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The stock market hates HP's new strategy
- j_col 15y agoNot supprising, as on the face of it, it looks like utter madness.
- RexRollman 15y agoThe stock market's reaction is understandable to me. This is a big change in what HP does and it's going to take a long time for this to play out.
- notatoad 15y agothe market always hates big risky decisions. it isn't any indicator of whether it is a good choice or not.
- truthout 15y agoUmm.. Yes it is. The market thinks it's a bad decision. If you disagree, buy the stock. A stock doesn't drop 20% for no reason. Overpaying for a software company and dropping webos, tr maker thinks it's a BAD decision. If you think otherwise buy the stock and profit.
- artsrc 15y agoIf this was accurate then there is a strategy of buying every company that makes big risky decisions. If the market always hates them, but in general some are good then this strategy will win. Of course few simple strategies are good so this one probably is not either.
- deleted 15y ago[deleted]
- dblock 15y agoDo look at what the rest of the market is doing! So the market doesn't specifically hate HP that much, maybe a couple %.
- wwkeyboard 15y agoDose the stock market reflect real investors(by 'real' I mean people looking at where the company will be in a few years and planning to hold an investment for that length of time)? I wonder how much of this is an institution selling enough shares to change a metric and trigger a bunch of algorithms.
- rkalla 15y agoI think a lot of it has to do with how the decision was... presented? 1. HP tablet sales fail. 2. HP warns of low earnings, then announces them. 3. Promise to make announcement only after market closes on the 18th. 4. Rumors that they are spinning Compaq back out. 5. Changes mind and makes announcement. 6. They are buying Autonomy (enterprise/IBM space) 7. They are shooting the mobile device effort in the face. That is... a lot of change to suddenly announce, especially given that the Palm/WebOS aqusition[1] not more than a year ago was the big new vision for the company. They made one product and couldn't sell it[2] and pulled the plug on the entire vision while at the same time announcing a huge corporate shift. Busy day for HP. [1] http://www.engadget.com/2010/04/28/hp-buys-palm/ http://www.engadget.com/2010/04/28/hp-buys-palm/ [2] http://allthingsd.com/20110816/ouchpad-best-buy-sitting-on-a-pile-of-unsold-hp-tablets/ http://allthingsd.com/20110816/ouchpad-best-buy-sitting-on-a...
- camiller 15y agoRealize that a different CEO was in charge at HP when the acquisition of Palm occurred and the new CEO came from an enterprise software company (SAP) and seems intent on turning HP into a company he knows how to run, rather than running HP as the company it is. Someone (maybe at precentral.com) likened it to when a sports team gets a new coach he recruits players for his style of game instead of building with the talent at hand, AKA "a rebuilding year". I really, really hope they license WebOS to a good phone manufacture, The only real problem with the touchpad was underpowered hardware. I read somewhere that they got WebOS running once on iPad hardware for testing purposes and it rocked. WebOS on a dual core tablet has the potential to be really cool.
- arthurschreiber 15y agoThe thing is, the Touchpad already had a dual core cpu built in. I can't really imagine that HP has put the effort of completely porting webos over to a different hardware platform, but I think that instead they might have tested the enyo toolkit on the iPad and have seen tremendous performance improvements. Those, I think, can be attributed to the superiority of MobileSafari (having hardware acceleration and having a very fast Javascript VM being the primary sources of better performance).
- aresant 15y agoBarron's nails it: a) "decision to cease all webOS devices (including the TouchPad) a mere 48 days after the launch" - Leadership doesn't know what they're doing w/acquisitions. b) "expensive acquisition of Autonomy" - $10b to jump into a new market via acquisition which we just proved we're not good at. c) "material layoffs" and "talent drain over the next 12-24 months' - I believe this. Current talent bails. Changing focus means new recruiting, years of training / efficiency building. As a shareholder, ouch. via: http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2011/08/19/hp-drops-19-six-downgrades-autonomy-bid-massively-expensive/?mod=BOLBlog http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2011/08/19/hp-drops...
