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Norway bans gas cars in 2025 but trends point toward 100%EV sales as early April

122 points by underscore_ku 5y ago

jfengel 5y ago
It'll be interesting to see what happens to gas stations. Part of what makes gas cars so popular is the easy ability to refuel, since stations are ubiquitous. Once a tipping point is reached, most new homes will have the ability to charge cars, and old ones retrofitted, so people mostly charge at home. And gas stations will begin to dry up, making gas cars less desirable. That same pattern should follow in every country, so it will be useful to have Norway as a data point on what actually happens.
- i_haz_rabies 5y ago
  A street in my town (in Canada) already has 4 gas stations and there are 3 new ones being built. Granted, it is close to a major highway... but 7 gas stations in a 2km stretch seems crazy to me, especially given the (seemingly) inevitable shift to EVs.
  - cmrdporcupine 5y ago
    It's especially obnoxious given that remediation of gas stations sites after the fact is extremely expensive. Or at least has been, maybe they're being built to a higher standard now.
  - drannex 5y ago
    Sadly, that's rather common here in the US.
- max937 5y ago
  I remember reading that 7/11 (popular gas station in the US) makes most of its money from purchases inside the convenience store and not gas. But nevertheless, the gas is probably the main reason why most people stop by anyway.
  - mimikatz 5y ago
    EVs are likely better for C-Stores like 7/11. People will have to wait longer more likely to shop, pick up food or some smokes.
    - phreeza 5y ago
      But you need more real estate for the same number of customers per day, so it's a trade off.
    - jondwillis 5y ago
      I have noticed that Wawa (mid-atlantic convenience store often paired with gas station) is starting to set up a supercharger network, sometimes even when there is no gas station already existing. Anecdotally, I agree with your assessment that EVs will cause more purchases.
    - dragontamer 5y ago
      I've never spent more than 5 minutes in a 7/11 in my life. The point of those stores is to get in and get out quickly. It's the exact opposite of an EV charging station. In fact, most 7/11 in my area enforce the 'no loitering' rule. I don't even think that 7/11 managers want you there for more than 5 minutes. Restaurants or shopping malls I'll stay for 2 hours regularly, and a few level 2 chargers can actually get me 50 miles of charge in that time. That's where the EV chargers should be.
  - dhosek 5y ago
    That's the case with pretty much every gas station. The station operator's margin on the gasoline itself is pretty close to zero.
  - seanmcdirmid 5y ago
    Some 7-11s are gas stations in the USA, but most aren’t, so I’m not sure how to judge this claim. I definitely wouldn’t consider 7-11 to be a popular place for gas like chevron or shell.
    - 5y ago
- josefresco 5y ago
  > And gas stations will begin to dry up Will they though? I was under the impression "gas stations" make very little from the gas itself, and instead make most from the store (food/drinks etc.) Recently they replaced a very simple and old gas station in my town with a completely new station featuring a robust store. The volume of business to that station has probably increased 10x.
  - snewman 5y ago
    I imagine the reason they make so much from the store is that the gas station is drawing people in? It's expensive to build and maintain the gas station itself, they wouldn't do it unless it was an important contributor to the business model.
  - danhor 5y ago
    Operating a gas station is expensive, so many will ditch the "gas" part. Often the primary draw of gas stations is the gas, not the store, for which there are better alternatives. And since operating an EV-Charger is pretty easy & cheap compared to gas, there will be many stores adding EV-Chargers in the parking lot. Here in germany, there are already a few supermarket chains (primarily ALDI) that have EV-Chargers on their parking lots.
  - dharmab 5y ago
    I used to work for a gas station chain's corporate office in the mid '10s. In general the business was 50/50 gas and food sales, with gas having higher volumes and food having higher margins. The business strategy was to expand food sales and b2b gas and diesel sales (i.e. fuel for company fleets). There was also some niche targets like powersports (e.g. ethanol free fuel for classic vehicles and older recreational powersports equipment).
  - walrus01 5y ago
    I can see a business model in setting up something like one of the large outdoor/weather resistant Japanese vending machines near a bank of chargers. Without staff. https://www.google.com/search?q=japanese+vending+machine+large&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiLlvmfq5XzAhUMVN8KHeHIBXcQ_AUoAXoECAEQAw&biw=1680&bih=940&dpr=2 https://www.google.com/search?q=japanese+vending+machine+lar...
- toomuchtodo 5y ago
  They will turn into vending machines with a parking lot and bathroom.
- JJMcJ 5y ago
  And what happens to people in apartment complexes, and even more so, those who park on the street. Oh, that's just "the poors", they can drive to a gas station 10 miles a way, I suppose.
  - kwhitefoot 5y ago
