11 ms·

At the rate we're going there will eventually be armed conflict in the western US over water. Large municipalities and maybe even the federal government need to

At the rate we're going there will eventually be armed conflict in the western US over water. Large municipalities and maybe even the federal government need to put together a plan to buy out farmers after we have to turn off their taps for good. Ground water will only go so far. At some point we will have to acknowledge that some areas are just never going to be sustainable for agriculture ever again.

thehappypm 5y ago
Or, in a more optimistic approach, the market will take over here. Private water delivery companies? Agricultural advances to use less water? Prices for water-hungry crops going up, shifting consumers to cheaper alternatives?
- nradov 5y ago
  The problem is that water rights are covered by State constitutions and statutes. Introducing markets would require changing those laws and seizing water rights. That might require making huge compensation payments to existing rights holders. Politically it's just extremely difficult. In general US agriculture is extremely wasteful of water. We could drastically cut water consumption by adopting farming techniques used in Israel, but food costs would increase.
  - cudgy 5y ago
    “That might require making huge compensation payments to existing rights holders.” I doubt most of the stakeholders paid anything for their water rights. Perhaps, if there is any compensation, it would be equal to what they paid for the actual rates originally inflation adjusted.
    - nradov 5y ago
      That's not how the law works. Acquisition price is irrelevant to 5th Amendment rights. Compensation must be based on current fair market value. You might consider that unfair but it's the reality of our laws today.
      - cudgy 5y ago
        Laws can be changed, especially when it comes to people’s survival.
      - curryst 5y ago
        The easy thing to do would be to tank the value of water rights first. Taxes seem like an obvious option. I can't think of any constitutional reasons why they can't tax you for drawing from natural springs, else all new taxes would be a constitutional issue. You may not even need to nationalize then. You might also be able to simply ban private consumption of water from waterways. Nothing is being seized, they still own the water, it's just worthless because they can't use it. Similar to what would happen if we ban coal. I don't think we'd have to go track down everyone with rights to a coal vein and pay them what it's worth.
- twobitshifter 5y ago
  The market is always too late in constraining resources often running counter to it. Higher prices for water will lead to more water being mined. High oil prices led to deep water drilling, fracking, and tar sands.
Diederich 5y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_water_wars https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_water_wars But yeah, it's going to get a lot worse.
- twiddling 5y ago
  and a plug into: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cadillac_Desert https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cadillac_Desert
newaccount2021 5y ago
Why? All you need to do to solve the water crisis is go to an online forum, say "desal!!" and...poof! the crisis is averted, and you get upvotes for your effort. I kid of course because HN trots out "desal!!" without considering the twenty year lead time required to build the power plants and desal plants for 40 million people. There is only real solution that works in the near-term - relocate people.
ZetaZero 5y ago
Cities have been buying out farms for years now. They can buy a single farm with water rights, then drain the aquifer over the next 10-20 years. Every other family that depends on that aquifer gets screwed, with wells that dry up. The western water laws are enshrined in states constitutions. It's going to get a lot worse before the laws are changed. Just one example: https://www.elpasotimes.com/story/news/2016/07/06/el-paso-water-west-texas-ranch-acquisition/86777450/ https://www.elpasotimes.com/story/news/2016/07/06/el-paso-wa...
gmadsen 5y ago
it is not impossible to bring water through pipes, or invest heavily in desalination
- AnimalMuppet 5y ago
  But to bring water through the pipes, you have to have water at the other end of the pipe. That's rare out west, and getting more rare.
  - cudgy 5y ago
    Pacific Ocean has some water in it.
    - AnimalMuppet 5y ago
      Not usable water, though. That brings you back to desalination, which is... possible. Is it possible on the scale that's needed? It's not obvious that it is.
      - bradknowles 5y ago
        Physically possible? Yes. Financially feasible? Not yet, and maybe not ever. We’ll see.
api 5y ago
What's the prospect for building large pipelines from places with abundant water? It would be extremely costly up front but infrastructure like that can last over a century fairly easily.
- spaetzleesser 5y ago
  I wonder about that too but is it even possible to do such a thing on the scale that’s needed? Also, are there places that have enough water to supply the West or would they dry out too?
  - gremlinsinc 5y ago
    What if we created inland seas? Pipe salt water inland into reservoirs... the water evaporates, and then catch the rainfall which maybe is filtered of the salt?
- withinboredom 5y ago
  Afghanistan did it thousands of years ago. Some of them still work. They are called a Karez IIRC.
- coryrc 5y ago
  Where's this place with excess fresh water on the level of what California wastes growing alfalfa in the desert?
  - api 5y ago
    Northern Canada?
raldi 5y ago
Or we could just stop exporting almonds to other countries. https://www.motherjones.com/wp-content/uploads/LA-vs-Exports_v3.gif https://www.motherjones.com/wp-content/uploads/LA-vs-Exports...
- Rebelgecko 5y ago
  An individual almond contains only a small portion of the water used to grow it, so presumably the vast majority of the water used to grow almonds in California actually stays in California.
  - raldi 5y ago
    "Today nearly 80% of California almond orchards are using microirrigation and, as older orchards are replaced, we expect that number to grow." "Previous studies have shown that a reasonable estimate of the runoff volume is 15-20% of the applied water." Source: https://www.almonds.com/sites/default/files/2020-04/Almond-Irrigation-Improvement-Continuum.pdf https://www.almonds.com/sites/default/files/2020-04/Almond-I...
    - Rebelgecko 5y ago
      I'd guess that runoff is a relatively small compared to transpiration. If it takes gallons of water to grow a single almond, there's no way that a significant portion of that is still in the almond when it's exported. IIRC almonds aren't particularly thirsty compared to other nuts, they're just really popular so their stats look the most dramatic.
      - raldi 5y ago
        Indeed, they're not especially thirsty; California just grows an incredible volume of them because we subsidize their production with vastly underpriced water far cheaper than the rate per volume that residential users have to pay. It takes about a gallon of water to produce an almond, and the residual ends up in the air, where it's basically useless. I mean, you don't see the state repealing rules about low-flow showers and toilets because "the water stays in California", right?
hyperion2010 5y ago
Time for my usual WITWUS post. We have know this for more than 140 years [0]. I strongly recommend that everyone living in the western United States read at least the introduction[1] to Beyond the Hundredth Meridian[2]. The introduction is more relevant now than it was when it was written 67 years ago, itself 75 years after the publication of Lands of the Arid Region. Previously: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27910098 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27910098 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18098899 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18098899 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26964166 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26964166 0. https://pubs.usgs.gov/unnumbered/70039240/report.pdf https://pubs.usgs.gov/unnumbered/70039240/report.pdf LANDS OF THE ARID REGION John Wesley Powell 1878 1. https://erenow.net/modern/beyond-the-hundredth-meridian/1.php https://erenow.net/modern/beyond-the-hundredth-meridian/1.ph... Bernard DeVoto 1954 2. Beyond the Hundredth Meridian: John Wesley Powell and the Second Opening of the West ISBN:9780140159943 Wallace Stegner 1954
imperialdrive 5y ago
https://www.npr.org/2015/05/28/408295800/the-water-knife-cuts-deep https://www.npr.org/2015/05/28/408295800/the-water-knife-cut... Listened to this book describing what you predict while driving across the Central Valley... It sure does feel like just a matter of time.
- jmugan 5y ago
  That is a great book.
snarf21 5y ago
Yeah, and the midwest will be next. Agriculture at scale has really destroyed our aquafiers.
reducesuffering 5y ago
Is there a map somewhere that illustrates areas with different water availability? I don't think average rainfall is quite the metric as places like Michigan have access to the Great Lakes. I'd want to compare places with low or high natural water.

