6 ms·

Western countries irrevocably recognizing Taiwan would be a start.

by brnt 5y ago

ff7c11 5y ago
Don't do this. People live in Taiwan. It's not fair to use them as pawns. Keep the status quo rather than provoke war and chaos.
- serf 5y ago
  > Don't do this. People live in Taiwan. It's not fair to use them as pawns. Keep the status quo rather than provoke war and chaos. until what point? inaction is generally one of the biggest causes of death and suffering in historical warfare.
  - refenestrator 5y ago
    That's really easy to say when it's not you or your kids on the front line. Beyond just Taiwan, the last cold war kept the third world in a constant state of proxy war between the major powers, costing millions of lives in the short-term and delaying development in the long term. Worth considering if you're in favor of more of that in the name of human rights.
    - tablespoon 5y ago
      > ...the last cold war kept the third world in a constant state of proxy war between the major powers, costing millions of lives in the short-term and delaying development in the long term. And the alternative might have been "let the Soviets win." That choice would have definitely been a way to avoid war and achieve a kind of "peace."
      - refenestrator 5y ago
        What happened when we finally left Vietnam? Absolutely nothing, that's what. Lot fewer people dying from napalm. We had to support one-way helicopter rides under Pinochet and contras gunning down nuns? Or else the soviets win? If it's about national pride and staying on top, fine, but don't tell me it's human rights with that record. The Chinese haven't acted with force outside of what they consider their soil/sea in like 40 years. Xi is pretty worrying but until he starts doing that, let's not agitate for killing a bunch of people just in case.
        tablespoon 5y ago
        > but don't tell me it's human rights. The world is a messy place and at many times it may be impossible to pursue that goal in an entirely consistent manner. There's also the other factor of self-preservation. It's not a good strategy to cede advantages to your opponent and hope a deus ex machina saves you in the end. > The Chinese haven't acted with force outside of what they consider their soil/sea in like 40 years. Xi is pretty worrying but until he starts doing that, let's not agitate for killing a bunch of people just in case. Who's advocating for a bunch of killing? I think the main (perhaps only) thing I'm seeing advocated for here is diplomatic recognition.
        refenestrator 5y ago
        As of right now, there's no battlefield. China's official doctrine has been non-interference in other nations since Mao and they've mostly stuck to it with a few aberrations like a 30 day war in Vietnam. Xi has been pushing the limits internally and maybe one day that turns external but people here are talking about pre-emptive cold war. EDIT: diplomatic recognition is a purely symbolic move, and in this case the symbol is a middle finger to China. I'd argue the upsides are limited, but I was more objecting to the general theme of china hawkishness that points towards a new cold war.
        dustintrex 5y ago
        China's official doctrine is also that Taiwan is a part of China, and the status of Taiwan is purely an internal affair.
        refenestrator 5y ago
        That's true, but if it ends there, then it's not a vital matter of self-defense for us. Honestly, not even that important in terms of balance of power provided we get that TSMC plant up in Arizona first. What it IS, is a grievous insult to our insistence on being the last word in international affairs.
- cabalamat 5y ago
  I bet loads of people said the same thing when Britain and France gave the Sudetenland to Germany. That didn't work out very well for them, and it was only because Germany and Russia fell out and fought each other that Britain won that war; if not for that it's entirely possible that democracy would not have survived at the world would be a very different place today.
Kognito 5y ago
I suspect if this happened, it’d trigger an invasion by the CCP just to save face.
- ohazi 5y ago
  This would absolutely never happen, but if we were serious about completely removing the possibility of a Chinese mainland invasion of Taiwan, we could just publicly give Taiwan some nukes. It would be a global political shitstorm, but even mainland China would not be stupid enough to invade after that. Nuclear proliferation may be bad for all sorts of reasons, but MAD really does appear to work. Also Taiwan already has nuclear power plants, so it's not that crazy. They are capable of developing nuclear weapons on their own if they really wanted to.
  - skissane 5y ago
    > we could just publicly give Taiwan some nukes US would never do that, it would violate Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Some non-nuclear NATO countries do host US nuclear weapons, but they are legally and physically under US control. In an actual nuclear war, the US would release these nuclear weapons to their allies – at which point the US would have indeed violated the treaty, but in a nuclear war who cares? So in principle the US could station US-controlled nuclear weapons in Taiwan, and publicly announce they have done so. But it would be an extremely risky move – basically the Cuban Missile Crisis all over again, but this time with the US playing the role of the Soviet Union. Given the extreme risk of such a move, I doubt the US is going to make it.
    - cabalamat 5y ago
      > US would never do that, it would violate Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The US unlikely to be enormously bothered about violating treaties if it finds doing so in its interest. > Given the extreme risk of such a move What exactly is China going to do? Try to break the US-led world order? They're doing that already!
      - 5y ago
warning26 5y ago
It's an interesting idea, but it would amount to calling China's bluff. China has stated that they would definitely commit to a ground invasion of Taiwan if the US recognized it. The question is -- how serious are they about that? Personally, I think they'd go for it. They've been itching to take over Taiwan by force anyway.
- bpodgursky 5y ago
  > China has stated that they would definitely commit to a ground invasion of Taiwan if the US recognized it. I don't believe this is true. IIRC they've implied they would invade if Taiwan declared itself independent.
  - nradov 5y ago
    China has more than just implied it. They directly stated that a declaration of independence by Taiwan means war. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55851052 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55851052
- cabalamat 5y ago
  > Personally, I think they'd go for it. If there were sizable numbers of US troops on Taiwan, I don't think they'd attack. They don't want a major confrontation, at least not yet.
  - tablespoon 5y ago
    > If there were sizable numbers of US troops on Taiwan, I don't think they'd attack. They don't want a major confrontation, at least not yet. There's a decent chance at this point that all those troops would do is hold the airport for a rushed evacuation mission.
    - hker 5y ago
      US is prioritizing South China Sea and Taiwan Strait after its exit from Afghanistan. US sails ship through South China Sea days after China institutes new maritime ID rules [1] [1]: https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/08/politics/us-south-china-sea-maritime-id-rules/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/08/politics/us-south-china-sea-m...
mensetmanusman 5y ago
We are playing the long game, eventually the warmongering Chinese leaders will be gone.
- cabalamat 5y ago
  China doesn't want war, it wants status. They see the last 200 years as a reversal of the natural order of things, and want China to be top dog again. They literally see themselves as the center of the world: Zhongguo means "central country".
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]

