4 ms·

Several reasons are given in the article. Hydro and wind are down, nuclear is being phased out, coal plants are converted to gas, among others.

by dtech 5y ago

asdfasgasdgasdg 5y ago
Sure, but I would expect those to be part of forecasted long term trends, and thus to be priced in gradually. I wouldn't expect an acute shortage to result from these reasons. (I mean clearly my expectations are wrong given what is happening but this doesn't match my prior understanding of how things are supposed to work.) I wonder if this type of event will presage a shift back to nuclear for Europe. Nuclear and renewable are basically Europe's only options for energy independence. A price rise like this might make them rethink their current fuel mix.
- jdhn 5y ago
  Unless all the heat in Europe switches over to electric powered, you're still going to have natgas crunches from time to time during the winter.
  - nicoburns 5y ago
    This will happen eventually for climate change reasons, but I think it's going to take a while.
  - raxxorrax 5y ago
    Supply of gas isn't endangered currently, on the contrary. There are parties competing to sell ressources. What drives energy prices in central Europe are investments in changing the infrastructure to renewable. Yes, that isn't cheap. But not really a crisis in the common sense. Some people would like to see the gas prices inflated perhaps.
  - fmajid 5y ago
    The French government is massively subsidizing conversions from oil or gas furnaces to heat pumps, and their electricity is majority nuclear.
- Iwan-Zotow 5y ago
  > thus to be priced in gradually well, then, it is priced in, maybe just not that gradually
- sentinel 5y ago
  About coal: 2030 seems to be the deadline to close all coal burning power plants in Europe. Every year more coal power plants will be shut down. This year was a deadline year for some countries in the EU. It was all a long term plan, but poorly executed. Nuclear would be great. I’m not sure how many reactors are gen 2 or gen 3. Gen 2 reactors are still risky.
- fsslrisrchr 5y ago
  " I wouldn't expect an acute shortage to result from these reasons. (I mean clearly my expectations are wrong given what is happening but this doesn't match my prior understanding of how things are supposed to work.)" Coal is actually pretty important to smooth out energy. There was something fascinating I learned during the Texas outage last year. At the time I was privy to private exchange emails among power engineers. One engineer explained that one of the problems they were having is that, with the closing of coal plants, the reliability of the grid goes down. And with a very good reason: You can store a massive pile of coal next to the plant for (basically) free [1]. oil, by comparison, is expensive to store, natgas more expensive still. What happens is, in the winter, the pressure of the natgas lines goes down as consumers drive up their thermostats. Therefore, natgas plants can't deliver the power required beacuse the gas isn't there. So, in the N. East of the USA where there are nasty cold snaps, power operators have piles of coal ready to be burned in coal plants. Most of the power is still from natgas throughout the year, but coal bails you out when it gets super cold (note, the midwest doesn't need this because it's always nastily cold there -> the natgas lines are built accordingly). [1] Some, having read the popular press explanations of the outage, will complain that renewables delivered 90% of what was requested. That's true, but only half of the story. The 90% figure was a de-rated amount of energy [2]. Basically dispatchers knew that renewables weren't going to deliver and adjusted their predictions accordingly. The blackout happened, therefore, because the power source that was expected to show up and deliver in this situation tripped over itself. There's no doubt natgas can deliver - it does every winter in the North - but it can't if it's not implemented properly, or if there's not enough gas pressure in the lines to deal with a massive sure. [2] None of this is meant to be a dismissal of renewable energy. Texas leads in renewables, and why shouldn't they? It's a resource that (can) cleans up our environment. But i power we can't treat things like panaceas and have to be realistic about where we stand.
imtringued 5y ago
Raw renewable share: Month August,September 2021: 52%,40% 2020: 48%,44% 2019: 46%,48% 2018: 38%,41% The thing about gas is that you can store it. If August produces too much you can use less gas in August and use it in September. If you take both months they average to 46% which is the same as 2020. 10% less renewables in this specific month isn't enough to cause price explosions especially when the previous month had been at an all time high. Data: https://energy-charts.info/charts/renewable_share/chart.htm?l=en&c=DE&year=2021&share=ren_share&interval=month https://energy-charts.info/charts/renewable_share/chart.htm?...
- Ekaros 5y ago
  I have understood that storing gas and even reducing production by a lot is not exactly simple process at scales we use it. Same goes for oil.
belorn 5y ago
It is important to note that construction of wind farms is not down. 2020 had an increase in capacity of 20 GW with $31 billion of investment in offshore wind alone.
- Macha 5y ago
  It's less about quantity of wind plants being built, but a unusually long period of quiet weather has led to output being down significantly from those already in place at time where gas was the only option to pick up the slack.
jillesvangurp 5y ago
I doubt the amount of megawatts add up to this simplistic conclusion of this being because of renewables failing us or Europe abandoning nuclear. Plenty of wind here in Germany in the last few weeks. Hydro in Norway is a thing but it's actually not that big of a portion of the grid across Europe and the output is fairly stable. Nuclear has been on the decline for many years but not that many plants actually shut down recently. It certainly pales in comparison to the amount of wind/solar coming online every year. Coal decline is much more significant since the amount of that disappearing from grids is a lot higher in recent years. The amount of gas usage for electricity production isn't actually increasing that much either because coal capacity is actually mostly being replaced with renewable energy instead. There are maybe a few new gas plants coming online recently but overall the proportion of gas is barely growing in the European electricity market (unlike renewables). E.g. Germany has actually seen a slight decrease in the overall amount of gas consumed over the last 20 years or so: https://www.statista.com/statistics/703657/natural-gas-consumption-germany/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/703657/natural-gas-consu... However, the problem is not shortages or blackouts but high prices of gas specifically. There are no blackouts in Europe right now. Just people getting frustrated with having to pay more for their energy. Partially the high prices are because of a global shift in demand and partially this is because of e.g. CO2 emission pricing, which is a thing in Europe. But a big part is also that Covid lockdown restrictions have been lifted in the last few months and economic activity and associated energy consumption is a lot higher all over the world. Large parts of Europe use gas for heating much more than for electricity. Gas shortages would be a problem for that reason specifically. So, I expect Russia will have a great year for gas exports as they will be able to charge a premium. This report has a nice summary of the energy market in Europe last month: https://aleasoft.com/beyond-price-records-august-good-month-photovoltaic-energy/ https://aleasoft.com/beyond-price-records-august-good-month-... Wind in Germany was actually improving during August. Solar was pretty decent too though July was a bit off compared to previous years. It's autumn now so that usually means more wind and less solar. Lots of rain too. Good news for wind and hydro in other words. I'm not aware of any seasonally unusual drought or low wind predictions for the next few months.

