5 ms·

Side effects from vaccines almost always occur within a few weeks of getting them, if they occur at all. It would be exceptional if side effects occurred months

by alecst 5y ago

Side effects from vaccines almost always occur within a few weeks of getting them, if they occur at all. It would be exceptional if side effects occurred months or years down the line. It’s obviously not impossible and I don’t want to give the impression that I think it is, but it’s just not considered a likely outcome. Plus, anyways, we know that SARS-CoV-2 is far more dangerous in both the long and short term.

OrvalWintermute 5y ago
Dangerous? I think you need to be a great deal more specific than that, since the risk tranches of Covid-19 are highly variables based on obesity, comorbidities, and age. At a very young age, mortality from vaccine side effects (~200 to ~700 peri/myocarditis per 1M) is greater than mortality from covid itself (1 per 1M for a healthy young male no comorbidities 18 yo not obese), depending on comorbidities. This violates do no harm.
- jalk 5y ago
  > At a very young age, mortality from vaccine side effects (~200 to ~700 peri/myocarditis per 1M) is greater than mortality from covid itself Do you have a source for that number? All I have seen indicate that the cases are mild to intermediate, but no actual deaths directly linked to myocarditis.
  - angelzen 5y ago
    Pfizer's 5-11 covid vaccine FDA application estimates a bunch of numbers that roughly match the OP numbers in Table 14, page 34. Though we should not confuse myocarditis in boys 200/M with myocarditis mortality, which is 0. And, of course, grain of salt for Pfizer estimation, probably the real numbers could be marginally worse. https://www.fda.gov/media/153447/download https://www.fda.gov/media/153447/download
    - OrvalWintermute 5y ago
      > Post-EUA safety surveillance reports received by FDA and CDC identified increased risks of myocarditis and pericarditis, particularly within 7 days following administration of the second dose of the 2-dose primary series. Reporting rates for medical chart-confirmed myocarditis and pericarditis in VAERS have been higher among males under 40 years of age than among females and older males and have been highest in males 12 through 17 years of age (~71.5 cases per million second primary series doses among males age 16-17 years and 42.6 cases per million second primary series doses among males age 12-15 years as per CDC presentation to the ACIP on August 30, 2021). * In an FDA analysis of the Optum healthcare claims database, the estimated excess risk of myocarditis/pericarditis approached 200 cases per million fully vaccinated males 16-17 years of age and 180 cases per million fully vaccinated males 12-15 years of age * .44 Although some cases of vaccine-associated myocarditis/pericarditis have required intensive care support, available data from short-term follow-up suggest that most individuals have had resolution of symptoms with conservative management. Information is not yet available about potential long-term sequelae and outcomes in affected individuals, or whether the vaccine might be associated initially with subclinical myocarditis (and if so, what are the long-term sequelae). A mechanism of action by which the vaccine could cause myocarditis and pericarditis has not been established. Myocarditis and pericarditis were added as important identified risks in the PVP and included in the Warnings sections of the vaccine Fact Sheets and Prescribing Information. The Sponsor is conducting additional post-authorization/post-marketing studies to assess known serious risks of myocarditis and pericarditis as well as to identify an unexpected serious risk of subclinical myocarditis. I pulled out the text from your link which is the applicable text with most apropos italicized Given what we know thus far I think it is consistent with the research to say that this is likewise, potentially caused by intravenous injection of the vaccine, rather than intramuscular as properly indicated. This is also partially caused by modern vaccine procedures which rarely involve aspiration, therefore, the medical provider has no clear indication of whether or not they are injecting into muscle or veins. As someone that considers himself vaccine-hesistant, I consider this to be a big potential victory in addressing arguably one of the most concerning side effects with mRNA based vaccines, and reducing my concern level if I am required to get the vaccine.