Western countries irrevocably recognizing Taiwan would be a start.

by brnt 5y ago

Western countries irrevocably recognizing Taiwan would be a start.

Don't do this. People live in Taiwan. It's not fair to use them as pawns. Keep the status quo rather than provoke war and chaos.

serf 5y ago
> Don't do this. People live in Taiwan. It's not fair to use them as pawns. Keep the status quo rather than provoke war and chaos. until what point? inaction is generally one of the biggest causes of death and suffering in historical warfare.
- refenestrator 5y ago
  That's really easy to say when it's not you or your kids on the front line. Beyond just Taiwan, the last cold war kept the third world in a constant state of proxy war between the major powers, costing millions of lives in the short-term and delaying development in the long term. Worth considering if you're in favor of more of that in the name of human rights.
  - tablespoon 5y ago
    > ...the last cold war kept the third world in a constant state of proxy war between the major powers, costing millions of lives in the short-term and delaying development in the long term. And the alternative might have been "let the Soviets win." That choice would have definitely been a way to avoid war and achieve a kind of "peace."
    - refenestrator 5y ago
      What happened when we finally left Vietnam? Absolutely nothing, that's what. Lot fewer people dying from napalm. We had to support one-way helicopter rides under Pinochet and contras gunning down nuns? Or else the soviets win? If it's about national pride and staying on top, fine, but don't tell me it's human rights with that record. The Chinese haven't acted with force outside of what they consider their soil/sea in like 40 years. Xi is pretty worrying but until he starts doing that, let's not agitate for killing a bunch of people just in case.
      - tablespoon 5y ago
        > but don't tell me it's human rights. The world is a messy place and at many times it may be impossible to pursue that goal in an entirely consistent manner. There's also the other factor of self-preservation. It's not a good strategy to cede advantages to your opponent and hope a deus ex machina saves you in the end. > The Chinese haven't acted with force outside of what they consider their soil/sea in like 40 years. Xi is pretty worrying but until he starts doing that, let's not agitate for killing a bunch of people just in case. Who's advocating for a bunch of killing? I think the main (perhaps only) thing I'm seeing advocated for here is diplomatic recognition.
        refenestrator 5y ago
        As of right now, there's no battlefield. China's official doctrine has been non-interference in other nations since Mao and they've mostly stuck to it with a few aberrations like a 30 day war in Vietnam. Xi has been pushing the limits internally and maybe one day that turns external but people here are talking about pre-emptive cold war. EDIT: diplomatic recognition is a purely symbolic move, and in this case the symbol is a middle finger to China. I'd argue the upsides are limited, but I was more objecting to the general theme of china hawkishness that points towards a new cold war.
        dustintrex 5y ago
        China's official doctrine is also that Taiwan is a part of China, and the status of Taiwan is purely an internal affair.
        refenestrator 5y ago
        That's true, but if it ends there, then it's not a vital matter of self-defense for us. Honestly, not even that important in terms of balance of power provided we get that TSMC plant up in Arizona first. What it IS, is a grievous insult to our insistence on being the last word in international affairs.
cabalamat 5y ago
I bet loads of people said the same thing when Britain and France gave the Sudetenland to Germany. That didn't work out very well for them, and it was only because Germany and Russia fell out and fought each other that Britain won that war; if not for that it's entirely possible that democracy would not have survived at the world would be a very different place today.

