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Tesla AI Day [video]
- Geee 5y agoIt was supposed to start at 5pm Pacific.
- milvakili 5y agoSeems like delivering cars is not the only thing they delay...
- rcMgD2BwE72F 5y agoReally? In 2013, Tesla projected 500,000 car deliveries per year by 2020. They missed by what, a few dozens?
- perihelions 5y agoA sufficiently advanced technologist is never late, nor is he early.
- smoldesu 5y agoA sufficiently advanced technologist is also indistinguishable from a magician.
- judge2020 5y agoElon is finally on stage @ 5:48 PM pacific.
- Robotbeat 5y agoPar for the course. Ever the optimist… “ As a kid Elon Musk had so much trouble being on time, his younger brother developed a trick to make sure Musk didn’t miss the bus to school. Kimbal Musk — who currently sits on Tesla’s board — would lie to his older brother about the time, telling the future billionaire that the bus would be arriving, several minutes ahead of schedule. The slight manipulation ensured Musk wouldn’t be left behind.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2018/06/06/elon-musk-has-been-missing-deadlines-since-he-was-a-kid/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2018/06/0...
- noduerme 5y agoHe must have been the one who laid out the schedule for the CyberTruck.
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- mrfusion 5y agoIs there a way to start watching at the beginning if I missed the start?
- ianai 5y agoOpen it in YouTube and scroll back.
- mikeyouse 5y agoLink here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0z4FweCy4M https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0z4FweCy4M
- ehsankia 5y agoMaybe it changed but the live stream link is an embeded youtube player, which you can rewind on normally. You can also increase playback speed and watch at 1.5x while it's still live if you're catching up to the current time.
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- xibalba 5y agoThus far, this is all information Andrej has presented elsewhere. Edit: Wow, Ashok's section was amazing. It does seems as though their ability to simulate (on top of their fleet's data collection advantage) could allow them to rapidly accelerate toward true FSD. I really like that they capture real world failures and simulate many realizations of them.
- itsoktocry 5y ago>could allow them to rapidly accelerate toward true FSD Every year a little BS is added, and the faithful believe this. There is zero evidence they collect the data they claim to.
- panick21 5y agoYou think they are fake collecting data? I suppose they wrote code to create fake uploads from peoples cars. How deep is this conspiracy going. How does the FSD Beta work? Do they buy data from somewhere else? Or are all the people who have the FSD Beta paid by Tesla to create fake content. True conspiracy theory you have unraveled here.
- itsoktocry 5y ago>You think they are fake collecting data? I suppose they wrote code to create fake uploads from peoples cars. How deep is this conspiracy going. The conspiracy "keeps going" by the simple math of what they claim to collect vs what actually comes off of the cars and is stored. Do you have any idea the bandwidth and storage associated with endless hours of video storage? Where is it all accounted for? Do you think people are uploading hours and hours of video, from multiple cameras, through cell towers and it's completely unmeasurable? It's astonishing to me that people actually believe that's happening. They've been faking and exaggerating things for years. But yeah, sure, this is a real stretch. >How does the FSD Beta work? Do they buy data from somewhere else? They have some driving data and simulate the rest (something they used to say was a no-no). Did you even watch the presentation? The point is, they have no real "data" advantage over competitors. They literally had LiDAR rigs driving around cities collecting data...why, when they have a million cars submitting billions of miles worth of video? Let me guess, you're one of these layman who thinks the "neural net" is being trained every time the car disengages?
- Invictus0 5y agoI like Andrej and I think he's a brilliant guy. At the end of the day though, there is no way for me or anyone to audit the neural networks or their training data. How can anyone trust them? I think this is really a fundamental problem with using neural networks in self-driving cars--I don't want to put my life in the hands of a fragile system that I, and no one alive, can understand. We are being asked to close our eyes, take a leap of faith, and give complete trust to this system, and just hope it's been trained on every edge case under the sun and nothing out of the ordinary will ever happen while we're in the car.
- alain94040 5y agoWould QA solve that problem? As in, "we replayed 1.4 trillion accident scenarios and our AI behaved correctly on all of them". Safety in numbers.