    New apartment buildings here in Norway have to have off street, usually underground parking, with charging facilities. Not much help to people who park their cars in the street but that is not so common here in Norway even in cities, most apartment complexes already have off street parking
  - cm2187 5y ago
    And wait 1h on the side of the road that their car charges.
  - wbsss4412 5y ago
    Every time I read an EV discussion I see comments feigning concern for poor people, even though they are the demographic least likely to own cars at all. If people are actually concerned about the poor, the conversation should be about good public transit, pedestrian and bike infrastructure-things that actually make a difference for people with less means.
    - 988747 5y ago
      Depends on the country I guess. In Poland poor people usually own cars, just very old and cheap ones, like 15 years old VW Golf with resale value of $500. There are very few people here who can't afford any car at all. If ICE cars are bannned completely, having to switch to extremely expensive EV will be a problem for them.
      - wbsss4412 5y ago
        Of course, and it’s similar in the United States. I’m not saying it’s not a matter of concern at all, it’s just that here in the US we’ve absolutely hamstrung all other modes of transportation besides cars, which is not helpful for poor people, not to mention all of the many other policies we have that adversely effect the poor. It’s just in this one discussion that people come out of the woodwork suddenly proclaiming how terrible anti ice policies are for the poor, and never with any suggestion for compromise eg “if we do this, it would have an adverse effect on the poor, we could mitigate that with X”. Therefore it’s hard to read it as anything other than disingenuous.
- bdcravens 5y ago
  I think that as gas use dries up, gas stations will being installing charging stations (since it takes longer to charge up, it creates an even more captive market for their products in the store) (this of course is based on the idea that charging away from home will still be necessary, which I think it will be)
  - kwhitefoot 5y ago
    Circle K and Esso in Norway are already doing this.
- willvarfar 5y ago
  Almost all gas stations across the nordics are self service and only sell gas. Visiting America, I was completely flummoxed by attendants and tipping and other antiquated things. This was coined “bullshit jobs” recently. I think Norway probably points at where the rest of the world is slowly going to go.
  - Happycars 5y ago
    Only sell gas? What? I've never ever seen a Norwegian gas station that doesn't have a small grocery store/kiosk attached, plus usually a cleaning hall etc.
    - willvarfar 5y ago
      https://electrek.co/2020/02/17/fuel-retail-chains-are-visiting-norway-to-ponder-a-future-when-gas-stations-dont-exist/ https://electrek.co/2020/02/17/fuel-retail-chains-are-visiti... is another article on the same site talking about how gas stations are increasingly unmanned. There are over 100 unmanned uno-x in Norway, for example. Sweden is even further ahead. I have to think hard to recall any Swedish stations near me of any brand that isn’t self service or has a shop. There are still some shops with statoil in Sweden, which is Norwegian… but so is ST1, which is entirely unmanned.
      - Happycars 5y ago
        Your claim that "Almost all gas stations across the nordics are self service and only sell gas." is still wildly inaccurate. For Norway it seems to be roughly 10 % unmanned, and like I said, this is new to me so it is a fairly recent change.
- Happycars 5y ago
  This is purely anecdotal, but I live in Oslo where the majority of cars are now electric. I have seen no reduction in traffic to the neighboring Shell station in the past decade. As far as I know it doesn't offer charging, there are charging stations a few blocks away and this is in an urban area in our biggest city. My guess is that their daytime customers are people dropping by for a quick bite when parking at a grocery store is too much effort. Stores aren't allowed to be open for the night, so the gas station doesn't have any competition for nighttime customers.
- avrionov 5y ago
  Here is a very good essay from a few years ago by Ben Evans [1] about the second order consequences of the electric cars. [1] https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2017/3/20/cars-and-s https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2017/3/20/cars-and-s...
  - carapace 5y ago
    Your link 404'd for me. https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2017/3/20/cars-and-second-order-consequences https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2017/3/20/cars-and-s...
- sys_64738 5y ago
  This will be the tipping point if it gets hard to find gasoline stations. I won't buy an EV until the very end as the technology is so basic right now. It has to improve and I think we need to get to the point of driving thousands of miles on one charge before it'll be wholly accepted.
sgarrity 5y ago
Does anyone in Norway drive a minivan?
- dhosek 5y ago
  Not in Norway, but my wife and I have the Chrysler Pacifica plug-in hybrid (our only car). We average about 1 in 6 miles on gasoline power. With more widely distributed charging infrastructure and a bigger battery we could easily make that 0 in 6. This is living in the suburbs of Chicago.
