5 ms·

I’ve been following concussions in sports for while as part of a company I’m launching soon (https://ocula.ai https://ocula.ai) - it’s seriously scary stuff now

by ben-gy 5y ago

I’ve been following concussions in sports for while as part of a company I’m launching soon (https://ocula.ai https://ocula.ai) - it’s seriously scary stuff now that longer term, validated studies are beginning to be published - it’s worth noting NFL powered through its allocated funds for concussion payouts of $0.5B almost a decade ahead of schedule (https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/10056496 https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/10056...) and there’s many more on the way…

toomuchtodo 5y ago
What’s the end game for American football when, inherently, everyone ends up with brain damage? I assume the NFL will end up bankrupt from civil claims?
- fallingknife 5y ago
  Why can't they just add "this causes brain damage and we are not liable" to their contract?
  - AnIdiotOnTheNet 5y ago
    The most American of answers.
    - quantumBerry 5y ago
      Person A consents voluntarily to Person B to take large sum of money in exchange for concussion/negative health effects on their own body (which I presume we agree they own their own body including the ability to risk it). What business is it to anyone else, least of all the government?
      - alistairSH 5y ago
        You're only thinking about the NFL. High school and youth players are neither paid nor are they old enough to consent. Collegiate players are old enough to consent, but aren't paid (excluding tuition/room/board). Regardless of the sums of money, do we as a society, really want to allow people to allow themselves to become brain damaged in exchange for money? If not, we need to decide where we draw the line.
        quantumBerry 5y ago
        Yes, we really should allow people who consent to risk becoming brain damaged to do it in exchange for money. We already allow people to do it for free, like allowing people to ride dirt bikes. >You're only thinking about the NFL. The article was literally about professional rugby players. Yes I realize most of those guys are not making millions. >High school and youth players are neither paid nor are they old enough to consent. Which is why I said those who consent, who are you arguing against? My statement was "Person A consents." If you believe a minor cannot consent then by definition we haven't spoken about high school and youth. As an aside, do you believe all sex amongst 17 year olds is rape as well, since you are not attributing them the ability to consent?
      - 0134340 5y ago
        It becomes the government's and everyone else's business because who's going to look after you if you get disabled and can't work? You'll then have to proceed to beg, steal or live on government benefits and then you become everyone else's problem. As long as we live in a society we are our brother's keeper whether we like it or not. The only escape is to move away from society so you have no interaction with it so then you can't complain about society interacting with you. Which in today's world is impossible as society will still at least affect your natural environment, unfortunately.
        quantumBerry 5y ago
        If you don't like the fact that the disabled may have to be looked out for on your dime or taxpayer's dime, that sounds more like an argument for government not "looking out" for someone who voluntarily risked their body. Being your brother's keeper doesn't mean getting an IRS agent and some agent with a gun to force someone who didn't consent to someone else playing football/rugby to pay for their injury. Being brother's keeper doesn't mean removing consent. I think what you should really be arguing for is the rugby association to properly compensate anyone with medical disability as a result of their employment.
      - qqqwerty 5y ago
        Contract law is literally one of the main functions of government. The court system, paid for by taxpayers, is used to settle those disputes. So it is in the governments interest to clearly define what is and isn't allowed in a contract between two parties.
        quantumBerry 5y ago
        The business of the government is in enforcing the consensual contract, not in the content of consensual conduct between two parties. It would be quite draconian to suggest the government should have an interest in what particular consensual activity you choose. Or maybe you really believe it is in the governments interest to clearly define what consensual conduct is allowed. Just curious, but do you check with government interests before agreeing to a certain sex position with a partner? After all, it is the government's business; they should really probably know. I hope you also seek government definition of your conduct of pissing in a bush next time you're out in the public woods (make sure the contract of your public use of lands isn't ill defined). The idea contract law makes what voluntary consensual conduct you do the business of government is a hilarious and gross misinterpretation of the the utility of contract law.
        qqqwerty 5y ago
