Fed raises rates Supply chain bottlenecks will continue into 2023 FAANG will continue to grow bigger. Regulation will not be finalized. SaaS book will falter as FAANG make SaaS business models a feature. M&A of SaaS companies being absorbed into FAANGs will happen Cloud will move to the Edge. 5G enabled devices will gather traction. CRIPSR related news will make more headlines People will get bored of Metaverse related news Roblox will become bigger Infrastructure and Manufacturing in US will become cool again Internet will become more balkanized globally People will come back to offices. Remote workers will be disadvantaged COVID will die out before Q2 2022
  • oars 5y ago
    Everything in your post looked legitimate until you said COVID will die out in Q2 2022. Perhaps I am interpreting this sentence incorrectly and you meant the "economic effects of COVID will die out in Q2 2022"?
    • 5F7bGnd6fWJ66xN 5y ago
      Yes, herd immunity will happen through both natural infection or vaccine induced infection. People will adjust and come back to work, school and economic activities.
      • ksaj 5y ago
        This isn't really far fetched. If by then all the anti-vaxxers have caught it, then only the ones who suffer few or no symptoms will remain. The ones that were destined to have the worst effects of Covid will eventually either be vaccinated or dead.
      • schwartzworld 5y ago
        > herd immunity will happen through both natural infection or vaccine induced infection. People can catch covid more than once AND you can still transmit it when vaccinated. What leads you to believe herd immunity is even possible?
• tuatoru 5y ago
  Covid-19 is recognised as being endemic (here to stay). Inconvenient behavioural changes like mask wearinng taper off. Proof of recent vaccination will still be required in public gathering places, and laws will be passed making vaccination mandatory in many occupations. Covid vaccination will be combined with influenza vaccination. The realisation will become widespread that working age population in the developed world and East and South-east Asia is on a 20-year decline. (Government policy people already know this.) It won't change attitudes to immigration. (Wishful thinking) The realisation will sink in that decarbonising electricity (and part of road transport) is only one-third of the job, and doing the other two-thirds will cost approximately 20 times as much, not twice as much. Everyone resolves to do it anyway. The idea of global dimming (spraying sulphate aerosols into the stratosphere) to cool down the planet will go mainstream and be seriously planned. Deep learning will be acknowledged as a dead end, but there will be no promising replacement. Autonomous, low-speed road-going goods delivery vehicles will be trialed in an area being over 25% of the outer, suburban area of one major (top 150) North American city starting in or after '24. Russia will continue its "North Korea" geo-political strategy (do crazy things, including actions that might harm its own interests. This is straight out of the game theory textbooks).
  • gilmore606 5y ago
    > Deep learning will be acknowledged as a dead end I don't disagree, but as soon as next year? Why do you think so?
• tmaly 5y ago
  Focus on Covid will pivot to smallpox or something else. Governments will crack down on NFTs with new regulation. Volatility in the financial markets. Some type of reaction to price increases in the US. New types of remote jobs will emerge as technology matures around remote learning. Think Mesh for MS teams
• t0bia_s 5y ago
  Trust of public in governments and media fall dawn rapidly, because people will get more angry and tired of constant restrictions, massive surveillance and rising prices of everything. Eventually civil war here and there. Tendencies of green pass and deals will fall, because people simple will not be rich that much to afford "care to nature", priorities will be more focused on survive (financially, mentally, physically...). Later (probably not 2022) being off-line and living in communities became new way of living.
  • blablabla123 5y ago
    I think distrust in governments has already peaked, at least in Europe. The right conservatives have lost votes in the last elections. Also paradoxically Covid has proven conspiracy theorists wrong and further will since more anti-vaccination people will get seriously sick. On the other hand disillusionment in governments will be greater especially from the progressives because of Climate Change. The latter will probably be pivotal and if both governments and economies fail to deliver, this will lead to disrupting changes in the way politics is done. In France there are already citizen councils since the Yellow vest protests (sparked by increased fuel taxes) and in Germany they are also being evaluated. I expect those to grow much stronger already in the upcoming year.