  - OrvalWintermute 5y ago
    Hi The source for that is a number of studies I have read, and that is why I am using such a huge range. For example, the numbers in [1] are quite bleak from a % basis, more so than other studies. On the other hand, myo/pericarditis are known side effects of vaccination in general. In general I don't think that dissuades us, because the rates are usually low. Not in this case though. Fortunately, I believe some researchers have already identified a partial cause, that being intravenous injection of the vaccines rather than intramuscular [2], and related [3] [1] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34341797/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34341797/ [2] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34406358/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34406358/ [3] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34453510/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34453510/
    - mewpmewp2 5y ago
      If aspiration is such an obvious solution why isn't this information immediately broadcasted to all the doctors and nurses, as many of these are still mind boggled when you ask for aspiration?
- dekhn 5y ago
  you completely misunderstand the concept of "do no harm" (which in itself wasn't a particularly good concept). I'm not even going to comment on your claims about mortality rates for vaccine in young people.
jinpa_zangpo 5y ago
In the 50's 10-30% of the polio vaccine was contaminated with Simian Virus 40 (SV40), a virus shown to cause cancer in animals. There was much concern that the contamination would lead to increased cancer risk in humans, though results from studies were mixed. I believe this meets the definition of long term damage from vaccines.
didjathinkmess 5y ago
You're comparing mRNA vaccines to traditional vaccines. Unlikely outcome sure. So is getting autism from a traditional vaccine but the warning still appears on the MMR vaccine insert.
native_samples 5y ago
"It would be exceptional if side effects occurred months or years down the line" If you dig into the sources of such claims, you find they're unfortunately based on circular logic. As is so often in the case in public health. Specifically, circular logic of the form "we can't prove beyond doubt a nasty thing that happened ~3 weeks later was due to the vaccine and we're not inclined to look, so it won't be reported as an AE, therefore there are no AEs after that point, therefore it's exceptional for vaccines to cause long term injuries, therefore we won't blame vaccines for anything happening after 3 weeks because it doesn't happen". Except in the case of the COVID vaccines a few weeks became 7 days. Literally any event that happened after 7 days was considered not vaccine related in the trials. That's not very long especially given the nature of heart damage. Also, you have to distinguish between side effects happening, and side effects being recognized by public health. It took five years for the system to accept that Pandemrix had maimed teenagers (to protect them from Swine Flu, a disease so mild everyone had forgotten about it by the time this fact was recognized). It also took lawsuits and a very slow moving process to even get the pharma firms to cough up the data showing they knew about the problem much earlier. Finally, actually, no, we don't know that SARS-CoV-2 is much more dangerous. The data and science quality on this topic is so poor that almost nothing can be said for certain except at the extremes.
unanswered 5y ago
> Side effects from vaccines almost always occur within a few weeks of getting them, if they occur at all. According to what? Studies where control groups were eliminated after a few weeks?
- mewpmewp2 5y ago
  Many anecdotal reports coming in where people start experiencing side effects 3+ weeks after the vaccine. But anyway, of course you can't link any of this back to the vaccine. Especially without control group.

