6 ms·

And, for a selfish western pitch: reduce the chance that bad new variants develop.

swader999 5y ago
How will these vaccines that don't produce immunity lead to less severe variants? If they mute severity of illness they will lead to more severe variants. This is basic.
- dtech 5y ago
  They do provide immunity in 95% (conservative) of cases, so it massively reduces the population that mutations can happen in.
  - swader999 5y ago
    They reduce severity of illness, and don't produce sterilizing immunity and eliminate transmission. And that's the problem, if you pick up a nasty mutation but because of vaccine you are able to still function, you are more likely to be out and about spreading it. And when your limited immunity wanes in a few months this mutinous bastard copy you pushed on the masses may come back to bite you in the ass. Maybe not though if you got your booster in time and if they designed it to match. Better hope your country went with the gold subscription.
    - technothrasher 5y ago
      What data are you referencing to claim that the vaccines do not provide some immunity? But importantly, the vaccines do reduce transmission. See the below study along with others. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2107717 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2107717 Admittedly, one weakness of the above study is that it took place before Delta was widespread. There isn't a lot of data yet on how much the vaccines reduce transmission with Delta, but the likelihood is that they still do even if to a lesser degree.
      - swader999 5y ago
        Reducing transmission isn't good enough! If you have an R naught above one you're still in trouble. It's common knowledge that countries with highest vaccination rates have spikes in cases right now. Israel and Gibraltar for example. Herd immunity for this was always impossible.
        fabian2k 5y ago
        Israel isn't among the countries with the highest vaccination rates anymore, quite a few other countries have overtaken it.
        swader999 5y ago
        Ok well you can't beat Gibraltar at 99%. But you look at other countries. New Zealand is a good one. Their hospitals are getting swamped with kids right now with severe RSV. Why? They've had their immune systems degraded from some of the most severe lockdowns I the planet. And admittedly they aren't in a covid spike but the effective lockdown has created other problems.
        nradov 5y ago
        This shouldn't be down voted. It appears to be correct and is a subject of active concern in NZ. https://www.auckland.ac.nz/en/news/2021/08/02/fight-against-rsv-flu.html https://www.auckland.ac.nz/en/news/2021/08/02/fight-against-...
        SketchySeaBeast 5y ago
        I down-voted because that has nothing to do with a "degraded immune systems". Many of the more common respiratory viruses also died out in New Zealand with the quarantine. Kids never got a chance to develop immunity to those particular diseases previously and now it's coming on in a wave as they are reintroduced. It's not that their response is special, in normal circumstances kids would have gotten sick and been hospitalized, that it's happening all at once is.
  - meragrin_ 5y ago
    > They do provide immunity in 95% (conservative) of cases So not conservative. Real world data has all of them at under 80% now. https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/covid-19-vaccine-comparison https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/covid-19-vaccine-compariso...
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
- orwin 5y ago
  I heard against the Delta variant, RNA vaccines help divide the chance of contaminating others by at least two, even if you're asymptomatic (because basically, the virus last half the tine in your body). And also, since you're contaminated for less time, there is fewer chance of a variant popping out of a vaccinated person. Take it as someone who heard someone talk about it, did not research himself (because i don't really care) and isn't really sure of what the truth is. See this comment as a clue if this stuff interest you.
  - shucksley 5y ago
    Halving is not good enough when the infectivity is very high. The Vietnam study showed that 49/69 "trained doctors and nurses" gave the virus to each other despite being vaccinated. God only knows how many patients they infected. see https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3897733 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3897733 for details. (But this is HN, and I will be downvoted into oblivion. Carry on folks. Keep ignoring the data.)
Tepix 5y ago
You are not protected againts new mutations just because they originate from another place in the world. You are not reducing the chances for new mutations. Keeping the vaccine to yourself will not help you.
- ericb 5y ago
  I think you're misunderstanding the intent of the parent post. They are saying letting vaccines go to the rest of the world is still the right course of action even if your motives were purely selfish. By reducing the number of infections elsewhere, the virus has fewer chances to mutate and return to and endanger you.
  - emn13 5y ago
    While in principle that's clearly sound - fewer viral particles means fewer future variants appears to be the consensus opinion - I'm skeptical that the decision to recommend boosters after 8 months will have a measurable impact on that. First of all, even under rosy vaccine acceptance trajectories that's not going to be many doses vs. the unvaccinated population; secondly, you need 1 dose for a booster, yet 2 for a full vaccination; thirdly, the data for hospitalisations may not be in, but for mere infections it is clearly showing a reduction in efficacy well before a that 8 month mininum so the opportunity cost of not vaccinating half a person will be offset in terms of transmission by the booster dose; fourthly not all vaccines are easily distributed, and as long as the US needs to have a readily available supply to entice the unvaccinated stragglers, you might as well use doses nearing expiration dates for boosters rather than throwing them away; fifth: we're not at 8 months yet for most people, and if the minimum delay is 8 months the average might be considerably more such that by the time this matters vaccine production should be higher and thus the loss relatively less impactful. Some of those effects might be trivial or zero, but at the very least the small number of doses overall affected probably isn't. I'd be really surprised if the US reaches 100 million booster doses by next spring; and even if we did that's just not a huge number if your aim is to reduce transmission (as opposed to suffering).
- gitanovic 5y ago
  I think he is stating the exact opposite: to actually give doses to those countries without, exactly for this reason
gitanovic 5y ago
Was going to answer to say exactly this. The more vaccinated, the merrier the world with less variants
- mythrwy 5y ago
  What if it works the opposite though? Simple evolutionary biology suggests resistance develops from roadblocks or mechanisms to stifle. We see it all the time in antibiotic resistance, resistance of insects to pesticides used in crops, all kinds of areas. I don't see a reason this case would be different.
  - gitanovic 5y ago
    because you are giving the virus less chances to replicate and therefore less chances at mutation I might be wrong, but it seems obvious to me that this should reduce variants