    • chii 5y ago
      > proven conspiracy theorists wrong the problem with conspiracies is that they don't require proof for their world-views!
      • blablabla123 5y ago
        That's true, it's mostly a feeling. On the other hand if looking at Qanon for instance. There are established politicians who kind of support it. I don't think they actually believe there are reptile people below the ground. I would assume it's rather a generic criticism of how things are going.
      • t0bia_s 5y ago
        Define conspiracy.
• simonblack 5y ago
  The most important event looming, and it may be as early as 2022, but no further away than 2025, is a hot war between the West (5 eyes, Europe, Japan) and one or more of China, Russia, Iran. That war will be so major that its onset will completely change all sorts of other things like chip availability, metals availability, motor vehicle production, phone sales, computer sales, house prices, etc, etc, etc.
  • WFHRenaissance 5y ago
    I'll bet zero hot wars between the named major powers emerge before 2030. At least not directly. The most I'd be willing to allow is some sort of proxy conflict. As for cold/warm wars between the named major powers... they're already ongoing. Network/information/trade war is well underway and will not let up for some time.
• MrWiffles 5y ago
  Ok, I'll play. - Rent and housing prices will rise far faster than inflation, leading to record numbers of both involuntary cohabitation and homelessness. Construction for affordable housing and non-luxury rent properties will not substantially increase, resulting in major economic upheaval in most metro areas, even relatively small ones. - The Great Resignation and massive labor shortages will continue unabated, and will likely worsen sharply, driven by a pathological intransigence and outright delusional refusal to raise wages or improve working conditions. The lower middle class will be unable to afford the basic necessities of life - food and shelter - whether the work 80 hours or 2 hours a week, so why bother working at all? - Congress will not raise the minimum wage. They might try to do something for the sake of optics, but everybody will already know it'll be bullshit. - Hoarding of wealth will worsen, driving stock portfolios dangerously high. This will trigger a massive market correction in the following years of historic proportions, potentially rivaling the 2008 collapse. Probably won't be 1932 levels of bad, but might come close. - Russia and China will put forward a geopolitical lie that the US is doomed and their economies are somehow oh so much better. Just look at our economic numbers! Yeah that's recent, we just published that yesterday! Huh? What do you mean "independent audit"? What's "credible source" mean? And don't you dare mention that pesky "free press" nonsense. We have...places...for people like you. - Patient-facing healthcare staff demand will rise even more sharply, as will their pay, and their amount of overworked hours, even beyond 2021's hellscape of abuse. Record numbers of people in these roles will commit suicide, leading to fewer staff and further demoralizing an already exhausted staff in communities where this will happen. - Government spending will drastically increase far beyond expectations as a necessary tourniquet for a hemmorhaging economy. The dollar's value will continue to fall, ultimately stabilizing by Q4 as the Fed finally makes the hard call on policy. - Right-wing conspiracy theories will continue to gain followers and popularity, driven substantially by continued efforts from malicious global adversaries, most notably Russia, who will seek to invade Georgia and forcibly annex it again if that division is enough to keep us paralyzed, unable to drop the hammer on them after the deed is done. This will further stress similarly declining conditions in the EU as they try to stabilize the situation. - Remote work will increase in popularity, as will competition for remote jobs across all relevant economic sectors and roles. This will keep job seekers unemployed longer in spite of the labor shortage. It will also increase discrimination and create a false sense of entitlement for employers, making them feel somewhat as if they once again have all the power. Expect pay and working conditions for professional roles to improve as employers try to compete for "the best" throughout the nation, not just their area(s). - The catch for remote work? Your privacy - your dignity - will be the price you have to pay if you want that better job (now necessary just to survive since rent is so much higher). Employers will drastically increase workplace performance monitoring to the point of absurd, abusive, and even downright evil. Those who refuse to give in will be unemployed longer than those who capitulate, creating a strong preference for "easy to abuse" as a major, if not top, hiring criteria, above qualifications, especially among large corporations. Corporate so-called "values" will be increasingly viewed as outright lies. - At least 10 people who read this comment will be dead inside of one year due to this economic upheaval. Many more will die nationwide, a frighteningly record number of them being children. - Costs for healthcare, particularly mental health, will rise faster than inflation and faster than costs to provide. Antidepressants and other psychiatric medications will be prescribed