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There has been talk for years about China's wild construction programs, creating entire cities that nobody lives in. It was obviously unsustainable. Could it be

There has been talk for years about China's wild construction programs, creating entire cities that nobody lives in. It was obviously unsustainable. Could it be finally falling apart?

whimsicalism 5y ago
The follow up reporting (not widely circulated in the West) on this was that many of those cities have since been filled up and inhabited. https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Society/China-s-largest-ghost-city-booms-again-thanks-to-education-fever https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Society/China-s-largest-gh... Wade Shepard, author of Ghost Cities of China: > Today, China’s so-called ghost cities that were so prevalently showcased in 2013 and 2014 (...) have filled up to the point of being functioning, normal cities I would be really, really skeptical of post-2012 reporting on China. I understand why people are increasingly anti-China (the Uyghur stuff is disgusting) but you really don't get close to a neutral perspective from most of the Western media.
- thereddaikon 5y ago
  Neither do you get one from China itself. Its hard to tell what is really going on when everyone has an agenda to warp reality.
  - whimsicalism 5y ago
    Totally. I found actually visiting China to be informative.
    - chii 5y ago
      There's a saying in chinese, which roughly translates to "seeing is understanding", and it is so true. You can only see the truth for yourself, and you need to see it with your own eyes.
  - smilekzs 5y ago
    FWIW, the quoted article is from Japan.
    - thereddaikon 5y ago
      Oh yeah, I wasn't commenting on that article directly. Just adding that any discussion about matters on the ground in China will always get warped because every information broker has a strong incentive to push their agenda. CCP will always want to make things seem rosy and perfect. Western Media wants to make it seem bad because drama sells.
      - toyg 5y ago
        It's not (just) that "drama sells", but that the US constantly need a Great Satan to justify massive military spending and force projection. The USSR is gone and its replacement is only dangerous to its immediate neighbours, so it doesn't really work for that role. China, on the other hand, has (not that) quiet ambitions of global dominance, so it works well. It doesn't help that the Chinese are fond of making clearly-illiberal moves every other day.
  - dragonelite 5y ago
    It doesn't help that those so called "experts" can't even read of understand the language. And a anti china bias is a sure way to get promoted. The system makes sure the story write themselves and then westerners are surprised it didn't went the way they expected it would. That is pretty much my conclusion from watching think tank china watchers for over 8 years, I got so annoyed I decided to learn the language myself this year, should be a interesting journey the next 5 years or so.
- seanmcdirmid 5y ago
  You can go visit Kangbashi (Ordos's new distrcit) today (well, when China opens again) if you want to see a ghost city. Kangbashi will fill up as soon as coal becomes popular in China again, which is probably never. Or even closer to Beijing in Tianjin's new financial district. Actually, the tallest building in China is an incomplete sky scraper in Tianjin (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goldin_Finance_117 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goldin_Finance_117), which hasn't had any work done on it since 2015 or so (similar to North Korea's Ryugyong Hotel). > but you really don't get close to a neutral perspective from most of the Western media. If anything considering my 9 years living in Beijing, western media holds off on a lot of crazy things that happen in China. No one would actually believe the reality, they would think it was all made up (e.g. the incomplete sky scraper in Tianjin).