  - dhosek 5y ago
    I'd add that a not insignificant part of that 1 in 6 is the car choosing to use gasoline power to keep the gas engine operable. It also likes to switch to gas power during the winter when we're running the heater.
- varjag 5y ago
  Outside of business uses they are not particularly popular.
- Arnt 5y ago
  Guessing at the intention behind the phrasing… would you buy a minivan if you worried that the resale value might be near zero? Would some minivan model still be your favourite model given that handicap? AIUI there's no expectation that selling a used combustion car will become illegal. But people don't have confidence that they'll get a high price (not even for the export market).
- lastofthemojito 5y ago
  Sure, but they're electric too: https://www.nissan.no/biler/nye-biler/e-nv200-evalia.html https://www.nissan.no/biler/nye-biler/e-nv200-evalia.html
  - kwhitefoot 5y ago
    The e-nv200 is mostly used as a van for electricians, plumbers, etc. Not many of them are fitted out for passengers, probably because the range is rubbish.
nabla9 5y ago
Direct bans are not optimal way to remove CO2. Norway is part of EU Emissions Trading System that is becoming very effective. The best way to cut CO2 emissions would be to make coal expensive. This can be done by requiring that all cars must be 100% carbon neutral. To be able to sell gas, companies have to buy carbon permits and hurt coal production. (100% carbon neutral might not be the endpoint. Requirement can grow to 200% or to any arbitrary number). Those who need gas cars could still use them.
- rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago
  The best way to cut CO2 emissions would be to _ban_ coal.
  - Arnt 5y ago
    Fine! Go ahead!
  - rjsw 5y ago
    Some countries [1] will resist that kind of ban. [1] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/20/poland-vows-to-keep-coalmine-open-despite-500000-a-day-ecj-fine https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/20/poland-vows-to...
  - nabla9 5y ago
    No. The best way to cut emissions is to make CO2 expensive. It's even better than banning coal.
    - rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago
      How can a ban cost less than the market price? A ban is like a giant tax, whose amount is set by fines and jail time in addition to the black-market cost of procuring the thing in the first place (which includes the cost of evading the police and paying for the violence that comes with crime). PS: we don't tax crime and genocides, do we?
  - imtringued 5y ago
lastofthemojito 5y ago
Headline: Norway bans gas cars in 2025 Quotes from the article: "This has led Norway to have the earliest target for the phaseout of new gas vehicle sales in the world – 2025" ... "(which, to be clear, is not a legal requirement yet, more of a soft target agreed upon by Norway’s government)" ... "Norway might even allow limited numbers of gas car sales to continue past 2025" So Norway isn't banning gas cars in 2025. Norway also likely isn't banning sales of new gas cars in 2025, they're incentivizing people to buy electric. But Electrek's gotta get those clicks.
- fallingknife 5y ago
  Yes, but when EV's win in the market, boy will they take credit.
  - sk2020 5y ago
    EVs are less than <5% of the global market. They are the Linux desktop of automobiles. Interesting and a passion for some, but always just a few years away.
    - fallingknife 5y ago
      They have like 20 moving parts vs. 2000 in an ICE, and no transmission. The technical superiority of EV's is nothing like Linux vs Windows / MacOS.
      - lastofthemojito 5y ago
        > no transmission Mostly single-speed transmissions but not exclusively: https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a28903274/porsche-taycan-transmission/ https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a28903274/porsche-taycan-t...
        throwaway0a5e 5y ago
        Yes there's a couple two speeds out there (I think we'll see more as EVs replace heavier vehicles) A single speed transmission can only really be called a transmission in a universe where cows are spherical.
beezischillin 5y ago
In my country (Eastern Europe) there are very generous subsidies now for buying an EV as a replacement for an older vehicle so I ended up going for that instead of buying a nice gas car. With gas prices (and the general economy) being the way they are I simply couldn't justify the increasing cost of gas alongside the lease. I'm looking forward to March/April when it arrives.
fallingknife 5y ago
Typical with these gas car future bans. The politicians set a date at which they assume EV's will be technically and economically superior and have already won in the market. Then they will credit their ban for the transition, even though they have done nothing. If they are wrong and gas cars are still being sold near the deadline, they will quietly extend it, because they are never going to actually force a sizeable population to give up their cars and lose an election.
- kgwgk 5y ago
  If they are economically superior here is thanks to politicians though.
  - fallingknife 5y ago
    Yeah I'll give you that. Norway has excellent policies on EV's. I just hate these symbolic "bans."
    - toomuchtodo 5y ago