        If I challenge you to a duel, and we both agree to it in writing, that doesn't make it legal even if it is consensual. Similarly, if the NFL puts a waiver in their contracts with players regarding damages related to concussions/CTE, that may (or may not) be enforceable. The US has quite a few labor laws that would likely apply here. If you live in libertarian la la land, then sure, both sides should be able to come to a consensual agreement without government interference. But in the real world, there are actual, real limits to what you can put in a contract that will stand up in court. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_contract_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_contract_law
        quantumBerry 5y ago
        I don't find anything wrong with a duel, nor that if someone knowingly chooses to not hold the NFL accountable beyond their millions in payment and post-employment benefits that they have the right to do that. >If you live in libertarian la la land, then sure, both sides should be able to come to a consensual agreement without government interference Yes and currently people still come to "illegal" consensual agreements like in the drug trade. When they're unable to seek peaceful intervention through the courts, they're forced instead to engage in violence and vigilante justice. That sounds much better to you, huh? It's not just libertarians that have an interest in government butting out of these sorts of agreements. For instance, pot shops (run by all kind of folks) have trouble entering any sort of banking relationship due to asinine federal drug laws. Or if you're into certain alternative health ideas, you'll find you're completely unable to come to an agreement with a farmer across state lines for obtaining unpasteurized raw milk. Hope you've never purchased from a child's unlicensed lemonade stand either.
  - _jal 5y ago
    Aside from being appalling, this would also serve as an admission.
  - syops 5y ago
    In a properly functioning society the government tends to look out for the best interests of its citizens. People are local optimization machines and they tend to make bad long term decisions. In order to prevent exploitation of labor it is necessary for government to intervene from time to time. It's why we don't let mining companies say to the prospective employees: "This is dangerous and we aren't liable." Instead we require mining companies to take prudent steps to ensure the safety of workers. People desperate for a paycheck often times will do things they ordinarily wouldn't.
    - thinkharderdev 5y ago
      In general that is true, but I don't think NFL players fall into the category of "desperate for a paycheck." That said, the vast majority of football players never make a dime and if the NFL DOES go bankrupt it will because the pipeline of players dries up because many fewer people want to play at the HS/College level given the obvious health risks and very low adds of becoming a successful professional.
      - 1270018080 5y ago
        NFL players are absolutely desperate for a paycheck. For many, it's their way out of poverty. They have to go through 8+ years of brain damage for their only chance of not ending up poor like everyone else in their family. And the avg tenure in the NFL is only 3 years.
  - mustacheemperor 5y ago
    Professional football relies on the infrastructure of child/school football producing new players, so there’s going to be a trickle down effect from whatever happens with the NFL. Even if over 18 year olds signing contracts can waive their liability, high schoolers can’t. And mounting scientific evidence about the risk of concussions is going to cause it’s own liability issues for the schools hosting the sports. Anecdotally, I remember a couple of my high school classmates seemed perceptibly affected by their repeated concussions in varsity football, and would discuss at the lunch table how to throw the “impact” test at the start of the year so they would still be allowed to play after a serious hit. The test compared your score after injury to your score at the start of the year, so theoretically if you do badly enough on round 1 you can still pass with a “mild” concussion.
    - quantumBerry 5y ago
      Professional software development relies on the infrastructure of childhood STEM producing new scientists, so there’s going to be a trickle down effect from whatever happens with the startup sector. Even if over 18 year olds signing contracts can waive their liability, high schoolers can’t. And mounting scientific evidence about the risk of pressure to succeed in the sciences is going to cause it’s own liability issues for the schools hosting the subjects, such as the many suicides of engineering students who are overwhelmed with pressure to succeed. Anecdotally, more than 1 engineering student has killed themself, affected by their repeated challenges in engineering school, and has discussed their challenges at the lunch table about how to throw back a "drink" at the start of the night so they could still allow themselves to continue after a serious reprimand by their PI. -------------- NFL primarily sources from collegiate football, not high school. In fact, there is a strict rule a player must be 3 year out of high school before being drafted. If you have a problem with the way collegiate football recruits children, perhaps it is best to start there.