- gacba 15y agoYou forgot the "we're refocusing ourselves to our core competency as a software company". HP hasn't had competent software for years since HPUX and even then, it's questionable. They are a hardware/printer company so this is going to be a painful transition for them.
- misterbwong 15y agoUnfortunately in the enterprise space, competent software isn't necessarily a requirement.
- hello_moto 15y agoThat is changing, albeit slowly.
- cookiecaper 15y agoNot really. I doubt it will ever change. Why do you say it's changing? All the same BigCorp programmers I know remain employed...
- hello_moto 15y agoThe Java and .NET ecosystems seem to preach a better/agile way to develop software: Continuous Integration, unit-tests, keep it simple, etc. Sure, some of the code are still crappy, but at least they are less crappy than yesterday. Are all of BigCorp programmers doing this? No. Will they? maybe, especially with the newer/younger generations. Mobile and tables are making in-road to enterprise. Enterprise slowly decided to give cloud (SaaS, not the other *aas) a chance because they don't like to have in-house IT departments (whether this is good or bad I don't know). When you see BestBuy using Google AppEngine even for their simple app, I think that's a sign of change. Is it going to get better all across the board? probably no. But they're changing nonetheless.
- roedog 15y agoThe autonomy acquisition seems to be the sore point. The reduced forecasts also seem to be a factor.
- ansy 15y agoThis was perhaps a good plan delivered with the poorest tact. The reality distortion field seems to be working in reverse for Leo & Co. Moving toward an enterprise only strategy could make HP healthier and more profitable in the long run. It may even reap additional benefits from a consolidation of vision. The PSG offers less and less synergy with the rest of the company with each passing year. Especially if WebOS is dead, which everyone knew but nobody wanted to admit. The problem is HP could have kept webOS in zombie mode and discretely shopped around the company under the guise of licensing talks. Maybe HP already did that and its last option walked out the door. And the same with the PSG. HP could have kept that under wraps and saved the news until the transition was nearly complete. "By the way, PSG, the #1 PC maker in the world, is doing great and we think it will do even better as an autonomous company which will happen as soon as the SEC allows it starting from today." Instead HP delivered an abortion of bad news with little to no concern how it would be received. It's like Apotheker thought to himself, "this is clearly the best solution" and therefore it requires absolutely no explanation. Everyone should just "get it" like he does.
- truthout 15y agoIf you think you're right and the market is wrong, you should buy the stock. This is what makes a market. I you are right, you will make money. If you're wrong, you lose.
- justincormack 15y agoPersonally I think that big enterprise software and its sales model, as perfected by Oracle and SAP is dead long term, it will be killed by an on demand cloud products. HP maybe had a chance to get into this market eventually, and WebOS was part of his strategy. But instead they decided to chase last decades model which makes high margins in the short term. And why does no one want to try to compete with Apple?
- ansy 15y agoWhat? The cloud IS Oracle, IBM, SAP, and HP's future revenue model. They are going to build the cloud, build the enterprise cloud services, and bill out consultants specializing in the cloud. HP's future is nothing but the cloud moving forward. HP makes the servers that are the cloud. HP's business software will sit on its servers instead of yours. HP's consultants will charge you $$$ to tell you which services work for you, provision everything, configure it, do the integration, and host it for you in the cloud for a recurring monthly fee per user. WebOS has nothing to do with capitalizing on the cloud. It's just one of many clients to the cloud.
- jedwhite 15y agoApotheker is taking the pain upfront, and undoing the damage wrought by Fiorina and Hurd over the last decade. He only took over in November 2010, and had to take some time to look at the business, and give the WebOS launches a chance. But he's basically unwinding Fiorina's Compaq acquisition (as Michael Dell implied in his tweet yesterday), and Hurd's Palm/WebOS acquisition. HP used to have a core value of only being in businesses where it could be at the leading edge technologically. Tablets, smartphones and PCs are areas where it's been a copycat. Plus, Apotheker has likely identified as part of his review since starting (at the end of 2010) that consumer technologies aren't an area that it has a competitively differentiated core competence. [EDIT for typos/clarity]
- chollida1 15y agoTo be fair, they also missed on earnings. that's going to account for a fair bit of the drop as well.