      The bans are not symbolic. They are signals to automakers that there won't be a market for their legacy products. This gives them time to shift their supply chain towards producing EVs. The bans can always be pulled forward if the market evolves faster than anticipated. If EV sales in Norway continue to trend at 100% past April, Norway can pull forward its ban to "immediately." They could also accelerate petroleum station phase outs as it would not impact the EV fleet.
      - throwaway0a5e 5y ago
        >If EV sales in Norway continue to trend at 100% past April, Norway can pull forward its ban to "immediately. Why would they need to do that? If EV sales trend at ~100% nearly continuously then there is no reason to ban anything unless the goal of the ban is symbolic chest thumping or pandering.
sparsely 5y ago
Perhaps they could consider reducing their oil and gas production next.
- dboreham 5y ago
  Probably not since that's paying for the EV subsidies.
  - thehappypm 5y ago
    Using oil money to aggressively help the EV industry is an excellent thing. Emissions today, but no emissions tomorrow is a goal the whole world should agree on.
- simorley 5y ago
  People praise norway for EVs but always fail to mention Norways produces as much oil as saudi arabia on a per capita basis. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_production https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_produ...
- imtringued 5y ago
  You can exports the oil to fools. Gas is still necessary for heating.
alltakendamned 5y ago
I am curious how this works in the North during winter, where very low temperatures reduce battery capacity significantly. Also, not all roads are suitable for cars that are built for the city.
- dagw 5y ago
  Winters in much of Norway rarely get that cold. Certainly in and around Oslo, Bergen and Stavanger very low temperatures are rare and short lived. And while I'm sure there are some people who need a true off road vehicle, I see people happily drive their Model S and X on small gravel roads to their mountain cabins all the time.
- magicalhippo 5y ago
  > I am curious how this works in the North during winter We have a BMW i3 94Ah model. When it's not cold we get about 230km range. When it's fairly cold, -10C or below, that drops significantly. Not helped by my SO's requirement to not feel cold. Reported range is about 160km at worst (cold batteries). Still, we live in the city and it's been just fine for us. We just leave it connected in the garage over night and set the planned departure time in the morning. That way it's ready with heated batteries, which helps a lot. It hasn't bothered us so far. We knew the limitations going in, so we just plan a bit. Every now and then we get an extra 10-20 minute charging stop on our way back, meh. Being able to fill the tank at home, so to speak, is great though. So is the lack of engine noise when driving slow or in traffic. It quickly became clear that our next vehicle would definitely be another EV.
kwhitefoot 5y ago
Electrek is not a very reliable source of any news, they are the Daily Mail of the EV world, especially when it comes to headlines. As for the trend saying that there will be zero new ICE car registrations by April next year; well take that with a large pinch of salt.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
jimmaswell 5y ago
I'm glad I don't live there for many reasons, this being just one more since I like my classic cars. If the engine goes on my 300zx though I might do an EV conversion. It'd feel like a shame doing that to a manual though. Maybe I'd just sell it and get an automatic to do that to since nobody wants those anyway. Edit: apparently only a ban on sales, but everything car-related is obscenely expensive over there anyway.
toss1 5y ago
I'm wondering about the transition dynamics, and the likelihood of a step-change. Initially, petrol stations will see declining sales but still be profitable. But at some point, there will be few enough miles being driven in petrol-powerd cars that it will be come unprofitable. They will either need to find a new way of making money or close. This will rapidly turn the tables and range anxiety will become a feature of petrol cars - where on the trip can I find a filling station? There might be a period of substantially increased petrol prices to keep the stations afloat. This will result in petrol-powered automobiles becoming stranded assets. While this ideally happens slowly enough that most vehicles are used for their full useful lives, it seems more likely that this will be more of a step-change transition — and a lot of people will be left with big expensive lawn ornaments when the music stops. The other big question is when this will occur. The Norwegians are likely very well off in this regard, as I presume that they can still sell their petrol cars to other areas in the EU. But what about when these charts apply to entire markets like the EU or North America? Any insights?
1minusp 5y ago
How is Norway dealing with the resulting increase in electric demand, charging at peak times etc? Have there been investments in ripping/replacing distribution and transmission to account for increased demand? Clickbait-y title aside (other comments were pretty helpful to point this out), this sounds pretty positive.
fomine3 5y ago
How is it going about EV trucks in Norway?

