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> Shares of developer Fantasia Holdings (1777.HK) plunged 50% on Wednesday after it said there was no guarantee it would be able to meet its other financial obl

> Shares of developer Fantasia Holdings (1777.HK) plunged 50% on Wednesday after it said there was no guarantee it would be able to meet its other financial obligations following a missed payment of $205.7 million due on Oct. 4. Watch the US bond market closely. Today saw a sharp selloff on the 10-year maturity, a favorite "asset" of foreign governments and companies. When those organizations get into trouble, they sell treasuries to raise cash. "Trouble" often comes in the form of dollar-denominated debt which must be serviced in dollars. As the dollar rises, borrowers of dollar-denominated debt must raise more local currency to buy the dollars to service their loans. That puts further upward pressure on the dollar, distressing foreign usd-debtholders even more. It's called a "short squeeze": https://www.lynalden.com/global-dollar-short-squeeze/ https://www.lynalden.com/global-dollar-short-squeeze/ The entire world (including the US federal government) has taken a short position on the US dollar by assuming obligations requiring them to pay later in dollars. Ask any Ape on WallStreetBets what happens to shorts during a short squeeze, and you'll get the same answer: they get rekt. The dollar spiked past a key technical level today. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=DXY https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=DXY In 2020, a similar dynamic took hold, with stocks, bonds, and gold falling in price as the dollar surged. We may not be there yet, but the scramble for dollars in China (and possibly all of Asia) is just starting.