- gccs 5y ago"We trained a model, overfit on 1.4 trillion accident scenarios, and if behaved correctly on all of them."
- bpodgursky 5y agoUnless your model actually has trillions of parameters (and it doesn't, even gpt-3 only has 175 billion) it is not even possible to overfit on 1.4 trillion training inputs. You can't actually pigeonhole it.
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- karpierz 5y agoSuppose that you train a neural network to predict the next number in an arithmetic sequence (a, a+b, a+2b, a+3b, a+4b, ...). As input it gets two numbers, the last number and the current number and has to predict the next one. Suppose you had 1.4 trillion examples in the following test set (using a model with 175 billion parameters): (1,2)->3 (2,3)->4 (3,4)->5 ... Do you think it is possible to overfit and score perfect on the test set, while failing to generalize?
- 2bitencryption 5y agoA big part of the presentation so far was an engineer describing the huge difficulty of stitching together the multiple cameras into one vector space that can be the input to the network, instead of treating each camera individually. Seems like the biggest problem was each pixel from a camera does not tell you how far away it is, so even if you know the camera is X feet off the grounding pointing at Y degrees, you don't know if there's a wall in front of the camera or not. So you can easily reconstruct a 2D space from all the cameras just by knowing their positions, but you can't simply translate that back to 3D. I could barely follow the solution to this problem, but it seems to approximate the distance somewhat okay... but it required yet another universe of features in the neural net pipeline just to achieve it. The funniest part is... isn't this exactly what LIDAR is amazing at?? Or what about having each "camera" actually be two cameras that can achieve depth via parallax?
- ModernMech 5y agoYes. This is exactly what LIDAR is for. This is the reason every single team in the 2007 DARPA Urban challenge that finished the race was equipped with a Velodyne laser. We knew it was a critical enabling technology 14 years ago, and it baffles me Tesla is eschewing it. Tesla's lack of this technology is the main reason I feel they will never achieve what they claim to without a huge breakthrough in AI.
- tru3_power 5y agoWhat was their reasoning for not using Lidar?
- TheJoeMan 5y agoI might be completely wrong here, but hasn’t their collision incidents often been with weird things in the road such as sideways 18 wheelers and yellow lines heading into barricades? They’ve put lots of effort into tracking some pedestrian waaaaay over on the side passing behind trees, and that is really really impressive. But it seems to me the only reason it doesn’t hit a car in front on the road is because the neural net has tagged it as a “car”. I would like to see some system that also doesn’t collide into any sort of random object directly in front. Along these lines, I read about the ditching of the radar, and I understand the technical limitations with the phantom stops under overpasses. But could someone help me understand why Teslas don’t just have the run of the mill Camry collision braking as a secondary measure independently?
- MontyCarloHall 5y ago> I would like to see some system that also doesn’t collide into any sort of random object directly in front. The flip side of this is false positives: you don’t want a car slamming on the brakes because of a plastic shopping bag or other soft piece of trash lying in the road. This is a hard problem, regardless of technology employed. On the other hand, you need the car to distinguish a mattress lying in the road from road markings. This is an easy problem if you have depth sensors, which brings me to my next point: > But could someone help me understand why Teslas don’t just have the run of the mill Camry collision braking as a secondary measure independently? Because for whatever reason (hubris?) Tesla insists on eschewing LIDAR/RADAR for 100% camera based systems. Not being able to explicitly sense depth is really kneecapping their system’s abilities.
- WrtCdEvrydy 5y ago> Because for whatever reason (hubris?) Tesla insists on eschewing LIDAR/RADAR for 100% camera based systems. It's a retrofit problem. The moment you admit that you need LIDAR/RADAR, every Tesla on the road loses value unless you're willing to retrofit them all. Comma.ai has sidetracked this issue by basically using the built-in sensors on the vehicles, and there's rumors of a camera-only version for those without radar coming in the future. This would allow any car that has fly by wire with steering control to use it for "level 2 autonomy"
- clubdorothe 5y agowhich manufacturer tesla using for their dojo chips?
- Empact 5y agoPresumably TSMC https://electrek.co/2020/08/18/tesla-hw-4-0-self-driving-chip-tsmc-for-mass-production-q4-2021-report/ https://electrek.co/2020/08/18/tesla-hw-4-0-self-driving-chi...
