7 ms·

But that's just it, there's less than a 2% chance of dying even if you get COVID.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
s_dev 5y ago
A 2% chance of death is actually very high risk for most people. Obviously with a name like dontcare007 I'm sure you've a huge appetite for risk that others don't.
- bena 5y ago
  If 2% of domestic flights in the US crashed, that would be about 100 plane crashes. Per day. An accident rate of less than 1% grounded the Boeing 737 MAX. In a study of the aircraft, the FAA estimated there would have been 15 crashes over 30 years. This was seen as unacceptable.
- tinco 5y ago
  There's a 40% chance Mr. Bond here would have died before his latest film "No Time To Die", if he had a 2% chance of death in each movie ;)
adrianN 5y ago
There is a much higher chance of dying when you're in the ICU with Covid and a doctor thinks it's appropriate to prescribe this new medication.
- makomk 5y ago
  The trouble is that the new medications probably don't work by the time you're in the ICU with Covid. I'm not sure it was tested with this one specifically, but at least one of the recently-approved medications was previously trialled on ICU patients and showed no benefit - they had to do another study giving it to people who hadn't been hospitalized yet to get any useful reduction in deaths, and there's some reason to think this is an inherent limitation of drugs that try and reduce viral replication. This study only seems to cover patients who haven't been hospitalized at the point when they start the treatment.
brokensegue 5y ago
The hospitalization rate of the control was over 6 percent. Most people want to avoid hospitalization.
TheHypnotist 5y ago
I don't think you realize just how shitty those chances are.
- bena 5y ago
  The same people who take their chances with COVID have the same energy as those who play the lottery.
jasondigitized 5y ago
Statistically you won't die from Covid but that statistic may not apply to you.
timr 5y ago
It's much higher than that for easily identifiable subgroups -- elderly people and obese people being trivial examples. The control arm of this study had a rate of "hospitalization or death" of 7% because they selected for subgroups at high risk. It's fine to acknowledge that aggregate risk of Covid is low (and indeed, more people should acknowledge that fact), but we must also acknowledge that it is a serious risk for a large group of people.
- SketchySeaBeast 5y ago
  Especially when we note that the clinic definition of obesity is much smaller than people think of, and 42% of Americans qualify.
  - timr 5y ago
    That may be true, but it doesn't automatically mean that 42% of Americans are high risk. This is reflected in the aggregate statistics. Mild obesity is probably not a significant risk factor, whereas severe obesity is a big problem. The BMI-based definition of "obesity" is a crude qualifier, and the vast majority of the affected will be in the smaller group that is both elderly and obese (esp. considering that age is, by far, the more important factor for serious outcomes.)
AndrewThrowaway 5y ago
That's the problem - "even if you get COVID". At the start of pandemic we could have hoped that it will pass in half a year, in a year or so. Now we know that it is probably here to stay. So eventually you will get COVID. Depending on how long has passed after your vaccine, what variation of virus you will get, how old you are and etc will depend if it is more like 5% or 1% or so. In my office I have 200 or so colleagues. Imagine having 4-5 funerals at the company because of this illness.
- timr 5y ago
  > Depending on how long has passed after your vaccine, what variation of virus you will get, how old you are and etc will depend if it is more like 5% or 1% or so. This is fear-mongering. There is no example of a risk of death post-vaccination that gets this high. The few studies that document a decline in efficacy show a modest decline, against symptomatic illness. The vaccines remain highly effective against severe disease and death.
  - seniorThrowaway 5y ago
    https://archive.ph/5LWlK https://archive.ph/5LWlK
    - roywiggins 5y ago
      Those statistics say nothing about the chances of going to hospital if you are vaccinated. Currently, the deaths-per-100k of the unvaccinated vs vaccinated population is twelve times higher. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/10/28/us/covid-breakthrough-cases.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/10/28/us/covid-brea...
      - angelzen 5y ago