- kasey_junk 5y ago
  Early on in American footballs life there was a problem with excessive deaths. The President stepped in and effectively demanded rule changes to make the sport less deadly. I doubt that will happen again but you can imagine a similar set of rule changes to help with brain health. I suspect the NFL will need to drive that as I don’t see a Teddy Roosevelt line public figure these days.
  - ProjectArcturis 5y ago
    What rule changes can you make to football to eliminate head hits, without making the game unrecognizable? I think if that were a possible solution, they would have done it already. As is they're just tinkering on the margins with things like kickoff rules (encouraging more touchbacks to eliminate contact on one of the most dangerous plays of the game).
    - LgWoodenBadger 5y ago
      Targeting (leading with the crown of the helmet) is a penalty that can get a college player ejected from the game, and if in the second half will carry over to the first half of the next game. A blow to the QBs head is a 15 yard penalty and automatic 1st down. Spearing is a personal foul, 15 yard penalty, automatic 1st down IIRC. I'm sure there are others...
      - Goronmon 5y ago
        I think that would fall under "tinkering on the margins" as the person you replied to phrased it. An example of a more systemic change would be elimination of any head-to-head impacts that might occur between defense and offensive linemen on any given play. How do you work to eliminate those without changing the game into something unrecognizable?
        deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
    - toast0 5y ago
- adventured 5y ago
  > What’s the end game for American football when, inherently, everyone ends up with brain damage? Everyone doesn't end up with brain damage. Most NFL players only play for a few seasons. The average career is only three seasons; the median is even lower. An exceptionally small number of players are going to suffer brain damage in two or three seasons. Today's NFL players are paid far beyond extraordinarily well, they don't need the money. The bulk of the claims are coming from players in the past that were not paid so well and do need the money. Guys that used to play for $100,000 /yr across a ten year career, and played at a time when the NFL was far more violent and head protection was even worse. A player that lasts 10-15 years in the NFL today will typically earn $100 million or more. They'll have a lot of money and some will have lasting brain damage. A very small fraction of those players will ever consider suing the NFL. > I assume the NFL will end up bankrupt from civil claims? That's an incorrect assumption. The legal cost will barely be a drop in the bucket of the NFL's financial machinery. Someone else mentioned the $500m concussion fund was burned through sooner than expected. $50m-$100m per year is an easy problem for the NFL these days. The commissioner gets paid $40 million per year. League revenue was $16 billion in 2019. One team, the Dallas Cowboys, alone has $280 million in operating income. If you cycle out ten more years, the NFL could afford $500 million every single year in liability costs related to head injuries, and it would still be fine (and that number isn't going to happen).
  - watwut 5y ago
    Most players don't ever get to high league. They play in schools, colleges and clubs. They don't earn money and they do suffer injuries all the time.
  - alistairSH 5y ago
    Most NFL players only play for a few seasons. A large portion of collegiate players will end up with CTE. Enough high school players end up with CTE that we should be concerned. https://www.bu.edu/sph/news/articles/2017/evidence-of-cte-found-in-brains-of-deceased-football-players/ https://www.bu.edu/sph/news/articles/2017/evidence-of-cte-fo...
    - microtherion 5y ago
- astura 5y ago
  Probably not, the death rate for former WWE wrestlers is absolutely astounding and they haven't been sued out of existence. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-pro-wrestlers-dying-at-an-unusual-rate/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-pro-wrestlers-dying... https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/comparing-the-wwfs-death-rate-to-the-nfls-and-other-pro-leagues/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/comparing-the-wwfs-deat... https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-33817959 https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-33817959
ProjectArcturis 5y ago
You're probably aware of this, but this study and many others indicate that repeated sub-concussive hits can be just as dangerous to the brain. Indeed, some would argue that the NFL's focus on concussions is a way of looking like they're doing something while ignoring the fact that there is no way to play NFL football without causing brain damage.
- ben-gy 5y ago
  Yep - 100% correct - brain scans can identify early signs of CTE processing after a single season for a soccer player in a defensive or offensive position that heads the ball regularly.