Several reasons are given in the article. Hydro and wind are down, nuclear is being phased out, coal plants are converted to gas, among others.

by dtech 5y ago

Several reasons are given in the article. Hydro and wind are down, nuclear is being phased out, coal plants are converted to gas, among others.

asdfasgasdgasdg 5y ago

Sure, but I would expect those to be part of forecasted long term trends, and thus to be priced in gradually. I wouldn't expect an acute shortage to result from these reasons. (I mean clearly my expectations are wrong given what is happening but this doesn't match my prior understanding of how things are supposed to work.) I wonder if this type of event will presage a shift back to nuclear for Europe. Nuclear and renewable are basically Europe's only options for energy independence. A price rise like this might make them rethink their current fuel mix.

jdhn 5y ago
Unless all the heat in Europe switches over to electric powered, you're still going to have natgas crunches from time to time during the winter.
- nicoburns 5y ago
  This will happen eventually for climate change reasons, but I think it's going to take a while.
- raxxorrax 5y ago
  Supply of gas isn't endangered currently, on the contrary. There are parties competing to sell ressources. What drives energy prices in central Europe are investments in changing the infrastructure to renewable. Yes, that isn't cheap. But not really a crisis in the common sense. Some people would like to see the gas prices inflated perhaps.
- fmajid 5y ago
  The French government is massively subsidizing conversions from oil or gas furnaces to heat pumps, and their electricity is majority nuclear.
Iwan-Zotow 5y ago
> thus to be priced in gradually well, then, it is priced in, maybe just not that gradually
sentinel 5y ago
About coal: 2030 seems to be the deadline to close all coal burning power plants in Europe. Every year more coal power plants will be shut down. This year was a deadline year for some countries in the EU. It was all a long term plan, but poorly executed. Nuclear would be great. I’m not sure how many reactors are gen 2 or gen 3. Gen 2 reactors are still risky.
fsslrisrchr 5y ago
" I wouldn't expect an acute shortage to result from these reasons. (I mean clearly my expectations are wrong given what is happening but this doesn't match my prior understanding of how things are supposed to work.)" Coal is actually pretty important to smooth out energy. There was something fascinating I learned during the Texas outage last year. At the time I was privy to private exchange emails among power engineers. One engineer explained that one of the problems they were having is that, with the closing of coal plants, the reliability of the grid goes down. And with a very good reason: You can store a massive pile of coal next to the plant for (basically) free [1]. oil, by comparison, is expensive to store, natgas more expensive still. What happens is, in the winter, the pressure of the natgas lines goes down as consumers drive up their thermostats. Therefore, natgas plants can't deliver the power required beacuse the gas isn't there. So, in the N. East of the USA where there are nasty cold snaps, power operators have piles of coal ready to be burned in coal plants. Most of the power is still from natgas throughout the year, but coal bails you out when it gets super cold (note, the midwest doesn't need this because it's always nastily cold there -> the natgas lines are built accordingly). [1] Some, having read the popular press explanations of the outage, will complain that renewables delivered 90% of what was requested. That's true, but only half of the story. The 90% figure was a de-rated amount of energy [2]. Basically dispatchers knew that renewables weren't going to deliver and adjusted their predictions accordingly. The blackout happened, therefore, because the power source that was expected to show up and deliver in this situation tripped over itself. There's no doubt natgas can deliver - it does every winter in the North - but it can't if it's not implemented properly, or if there's not enough gas pressure in the lines to deal with a massive sure. [2] None of this is meant to be a dismissal of renewable energy. Texas leads in renewables, and why shouldn't they? It's a resource that (can) cleans up our environment. But i power we can't treat things like panaceas and have to be realistic about where we stand.