- guelo 15y agoAnother MBA type killing a great tech company. I don't understand why it doesn't occur to these boards that engineers/technologists/innovators should lead tech companies. For some reason they can't imagine that technology can save a technology company. It wasn't some genius business maneuver that turned Apple into the biggest company in the world, it was genius technology.
- darksaga 15y agoThe main reason they hire MBA types instead of engineers is because the main purpose of the company is to make money. A lot of MBA's don't take a long view on technology for various reasons. Thus, when every product you make isn't shipping a million pieces a month, these guys get worried and make stupid moves. In HP's case, they made a succession of stupid moves. Apple does have genius technology, but you can't underestimate the influence of Steve Job's eye for design in the success of Apple products.
- guelo 15y agoI meant to include Steve Jobs when I referred to engineers/technologists/innovators
- alrs 15y agoSteve Jobs is not an engineer. "Technologist" is sufficiently squishy that I can't make an argument against it, but I can cite Stross in "Steve Jobs and the Next Big Thing." Stross has a good anecdote about how Jobs didn't know how to use an email client when he was running NeXT, and that he would have his secretary print everything out for him. http://www.amazon.com/Steve-Jobs-Next-Big-Thing/dp/0689121350/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1313792005&sr=8-1 http://www.amazon.com/Steve-Jobs-Next-Big-Thing/dp/068912135...
- pemulis 15y agoNot to discount the idea that tech companies should be run by innovators, but Apple wouldn't be one of the biggest companies in the world if not for its ingenious vertical integration, which ensures that competitors are always a year or more behind. A few famous examples include the way they temporarily monopolized the supply of a crucial type of flash memory for iPods, and still control the entire supply of certain touchscreen sizes for tablets. They provide the up-front capital to build factories in China to produce these new technologies in exchange for exclusivity. And after the exclusive period is over, Apple pays a discounted price, which means that their competitors actually subsidize Apple's products. There are plenty of other examples of operational genius within Apple along the same lines. Without those genius business maneuvers, they would probably be a successful company, but certainly not the biggest company in the US. The key thing is that this innovation in business ops is in the service of grand technological vision. Ops without vision dooms a company in the long term.
- Finnster 15y agoWhat does a company like HP usually do when they have thousands of unsold tablets like this? Take them back and throw them in a landfill or will there ever be a clearance sale?
- edw519 15y agoI said, "No, I'm never going to leave Hewlett-Packard. It's my job for life. It's the best company because it's so good to engineers." It really treated us like we were a community and family, and everyone cared about everyone else. Engineers—bottom of the org chart people—could come up with the ideas that would be the next hot products for the company. Everything was open to thought, discussion and innovation. So I would never leave Hewlett-Packard. I was going to be an engineer for life there. - Steve Wozniak, interviewed by Jessica Livingston in "Founders at Work" http://www.foundersatwork.com/steve-wozniak.html http://www.foundersatwork.com/steve-wozniak.html How sad that it's come to this.
- gamble 15y agoHP is so far from the founders' ethos that hearing people talk about the old days is like looking at pictures of Beirut before the civil war. I have friends who still work for HP, and it's an amazingly toxic environment with absolutely no concern for good engineering or quality products. I honestly think Fiorina and Hurd would have been delighted if they had the ability to fire every engineer in HP and outsource all product development to China.
- Daniel_Newby 15y agoMany of the good parts of the old HP were spun off into Agilent. http://www.home.agilent.com/ http://www.home.agilent.com/ Any Agilent people here who can say if it still follows the old HP spirit?
- tsotha 15y agoThe really interesting engineering that happened at HP was all spun off as Agilent in 1999. What's left is just your garden variety technology company that does a lot but doesn't seem to do any of it very well.
- jwn 15y agoThis graph is much more useful if you compare it against some other tech giants: http://www.google.com//finance?chdnp=0&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=Linear&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1313784000000&chddm=103615&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=NYSE:IBM;NASDAQ:DELL;NASDAQ:GOOG;NASDAQ:ORCL&cmptdms=0;0;0;0&q=NYSE:HPQ&ntsp=0 http://www.google.com//finance?chdnp=0&chdd=1&chds=1...