by ben-gy 5y ago

toomuchtodo 5y ago

What’s the end game for American football when, inherently, everyone ends up with brain damage? I assume the NFL will end up bankrupt from civil claims?

fallingknife 5y ago
Why can't they just add "this causes brain damage and we are not liable" to their contract?
- AnIdiotOnTheNet 5y ago
  The most American of answers.
  - quantumBerry 5y ago
    Person A consents voluntarily to Person B to take large sum of money in exchange for concussion/negative health effects on their own body (which I presume we agree they own their own body including the ability to risk it). What business is it to anyone else, least of all the government?
    - alistairSH 5y ago
      You're only thinking about the NFL. High school and youth players are neither paid nor are they old enough to consent. Collegiate players are old enough to consent, but aren't paid (excluding tuition/room/board). Regardless of the sums of money, do we as a society, really want to allow people to allow themselves to become brain damaged in exchange for money? If not, we need to decide where we draw the line.
      - quantumBerry 5y ago
        Yes, we really should allow people who consent to risk becoming brain damaged to do it in exchange for money. We already allow people to do it for free, like allowing people to ride dirt bikes. >You're only thinking about the NFL. The article was literally about professional rugby players. Yes I realize most of those guys are not making millions. >High school and youth players are neither paid nor are they old enough to consent. Which is why I said those who consent, who are you arguing against? My statement was "Person A consents." If you believe a minor cannot consent then by definition we haven't spoken about high school and youth. As an aside, do you believe all sex amongst 17 year olds is rape as well, since you are not attributing them the ability to consent?
    - 0134340 5y ago
      It becomes the government's and everyone else's business because who's going to look after you if you get disabled and can't work? You'll then have to proceed to beg, steal or live on government benefits and then you become everyone else's problem. As long as we live in a society we are our brother's keeper whether we like it or not. The only escape is to move away from society so you have no interaction with it so then you can't complain about society interacting with you. Which in today's world is impossible as society will still at least affect your natural environment, unfortunately.
      - quantumBerry 5y ago
        If you don't like the fact that the disabled may have to be looked out for on your dime or taxpayer's dime, that sounds more like an argument for government not "looking out" for someone who voluntarily risked their body. Being your brother's keeper doesn't mean getting an IRS agent and some agent with a gun to force someone who didn't consent to someone else playing football/rugby to pay for their injury. Being brother's keeper doesn't mean removing consent. I think what you should really be arguing for is the rugby association to properly compensate anyone with medical disability as a result of their employment.
    - qqqwerty 5y ago
      Contract law is literally one of the main functions of government. The court system, paid for by taxpayers, is used to settle those disputes. So it is in the governments interest to clearly define what is and isn't allowed in a contract between two parties.
      - quantumBerry 5y ago
        The business of the government is in enforcing the consensual contract, not in the content of consensual conduct between two parties. It would be quite draconian to suggest the government should have an interest in what particular consensual activity you choose. Or maybe you really believe it is in the governments interest to clearly define what consensual conduct is allowed. Just curious, but do you check with government interests before agreeing to a certain sex position with a partner? After all, it is the government's business; they should really probably know. I hope you also seek government definition of your conduct of pissing in a bush next time you're out in the public woods (make sure the contract of your public use of lands isn't ill defined). The idea contract law makes what voluntary consensual conduct you do the business of government is a hilarious and gross misinterpretation of the the utility of contract law.
        qqqwerty 5y ago
        If I challenge you to a duel, and we both agree to it in writing, that doesn't make it legal even if it is consensual. Similarly, if the NFL puts a waiver in their contracts with players regarding damages related to concussions/CTE, that may (or may not) be enforceable. The US has quite a few labor laws that would likely apply here. If you live in libertarian la la land, then sure, both sides should be able to come to a consensual agreement without government interference. But in the real world, there are actual, real limits to what you can put in a contract that will stand up in court. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_contract_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_contract_law