  - whimsicalism 5y ago
    I don't think an unbuilt tower is as crazy as you think it is. There are tons of unfinished projects scattered throughout the West. I actually was just next to a massive one (not in the US but in Europe) the other day. > You can go visit Kangbashi (Ordos's new distrcit) today (well, when China opens again) if you want to see a ghost city. Kangbashi will fill up as soon as coal becomes popular in China again, which is probably never. If you read the article I posted, Kangbashi is specifically the district under discussion - it is no longer empty, actively building new apartments due to demand. Coal didn't become popular again, but they moved the top schools of the province into the area.
    - seanmcdirmid 5y ago
      > I don't think an unbuilt tower is as crazy as you think it is. Every time I've visited Tianjin, I've seen a derelict half built sky scraper. The first time I visited was in 1999. What is up with that city? > There are tons of unfinished projects scattered throughout the West. In the USA? There are none, not sky scrapers. Maybe that half built Huawei facility in Wisconsin? > I actually was just next to a massive one (not in the US but in Europe) Great! Eastern or Western Europe? > If you read the article I posted, Kangbashi is specifically the district under discussion - it is no longer empty, actively building new apartments due to demand. Kangbashi was originally specced for a few million people. It has...maybe a hundred thousand now? The streets are still pretty empty compared to the rest of Urban Ordos. > Coal didn't become popular again, but they moved the top schools of the province into the area. They moved one top school to the area. Will it be enough? Can you make a city by relocating a few middle school and university campuses? That only gives you so much growth.
vkou 5y ago
China builds housing in advance of demand. In the United States, we fail to build housing even in the face of demand. There's pros and cons to either system, but so far, the demand has largely arrived. The ghost cities of 2010 are now bustling metropolises. The ghost cities of 2020... Are on track to become bustling metropolises. China has added ~500 million people to its cities over the past 50 years. 'Build in anticipation of demand' seems like a sensible approach to this sort of thing.
- thereddaikon 5y ago
  As long as you can make sure they don't rot before people move in. There are pros and cons to both approaches and I have personally seen the downsides to not building enough housing. We also allow far too much speculation on residential real estate in the US for my liking. People's livelihoods shouldn't be traded commodities.
  - whimsicalism 5y ago
    You need speculation to send price signals to the housing producers. Speculation without any building is the problem. Speculators blocking new building is also a problem.
    - vkou 5y ago
      Speculation is also a problem when you have to pay to play. Everyone needs housing, but when owning a house means it has a speculative resale value, you have to pay that premium in order to buy one. This has a few consequences: 1. Downpayments and mortgages grow, because you aren't just buying shelter, you are buying a financial instrument with a significant resale value. 2. Your financial well-being is now deeply entwined in the fate of the housing and mortgage market. Higher interest rates become horrible for you, as they depress housing prices, and put your home underwater. New construction is horrible to you, as it reduces the value of the speculative portion of your purchase. Likewise for the existence of affordable forms of housing, and renter-friendly legislature. Speculation from the perspective of a developer is part of running a business. They shoulder a fair amount of financial risk when they choose to develop, and obviously want to hedge it. Speculation as a 'every homeowner in the country is also a speculator, whether they want to be one or not' leads to some questionable outcomes.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