Kognito 5y ago

I suspect if this happened, it’d trigger an invasion by the CCP just to save face.

ohazi 5y ago
This would absolutely never happen, but if we were serious about completely removing the possibility of a Chinese mainland invasion of Taiwan, we could just publicly give Taiwan some nukes. It would be a global political shitstorm, but even mainland China would not be stupid enough to invade after that. Nuclear proliferation may be bad for all sorts of reasons, but MAD really does appear to work. Also Taiwan already has nuclear power plants, so it's not that crazy. They are capable of developing nuclear weapons on their own if they really wanted to.
- skissane 5y ago
  > we could just publicly give Taiwan some nukes US would never do that, it would violate Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Some non-nuclear NATO countries do host US nuclear weapons, but they are legally and physically under US control. In an actual nuclear war, the US would release these nuclear weapons to their allies – at which point the US would have indeed violated the treaty, but in a nuclear war who cares? So in principle the US could station US-controlled nuclear weapons in Taiwan, and publicly announce they have done so. But it would be an extremely risky move – basically the Cuban Missile Crisis all over again, but this time with the US playing the role of the Soviet Union. Given the extreme risk of such a move, I doubt the US is going to make it.
  - cabalamat 5y ago
    > US would never do that, it would violate Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The US unlikely to be enormously bothered about violating treaties if it finds doing so in its interest. > Given the extreme risk of such a move What exactly is China going to do? Try to break the US-led world order? They're doing that already!
    - 5y ago

warning26 5y ago

It's an interesting idea, but it would amount to calling China's bluff. China has stated that they would definitely commit to a ground invasion of Taiwan if the US recognized it. The question is -- how serious are they about that? Personally, I think they'd go for it. They've been itching to take over Taiwan by force anyway.

bpodgursky 5y ago
> China has stated that they would definitely commit to a ground invasion of Taiwan if the US recognized it. I don't believe this is true. IIRC they've implied they would invade if Taiwan declared itself independent.
- nradov 5y ago
  China has more than just implied it. They directly stated that a declaration of independence by Taiwan means war. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55851052 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55851052
cabalamat 5y ago
> Personally, I think they'd go for it. If there were sizable numbers of US troops on Taiwan, I don't think they'd attack. They don't want a major confrontation, at least not yet.
- tablespoon 5y ago
  > If there were sizable numbers of US troops on Taiwan, I don't think they'd attack. They don't want a major confrontation, at least not yet. There's a decent chance at this point that all those troops would do is hold the airport for a rushed evacuation mission.
  - hker 5y ago
    US is prioritizing South China Sea and Taiwan Strait after its exit from Afghanistan. US sails ship through South China Sea days after China institutes new maritime ID rules [1] [1]: https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/08/politics/us-south-china-sea-maritime-id-rules/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/08/politics/us-south-china-sea-m...

mensetmanusman 5y ago

We are playing the long game, eventually the warmongering Chinese leaders will be gone.

cabalamat 5y ago
China doesn't want war, it wants status. They see the last 200 years as a reversal of the natural order of things, and want China to be top dog again. They literally see themselves as the center of the world: Zhongguo means "central country".
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]