9 ms·
For many years I've really wanted to buy (and hold) SpaceX shares. Such a shame it's not on the public market...
by jstsch 5y ago
For many years I've really wanted to buy (and hold) SpaceX shares. Such a shame it's not on the public market...
- mypastself 5y agoOwning Starlink shares is the closest you might get, but its IPO is still a few years away.
- toomuchtodo 5y agoFidelity has several funds with some SpaceX exposure. https://www.mrmarvinallen.com/what-fidelity-funds-hold-spacex/ https://www.mrmarvinallen.com/what-fidelity-funds-hold-space...
- whatshisface 5y agoI've made this comment before, but I have always wondered if there are enough linearly independent SpaceX-holding funds to construct a SpaceX-matching derivative product using only publicly traded securities.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- airstrike 5y agoNot an expert, but I think one problem would be the redemption fees from needing to rebalance this portfolio of mutual funds
- whatshisface 5y agoIf only real life were as frictionless as arbitrage theory.
- airstrike 5y agoSadly that means having to put your money in a mutual fund which one may or may not want to for various reasons
- alexose 5y agoYou're not wrong, but the exposure is around 0.039% last time I looked into it. Plus you have to own a bunch of Uber, too. Google (Alphabet) owns a big chunk of SpaceX, maybe around $7B worth now? Given their market cap of 1.856T, that ends up being ~ 0.38% SpaceX.
- BoxOfRain 5y agoHonestly I'll be happy when it becomes available for mobile installations let alone their IPO. I know it's mostly aimed at land-based installations where the fixed infrastructure is poor, but they'll be making boat dwellers of various kinds very happy!
- remcob 5y agoWhat's the current best alternative for boat dwellers?
- InvaderFizz 5y agoConsidering they are already in the process of certifying mobile terminals, I would say late 2022 for larger boats and planes. 2023 for something you or I could buy for RV/Boat use.
- BoxOfRain 5y agoThat's not bad at all! I do wonder how they're going to make the tranceivers rugged enough for the wet and salty environment your average sailing yacht is found in, and I suspect the motion of the waves makes aiming the dish a challenge. I suspect the speed will drop as soon as the boat goes upwind and starts heeling!
- InvaderFizz 5y agoThat's already built in, I think. My reading of this news[0] is that they're using much larger phased arrays that sit flat on the deck/roof. 100% electronic steering. Granted, that's speculation on my part based on a decade of military satellite operations. Starlink stated that they are larger, higher gain, lower power usage, and won't shoot below 25 degrees azimuth. That says to me a 2-4x surface area, lays flat, phased array panel. I wouldn't expect much drop in speed, even in the worst waters, except for rain fade and if the roll of the boat causes a satellite to go out of sight to the dish. In those scenarios, I think most people can live with Netflix being barely functional. 0: https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2021/08/starlink-for-vehicles-plan-has-ruggedized-terminal-for-extreme-heat-and-cold/ https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2021/08/starl...
- joewadcan 5y agoBaron Partners owns a good chunk of SpaceX as well. Especially useful if you're buying from an account that can only purchase funds. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BPTRX/holdings?p=BPTRX https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BPTRX/holdings?p=BPTRX
- b9a2cab5 5y agoUnfortunately that fund holds around 40% of its capital in TSLA alone and only ~5% in SpaceX, so not a very good choice for investment. It also uses leverage. Great choice if you believe in Elon, not so great choice if you have any semblance of risk management.
- adenadel 5y agoPresumably someone could take other positions to hedge away all of the other holdings in the fund so that (to a first order approximation) their only exposure is SpaceX, right? (I only know the basics of investing)
- ortusdux 5y agoI assume that Elon's struggles with Tesla short sellers have factored into the decision to keep SpaceX private. I don't blame him. They had the honor of being the most shorted company in the world. I believe it is fair to assume that a portion of Tesla's bad press can be traced back to some of these short sellers. As of a few days ago, Tesla has their lowest short interest to date. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-04/tesla-short-sellers-flee-as-musk-s-carmaker-sets-delivery-record https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-04/tesla-sho...
- marcusverus 5y agoElon has long said that the goal of SpaceX is to colonize Mars, and that he did not want to go public because shareholders would happily drop the idea of colonizing Mars in favor of a more profitable one.
- xhrpost 5y agoWhy would this be different with private share owners who don't work for the company? In the end, all investors want to make profit, no?
- Kranar 5y agoBecause you can choose who you sell shares to as a private company and even more, you can restrict those people from selling shares to others that you do not approve of.
- croutonwagon 5y agoGenerally you can then pick and choose who holds shares and ensure they are of like mind, or possibly even stipulate it as a condition. SpaceX and a lot of space industry, kinda like IT, seems to capitalize on the like mindedness/idealization and enthusiasm of many that want to work in aerospace. And I have heard the churn and burnout is real as a result. I personally have avoided startups and other types of jobs that would require more....time investment and dedication. I know thats not how everone sees it, but for me, my job is a means to an end and that end is family and fun/recreation, not colonizing mars or being a part of the next great innovation, tech or otherwise. As a result its clear I'm not cut out for a place like Spacex or even Amazon (and thats assuming I am even quick enough to hold such a gig). I like my nights and weekends and work/like separation too much.
- ryanSrich 5y agoTSLA is the defacto method of investing into “Elon”, which would include Space X. It’s why the price of the stock is so hard to rate. If Space X went public I’d bet we’d see a TSLA sell off.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- tobyjsullivan 5y agoYou're getting downvoted but I can attest that I did exactly this. It's a completely nonsensical investment to be fair. My theory was less "invest in Elon" and more that there are a few different scenarios (on decade+ timescales) where either Tesla acquires SpaceX or vice-versa. Seemed like the most practical way to possibly own SpaceX shares one day - even if the probabilities are slim. It's a nicely hedged bet though. Because worst case, I've just invested in some (not much) TSLA stock.