There has been talk for years about China's wild construction programs, creating entire cities that nobody lives in. It was obviously unsustainable. Could it be finally falling apart?

whimsicalism 5y ago

The follow up reporting (not widely circulated in the West) on this was that many of those cities have since been filled up and inhabited. https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Society/China-s-largest-ghost-city-booms-again-thanks-to-education-fever https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Society/China-s-largest-gh... Wade Shepard, author of Ghost Cities of China: > Today, China’s so-called ghost cities that were so prevalently showcased in 2013 and 2014 (...) have filled up to the point of being functioning, normal cities I would be really, really skeptical of post-2012 reporting on China. I understand why people are increasingly anti-China (the Uyghur stuff is disgusting) but you really don't get close to a neutral perspective from most of the Western media.

thereddaikon 5y ago
Neither do you get one from China itself. Its hard to tell what is really going on when everyone has an agenda to warp reality.
- whimsicalism 5y ago
  Totally. I found actually visiting China to be informative.
  - chii 5y ago
    There's a saying in chinese, which roughly translates to "seeing is understanding", and it is so true. You can only see the truth for yourself, and you need to see it with your own eyes.
- smilekzs 5y ago
  FWIW, the quoted article is from Japan.
  - thereddaikon 5y ago
    Oh yeah, I wasn't commenting on that article directly. Just adding that any discussion about matters on the ground in China will always get warped because every information broker has a strong incentive to push their agenda. CCP will always want to make things seem rosy and perfect. Western Media wants to make it seem bad because drama sells.
    - toyg 5y ago
      It's not (just) that "drama sells", but that the US constantly need a Great Satan to justify massive military spending and force projection. The USSR is gone and its replacement is only dangerous to its immediate neighbours, so it doesn't really work for that role. China, on the other hand, has (not that) quiet ambitions of global dominance, so it works well. It doesn't help that the Chinese are fond of making clearly-illiberal moves every other day.
- dragonelite 5y ago
  It doesn't help that those so called "experts" can't even read of understand the language. And a anti china bias is a sure way to get promoted. The system makes sure the story write themselves and then westerners are surprised it didn't went the way they expected it would. That is pretty much my conclusion from watching think tank china watchers for over 8 years, I got so annoyed I decided to learn the language myself this year, should be a interesting journey the next 5 years or so.
seanmcdirmid 5y ago
You can go visit Kangbashi (Ordos's new distrcit) today (well, when China opens again) if you want to see a ghost city. Kangbashi will fill up as soon as coal becomes popular in China again, which is probably never. Or even closer to Beijing in Tianjin's new financial district. Actually, the tallest building in China is an incomplete sky scraper in Tianjin (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goldin_Finance_117 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goldin_Finance_117), which hasn't had any work done on it since 2015 or so (similar to North Korea's Ryugyong Hotel). > but you really don't get close to a neutral perspective from most of the Western media. If anything considering my 9 years living in Beijing, western media holds off on a lot of crazy things that happen in China. No one would actually believe the reality, they would think it was all made up (e.g. the incomplete sky scraper in Tianjin).
- whimsicalism 5y ago
  I don't think an unbuilt tower is as crazy as you think it is. There are tons of unfinished projects scattered throughout the West. I actually was just next to a massive one (not in the US but in Europe) the other day. > You can go visit Kangbashi (Ordos's new distrcit) today (well, when China opens again) if you want to see a ghost city. Kangbashi will fill up as soon as coal becomes popular in China again, which is probably never. If you read the article I posted, Kangbashi is specifically the district under discussion - it is no longer empty, actively building new apartments due to demand. Coal didn't become popular again, but they moved the top schools of the province into the area.
  - seanmcdirmid 5y ago
    > I don't think an unbuilt tower is as crazy as you think it is. Every time I've visited Tianjin, I've seen a derelict half built sky scraper. The first time I visited was in 1999. What is up with that city? > There are tons of unfinished projects scattered throughout the West. In the USA? There are none, not sky scrapers. Maybe that half built Huawei facility in Wisconsin? > I actually was just next to a massive one (not in the US but in Europe) Great! Eastern or Western Europe? > If you read the article I posted, Kangbashi is specifically the district under discussion - it is no longer empty, actively building new apartments due to demand. Kangbashi was originally specced for a few million people. It has...maybe a hundred thousand now? The streets are still pretty empty compared to the rest of Urban Ordos. > Coal didn't become popular again, but they moved the top schools of the province into the area. They moved one top school to the area. Will it be enough? Can you make a city by relocating a few middle school and university campuses? That only gives you so much growth.

vkou 5y ago

China builds housing in advance of demand. In the United States, we fail to build housing even in the face of demand. There's pros and cons to either system, but so far, the demand has largely arrived. The ghost cities of 2010 are now bustling metropolises. The ghost cities of 2020... Are on track to become bustling metropolises. China has added ~500 million people to its cities over the past 50 years. 'Build in anticipation of demand' seems like a sensible approach to this sort of thing.

thereddaikon 5y ago
As long as you can make sure they don't rot before people move in. There are pros and cons to both approaches and I have personally seen the downsides to not building enough housing. We also allow far too much speculation on residential real estate in the US for my liking. People's livelihoods shouldn't be traded commodities.
- whimsicalism 5y ago
  You need speculation to send price signals to the housing producers. Speculation without any building is the problem. Speculators blocking new building is also a problem.
  - vkou 5y ago
    Speculation is also a problem when you have to pay to play. Everyone needs housing, but when owning a house means it has a speculative resale value, you have to pay that premium in order to buy one. This has a few consequences: 1. Downpayments and mortgages grow, because you aren't just buying shelter, you are buying a financial instrument with a significant resale value. 2. Your financial well-being is now deeply entwined in the fate of the housing and mortgage market. Higher interest rates become horrible for you, as they depress housing prices, and put your home underwater. New construction is horrible to you, as it reduces the value of the speculative portion of your purchase. Likewise for the existence of affordable forms of housing, and renter-friendly legislature. Speculation from the perspective of a developer is part of running a business. They shoulder a fair amount of financial risk when they choose to develop, and obviously want to hedge it. Speculation as a 'every homeowner in the country is also a speculator, whether they want to be one or not' leads to some questionable outcomes.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]