rwmj 5y ago
Is your theory that the US government will run out of dollars? How do you imagine that will happen - a paper shortage?
- Andrew_nenakhov 5y ago
  Digits overflow would be a more appropriate concern
- codyb 5y ago
  The system isn't that simple? The US Government sells treasuries and bonds to raise dollars. These have to be approved by congress, which is why every so often you'll hear about government shutdowns, because, yes, if for whatever reason, the US Congress doesn't pass a debt ceiling lift, the US Treasury will not have enough money to run things anymore. Then there's the Federal Reserve, which loans dollars to banks to create liquidity and velocity in the monetary system depending on certain conditions (Primarily inflation and unemployment I believe). (Presumably there's a fair amount more to it than that as well).
  - scoopertrooper 5y ago
    The real fun begins when the fed starts buying treasuries.
    - zeusk 5y ago
      What happens then? Don't they already do that?
- throwaway09223 5y ago
  Paper money makes up only about 10% of the total money supply. The vast majority of USD is just represented by data in a ledger.
  - guiriduro 5y ago
    Which is an order of magnitude easier to come by, proving OP's point.
- zhdc1 5y ago
  I think the OP is saying that you can have a situation where the short term demand for dollars outstrips the supply available at that given time (think in terms of hours or days). This could lead to a sharp but short increase in the value of the dollar, since there's only a limited, albeit extremely large, amount available on the market at any given time.
  - hangonhn 5y ago
    The bank needing the currency asks the central bank for the extra currency and it’s simply a number in a “database” somewhere. It can be done rather quickly.
    - chii 5y ago
      it's not the bank, but the borrowers who need the currency. So an increase in borrowing from various parties pushes the interest rate higher (the banks would want to charge as high an interest as possible, but no higher than what would make the client move to a different bank for the loan). The central bank could potentially alleviate and increase borrowing without interest rate hikes by allowing the banks themselves to obtain funds from CB at a lower interest (than another bank), and the competition between banks would push the interest rate back down.
- quickthrower2 5y ago
  I take the post as the US dollar becoming more scarce but not running out. If OP is right I don’t see the federal reserve acting to bail out China. They might happen to do QE for another reason but not to help out other countries with their problems.
  - pishpash 5y ago
    As the bank of the world's reserve currency the Fed is always implicitly running a world bank. The transmission mechanism is for foreign currency to depreciate against USD which causes US domestic financial conditions to tighten, and the Fed would then have to loosen.
- version_five 5y ago
  The entire value of the currency is based on supply and demand, whether the gp is correct in their prediction, increased demand relative to supply is the defining mechanism of how a currency's value would increase.
yaacov 5y ago
Are you predicting large scale deflation? That’s the opposite of what we’re seeing now, but if it happens the fed can fix it by just printing money.
- jen729w 5y ago
  I’m far from an expert, but can the US Fed really print more money? Didn’t I hear that something like 30% of the USD in circulation today didn’t exist at the start of 2020? It has to stop somewhere. Doesn’t it? (Genuine question!)
  - yaacov 5y ago
    The limiting factor is inflation! If we get massive deflation from a “dollar short squeeze” (which I don’t actually think is likely but it’s what OP was suggesting) that means we need more inflation, which printing money would produce.
    - mym1990 5y ago
      This is just treating a symptom, and not the underlying cause(whatever that may be).
      - seoaeu 5y ago
        When the symptom is having too much money to spend, it isn't clear that you want to "treat" the cause in the first place!
    - majormajor 5y ago
      Printing money doesn't necessarily create inflation if it doesn't go into circulation. My understanding is that "printing money" with a jobs program would be more effective at stimulating spending that, say, "printing money" with cheap interest rates (which might just mostly ultimately go into people's bank accounts as they sell assets to people borrowing the cheap money).
  - polyomino 5y ago
boplicity 5y ago
> The dollar spiked past a key technical level today. I don't know much about "technical" forex trading, but I can say that USD/CNY didn't really change today, neither did USD/CAD, or USD/GBP. Everything is around where it's been over the past few weeks. Are you saying the real exchange rates will significantly change soon?
- baybal2 5y ago
  Short term USD/CNY is clamped by Chinese government currency purchases. People will only notice when China decides its FX is running low
  - timomax2 5y ago