122 points by underscore_ku 5y ago

It'll be interesting to see what happens to gas stations. Part of what makes gas cars so popular is the easy ability to refuel, since stations are ubiquitous. Once a tipping point is reached, most new homes will have the ability to charge cars, and old ones retrofitted, so people mostly charge at home. And gas stations will begin to dry up, making gas cars less desirable. That same pattern should follow in every country, so it will be useful to have Norway as a data point on what actually happens.

i_haz_rabies 5y ago
A street in my town (in Canada) already has 4 gas stations and there are 3 new ones being built. Granted, it is close to a major highway... but 7 gas stations in a 2km stretch seems crazy to me, especially given the (seemingly) inevitable shift to EVs.
- cmrdporcupine 5y ago
  It's especially obnoxious given that remediation of gas stations sites after the fact is extremely expensive. Or at least has been, maybe they're being built to a higher standard now.
- drannex 5y ago
  Sadly, that's rather common here in the US.
max937 5y ago
I remember reading that 7/11 (popular gas station in the US) makes most of its money from purchases inside the convenience store and not gas. But nevertheless, the gas is probably the main reason why most people stop by anyway.
- mimikatz 5y ago
  EVs are likely better for C-Stores like 7/11. People will have to wait longer more likely to shop, pick up food or some smokes.
  - phreeza 5y ago
    But you need more real estate for the same number of customers per day, so it's a trade off.
  - jondwillis 5y ago
    I have noticed that Wawa (mid-atlantic convenience store often paired with gas station) is starting to set up a supercharger network, sometimes even when there is no gas station already existing. Anecdotally, I agree with your assessment that EVs will cause more purchases.
  - dragontamer 5y ago
    I've never spent more than 5 minutes in a 7/11 in my life. The point of those stores is to get in and get out quickly. It's the exact opposite of an EV charging station. In fact, most 7/11 in my area enforce the 'no loitering' rule. I don't even think that 7/11 managers want you there for more than 5 minutes. Restaurants or shopping malls I'll stay for 2 hours regularly, and a few level 2 chargers can actually get me 50 miles of charge in that time. That's where the EV chargers should be.
- dhosek 5y ago
  That's the case with pretty much every gas station. The station operator's margin on the gasoline itself is pretty close to zero.
- seanmcdirmid 5y ago
  Some 7-11s are gas stations in the USA, but most aren’t, so I’m not sure how to judge this claim. I definitely wouldn’t consider 7-11 to be a popular place for gas like chevron or shell.
  - 5y ago
josefresco 5y ago
> And gas stations will begin to dry up Will they though? I was under the impression "gas stations" make very little from the gas itself, and instead make most from the store (food/drinks etc.) Recently they replaced a very simple and old gas station in my town with a completely new station featuring a robust store. The volume of business to that station has probably increased 10x.
- snewman 5y ago
  I imagine the reason they make so much from the store is that the gas station is drawing people in? It's expensive to build and maintain the gas station itself, they wouldn't do it unless it was an important contributor to the business model.
- danhor 5y ago
  Operating a gas station is expensive, so many will ditch the "gas" part. Often the primary draw of gas stations is the gas, not the store, for which there are better alternatives. And since operating an EV-Charger is pretty easy & cheap compared to gas, there will be many stores adding EV-Chargers in the parking lot. Here in germany, there are already a few supermarket chains (primarily ALDI) that have EV-Chargers on their parking lots.
- dharmab 5y ago
  I used to work for a gas station chain's corporate office in the mid '10s. In general the business was 50/50 gas and food sales, with gas having higher volumes and food having higher margins. The business strategy was to expand food sales and b2b gas and diesel sales (i.e. fuel for company fleets). There was also some niche targets like powersports (e.g. ethanol free fuel for classic vehicles and older recreational powersports equipment).
- walrus01 5y ago
  I can see a business model in setting up something like one of the large outdoor/weather resistant Japanese vending machines near a bank of chargers. Without staff. https://www.google.com/search?q=japanese+vending+machine+large&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiLlvmfq5XzAhUMVN8KHeHIBXcQ_AUoAXoECAEQAw&biw=1680&bih=940&dpr=2 https://www.google.com/search?q=japanese+vending+machine+lar...
toomuchtodo 5y ago
They will turn into vending machines with a parking lot and bathroom.
JJMcJ 5y ago
And what happens to people in apartment complexes, and even more so, those who park on the street. Oh, that's just "the poors", they can drive to a gas station 10 miles a way, I suppose.