imtringued 5y ago

Raw renewable share: Month August,September 2021: 52%,40% 2020: 48%,44% 2019: 46%,48% 2018: 38%,41% The thing about gas is that you can store it. If August produces too much you can use less gas in August and use it in September. If you take both months they average to 46% which is the same as 2020. 10% less renewables in this specific month isn't enough to cause price explosions especially when the previous month had been at an all time high. Data: https://energy-charts.info/charts/renewable_share/chart.htm?l=en&c=DE&year=2021&share=ren_share&interval=month https://energy-charts.info/charts/renewable_share/chart.htm?...

Ekaros 5y ago
I have understood that storing gas and even reducing production by a lot is not exactly simple process at scales we use it. Same goes for oil.

belorn 5y ago

It is important to note that construction of wind farms is not down. 2020 had an increase in capacity of 20 GW with $31 billion of investment in offshore wind alone.

Macha 5y ago
It's less about quantity of wind plants being built, but a unusually long period of quiet weather has led to output being down significantly from those already in place at time where gas was the only option to pick up the slack.

jillesvangurp 5y ago

I doubt the amount of megawatts add up to this simplistic conclusion of this being because of renewables failing us or Europe abandoning nuclear. Plenty of wind here in Germany in the last few weeks. Hydro in Norway is a thing but it's actually not that big of a portion of the grid across Europe and the output is fairly stable. Nuclear has been on the decline for many years but not that many plants actually shut down recently. It certainly pales in comparison to the amount of wind/solar coming online every year. Coal decline is much more significant since the amount of that disappearing from grids is a lot higher in recent years. The amount of gas usage for electricity production isn't actually increasing that much either because coal capacity is actually mostly being replaced with renewable energy instead. There are maybe a few new gas plants coming online recently but overall the proportion of gas is barely growing in the European electricity market (unlike renewables). E.g. Germany has actually seen a slight decrease in the overall amount of gas consumed over the last 20 years or so: https://www.statista.com/statistics/703657/natural-gas-consumption-germany/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/703657/natural-gas-consu... However, the problem is not shortages or blackouts but high prices of gas specifically. There are no blackouts in Europe right now. Just people getting frustrated with having to pay more for their energy. Partially the high prices are because of a global shift in demand and partially this is because of e.g. CO2 emission pricing, which is a thing in Europe. But a big part is also that Covid lockdown restrictions have been lifted in the last few months and economic activity and associated energy consumption is a lot higher all over the world. Large parts of Europe use gas for heating much more than for electricity. Gas shortages would be a problem for that reason specifically. So, I expect Russia will have a great year for gas exports as they will be able to charge a premium. This report has a nice summary of the energy market in Europe last month: https://aleasoft.com/beyond-price-records-august-good-month-photovoltaic-energy/ https://aleasoft.com/beyond-price-records-august-good-month-... Wind in Germany was actually improving during August. Solar was pretty decent too though July was a bit off compared to previous years. It's autumn now so that usually means more wind and less solar. Lots of rain too. Good news for wind and hydro in other words. I'm not aware of any seasonally unusual drought or low wind predictions for the next few months.