by alecst 5y ago

OrvalWintermute 5y ago

Dangerous? I think you need to be a great deal more specific than that, since the risk tranches of Covid-19 are highly variables based on obesity, comorbidities, and age. At a very young age, mortality from vaccine side effects (~200 to ~700 peri/myocarditis per 1M) is greater than mortality from covid itself (1 per 1M for a healthy young male no comorbidities 18 yo not obese), depending on comorbidities. This violates do no harm.

jalk 5y ago
> At a very young age, mortality from vaccine side effects (~200 to ~700 peri/myocarditis per 1M) is greater than mortality from covid itself Do you have a source for that number? All I have seen indicate that the cases are mild to intermediate, but no actual deaths directly linked to myocarditis.
- angelzen 5y ago
  Pfizer's 5-11 covid vaccine FDA application estimates a bunch of numbers that roughly match the OP numbers in Table 14, page 34. Though we should not confuse myocarditis in boys 200/M with myocarditis mortality, which is 0. And, of course, grain of salt for Pfizer estimation, probably the real numbers could be marginally worse. https://www.fda.gov/media/153447/download https://www.fda.gov/media/153447/download
  - OrvalWintermute 5y ago
    > Post-EUA safety surveillance reports received by FDA and CDC identified increased risks of myocarditis and pericarditis, particularly within 7 days following administration of the second dose of the 2-dose primary series. Reporting rates for medical chart-confirmed myocarditis and pericarditis in VAERS have been higher among males under 40 years of age than among females and older males and have been highest in males 12 through 17 years of age (~71.5 cases per million second primary series doses among males age 16-17 years and 42.6 cases per million second primary series doses among males age 12-15 years as per CDC presentation to the ACIP on August 30, 2021). * In an FDA analysis of the Optum healthcare claims database, the estimated excess risk of myocarditis/pericarditis approached 200 cases per million fully vaccinated males 16-17 years of age and 180 cases per million fully vaccinated males 12-15 years of age * .44 Although some cases of vaccine-associated myocarditis/pericarditis have required intensive care support, available data from short-term follow-up suggest that most individuals have had resolution of symptoms with conservative management. Information is not yet available about potential long-term sequelae and outcomes in affected individuals, or whether the vaccine might be associated initially with subclinical myocarditis (and if so, what are the long-term sequelae). A mechanism of action by which the vaccine could cause myocarditis and pericarditis has not been established. Myocarditis and pericarditis were added as important identified risks in the PVP and included in the Warnings sections of the vaccine Fact Sheets and Prescribing Information. The Sponsor is conducting additional post-authorization/post-marketing studies to assess known serious risks of myocarditis and pericarditis as well as to identify an unexpected serious risk of subclinical myocarditis. I pulled out the text from your link which is the applicable text with most apropos italicized Given what we know thus far I think it is consistent with the research to say that this is likewise, potentially caused by intravenous injection of the vaccine, rather than intramuscular as properly indicated. This is also partially caused by modern vaccine procedures which rarely involve aspiration, therefore, the medical provider has no clear indication of whether or not they are injecting into muscle or veins. As someone that considers himself vaccine-hesistant, I consider this to be a big potential victory in addressing arguably one of the most concerning side effects with mRNA based vaccines, and reducing my concern level if I am required to get the vaccine.
- OrvalWintermute 5y ago
  Hi The source for that is a number of studies I have read, and that is why I am using such a huge range. For example, the numbers in [1] are quite bleak from a % basis, more so than other studies. On the other hand, myo/pericarditis are known side effects of vaccination in general. In general I don't think that dissuades us, because the rates are usually low. Not in this case though. Fortunately, I believe some researchers have already identified a partial cause, that being intravenous injection of the vaccines rather than intramuscular [2], and related [3] [1] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34341797/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34341797/ [2] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34406358/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34406358/ [3] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34453510/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34453510/
  - mewpmewp2 5y ago
    If aspiration is such an obvious solution why isn't this information immediately broadcasted to all the doctors and nurses, as many of these are still mind boggled when you ask for aspiration?
dekhn 5y ago
you completely misunderstand the concept of "do no harm" (which in itself wasn't a particularly good concept). I'm not even going to comment on your claims about mortality rates for vaccine in young people.

jinpa_zangpo 5y ago

In the 50's 10-30% of the polio vaccine was contaminated with Simian Virus 40 (SV40), a virus shown to cause cancer in animals. There was much concern that the contamination would lead to increased cancer risk in humans, though results from studies were mixed. I believe this meets the definition of long term damage from vaccines.

didjathinkmess 5y ago

You're comparing mRNA vaccines to traditional vaccines. Unlikely outcome sure. So is getting autism from a traditional vaccine but the warning still appears on the MMR vaccine insert.

native_samples 5y ago

"It would be exceptional if side effects occurred months or years down the line" If you dig into the sources of such claims, you find they're unfortunately based on circular logic. As is so often in the case in public health. Specifically, circular logic of the form "we can't prove beyond doubt a nasty thing that happened ~3 weeks later was due to the vaccine and we're not inclined to look, so it won't be reported as an AE, therefore there are no AEs after that point, therefore it's exceptional for vaccines to cause long term injuries, therefore we won't blame vaccines for anything happening after 3 weeks because it doesn't happen". Except in the case of the COVID vaccines a few weeks became 7 days. Literally any event that happened after 7 days was considered not vaccine related in the trials. That's not very long especially given the nature of heart damage. Also, you have to distinguish between side effects happening, and side effects being recognized by public health. It took five years for the system to accept that Pandemrix had maimed teenagers (to protect them from Swine Flu, a disease so mild everyone had forgotten about it by the time this fact was recognized). It also took lawsuits and a very slow moving process to even get the pharma firms to cough up the data showing they knew about the problem much earlier. Finally, actually, no, we don't know that SARS-CoV-2 is much more dangerous. The data and science quality on this topic is so poor that almost nothing can be said for certain except at the extremes.

unanswered 5y ago

> Side effects from vaccines almost always occur within a few weeks of getting them, if they occur at all. According to what? Studies where control groups were eliminated after a few weeks?

mewpmewp2 5y ago
Many anecdotal reports coming in where people start experiencing side effects 3+ weeks after the vaccine. But anyway, of course you can't link any of this back to the vaccine. Especially without control group.