in record numbers, even beyond 2021's standards. Prices for these medications, even old ones, will sharply increase as a result. Expect your co-pay and deductible to go up, and your available formulary to be heavily revised to your detriment. Insurers will not be held accountable. - Antitrust and privacy protection efforts will universally stall, and most will die out. Google, Facebook, and their ilk won't face justice any time soon. This means their abuses of human rights and privacy will not only continue, but get worse. Much worse. - Violent crime will increase drastically. Upper-middle-class white families will feel fear for their safety and their lives for the first time, and not all of us will handle it well. Expect gun sales, particularly to those who shouldn't have them, to increase, and while most will eventually get it together, eventually somebody's going to get killed by an untrained gun owner who open-carries, now legally, purely out of fear. This will lead to further calls for gun control that will go without meaningful reform, yet again. --- COVID didn't cause all this, it was just the catalyst, the proverbial straw that broke the camel's back. This perfect storm has been brewing for decades in Washington's cesspool of greed, arrogance and sociopathic narcissism that only Ivy league, Wall Street, military-industrialist elitists could manage to foul up this badly. This has been a long time coming, and it's not your Trump-supporting neighbor's fault any more than it is the Black Lives Matter guy's across the street. We're all being used, abused and lied to, and without a way to enforce consequences for those who've put themselves above the welfare of this country that we've entrusted them with, it won't change. A violent revolution is doomed to failure - how can you bring freedom and hope with a blood-soaked sword? - but some form of non-violent, powerful action will happen by 2050, probably sooner. --- America has been through worse and triumphed before. We can do it again! This is not the end at all, but the painful moment of change in an ongoing cycle of birth, death and rebirth. This is where the ascended phoenix catches fire and burns, falling to ash below. And it's going to be hard. Not everyone who reads this post will live to see 2023. But don't give up, because that phoenix will absolutely rise again, and we're going to need you - your help, your passion, your joy and heart - to make our mutual moment in the sun last longer this time 'round. It's always darkest just before dawn. ...but there is always a dawn. Just make sure you're still around to see it. Because you damn well deserve it. And because future generations deserve it too.
• kbob 5y ago
  Satoshi Nakamoto will be revealed to be an extraterrestrial info-warrior sent to destroy humanity by tricking us into turning all our carbon fuels into random numbers. This will happen sometime in April.
• RickJWagner 5y ago
  Continued Covid battles until it eventually becomes something like the flu. In American politics, the pendulum swings back the other way and 'red' politicians defeat 'blue' politicians. Inflation continues. Interest rates rise. The Great Resignation continues until cash reserves are dried up and rising prices mandate people have a source of income. At that point, jobs become a little harder to get. Generally tough economic times. Containerization continues to dominate IT headlines. This results in a fertile job market for IT practitioners.
• errantmind 5y ago
  * The FED will do everything it can to avoid raising interest rates, while trying to convince everyone they might have to do it at some point * Mandatory vaccination in the US will be struck down in the Supreme Court * There will be increasing dissonance between people who think Covid is still a thing and people who stopped caring * Gold will break $2000/oz * Cryptocurrency will continue to appreciate in value. NFTs will also still be around.. both making a lot of people on HN lose their sanity. * A second country will announce accepting BTC as legal tender, driving a breakout in price. Several people on HN will post in the comments about how all cryptocurrency is a scam and trad-fi is better * Young people will continue to 'peace out' of the job market, viewing it as a game for suckers. Companies that can't raise wages will increasingly go out of business. * College applications submitted will decrease substantially nationwide * 'What happened in 1971?' will pop up even more on social media * A hipster farming movement will gain nationwide attention
• timdaub 5y ago
  - Someone will create an AI that can generate artificially and unnatural looking sequences of sound and images that will make humans mega horny because it's hacking the human sexuality. - The orange guy from the US will say something stupid - Bitcoin - People will not start liking Zuck more - The rich will get richer - In a final implosion Elon will say something so incredibly stupid that he'll get canceled indefinitely - Software devs become the new "bankers". Everyone hates them. - China will go full nationalism. Further evidence of genocide will be discovered - COVID - Self-driving cars will become the new norm but nobody gives a shit. - Bikes are the new cars. Bike innovation incoming. - Food delivery startups will cease to exist. Only the few that pay their workers super badly will continue to exist - It's getting hot in here.