- FiberBundle 5y agoCan you explain why? Maybe I'm missing a lot here, but what is spacex going to do to justify a valuation of, say, $200m over the next 20 years? If starlink succeeds it might be able to capture probably no more than 5% of the Isp market, which will probably correspond to around $50bn of revenue in a year in a couple of years. The satellite launch market is currently around $5bn a year, I think, or spacex currently has revenues of that amount and I've heard Musk say that he expects that part of their revenue to roughly top out at that amount. Even if that industry, say, doubles in the next 20 years, that's not that much revenue to warrant a >$200bn valuation. Most of the other potential revenue sources are all in theory highly lucrative, but I would seriously doubt that spacex would see any significant revenue from a colony on the Moon or on Mars in our lifetime, though I might just lack the imagination. Can you explain why you would want to own this company?
- lumost 5y agoSpacex is a highly speculative company with extremely large capital requirements, a strong track record of success, and some of the biggest moats of any company around. If you believe that the launch market could increase by 10x if costs fall by 10x then a 50 Billion/year revenue is achievable within 5-10 years. Satellite internet is a direct bet on this outcome by betting that Spacex could capture substantial portions of the ISP market. Ultimately as an investor you have to buy into this hypothesis to invest, and success will only occur if you invest a few 10s of billions. Therefore SpaceX will have a valuation in the hundreds of billions less all shareholders immediately dilute themselves. It probably helps that there are a large number of hundred billionaires interested in Space exploration.
- FiberBundle 5y agoIt's not that I believe SpaceX isn't a great company, it's just that I think their potential markets lack the size to justify such a valuation.
- izend 5y agoYou are discounting the potential military contracts that SpaceX will be awarded.
- davedx 5y agoYou can buy in secondary markets like EquityZen. https://equityzen.com/company/spacex/ https://equityzen.com/company/spacex/ Note that you do need to be an accredited investor for this.
- Zenst 5y agoI think many would buy shares in NASA - even if it was some token no return souvenir/donation/sponsor a mission kinda share issue.
- dragontamer 5y agoBack in 1940s, if you wanted to support the war effort, you bought war bonds. The highway down my parent's house was supported by muni (state-level bonds). I bought bonds to support a hospital in Detroit (and made lots of money on that!!). Etc. etc. Look up muni-bonds: they support highways, bridges, hospitals, and other infrastructure. I don't know if there's any for NASA specifically, but plenty of options if you actually want to invest in the country itself. --------- The main downside is that they're tax-free, which means their interest rates are set such that they assume you're a millionare. So if you're paying anything less than the top-tier tax bracket, you're kinda wasting money on a risk/reward basis. That is to say: if "normal bonds" are getting 4% right now, all the munis would be priced at you'd get roughly 2.52%, assuming the top tax bracket of 37%. All bonds have a level of risk that's graded on a sliding scale: AAA bonds are the lowest risk (and lowest %rate), and C being the lowest. Funny how that works? You write the laws so to favor muni-bonds by making them largely tax free, and then suddenly the free-market takes away the advantage lol.
- CrazyStat 5y ago> Funny how that works? You write the laws so to favor muni-bonds by making them largely tax free, and then suddenly the free-market takes away the advantage lol. The advantage is still there, it just goes to the municipalities issuing the bonds (where it gets passed on to taxpayers).
- dragontamer 5y agoI guess that's true. As someone who'd like to buy more munis however, I'm frustrated that I don't get a "piece" of the tax-savings. But you're right, the perspective is about reducing the %rates that cities / states pay, not about increasing the $$$ in my pocket as an investor.
- vmception 5y agoLie about your accredited status and purchase said shares
- modeless 5y agoI'm sure a large part of HN's audience legitimately qualifies. The majority of FAANG engineers are accredited investors. $200k income per year is the threshold and a college hire at Google can make that these days. Facebook's median compensation is $240k (across all roles, not just engineering). Unfortunately even an accredited investor can't purchase SpaceX shares because they are not available. You have to be a really big investor to buy shares directly from SpaceX in one of their funding rounds. You can't purchase shares from employees because of trading restrictions. Your options are limited to participation in consortiums or funds and these tend to have really bad terms.
- vmception 5y agotrading restrictions are discretionary and also circumventable grease some palms if you have to, the consequences aren't always/necessarily your problem the restrictions are either contractual and discretionary by the issuer, and/or the secondary sale is the issuer's regulatory problem but the accredited-only status can absolve
- LatteLazy 5y agoIt's sad. Elon has said he would have SpaceX to be public because it forces short termism on a company. I'd happily buy shares on the understanding the company wouldn't even report (let alone report a profit) for a decade. But that's the nature of public markets, I guess you have to set the rules based on the average idiot CEO and the average idiot Speculator...
- TeMPOraL 5y ago> I guess you have to set the rules based on the average idiot CEO and the average idiot Speculator Idiot CEOs are a self-correcting problem. The rules are there because of smart scoundrel CEOs scamming idiot Investors.
- elihu 5y agoI would like to buy shares too, but not if an IPO would mean SpaceX changing into something substantially different and less good than they are now. I don't know that there has to be an inherent conflict between meeting shareholder expectations and being a positive influence on the world, but empirically it seems that few companies are able to do the latter at the same level post-IPO.
- paxys 5y agoSpaceX isn't going to go public anytime soon. Elon has said though that he wants to spin off Starlink and take that public in the next few years.