- kwhitefoot 5y ago
  New apartment buildings here in Norway have to have off street, usually underground parking, with charging facilities. Not much help to people who park their cars in the street but that is not so common here in Norway even in cities, most apartment complexes already have off street parking
- cm2187 5y ago
  And wait 1h on the side of the road that their car charges.
- wbsss4412 5y ago
  Every time I read an EV discussion I see comments feigning concern for poor people, even though they are the demographic least likely to own cars at all. If people are actually concerned about the poor, the conversation should be about good public transit, pedestrian and bike infrastructure-things that actually make a difference for people with less means.
  - 988747 5y ago
    Depends on the country I guess. In Poland poor people usually own cars, just very old and cheap ones, like 15 years old VW Golf with resale value of $500. There are very few people here who can't afford any car at all. If ICE cars are bannned completely, having to switch to extremely expensive EV will be a problem for them.
    - wbsss4412 5y ago
      Of course, and it’s similar in the United States. I’m not saying it’s not a matter of concern at all, it’s just that here in the US we’ve absolutely hamstrung all other modes of transportation besides cars, which is not helpful for poor people, not to mention all of the many other policies we have that adversely effect the poor. It’s just in this one discussion that people come out of the woodwork suddenly proclaiming how terrible anti ice policies are for the poor, and never with any suggestion for compromise eg “if we do this, it would have an adverse effect on the poor, we could mitigate that with X”. Therefore it’s hard to read it as anything other than disingenuous.
bdcravens 5y ago
I think that as gas use dries up, gas stations will being installing charging stations (since it takes longer to charge up, it creates an even more captive market for their products in the store) (this of course is based on the idea that charging away from home will still be necessary, which I think it will be)
- kwhitefoot 5y ago
  Circle K and Esso in Norway are already doing this.
willvarfar 5y ago
Almost all gas stations across the nordics are self service and only sell gas. Visiting America, I was completely flummoxed by attendants and tipping and other antiquated things. This was coined “bullshit jobs” recently. I think Norway probably points at where the rest of the world is slowly going to go.
- Happycars 5y ago
  Only sell gas? What? I've never ever seen a Norwegian gas station that doesn't have a small grocery store/kiosk attached, plus usually a cleaning hall etc.
  - willvarfar 5y ago
    https://electrek.co/2020/02/17/fuel-retail-chains-are-visiting-norway-to-ponder-a-future-when-gas-stations-dont-exist/ https://electrek.co/2020/02/17/fuel-retail-chains-are-visiti... is another article on the same site talking about how gas stations are increasingly unmanned. There are over 100 unmanned uno-x in Norway, for example. Sweden is even further ahead. I have to think hard to recall any Swedish stations near me of any brand that isn’t self service or has a shop. There are still some shops with statoil in Sweden, which is Norwegian… but so is ST1, which is entirely unmanned.
    - Happycars 5y ago
      Your claim that "Almost all gas stations across the nordics are self service and only sell gas." is still wildly inaccurate. For Norway it seems to be roughly 10 % unmanned, and like I said, this is new to me so it is a fairly recent change.
Happycars 5y ago
This is purely anecdotal, but I live in Oslo where the majority of cars are now electric. I have seen no reduction in traffic to the neighboring Shell station in the past decade. As far as I know it doesn't offer charging, there are charging stations a few blocks away and this is in an urban area in our biggest city. My guess is that their daytime customers are people dropping by for a quick bite when parking at a grocery store is too much effort. Stores aren't allowed to be open for the night, so the gas station doesn't have any competition for nighttime customers.
avrionov 5y ago
Here is a very good essay from a few years ago by Ben Evans [1] about the second order consequences of the electric cars. [1] https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2017/3/20/cars-and-s https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2017/3/20/cars-and-s...
- carapace 5y ago
  Your link 404'd for me. https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2017/3/20/cars-and-second-order-consequences https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2017/3/20/cars-and-s...
sys_64738 5y ago
This will be the tipping point if it gets hard to find gasoline stations. I won't buy an EV until the very end as the technology is so basic right now. It has to improve and I think we need to get to the point of driving thousands of miles on one charge before it'll be wholly accepted.