  • timdaub 5y ago
    Actually, now that I'm thinking. It would be kinda revolutionary if Ape released the iBike that is a high tech and good looking ebike.
• zvr 5y ago
  My prediction: most of the predictions will be wrong.
  • tibyat 5y ago
    im in this boat. everyone in here seems to think it will just be a repeat of this year. when has that ever been the case? we'll have new problems like always.
• anthk 5y ago
  - Solar powered devices get a boost against a fear on a blackout - Thus, Rasberry Pi's based MUD's/clients and light text games over web/telnet/ssh get a reissanance. - COVID get worse in North-Pyrenees Europe, Spain will be used as the "Gold standard" on how to do the things well. - Vaccines will be mandatory in German speaking countries as the magufos/alt-medicine hipppies headed the then-current events really wrong. - Network support will be flakey because of device/chips' shortage, so "offline first" will be the motto then. - Said that, Usenet/Mail and similar asynchronous comms will come back soon.
• bewestphal 5y ago
  - Big loans will be transacted in cryptocurrency due to concerns about inflation. This will become more commonplace. - Large scale ransoms and hacks will continue. Driving fear to take cybersecurity more seriously. - Distrust in mainstream media outlets will push users to siloed echo chamber platforms. Lower barriers to entry to develop the tech behind the platforms will allow them to grow rapidly. - The metaverse will not get adoption but the signs of being the future of entertainment will be there. - A significant breakthrough for brain computer interfaces will be released for gaming. (See Gabe Newell interview) Every big company starts racing to research BCI tech. - EV startups productionizing for the first time will experience reliability and scalability issues. Tesla’s lead in industry will be apparent but competitors will start closing the gap.
• mikewarot 5y ago
  Covid will continue to decimate the workforce, societal awareness of the cruel after-effects begins to take shape in 2022. Life expectancy will fall sharply for the next decade, especially in United States. Tether will implode at some point, taking Bitcoin down at least 95% for a few weeks or months, it eventually recovers and keeps rising. A major cyberattack takes down the US power grid for a week in the Summer of 2023 in at least one major US city. September 11, 2023, coordinated terrorist attacks on power substations disrupt the grid across the United States, millions lose power, and it becomes apparent that many won't have electricity for months, or years, as our supply chain can't make replacement gear fast enough. Thanksgiving 2023, China takes back Formosa (previously known as Taiwan), and the US, still reeling from supply shortages, will have no choice but to accept this with only loud protests. 2024 - The US dollar loses its global reserve currency status. The standard of living in the United States precipitously falls. A new political party sweeps into power in the fall elections. This party promises to implement ranked choice voting, make lobbyists illegal, fully fund the IRS, and raise income taxes on the rich to their 1950 levels. A one time 33% tax/amnesty is offered to those are willing to bring their assets back into the US, a substantial savings from the new rates. 2025 - Because imports are suddenly expensive, the United States embarks on a reconstruction of its manufacturing sector. Tax incentives are given to small businesses, and there is a strong push to support maker spaces in public libraries.