    Hmmm. Chinese currency is fundementally undervalue though. I don't think this "running low" can happen. Chinese business and gov must have vast USD assets.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- redisman 5y ago
  TA is tarot for finance bros.
- boplicity 5y ago
  Turns out that USD is getting stronger today, except, of course, against CNY. Interesting.
whatever1 5y ago
The US can keep issuing dollars for as long as they like. And you will buy these pieces of paper because they are backed by the US Military, the US Air Force and the US Navy.
- roody15 5y ago
  Are you sure? The US military doesn’t look to be at its peak. Despite its massive budget China’s military rise and the return of Russian military power might be changing the US’s role as the worlds only military super power. We may spend 10 times more than any other nation on our military … but due to bureaucracy and other inefficiencies our spending doesn’t quite get the same bang for its buck if you will.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - asdff 5y ago
    US has spent the last 20 years testing technology in a real theater. China shoots at props in the desert. Russia can't afford to even play this game.
    - roody15 5y ago
      Recent history would suggest otherwise.
      - johnny22 5y ago
        there is no recent history of conventional warfare. It's all guerilla stuff.
- phist_mcgee 5y ago
  And the marines and coast guard too!
- darawk 5y ago
  They can keep issuing them. They will not have the same value, though.
HFguy 5y ago
Rates went up because of the release of the inflation data. It wasn’t anything to do with what you are mentioning. Also, while the dynamic you describe is real (1) the mechanics are not similar to an equity short squeeze , not a good analogy and (2) unlikely this type of pressure comes from China. They need to hold/buy treasuries to manage their currency (ie keep it weak). If they don’t, their export competitiveness suffers which is last thing that gov will allow. They have other ways of managing the situation.
- baq 5y ago
  the fed are clowns. inflation data should have been priced in as anybody worth their salt (or indeed anybody doing any kind of shopping, which is everyone) knew that inflation would print above expectations, especially fed's. today's reaction was... panic of uninformed volume?
  - ethbr0 5y ago
    The Fed never said they weren't expecting inflation: they said they expected any inflation to be transitory (e.g. to return to expected levels by the end of 2022/23). So, we'll see.
    - anm89 5y ago
      I would say that is still not a very credible claim.
  - HFguy 5y ago
    It wasn’t priced in or the market would not have moved. “everyone knew that Inflation would be above expectations” you should think about this more. Regardless, why does any of this make the feds clowns?
    - baq 5y ago
      Because I’ve been positioned in the market for inflation since February. If I could figure that out, what were they doing?
xxpor 5y ago
No comment on the content of the lynalden.com post (haven't read the entire thing yet), but for the love of pete, blog writers, please make sure you put a date on your posts. Especially when you're discussing something that involves current events.
- kipchak 5y ago
  I think she might just have forgotten to date this one? Most other articles back to 2020 seem to have publish dates. Either way this one seems to be from April 2020.
  - ethbr0 5y ago
    It does seem to be a trend in less-than-professional blogs. Although I'd assume, maybe it helps with traffic? Presumably people would be more interested in reading a previous financial post, if they didn't know it was 2 years old.
    - jessaustin 5y ago
      The "best" policy is for content to start out dated and then simply erase the dates as it gets older.
      - joe_guy 5y ago
        An SEO scam I see some sites run is change it to an "updated at"
riggins 5y ago
Name 1 example of a currency crisis where the debtor nation had debt denominated in their own currency. I'll save you the time. There are no examples. Every currency crisis has debt denominated in a foreign currency. - Germany in the 1930 (WW1 reparations were gold marks) - Argetina (foreign borrow and currency peg to USD). - Thailand. - Turkey (now, borrowed in Euro). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_reparations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_reparations "Germany agreed to pay reparations of 132 billion gold marks" https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/asian-financial-crisis https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/asian-financial... "Heavy foreign borrowing, " https://economics.rabobank.com/publications/2013/august/the-argentine-crisis-20012002-/ https://economics.rabobank.com/publications/2013/august/the-... "Argentina’s hard currency peg to the US Dollar, pro-cyclical fiscal policies and extensive foreign borrowing" If you're going claim a coming currency crisis, test that assumption against the historical record at your earliest convenience.
- beambot 5y ago