        The article also shows that deaths-per-100k is highly dependent on age. "“Age is our top risk factor for vaccine breakthrough deaths,” said Theresa Sokol, the state epidemiologist in Louisiana, one of the jurisdictions that contributed to the C.D.C. data.". In 12-17 and 18-29, deaths-per-100k are essentially 0 for both vaccinated and unvaccinated. This is fantastic news for kids of grade school age: they can live their lives for the next 20 years without having to worry about covid medical risks.
rndgermandude 5y ago
If you die of Covid, your loved ones will not care if the chance of that happening was low. You won't care either, you'll be dead. All it really takes is that one previously-undiagnosed comorbidity to put you in the front of a the line for a casket-fitting even if you're young(-ish). If you survive but get permanent damage e.g. due to the blood clots that a lot of COVID patients develop, or due to the side effects of medications and treatment e.g. (partial) blindness from high-dose steroids or reduced mobility up to no use in your limbs especially your legs due to ECMO, then I am pretty sure you won't be running around (in the latter example because you physically cannot anymore) telling people how COVID only kills so-and-so tiny percent of the population. Even if you escape realtively unscathed, spending a month or two in the hospital followed by some weeks of recovery or in a rehab facility (e.g. to learn how to walk again after a few weeks of coma and maybe some ECMO hoses in your legs), then that probably still would be an experience you'd like to avoid. And that isn't even yet considering what effects you may experience in the future, "long covid" and all that.
- sgtnoodle 5y ago
  My teenage athlete nephew mysteriously developed heart problems right around after he got vaccinated, and now he can barely walk up a flight of stairs. No one is going to say the vaccine caused it, but the timing seems pretty damning. Meanwhile, if you look at the CDC stats, the risk of injury from covid for his demographic is at least an order of magnitude lower than his risk from riding in a car. Personally I don't believe that we are living in a rational society right now. For the fun of it, maybe I'll figure out one of those browser plugins to replace the word "science" with "propaganda".
  - zamfi 5y ago
    > Meanwhile, if you look at the CDC stats, the risk of injury from covid for his demographic is at least an order of magnitude lower than his risk from riding in a car You have to look at the CDC stats and the vehicle fatalities to make this claim. "Risk from riding in a car" is extremely low. 0.008% of teens die annually (2400 out of 30 million, age 13-19) in car accidents. Case fatality rates from COVID are an order of magnitude higher for that age group -- 0.04-0.06%, depending on your source -- so you'd have to believe case underreporting by 100x (impossible, since cases are > 1% of population everywhere) in order for risk from "riding in a car" to be "at least an order of magnitude" higher.
hehetrthrthrjn 5y ago
You're ok with a 1 in 50 chance of dying? I know that people can have difficulty interpreting probabilities, but given the outcome, you don't think those are really terrible odds? Of course the medicine also has a risk profile but it's clearly much, much lower. Also it should noted that even when covid doesn't kill you it can have debilitating effects that linger or are permanent.
wonderwonder 5y ago
Would you get on a plane if there was a 1.5% chance of it crashing every time?
nradov 5y ago
According to the CDC, the actual infection fatality ratio is 0.6%. Fortunately vaccination cuts that pretty close to zero. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...
- ghastmaster 5y ago
  > Fortunately vaccination cuts that pretty close to zero. Unfortunately as can be seen in table 5 from the link below, vaccination does not bring the fatality rate close to zero. It brings it closer to zero depending on your age. Bearing in mind this applies to hospitalized patients only(therefore not exactly IFR), the rate of death was reduced by vaccination in people over the age of 50, but not in people under the age of 50. Vaccination helps in certain cohorts. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1018547/Technical_Briefing_23_21_09_16.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...
throwaway47292 5y ago
There is free trial of World of Warcraft, download the game and make a warrior character. You start with 5% critical strike chance, see how often that happens. You will be seriously surprised.
reddog 5y ago
2% is pretty damn high. Only 2.4% of allied troop that landed in France on D-Day died also.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