thehappypm 5y ago

Or, in a more optimistic approach, the market will take over here. Private water delivery companies? Agricultural advances to use less water? Prices for water-hungry crops going up, shifting consumers to cheaper alternatives?

nradov 5y ago
The problem is that water rights are covered by State constitutions and statutes. Introducing markets would require changing those laws and seizing water rights. That might require making huge compensation payments to existing rights holders. Politically it's just extremely difficult. In general US agriculture is extremely wasteful of water. We could drastically cut water consumption by adopting farming techniques used in Israel, but food costs would increase.
- cudgy 5y ago
  “That might require making huge compensation payments to existing rights holders.” I doubt most of the stakeholders paid anything for their water rights. Perhaps, if there is any compensation, it would be equal to what they paid for the actual rates originally inflation adjusted.
  - nradov 5y ago
    That's not how the law works. Acquisition price is irrelevant to 5th Amendment rights. Compensation must be based on current fair market value. You might consider that unfair but it's the reality of our laws today.
    - cudgy 5y ago
      Laws can be changed, especially when it comes to people’s survival.
    - curryst 5y ago
      The easy thing to do would be to tank the value of water rights first. Taxes seem like an obvious option. I can't think of any constitutional reasons why they can't tax you for drawing from natural springs, else all new taxes would be a constitutional issue. You may not even need to nationalize then. You might also be able to simply ban private consumption of water from waterways. Nothing is being seized, they still own the water, it's just worthless because they can't use it. Similar to what would happen if we ban coal. I don't think we'd have to go track down everyone with rights to a coal vein and pay them what it's worth.
twobitshifter 5y ago
The market is always too late in constraining resources often running counter to it. Higher prices for water will lead to more water being mined. High oil prices led to deep water drilling, fracking, and tar sands.

Diederich 5y ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_water_wars https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_water_wars But yeah, it's going to get a lot worse.

twiddling 5y ago
and a plug into: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cadillac_Desert https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cadillac_Desert

newaccount2021 5y ago

Why? All you need to do to solve the water crisis is go to an online forum, say "desal!!" and...poof! the crisis is averted, and you get upvotes for your effort. I kid of course because HN trots out "desal!!" without considering the twenty year lead time required to build the power plants and desal plants for 40 million people. There is only real solution that works in the near-term - relocate people.