  GP agrees with you: They're saying the currency crisis starting in Asia is USD-denominated (the international bonds in particular), which is creating a positive feedback loop when USD-RMB exchange rates spike. They're saying you might see this manifest as big movements in bond redemptions or sales as people scramble to secure USD.
  - riggins 5y ago
    I assume you mean OP? > The entire world (including the US federal government) has taken a short position on the US dollar I read this as a prediction of some type of crisis. Anyway, wrt the US Federal Government, having government debt is not that same as having a short position. For one, the US Fed govt's revenue (i.e. tax collection) is denominated in the same USD as the debt. So if USD goes up, tax collection go up.
    - rsync 5y ago
      "I read this as a prediction of some type of crisis." I think your parent was suggesting that the behavior of the entire world is effectively a short-dollar position - whether they intended it to be or not.
SilasX 5y ago
And yet, a 1.56% yield for ten years (below its 18 month high) while inflation just hit 5.4%[0] doesn’t feel like a big selloff. [0] or 6.2 or whatever depending on what version you use.
hogFeast 5y ago
Chinese state banks have substantial dollar deposits (it is largely state banks that are lending to companies like Evergrande offshore). The PBOC stopped issuing notes (and sterilising the dollar inflow) years ago, and onshore dollar deposits are above $1tn. A lot of the stuff you read about this online is exceptionally misleading (I have no idea why there is this cottage industry of "economic experts" who don't understand economics...it is parallel to the gold bug industry, it is very weird).
- knowmylimits 5y ago
  What do you mean that they stopped issuing notes. China expands their money supply almost as much by percentage compared to the US.
  - hogFeast 5y ago
    Domestic banks were not allowed to hold USD deposits (because that would have meant export earnings leaked into the Chinese money supply and the RMB would have risen), so when an exporter deposited earnings with them, they would take the dollars to the PBOC who would issue them with an interest-bearing note. Around 2017/18, the PBOC stopped doing this and allowed domestic banks to retain and invest the dollar earnings that exporters deposited. China's money supply is not directly related to the US money supply. China's capital account is still closed. All that has changed is that the onshore dollar market has increased (the PBOC retains a huge amount of control over lending decisions, Chinese state banks are not investing in US markets, it is being retained in China).
SubiculumCode 5y ago
Breaking the Ichimoku cloud!
JamisonM 5y ago
Absolutely crazy that the top comment on this story is a "USD short squeeze" idea after 5 hours. These amounts, 200 million, 150 million USD.. this is peanuts, a fart in the wind. PROTIP: Anyone like Lyn Alden that is offering premium stock tips is by definition a fraud, if you can beat the markets you just beat the markets and Scrooge McDuck-it, you don't run a damn newsletter.
- hndamien 5y ago
  It really isn't hard to beat the markets, just buy Bitcoin.
  - blippage 5y ago
    This investing tip from UK fund manager Terry Smith: it's easy to beat the market, just buy every company in the index except for the airlines.
- dannyw 5y ago
  Nearly every single financial company (including JPM, Morgan Stanley, etc) offer premium stock tips through there analysts... Lyn Alden's site is a wealth of knowledge but I don't subscribe to any newsletters.
  - tcgv 5y ago
    > Nearly every single financial company (including JPM, Morgan Stanley, etc) offer premium stock tips through there analysts... Well, they're expected to do that to maintain their stature as the "lighthouses" of the financial system
    - arcticbull 5y ago
      Not to mention, are they really doing it in good faith? Back in the GFC days, Goldman made headlines for just trading against their clients. Rather, I guess, for saying the quiet part out loud. > Thomas Mazarakis, who heads Goldman’s fundamental strategies group, told select clients in an email that his unit often provided investment ideas that the firm had already traded on and the firm sometimes took the opposite approach, betting against particular instruments recommended by the group, the Times said. > “We may trade, and may have existing positions, based on trading ideas before we have discussed those trading ideas with you,” the paper quoted Mazarakis as writing in the email. [1] Would seem a good way to monetize your audience is to (a) get paid to (b) take positions and then (c) control the narrative around your positions - both publicly and to paying customers to gin the position up. [1] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-goldmansachs-trades/goldman-exec-says-firm-gained-from-trading-against-clients-idUSTRE60C17220100113 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-goldmansachs-trades/goldm...
TheCoelacanth 5y ago
How can the "entire world" have a short position on USD? Who is taking the other side of the position? Is there someone outside of the world lending out money?