A 2% chance of death is actually very high risk for most people. Obviously with a name like dontcare007 I'm sure you've a huge appetite for risk that others don't.

bena 5y ago
If 2% of domestic flights in the US crashed, that would be about 100 plane crashes. Per day. An accident rate of less than 1% grounded the Boeing 737 MAX. In a study of the aircraft, the FAA estimated there would have been 15 crashes over 30 years. This was seen as unacceptable.
tinco 5y ago
There's a 40% chance Mr. Bond here would have died before his latest film "No Time To Die", if he had a 2% chance of death in each movie ;)

adrianN 5y ago

There is a much higher chance of dying when you're in the ICU with Covid and a doctor thinks it's appropriate to prescribe this new medication.

makomk 5y ago
The trouble is that the new medications probably don't work by the time you're in the ICU with Covid. I'm not sure it was tested with this one specifically, but at least one of the recently-approved medications was previously trialled on ICU patients and showed no benefit - they had to do another study giving it to people who hadn't been hospitalized yet to get any useful reduction in deaths, and there's some reason to think this is an inherent limitation of drugs that try and reduce viral replication. This study only seems to cover patients who haven't been hospitalized at the point when they start the treatment.

brokensegue 5y ago

The hospitalization rate of the control was over 6 percent. Most people want to avoid hospitalization.

TheHypnotist 5y ago

I don't think you realize just how shitty those chances are.

bena 5y ago
The same people who take their chances with COVID have the same energy as those who play the lottery.

jasondigitized 5y ago

Statistically you won't die from Covid but that statistic may not apply to you.

timr 5y ago

It's much higher than that for easily identifiable subgroups -- elderly people and obese people being trivial examples. The control arm of this study had a rate of "hospitalization or death" of 7% because they selected for subgroups at high risk. It's fine to acknowledge that aggregate risk of Covid is low (and indeed, more people should acknowledge that fact), but we must also acknowledge that it is a serious risk for a large group of people.

SketchySeaBeast 5y ago
Especially when we note that the clinic definition of obesity is much smaller than people think of, and 42% of Americans qualify.
- timr 5y ago
  That may be true, but it doesn't automatically mean that 42% of Americans are high risk. This is reflected in the aggregate statistics. Mild obesity is probably not a significant risk factor, whereas severe obesity is a big problem. The BMI-based definition of "obesity" is a crude qualifier, and the vast majority of the affected will be in the smaller group that is both elderly and obese (esp. considering that age is, by far, the more important factor for serious outcomes.)

AndrewThrowaway 5y ago

That's the problem - "even if you get COVID". At the start of pandemic we could have hoped that it will pass in half a year, in a year or so. Now we know that it is probably here to stay. So eventually you will get COVID. Depending on how long has passed after your vaccine, what variation of virus you will get, how old you are and etc will depend if it is more like 5% or 1% or so. In my office I have 200 or so colleagues. Imagine having 4-5 funerals at the company because of this illness.

timr 5y ago
> Depending on how long has passed after your vaccine, what variation of virus you will get, how old you are and etc will depend if it is more like 5% or 1% or so. This is fear-mongering. There is no example of a risk of death post-vaccination that gets this high. The few studies that document a decline in efficacy show a modest decline, against symptomatic illness. The vaccines remain highly effective against severe disease and death.
- seniorThrowaway 5y ago
  https://archive.ph/5LWlK https://archive.ph/5LWlK
  - roywiggins 5y ago
    Those statistics say nothing about the chances of going to hospital if you are vaccinated. Currently, the deaths-per-100k of the unvaccinated vs vaccinated population is twelve times higher. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/10/28/us/covid-breakthrough-cases.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/10/28/us/covid-brea...
    - angelzen 5y ago
      The article also shows that deaths-per-100k is highly dependent on age. "“Age is our top risk factor for vaccine breakthrough deaths,” said Theresa Sokol, the state epidemiologist in Louisiana, one of the jurisdictions that contributed to the C.D.C. data.". In 12-17 and 18-29, deaths-per-100k are essentially 0 for both vaccinated and unvaccinated. This is fantastic news for kids of grade school age: they can live their lives for the next 20 years without having to worry about covid medical risks.