- Bo102010 15y agoI don't think the HP leaders will regret the change of focus to businesses instead of consumers. Every day we hear that businesses are sitting on increasingly huge piles of cash and that individuals are increasingly jobless. Then again, I'm not scooping up bargain HP shares, so my idle speculation isn't extremely compelling even to me.
- tluyben2 15y agoRehash to go for biz only, wait for Ellison to be in a mood, get bought, everybody happy. No?
- unohoo 15y agoI wonder if Nokia had approached / will approach HP to acquire WebOS. With Elop @ Nokia's realm, I am skeptical. RIM is too busy building its on OS to be really interested. Amazon, Intel and Samsung seem like very likely candidates to take WebOS off HP's hands.
- barake 15y agoNokia, RIM and Samsung seem pretty committed to their choice of OS. Rumors of Amazon tablets running Android keep surfacing but Amazon and Google are not exactly friends - Android is likely the least painful OS choice. They could buy WebOS and be free of Google and avoid developing their own OS from scratch. If you think about all the services Amazon offers they're basically just an OS and some hardware away from being a "full stack" iOS competitor.
- jinushaun 15y agoI still stand by my belief that Nokia should've bought WebOS.
- dstein 15y agoIt's surreal when I think back to between 2001 and 2005 I honestly thought the iPaq running Windows Mobile was going to be the future of computing. Microsoft and HP looked poised to dominate forever. ... and then nothing happened. Both HP and Microsoft turned out to have ZERO vision, and just decided to stop innovating, kicked back, and collect their big fat dividend checks. And now Apple is eating their lunch with two fists.
- johnohara 15y agoI installed ten (10) HP 3130 desktops two months ago for a local dental practice. No issues. Not one. Nice machine, fast, quiet, runs cool, plenty of space, 4GB, etc. The list price is $789.00 but they were purchased for about $599.00. At that price the margin can't be very much. My guess -- $150.00 But it takes a lot more energy and logistics to move 1MM desktop PC's than it does to move 1MM iPhones. If HP is getting out of this market (behind Dell and IBM) it must mean desktop PC's as we know them are dead.
- zandorg 15y ago[posted 35 days ago] I once attended a job fair/event at my University, and the guy from HP said (to a crowd) they have PROFITS of $80 billion a year. I didn't inform him that was REVENUE, I just walked out on him.
- protomyth 15y agoI do wonder, with the withdrawal from the PC market, will this affect the sales and placement of their printer lines or are they spinning those off too?
- paulocal 15y agoPutting in a buy order at $20
- oswiego 15y agoI really wish HP would stop chasing for a market and double down on the one they are good at. HP chased the hot and fresh tablet market. Flop. This move to a more enterprise serving model just looks like HP is chasing the cloud. You know what I want? I want a new HP calculator. I love my HP 50g, but it's about time for some innovation. It wouldn't even be too demanding on R&D (if that department even exists...), just strip down some of those tablets and sick'em in calculator body, make software and hardware hacker friendly. I don't think it is too much to ask for a calculator that is comparable in utility to a consumer level PC for mathematics processing.
- cubicle67 15y agoThis was in my email this morning Dear webOS developer: We have opened the next chapter for webOS, and we understand that you must have many questions. Yesterday we announced that we will focus on the future of webOS as a software platform but we will no longer be producing webOS devices. While this was a difficult decision, it's one that will strengthen our ability to focus on further innovating with webOS as we forge our path forward. Throughout this journey, our developers will continue to be a vital part of the future of webOS. I feel genuinely sorry for these people - the WebOS team within HP. I'm assuming they knew nothing until the news was made public, and it must hurt like hell to have to compose an email like this (and then have PR sanitise it)
- espeed 15y agoA few months ago HP acquired Vertica (http://www.vertica.com/resources/videos/ http://www.vertica.com/resources/videos/), which was founded by Mike Stonebraker (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Stonebraker http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Stonebraker), the inventor of PostgreSQL. Vertica is the real-time big data analytics system that Zynga is using -- it looks like HP is planning on making a push into that space.