rwmj 5y ago

Is your theory that the US government will run out of dollars? How do you imagine that will happen - a paper shortage?

Andrew_nenakhov 5y ago
Digits overflow would be a more appropriate concern
codyb 5y ago
The system isn't that simple? The US Government sells treasuries and bonds to raise dollars. These have to be approved by congress, which is why every so often you'll hear about government shutdowns, because, yes, if for whatever reason, the US Congress doesn't pass a debt ceiling lift, the US Treasury will not have enough money to run things anymore. Then there's the Federal Reserve, which loans dollars to banks to create liquidity and velocity in the monetary system depending on certain conditions (Primarily inflation and unemployment I believe). (Presumably there's a fair amount more to it than that as well).
- scoopertrooper 5y ago
  The real fun begins when the fed starts buying treasuries.
  - zeusk 5y ago
    What happens then? Don't they already do that?
throwaway09223 5y ago
Paper money makes up only about 10% of the total money supply. The vast majority of USD is just represented by data in a ledger.
- guiriduro 5y ago
  Which is an order of magnitude easier to come by, proving OP's point.
zhdc1 5y ago
I think the OP is saying that you can have a situation where the short term demand for dollars outstrips the supply available at that given time (think in terms of hours or days). This could lead to a sharp but short increase in the value of the dollar, since there's only a limited, albeit extremely large, amount available on the market at any given time.
- hangonhn 5y ago
  The bank needing the currency asks the central bank for the extra currency and it’s simply a number in a “database” somewhere. It can be done rather quickly.
  - chii 5y ago
    it's not the bank, but the borrowers who need the currency. So an increase in borrowing from various parties pushes the interest rate higher (the banks would want to charge as high an interest as possible, but no higher than what would make the client move to a different bank for the loan). The central bank could potentially alleviate and increase borrowing without interest rate hikes by allowing the banks themselves to obtain funds from CB at a lower interest (than another bank), and the competition between banks would push the interest rate back down.
quickthrower2 5y ago
I take the post as the US dollar becoming more scarce but not running out. If OP is right I don’t see the federal reserve acting to bail out China. They might happen to do QE for another reason but not to help out other countries with their problems.
- pishpash 5y ago
  As the bank of the world's reserve currency the Fed is always implicitly running a world bank. The transmission mechanism is for foreign currency to depreciate against USD which causes US domestic financial conditions to tighten, and the Fed would then have to loosen.
version_five 5y ago
The entire value of the currency is based on supply and demand, whether the gp is correct in their prediction, increased demand relative to supply is the defining mechanism of how a currency's value would increase.

yaacov 5y ago

Are you predicting large scale deflation? That’s the opposite of what we’re seeing now, but if it happens the fed can fix it by just printing money.

jen729w 5y ago
I’m far from an expert, but can the US Fed really print more money? Didn’t I hear that something like 30% of the USD in circulation today didn’t exist at the start of 2020? It has to stop somewhere. Doesn’t it? (Genuine question!)
- yaacov 5y ago
  The limiting factor is inflation! If we get massive deflation from a “dollar short squeeze” (which I don’t actually think is likely but it’s what OP was suggesting) that means we need more inflation, which printing money would produce.
  - mym1990 5y ago
    This is just treating a symptom, and not the underlying cause(whatever that may be).
    - seoaeu 5y ago
      When the symptom is having too much money to spend, it isn't clear that you want to "treat" the cause in the first place!
  - majormajor 5y ago
    Printing money doesn't necessarily create inflation if it doesn't go into circulation. My understanding is that "printing money" with a jobs program would be more effective at stimulating spending that, say, "printing money" with cheap interest rates (which might just mostly ultimately go into people's bank accounts as they sell assets to people borrowing the cheap money).
- polyomino 5y ago

boplicity 5y ago

> The dollar spiked past a key technical level today. I don't know much about "technical" forex trading, but I can say that USD/CNY didn't really change today, neither did USD/CAD, or USD/GBP. Everything is around where it's been over the past few weeks. Are you saying the real exchange rates will significantly change soon?

baybal2 5y ago
Short term USD/CNY is clamped by Chinese government currency purchases. People will only notice when China decides its FX is running low
- timomax2 5y ago
  Hmmm. Chinese currency is fundementally undervalue though. I don't think this "running low" can happen. Chinese business and gov must have vast USD assets.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
redisman 5y ago
TA is tarot for finance bros.
boplicity 5y ago
Turns out that USD is getting stronger today, except, of course, against CNY. Interesting.

whatever1 5y ago

The US can keep issuing dollars for as long as they like. And you will buy these pieces of paper because they are backed by the US Military, the US Air Force and the US Navy.

roody15 5y ago
Are you sure? The US military doesn’t look to be at its peak. Despite its massive budget China’s military rise and the return of Russian military power might be changing the US’s role as the worlds only military super power. We may spend 10 times more than any other nation on our military … but due to bureaucracy and other inefficiencies our spending doesn’t quite get the same bang for its buck if you will.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- asdff 5y ago
  US has spent the last 20 years testing technology in a real theater. China shoots at props in the desert. Russia can't afford to even play this game.
  - roody15 5y ago
    Recent history would suggest otherwise.
    - johnny22 5y ago
      there is no recent history of conventional warfare. It's all guerilla stuff.
phist_mcgee 5y ago
And the marines and coast guard too!
darawk 5y ago
They can keep issuing them. They will not have the same value, though.