rndgermandude 5y ago

If you die of Covid, your loved ones will not care if the chance of that happening was low. You won't care either, you'll be dead. All it really takes is that one previously-undiagnosed comorbidity to put you in the front of a the line for a casket-fitting even if you're young(-ish). If you survive but get permanent damage e.g. due to the blood clots that a lot of COVID patients develop, or due to the side effects of medications and treatment e.g. (partial) blindness from high-dose steroids or reduced mobility up to no use in your limbs especially your legs due to ECMO, then I am pretty sure you won't be running around (in the latter example because you physically cannot anymore) telling people how COVID only kills so-and-so tiny percent of the population. Even if you escape realtively unscathed, spending a month or two in the hospital followed by some weeks of recovery or in a rehab facility (e.g. to learn how to walk again after a few weeks of coma and maybe some ECMO hoses in your legs), then that probably still would be an experience you'd like to avoid. And that isn't even yet considering what effects you may experience in the future, "long covid" and all that.

sgtnoodle 5y ago
My teenage athlete nephew mysteriously developed heart problems right around after he got vaccinated, and now he can barely walk up a flight of stairs. No one is going to say the vaccine caused it, but the timing seems pretty damning. Meanwhile, if you look at the CDC stats, the risk of injury from covid for his demographic is at least an order of magnitude lower than his risk from riding in a car. Personally I don't believe that we are living in a rational society right now. For the fun of it, maybe I'll figure out one of those browser plugins to replace the word "science" with "propaganda".
- zamfi 5y ago
  > Meanwhile, if you look at the CDC stats, the risk of injury from covid for his demographic is at least an order of magnitude lower than his risk from riding in a car You have to look at the CDC stats and the vehicle fatalities to make this claim. "Risk from riding in a car" is extremely low. 0.008% of teens die annually (2400 out of 30 million, age 13-19) in car accidents. Case fatality rates from COVID are an order of magnitude higher for that age group -- 0.04-0.06%, depending on your source -- so you'd have to believe case underreporting by 100x (impossible, since cases are > 1% of population everywhere) in order for risk from "riding in a car" to be "at least an order of magnitude" higher.

hehetrthrthrjn 5y ago

You're ok with a 1 in 50 chance of dying? I know that people can have difficulty interpreting probabilities, but given the outcome, you don't think those are really terrible odds? Of course the medicine also has a risk profile but it's clearly much, much lower. Also it should noted that even when covid doesn't kill you it can have debilitating effects that linger or are permanent.

wonderwonder 5y ago

Would you get on a plane if there was a 1.5% chance of it crashing every time?

nradov 5y ago

According to the CDC, the actual infection fatality ratio is 0.6%. Fortunately vaccination cuts that pretty close to zero. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...

ghastmaster 5y ago
> Fortunately vaccination cuts that pretty close to zero. Unfortunately as can be seen in table 5 from the link below, vaccination does not bring the fatality rate close to zero. It brings it closer to zero depending on your age. Bearing in mind this applies to hospitalized patients only(therefore not exactly IFR), the rate of death was reduced by vaccination in people over the age of 50, but not in people under the age of 50. Vaccination helps in certain cohorts. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1018547/Technical_Briefing_23_21_09_16.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...

throwaway47292 5y ago

There is free trial of World of Warcraft, download the game and make a warrior character. You start with 5% critical strike chance, see how often that happens. You will be seriously surprised.

reddog 5y ago

2% is pretty damn high. Only 2.4% of allied troop that landed in France on D-Day died also.