• binarynate 5y ago
  - Apple will release its VR headset, significantly boosting the already growing interest in XR for entertainment and productivity. Combined with Meta's developments and marketing, the concept of the "metaverse" will enter average Americans' lexicon, but it will be overhyped relative to its current maturity level. However, this new hardware and increased interest and will spur real innovation and commerce, resulting in new applications and companies that will have a significant impact years in the future. - AR headsets will still to be too expensive for consumers, but Microsoft's Hololens 2 will continue to see adoption for high-end industrial applications. - Society will continue transitioning toward living with Covid as an endemic disease, and as the severity of outbreaks decrease, life will continue its slow approach back to normalcy. - The S&P 500 will see modest gains with the tech sector doing particularly well.
• nicbou 5y ago
  Politics: The environment will get a bigger slice of the political discussion, but nothing major will come out of it. North America will put everything on electric cars while neglecting everything else. Europe will do a lot more. The rest of the world won't do anything. COVID: Governments will tighten the screws on unvaccinated people and nudge them agressively towards vaccination or isolation. It will make some people uneasy, and others will cheer for it. Entertainment: Adam Driver will be cast in every blockbuster, sometimes more than once. Technology: Big tech will build more of their own chips, mostly ARM chips. The Metaverse will fail to excite the crowd. The EU will isssue billion dollar antitrust fines.
• niknoble 5y ago
  - Unity Software will hit $400 per share. - The first serious mass-market VR haptics glove will be announced. By the end of the decade, most newly purchased consumer VR headsets will use haptic gloves instead of controllers. - At some point during the year, SpaceX's Starship will reach orbit and then land successfully, but SpaceX will not attempt to send anything to Mars yet. - Another machine learning model will go viral, generating a similar amount of excitement as GPT-3. - Most people will still be wearing masks in Bay Area grocery stores at the end of the year. - In 2022 or 2023, a disease that is not Covid will sweep through the world. The phrase "twin pandemics" will emerge and become popular. - Republicans will win big in U.S. midterm elections. - US media outlets will identify a surge in far right, nationalist sentiment among young people, with Nick Fuentes being a central figure. - Crypto will become politicized. By the end of the year, it will be universally felt that support for crypto suggests right-wing sentiment.
  • austincheney 5y ago
    - Republicans will win big in U.S. midterm elections. - US media outlets will identify a surge in far right, nationalist sentiment among young people, with Nick Fuentes being a central figure. I agree with this first point for the same reason I disagree with the second. I think people are generally done with social media fueled extremes. I think the Trump brand is done and the progressive agenda will be voted into a minority. I think people will be voting for more Republicans than Democrats in 2022 but the real winners from either party will be centrists/moderates talking about budgets.
• deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
• vemodalen 5y ago
  - Malware crypto coin(s) will be created. - James Webb telescope will miss its desired orbit. - Brain drain in Australia. - EU will not figure out its daylight savings issue. - Fields medal will award another woman maybe Maryna Viazovska or Kaisa Matomäki -An explicit example will be found (e.g. Merten's or Skewes's) - World cup will be one of the biggest sport disasters. - A heat dome near the Baltic Sea. - Seeing Jim Morrison's work is in public domain (2022) for Canada & NZ. Causes the UK to pressure these two to switch to +70 policy before J. R. R. Tolkien works become public (2024). -Covid causes more places to consider "die with dignity" policies.
• bjourne 5y ago
  Record-breaking heatwaves in 2022. The same in 2023 and 2024.
• ss108 5y ago
  - Republicans will continue to make electoral gains because of a) Gerrymandering; b) the fact that Trump is no longer in the picture. - Covid will be the same as it is right now; basically a non-factor for a lot of people except that certain spaces require them to wear masks in what feels like a very perfunctory manner. - Stephen Breyer will die in the middle of the 2024 election campaign and, for whatever reason, the Senate will not be able to confirm someone to fill the vacancy in time...
• dt123 5y ago
  - Boris Johnson resigns or is institutionalised - house prices in the UK increase by 10% - Crypto is banned in the EU (and other places?) for environmental reasons - Jeff Bezos will surpass 300bn USD in net worth - A billionaire tax will be introduced in the US (only to be cancelled by Trump when he gets back in in 2024)