HFguy 5y ago

Rates went up because of the release of the inflation data. It wasn’t anything to do with what you are mentioning. Also, while the dynamic you describe is real (1) the mechanics are not similar to an equity short squeeze , not a good analogy and (2) unlikely this type of pressure comes from China. They need to hold/buy treasuries to manage their currency (ie keep it weak). If they don’t, their export competitiveness suffers which is last thing that gov will allow. They have other ways of managing the situation.

baq 5y ago
the fed are clowns. inflation data should have been priced in as anybody worth their salt (or indeed anybody doing any kind of shopping, which is everyone) knew that inflation would print above expectations, especially fed's. today's reaction was... panic of uninformed volume?
- ethbr0 5y ago
  The Fed never said they weren't expecting inflation: they said they expected any inflation to be transitory (e.g. to return to expected levels by the end of 2022/23). So, we'll see.
  - anm89 5y ago
    I would say that is still not a very credible claim.
- HFguy 5y ago
  It wasn’t priced in or the market would not have moved. “everyone knew that Inflation would be above expectations” you should think about this more. Regardless, why does any of this make the feds clowns?
  - baq 5y ago
    Because I’ve been positioned in the market for inflation since February. If I could figure that out, what were they doing?

xxpor 5y ago

No comment on the content of the lynalden.com post (haven't read the entire thing yet), but for the love of pete, blog writers, please make sure you put a date on your posts. Especially when you're discussing something that involves current events.

kipchak 5y ago
I think she might just have forgotten to date this one? Most other articles back to 2020 seem to have publish dates. Either way this one seems to be from April 2020.
- ethbr0 5y ago
  It does seem to be a trend in less-than-professional blogs. Although I'd assume, maybe it helps with traffic? Presumably people would be more interested in reading a previous financial post, if they didn't know it was 2 years old.
  - jessaustin 5y ago
    The "best" policy is for content to start out dated and then simply erase the dates as it gets older.
    - joe_guy 5y ago
      An SEO scam I see some sites run is change it to an "updated at"

riggins 5y ago

Name 1 example of a currency crisis where the debtor nation had debt denominated in their own currency. I'll save you the time. There are no examples. Every currency crisis has debt denominated in a foreign currency. - Germany in the 1930 (WW1 reparations were gold marks) - Argetina (foreign borrow and currency peg to USD). - Thailand. - Turkey (now, borrowed in Euro). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_reparations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_reparations "Germany agreed to pay reparations of 132 billion gold marks" https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/asian-financial-crisis https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/asian-financial... "Heavy foreign borrowing, " https://economics.rabobank.com/publications/2013/august/the-argentine-crisis-20012002-/ https://economics.rabobank.com/publications/2013/august/the-... "Argentina’s hard currency peg to the US Dollar, pro-cyclical fiscal policies and extensive foreign borrowing" If you're going claim a coming currency crisis, test that assumption against the historical record at your earliest convenience.

beambot 5y ago
GP agrees with you: They're saying the currency crisis starting in Asia is USD-denominated (the international bonds in particular), which is creating a positive feedback loop when USD-RMB exchange rates spike. They're saying you might see this manifest as big movements in bond redemptions or sales as people scramble to secure USD.
- riggins 5y ago
  I assume you mean OP? > The entire world (including the US federal government) has taken a short position on the US dollar I read this as a prediction of some type of crisis. Anyway, wrt the US Federal Government, having government debt is not that same as having a short position. For one, the US Fed govt's revenue (i.e. tax collection) is denominated in the same USD as the debt. So if USD goes up, tax collection go up.
  - rsync 5y ago
    "I read this as a prediction of some type of crisis." I think your parent was suggesting that the behavior of the entire world is effectively a short-dollar position - whether they intended it to be or not.