How will these vaccines that don't produce immunity lead to less severe variants? If they mute severity of illness they will lead to more severe variants. This is basic.

dtech 5y ago
They do provide immunity in 95% (conservative) of cases, so it massively reduces the population that mutations can happen in.
- swader999 5y ago
  They reduce severity of illness, and don't produce sterilizing immunity and eliminate transmission. And that's the problem, if you pick up a nasty mutation but because of vaccine you are able to still function, you are more likely to be out and about spreading it. And when your limited immunity wanes in a few months this mutinous bastard copy you pushed on the masses may come back to bite you in the ass. Maybe not though if you got your booster in time and if they designed it to match. Better hope your country went with the gold subscription.
  - technothrasher 5y ago
    What data are you referencing to claim that the vaccines do not provide some immunity? But importantly, the vaccines do reduce transmission. See the below study along with others. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2107717 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2107717 Admittedly, one weakness of the above study is that it took place before Delta was widespread. There isn't a lot of data yet on how much the vaccines reduce transmission with Delta, but the likelihood is that they still do even if to a lesser degree.
    - swader999 5y ago
      Reducing transmission isn't good enough! If you have an R naught above one you're still in trouble. It's common knowledge that countries with highest vaccination rates have spikes in cases right now. Israel and Gibraltar for example. Herd immunity for this was always impossible.
      - fabian2k 5y ago
        Israel isn't among the countries with the highest vaccination rates anymore, quite a few other countries have overtaken it.
        swader999 5y ago
        Ok well you can't beat Gibraltar at 99%. But you look at other countries. New Zealand is a good one. Their hospitals are getting swamped with kids right now with severe RSV. Why? They've had their immune systems degraded from some of the most severe lockdowns I the planet. And admittedly they aren't in a covid spike but the effective lockdown has created other problems.
        nradov 5y ago
        This shouldn't be down voted. It appears to be correct and is a subject of active concern in NZ. https://www.auckland.ac.nz/en/news/2021/08/02/fight-against-rsv-flu.html https://www.auckland.ac.nz/en/news/2021/08/02/fight-against-...
        SketchySeaBeast 5y ago
        I down-voted because that has nothing to do with a "degraded immune systems". Many of the more common respiratory viruses also died out in New Zealand with the quarantine. Kids never got a chance to develop immunity to those particular diseases previously and now it's coming on in a wave as they are reintroduced. It's not that their response is special, in normal circumstances kids would have gotten sick and been hospitalized, that it's happening all at once is.
- meragrin_ 5y ago
  > They do provide immunity in 95% (conservative) of cases So not conservative. Real world data has all of them at under 80% now. https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/covid-19-vaccine-comparison https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/covid-19-vaccine-compariso...
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
orwin 5y ago
I heard against the Delta variant, RNA vaccines help divide the chance of contaminating others by at least two, even if you're asymptomatic (because basically, the virus last half the tine in your body). And also, since you're contaminated for less time, there is fewer chance of a variant popping out of a vaccinated person. Take it as someone who heard someone talk about it, did not research himself (because i don't really care) and isn't really sure of what the truth is. See this comment as a clue if this stuff interest you.
- shucksley 5y ago
  Halving is not good enough when the infectivity is very high. The Vietnam study showed that 49/69 "trained doctors and nurses" gave the virus to each other despite being vaccinated. God only knows how many patients they infected. see https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3897733 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3897733 for details. (But this is HN, and I will be downvoted into oblivion. Carry on folks. Keep ignoring the data.)