        quantumBerry 5y ago
        I don't find anything wrong with a duel, nor that if someone knowingly chooses to not hold the NFL accountable beyond their millions in payment and post-employment benefits that they have the right to do that. >If you live in libertarian la la land, then sure, both sides should be able to come to a consensual agreement without government interference Yes and currently people still come to "illegal" consensual agreements like in the drug trade. When they're unable to seek peaceful intervention through the courts, they're forced instead to engage in violence and vigilante justice. That sounds much better to you, huh? It's not just libertarians that have an interest in government butting out of these sorts of agreements. For instance, pot shops (run by all kind of folks) have trouble entering any sort of banking relationship due to asinine federal drug laws. Or if you're into certain alternative health ideas, you'll find you're completely unable to come to an agreement with a farmer across state lines for obtaining unpasteurized raw milk. Hope you've never purchased from a child's unlicensed lemonade stand either.
- _jal 5y ago
  Aside from being appalling, this would also serve as an admission.
- syops 5y ago
  In a properly functioning society the government tends to look out for the best interests of its citizens. People are local optimization machines and they tend to make bad long term decisions. In order to prevent exploitation of labor it is necessary for government to intervene from time to time. It's why we don't let mining companies say to the prospective employees: "This is dangerous and we aren't liable." Instead we require mining companies to take prudent steps to ensure the safety of workers. People desperate for a paycheck often times will do things they ordinarily wouldn't.
  - thinkharderdev 5y ago
    In general that is true, but I don't think NFL players fall into the category of "desperate for a paycheck." That said, the vast majority of football players never make a dime and if the NFL DOES go bankrupt it will because the pipeline of players dries up because many fewer people want to play at the HS/College level given the obvious health risks and very low adds of becoming a successful professional.
    - 1270018080 5y ago
      NFL players are absolutely desperate for a paycheck. For many, it's their way out of poverty. They have to go through 8+ years of brain damage for their only chance of not ending up poor like everyone else in their family. And the avg tenure in the NFL is only 3 years.
- mustacheemperor 5y ago
  Professional football relies on the infrastructure of child/school football producing new players, so there’s going to be a trickle down effect from whatever happens with the NFL. Even if over 18 year olds signing contracts can waive their liability, high schoolers can’t. And mounting scientific evidence about the risk of concussions is going to cause it’s own liability issues for the schools hosting the sports. Anecdotally, I remember a couple of my high school classmates seemed perceptibly affected by their repeated concussions in varsity football, and would discuss at the lunch table how to throw the “impact” test at the start of the year so they would still be allowed to play after a serious hit. The test compared your score after injury to your score at the start of the year, so theoretically if you do badly enough on round 1 you can still pass with a “mild” concussion.
  - quantumBerry 5y ago
    Professional software development relies on the infrastructure of childhood STEM producing new scientists, so there’s going to be a trickle down effect from whatever happens with the startup sector. Even if over 18 year olds signing contracts can waive their liability, high schoolers can’t. And mounting scientific evidence about the risk of pressure to succeed in the sciences is going to cause it’s own liability issues for the schools hosting the subjects, such as the many suicides of engineering students who are overwhelmed with pressure to succeed. Anecdotally, more than 1 engineering student has killed themself, affected by their repeated challenges in engineering school, and has discussed their challenges at the lunch table about how to throw back a "drink" at the start of the night so they could still allow themselves to continue after a serious reprimand by their PI. -------------- NFL primarily sources from collegiate football, not high school. In fact, there is a strict rule a player must be 3 year out of high school before being drafted. If you have a problem with the way collegiate football recruits children, perhaps it is best to start there.
kasey_junk 5y ago