ZetaZero 5y ago

Cities have been buying out farms for years now. They can buy a single farm with water rights, then drain the aquifer over the next 10-20 years. Every other family that depends on that aquifer gets screwed, with wells that dry up. The western water laws are enshrined in states constitutions. It's going to get a lot worse before the laws are changed. Just one example: https://www.elpasotimes.com/story/news/2016/07/06/el-paso-water-west-texas-ranch-acquisition/86777450/ https://www.elpasotimes.com/story/news/2016/07/06/el-paso-wa...

gmadsen 5y ago

it is not impossible to bring water through pipes, or invest heavily in desalination

AnimalMuppet 5y ago
But to bring water through the pipes, you have to have water at the other end of the pipe. That's rare out west, and getting more rare.
- cudgy 5y ago
  Pacific Ocean has some water in it.
  - AnimalMuppet 5y ago
    Not usable water, though. That brings you back to desalination, which is... possible. Is it possible on the scale that's needed? It's not obvious that it is.
    - bradknowles 5y ago
      Physically possible? Yes. Financially feasible? Not yet, and maybe not ever. We’ll see.

api 5y ago

What's the prospect for building large pipelines from places with abundant water? It would be extremely costly up front but infrastructure like that can last over a century fairly easily.

spaetzleesser 5y ago
I wonder about that too but is it even possible to do such a thing on the scale that’s needed? Also, are there places that have enough water to supply the West or would they dry out too?
- gremlinsinc 5y ago
  What if we created inland seas? Pipe salt water inland into reservoirs... the water evaporates, and then catch the rainfall which maybe is filtered of the salt?
withinboredom 5y ago
Afghanistan did it thousands of years ago. Some of them still work. They are called a Karez IIRC.
coryrc 5y ago
Where's this place with excess fresh water on the level of what California wastes growing alfalfa in the desert?
- api 5y ago
  Northern Canada?

raldi 5y ago

Or we could just stop exporting almonds to other countries. https://www.motherjones.com/wp-content/uploads/LA-vs-Exports_v3.gif https://www.motherjones.com/wp-content/uploads/LA-vs-Exports...

Rebelgecko 5y ago
An individual almond contains only a small portion of the water used to grow it, so presumably the vast majority of the water used to grow almonds in California actually stays in California.
- raldi 5y ago
  "Today nearly 80% of California almond orchards are using microirrigation and, as older orchards are replaced, we expect that number to grow." "Previous studies have shown that a reasonable estimate of the runoff volume is 15-20% of the applied water." Source: https://www.almonds.com/sites/default/files/2020-04/Almond-Irrigation-Improvement-Continuum.pdf https://www.almonds.com/sites/default/files/2020-04/Almond-I...
  - Rebelgecko 5y ago
    I'd guess that runoff is a relatively small compared to transpiration. If it takes gallons of water to grow a single almond, there's no way that a significant portion of that is still in the almond when it's exported. IIRC almonds aren't particularly thirsty compared to other nuts, they're just really popular so their stats look the most dramatic.
    - raldi 5y ago
      Indeed, they're not especially thirsty; California just grows an incredible volume of them because we subsidize their production with vastly underpriced water far cheaper than the rate per volume that residential users have to pay. It takes about a gallon of water to produce an almond, and the residual ends up in the air, where it's basically useless. I mean, you don't see the state repealing rules about low-flow showers and toilets because "the water stays in California", right?

hyperion2010 5y ago

Time for my usual WITWUS post. We have know this for more than 140 years [0]. I strongly recommend that everyone living in the western United States read at least the introduction[1] to Beyond the Hundredth Meridian[2]. The introduction is more relevant now than it was when it was written 67 years ago, itself 75 years after the publication of Lands of the Arid Region. Previously: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27910098 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27910098 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18098899 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18098899 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26964166 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26964166 0. https://pubs.usgs.gov/unnumbered/70039240/report.pdf https://pubs.usgs.gov/unnumbered/70039240/report.pdf LANDS OF THE ARID REGION John Wesley Powell 1878 1. https://erenow.net/modern/beyond-the-hundredth-meridian/1.php https://erenow.net/modern/beyond-the-hundredth-meridian/1.ph... Bernard DeVoto 1954 2. Beyond the Hundredth Meridian: John Wesley Powell and the Second Opening of the West ISBN:9780140159943 Wallace Stegner 1954

imperialdrive 5y ago

https://www.npr.org/2015/05/28/408295800/the-water-knife-cuts-deep https://www.npr.org/2015/05/28/408295800/the-water-knife-cut... Listened to this book describing what you predict while driving across the Central Valley... It sure does feel like just a matter of time.

jmugan 5y ago
That is a great book.

snarf21 5y ago

Yeah, and the midwest will be next. Agriculture at scale has really destroyed our aquafiers.

reducesuffering 5y ago

Is there a map somewhere that illustrates areas with different water availability? I don't think average rainfall is quite the metric as places like Michigan have access to the Great Lakes. I'd want to compare places with low or high natural water.