Tepix 5y ago

You are not protected againts new mutations just because they originate from another place in the world. You are not reducing the chances for new mutations. Keeping the vaccine to yourself will not help you.

ericb 5y ago
I think you're misunderstanding the intent of the parent post. They are saying letting vaccines go to the rest of the world is still the right course of action even if your motives were purely selfish. By reducing the number of infections elsewhere, the virus has fewer chances to mutate and return to and endanger you.
- emn13 5y ago
  While in principle that's clearly sound - fewer viral particles means fewer future variants appears to be the consensus opinion - I'm skeptical that the decision to recommend boosters after 8 months will have a measurable impact on that. First of all, even under rosy vaccine acceptance trajectories that's not going to be many doses vs. the unvaccinated population; secondly, you need 1 dose for a booster, yet 2 for a full vaccination; thirdly, the data for hospitalisations may not be in, but for mere infections it is clearly showing a reduction in efficacy well before a that 8 month mininum so the opportunity cost of not vaccinating half a person will be offset in terms of transmission by the booster dose; fourthly not all vaccines are easily distributed, and as long as the US needs to have a readily available supply to entice the unvaccinated stragglers, you might as well use doses nearing expiration dates for boosters rather than throwing them away; fifth: we're not at 8 months yet for most people, and if the minimum delay is 8 months the average might be considerably more such that by the time this matters vaccine production should be higher and thus the loss relatively less impactful. Some of those effects might be trivial or zero, but at the very least the small number of doses overall affected probably isn't. I'd be really surprised if the US reaches 100 million booster doses by next spring; and even if we did that's just not a huge number if your aim is to reduce transmission (as opposed to suffering).
gitanovic 5y ago
I think he is stating the exact opposite: to actually give doses to those countries without, exactly for this reason

gitanovic 5y ago

Was going to answer to say exactly this. The more vaccinated, the merrier the world with less variants

mythrwy 5y ago
What if it works the opposite though? Simple evolutionary biology suggests resistance develops from roadblocks or mechanisms to stifle. We see it all the time in antibiotic resistance, resistance of insects to pesticides used in crops, all kinds of areas. I don't see a reason this case would be different.
- gitanovic 5y ago
  because you are giving the virus less chances to replicate and therefore less chances at mutation I might be wrong, but it seems obvious to me that this should reduce variants