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> Knuth estimates 2% of the world has what it takes to be a programmer. Without knowing Knuth's criteria it sounds arbitrary. Would it be Knuth caliber program
by geodel 5y ago
> Knuth estimates 2% of the world has what it takes to be a programmer.
Without knowing Knuth's criteria it sounds arbitrary. Would it be Knuth caliber programer? Then 2 percent seems high. Or one could change webpage color / deploy some simple app with click of button or running couple line of script. I guess 80% of adult population might be able to do in 2030.
> but also keeping in mind that the most of the world's existing and aspiring programmers won't be interested in minimum wage long-term
Well minimum wage workers are also not interested in that for long term. However that's what people will do if it is the only thing available.
- sincerely 5y agoJust for context, the US adult literacy rate is 80%
- trentgreene 5y agoIn the UK, it's 99%, and I'd bet there's not a huge difference in talent
- mejutoco 5y agoAre you sure? This source claims it is 99% https://www.nationsencyclopedia.com/WorldStats/CIA-World-Factbook-Literacy.html https://www.nationsencyclopedia.com/WorldStats/CIA-World-Fac...
- kiba 5y agoWithout knowing Knuth's criteria it sounds arbitrary. Would it be Knuth caliber programer? Then 2 percent seems high. Or one could change webpage color / deploy some simple app with click of button or running couple line of script. I guess 80% of adult population might be able to do in 2030. My guess it required quite a bit of technical finesses not obvious to a person with some technical experience.
- wyldfire 5y agoWhen Knuth made that prediction, there were probably tons of rough edges to programming. But now we have powerful abstractions that make it much simpler. I think his estimate makes more sense if you qualify it as someone who is able to investigate and devise a bugfix for anywhere in that great sea of abstractions.