SilasX 5y ago

And yet, a 1.56% yield for ten years (below its 18 month high) while inflation just hit 5.4%[0] doesn’t feel like a big selloff. [0] or 6.2 or whatever depending on what version you use.

hogFeast 5y ago

Chinese state banks have substantial dollar deposits (it is largely state banks that are lending to companies like Evergrande offshore). The PBOC stopped issuing notes (and sterilising the dollar inflow) years ago, and onshore dollar deposits are above $1tn. A lot of the stuff you read about this online is exceptionally misleading (I have no idea why there is this cottage industry of "economic experts" who don't understand economics...it is parallel to the gold bug industry, it is very weird).

knowmylimits 5y ago
What do you mean that they stopped issuing notes. China expands their money supply almost as much by percentage compared to the US.
- hogFeast 5y ago
  Domestic banks were not allowed to hold USD deposits (because that would have meant export earnings leaked into the Chinese money supply and the RMB would have risen), so when an exporter deposited earnings with them, they would take the dollars to the PBOC who would issue them with an interest-bearing note. Around 2017/18, the PBOC stopped doing this and allowed domestic banks to retain and invest the dollar earnings that exporters deposited. China's money supply is not directly related to the US money supply. China's capital account is still closed. All that has changed is that the onshore dollar market has increased (the PBOC retains a huge amount of control over lending decisions, Chinese state banks are not investing in US markets, it is being retained in China).

SubiculumCode 5y ago

Breaking the Ichimoku cloud!

JamisonM 5y ago

Absolutely crazy that the top comment on this story is a "USD short squeeze" idea after 5 hours. These amounts, 200 million, 150 million USD.. this is peanuts, a fart in the wind. PROTIP: Anyone like Lyn Alden that is offering premium stock tips is by definition a fraud, if you can beat the markets you just beat the markets and Scrooge McDuck-it, you don't run a damn newsletter.

hndamien 5y ago
It really isn't hard to beat the markets, just buy Bitcoin.
- blippage 5y ago
  This investing tip from UK fund manager Terry Smith: it's easy to beat the market, just buy every company in the index except for the airlines.
dannyw 5y ago
Nearly every single financial company (including JPM, Morgan Stanley, etc) offer premium stock tips through there analysts... Lyn Alden's site is a wealth of knowledge but I don't subscribe to any newsletters.
- tcgv 5y ago
  > Nearly every single financial company (including JPM, Morgan Stanley, etc) offer premium stock tips through there analysts... Well, they're expected to do that to maintain their stature as the "lighthouses" of the financial system
  - arcticbull 5y ago
    Not to mention, are they really doing it in good faith? Back in the GFC days, Goldman made headlines for just trading against their clients. Rather, I guess, for saying the quiet part out loud. > Thomas Mazarakis, who heads Goldman’s fundamental strategies group, told select clients in an email that his unit often provided investment ideas that the firm had already traded on and the firm sometimes took the opposite approach, betting against particular instruments recommended by the group, the Times said. > “We may trade, and may have existing positions, based on trading ideas before we have discussed those trading ideas with you,” the paper quoted Mazarakis as writing in the email. [1] Would seem a good way to monetize your audience is to (a) get paid to (b) take positions and then (c) control the narrative around your positions - both publicly and to paying customers to gin the position up. [1] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-goldmansachs-trades/goldman-exec-says-firm-gained-from-trading-against-clients-idUSTRE60C17220100113 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-goldmansachs-trades/goldm...

TheCoelacanth 5y ago

How can the "entire world" have a short position on USD? Who is taking the other side of the position? Is there someone outside of the world lending out money?