sgarrity 5y ago

Does anyone in Norway drive a minivan?

dhosek 5y ago
Not in Norway, but my wife and I have the Chrysler Pacifica plug-in hybrid (our only car). We average about 1 in 6 miles on gasoline power. With more widely distributed charging infrastructure and a bigger battery we could easily make that 0 in 6. This is living in the suburbs of Chicago.
- dhosek 5y ago
  I'd add that a not insignificant part of that 1 in 6 is the car choosing to use gasoline power to keep the gas engine operable. It also likes to switch to gas power during the winter when we're running the heater.
varjag 5y ago
Outside of business uses they are not particularly popular.
Arnt 5y ago
Guessing at the intention behind the phrasing… would you buy a minivan if you worried that the resale value might be near zero? Would some minivan model still be your favourite model given that handicap? AIUI there's no expectation that selling a used combustion car will become illegal. But people don't have confidence that they'll get a high price (not even for the export market).
lastofthemojito 5y ago
Sure, but they're electric too: https://www.nissan.no/biler/nye-biler/e-nv200-evalia.html https://www.nissan.no/biler/nye-biler/e-nv200-evalia.html
- kwhitefoot 5y ago
  The e-nv200 is mostly used as a van for electricians, plumbers, etc. Not many of them are fitted out for passengers, probably because the range is rubbish.

nabla9 5y ago

Direct bans are not optimal way to remove CO2. Norway is part of EU Emissions Trading System that is becoming very effective. The best way to cut CO2 emissions would be to make coal expensive. This can be done by requiring that all cars must be 100% carbon neutral. To be able to sell gas, companies have to buy carbon permits and hurt coal production. (100% carbon neutral might not be the endpoint. Requirement can grow to 200% or to any arbitrary number). Those who need gas cars could still use them.

rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago
The best way to cut CO2 emissions would be to _ban_ coal.
- Arnt 5y ago
  Fine! Go ahead!
- rjsw 5y ago
  Some countries [1] will resist that kind of ban. [1] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/20/poland-vows-to-keep-coalmine-open-despite-500000-a-day-ecj-fine https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/20/poland-vows-to...
- nabla9 5y ago
  No. The best way to cut emissions is to make CO2 expensive. It's even better than banning coal.
  - rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago
    How can a ban cost less than the market price? A ban is like a giant tax, whose amount is set by fines and jail time in addition to the black-market cost of procuring the thing in the first place (which includes the cost of evading the police and paying for the violence that comes with crime). PS: we don't tax crime and genocides, do we?
- imtringued 5y ago

lastofthemojito 5y ago

Headline: Norway bans gas cars in 2025 Quotes from the article: "This has led Norway to have the earliest target for the phaseout of new gas vehicle sales in the world – 2025" ... "(which, to be clear, is not a legal requirement yet, more of a soft target agreed upon by Norway’s government)" ... "Norway might even allow limited numbers of gas car sales to continue past 2025" So Norway isn't banning gas cars in 2025. Norway also likely isn't banning sales of new gas cars in 2025, they're incentivizing people to buy electric. But Electrek's gotta get those clicks.

fallingknife 5y ago
Yes, but when EV's win in the market, boy will they take credit.
- sk2020 5y ago
  EVs are less than <5% of the global market. They are the Linux desktop of automobiles. Interesting and a passion for some, but always just a few years away.
  - fallingknife 5y ago
    They have like 20 moving parts vs. 2000 in an ICE, and no transmission. The technical superiority of EV's is nothing like Linux vs Windows / MacOS.
    - lastofthemojito 5y ago
      > no transmission Mostly single-speed transmissions but not exclusively: https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a28903274/porsche-taycan-transmission/ https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a28903274/porsche-taycan-t...
      - throwaway0a5e 5y ago
        Yes there's a couple two speeds out there (I think we'll see more as EVs replace heavier vehicles) A single speed transmission can only really be called a transmission in a universe where cows are spherical.

beezischillin 5y ago

In my country (Eastern Europe) there are very generous subsidies now for buying an EV as a replacement for an older vehicle so I ended up going for that instead of buying a nice gas car. With gas prices (and the general economy) being the way they are I simply couldn't justify the increasing cost of gas alongside the lease. I'm looking forward to March/April when it arrives.

fallingknife 5y ago

Typical with these gas car future bans. The politicians set a date at which they assume EV's will be technically and economically superior and have already won in the market. Then they will credit their ban for the transition, even though they have done nothing. If they are wrong and gas cars are still being sold near the deadline, they will quietly extend it, because they are never going to actually force a sizeable population to give up their cars and lose an election.