Early on in American footballs life there was a problem with excessive deaths. The President stepped in and effectively demanded rule changes to make the sport less deadly. I doubt that will happen again but you can imagine a similar set of rule changes to help with brain health. I suspect the NFL will need to drive that as I don’t see a Teddy Roosevelt line public figure these days.
- ProjectArcturis 5y ago
  What rule changes can you make to football to eliminate head hits, without making the game unrecognizable? I think if that were a possible solution, they would have done it already. As is they're just tinkering on the margins with things like kickoff rules (encouraging more touchbacks to eliminate contact on one of the most dangerous plays of the game).
  - LgWoodenBadger 5y ago
    Targeting (leading with the crown of the helmet) is a penalty that can get a college player ejected from the game, and if in the second half will carry over to the first half of the next game. A blow to the QBs head is a 15 yard penalty and automatic 1st down. Spearing is a personal foul, 15 yard penalty, automatic 1st down IIRC. I'm sure there are others...
    - Goronmon 5y ago
      I think that would fall under "tinkering on the margins" as the person you replied to phrased it. An example of a more systemic change would be elimination of any head-to-head impacts that might occur between defense and offensive linemen on any given play. How do you work to eliminate those without changing the game into something unrecognizable?
      - deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
  - toast0 5y ago
adventured 5y ago
> What’s the end game for American football when, inherently, everyone ends up with brain damage? Everyone doesn't end up with brain damage. Most NFL players only play for a few seasons. The average career is only three seasons; the median is even lower. An exceptionally small number of players are going to suffer brain damage in two or three seasons. Today's NFL players are paid far beyond extraordinarily well, they don't need the money. The bulk of the claims are coming from players in the past that were not paid so well and do need the money. Guys that used to play for $100,000 /yr across a ten year career, and played at a time when the NFL was far more violent and head protection was even worse. A player that lasts 10-15 years in the NFL today will typically earn $100 million or more. They'll have a lot of money and some will have lasting brain damage. A very small fraction of those players will ever consider suing the NFL. > I assume the NFL will end up bankrupt from civil claims? That's an incorrect assumption. The legal cost will barely be a drop in the bucket of the NFL's financial machinery. Someone else mentioned the $500m concussion fund was burned through sooner than expected. $50m-$100m per year is an easy problem for the NFL these days. The commissioner gets paid $40 million per year. League revenue was $16 billion in 2019. One team, the Dallas Cowboys, alone has $280 million in operating income. If you cycle out ten more years, the NFL could afford $500 million every single year in liability costs related to head injuries, and it would still be fine (and that number isn't going to happen).
- watwut 5y ago
  Most players don't ever get to high league. They play in schools, colleges and clubs. They don't earn money and they do suffer injuries all the time.
- alistairSH 5y ago
  Most NFL players only play for a few seasons. A large portion of collegiate players will end up with CTE. Enough high school players end up with CTE that we should be concerned. https://www.bu.edu/sph/news/articles/2017/evidence-of-cte-found-in-brains-of-deceased-football-players/ https://www.bu.edu/sph/news/articles/2017/evidence-of-cte-fo...
  - microtherion 5y ago
astura 5y ago
Probably not, the death rate for former WWE wrestlers is absolutely astounding and they haven't been sued out of existence. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-pro-wrestlers-dying-at-an-unusual-rate/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-pro-wrestlers-dying... https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/comparing-the-wwfs-death-rate-to-the-nfls-and-other-pro-leagues/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/comparing-the-wwfs-deat... https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-33817959 https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-33817959

ProjectArcturis 5y ago

You're probably aware of this, but this study and many others indicate that repeated sub-concussive hits can be just as dangerous to the brain. Indeed, some would argue that the NFL's focus on concussions is a way of looking like they're doing something while ignoring the fact that there is no way to play NFL football without causing brain damage.

ben-gy 5y ago
Yep - 100% correct - brain scans can identify early signs of CTE processing after a single season for a soccer player in a defensive or offensive position that heads the ball regularly.