kgwgk 5y ago
If they are economically superior here is thanks to politicians though.
- fallingknife 5y ago
  Yeah I'll give you that. Norway has excellent policies on EV's. I just hate these symbolic "bans."
  - toomuchtodo 5y ago
    The bans are not symbolic. They are signals to automakers that there won't be a market for their legacy products. This gives them time to shift their supply chain towards producing EVs. The bans can always be pulled forward if the market evolves faster than anticipated. If EV sales in Norway continue to trend at 100% past April, Norway can pull forward its ban to "immediately." They could also accelerate petroleum station phase outs as it would not impact the EV fleet.
    - throwaway0a5e 5y ago
      >If EV sales in Norway continue to trend at 100% past April, Norway can pull forward its ban to "immediately. Why would they need to do that? If EV sales trend at ~100% nearly continuously then there is no reason to ban anything unless the goal of the ban is symbolic chest thumping or pandering.

sparsely 5y ago

Perhaps they could consider reducing their oil and gas production next.

dboreham 5y ago
Probably not since that's paying for the EV subsidies.
- thehappypm 5y ago
  Using oil money to aggressively help the EV industry is an excellent thing. Emissions today, but no emissions tomorrow is a goal the whole world should agree on.
simorley 5y ago
People praise norway for EVs but always fail to mention Norways produces as much oil as saudi arabia on a per capita basis. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_production https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_produ...
imtringued 5y ago
You can exports the oil to fools. Gas is still necessary for heating.

alltakendamned 5y ago

I am curious how this works in the North during winter, where very low temperatures reduce battery capacity significantly. Also, not all roads are suitable for cars that are built for the city.

dagw 5y ago
Winters in much of Norway rarely get that cold. Certainly in and around Oslo, Bergen and Stavanger very low temperatures are rare and short lived. And while I'm sure there are some people who need a true off road vehicle, I see people happily drive their Model S and X on small gravel roads to their mountain cabins all the time.
magicalhippo 5y ago
> I am curious how this works in the North during winter We have a BMW i3 94Ah model. When it's not cold we get about 230km range. When it's fairly cold, -10C or below, that drops significantly. Not helped by my SO's requirement to not feel cold. Reported range is about 160km at worst (cold batteries). Still, we live in the city and it's been just fine for us. We just leave it connected in the garage over night and set the planned departure time in the morning. That way it's ready with heated batteries, which helps a lot. It hasn't bothered us so far. We knew the limitations going in, so we just plan a bit. Every now and then we get an extra 10-20 minute charging stop on our way back, meh. Being able to fill the tank at home, so to speak, is great though. So is the lack of engine noise when driving slow or in traffic. It quickly became clear that our next vehicle would definitely be another EV.

kwhitefoot 5y ago

Electrek is not a very reliable source of any news, they are the Daily Mail of the EV world, especially when it comes to headlines. As for the trend saying that there will be zero new ICE car registrations by April next year; well take that with a large pinch of salt.

deleted 5y ago

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jimmaswell 5y ago

I'm glad I don't live there for many reasons, this being just one more since I like my classic cars. If the engine goes on my 300zx though I might do an EV conversion. It'd feel like a shame doing that to a manual though. Maybe I'd just sell it and get an automatic to do that to since nobody wants those anyway. Edit: apparently only a ban on sales, but everything car-related is obscenely expensive over there anyway.

toss1 5y ago

I'm wondering about the transition dynamics, and the likelihood of a step-change. Initially, petrol stations will see declining sales but still be profitable. But at some point, there will be few enough miles being driven in petrol-powerd cars that it will be come unprofitable. They will either need to find a new way of making money or close. This will rapidly turn the tables and range anxiety will become a feature of petrol cars - where on the trip can I find a filling station? There might be a period of substantially increased petrol prices to keep the stations afloat. This will result in petrol-powered automobiles becoming stranded assets. While this ideally happens slowly enough that most vehicles are used for their full useful lives, it seems more likely that this will be more of a step-change transition — and a lot of people will be left with big expensive lawn ornaments when the music stops. The other big question is when this will occur. The Norwegians are likely very well off in this regard, as I presume that they can still sell their petrol cars to other areas in the EU. But what about when these charts apply to entire markets like the EU or North America? Any insights?

1minusp 5y ago

How is Norway dealing with the resulting increase in electric demand, charging at peak times etc? Have there been investments in ripping/replacing distribution and transmission to account for increased demand? Clickbait-y title aside (other comments were pretty helpful to point this out), this sounds pretty positive.

fomine3 5y ago

How is it going about EV trucks in Norway?