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- koalafied 5y agoI find it amusing (and maybe even ironic?) that tools and methods (GPUs and game engines, etc.) whose development was mainly driven by gaming and entertainment (rather frivolous use cases) now find applications in a much more "serious" domain with a potential to revolutionize our lives.
- tim333 5y agoA lot of games in general allow the development of skills for use in more serious areas of life.
- jmportilla 5y agoNo one here talking about the freaking humanoid bot?!? Also interesting to see how focused they are still on pure vision input to construct the vector space instead of just using LIDAR, but I wonder how limited they are by existing models already being out there with set hardware.
- pyinstallwoes 5y agoI was just about to post the same thing... like, I had to refresh multiple times and double check the comments if I were going crazy.
- TigeriusKirk 5y agoI wonder if the focus on pure vision over lidar isn't related to the humanoid bot...
- pyinstallwoes 5y agoOf course it is. Elon has said that before. They use the human physics as a baseline of technology to mimic. If humans don't need lidar and can operate with vision, then they can do was the logic.
- ctdonath 5y agoIf you’re going to build a viable AI, and have a billion dollars to spare, and are a high functioning autistic fascinated with making classic sci-fi real, why not create a humorous robot? Boston Dynamics has shown it’s viable. Cross their work with FSD neutral nets and see what happens.
- Invictus0 5y agoWhat's to comment on? It's a piece of plastic with nothing inside it. You really think they'll have a humanoid robot by next year? Just look at Elon's face, he literally made up the timeline on the spot.
- itsoktocry 5y ago"Human-level hands" Do sensible people really take this seriously?
- pyinstallwoes 5y agoHow can sensible people not? Really the problem would be that anyone that has not increased their threshold of the absurd are blind to the future that is here.
- itsoktocry 5y agoCan you point me to the robotaxis they announced were imminent at a similar event two years ago?
- bane 5y agoBottom line, robots coming soon. He's slowly building out the roadmap for the labor pool, transportation, communications system and so on for the colonization of Mars.
- dragontamer 5y agoThey were supposed to do coast to coast self driving years ago according to these hype videos https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-coast-to-coast-autonomous-drive/ https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-coast-to-coast-auto... Hard to take them seriously given how much hype they generate each year.
- fastball 5y agoAccurate hardware/software development timelines are an unsolved problem. To me, the question is: is the technology getting better over time? And from what I've seen I would answer that question with a resounding yes.
- dragontamer 5y ago> Accurate hardware/software development timelines are an unsolved problem Then why is it sold as a $10,000 full self driving package?
- fastball 5y agoTesla is selling a $10k hardware package, with the promise that eventually they'll have the software to match. Musk makes lots of optimistic predictions which are not hard deadlines. There is no actual guaranteed timeline in the terms that come along with the FSD package, AFAIK. It is made explicit that the software required to utilize the hardware you are purchasing is not ready yet.
- dragontamer 5y agoAnd what are the chances that the $5k hardware packages they sold in 2016 are up to the challenge, when these $10k hardware packages they have are a few orders of magnitude faster? Same thing come 2026: Tesla will almost surely have new hardware for that time, and I'm willing to bet that FSD still will be a vaporware product and incomplete. If it happened over the past 5 years, history tends to repeat and I can make the same bet will happen in 5 years into the future.
- harikb 5y agoC++ is mentioned many times in the live presentation today. I guess they felt it is important to mention that.
- bitsoda 5y agoThe whole presentation is basically a recruiting event.
- blahblahblogger 5y agoHonest Q for anyone here, how is Tesla's software-eng culture? I've of course heard of people on the ground floor of Tesla (factory workers) not being treated well, I've heard of SpaceX employees having high churn as they get "burnt through", and of Elon being kind of an ass. But having said that I have a Tesla and am one of those types that like to work on things that bring me value or that I can have some sort of tangible connection to.
- ScionOfDesign 5y agoI did some contract work for Tesla last year over the course of ~8 months. If I were to pick a few key words it would be: High pressure, somewhat disorganized, and results-driven. It was high pressure in that there were hard deadlines, and these deadlines needed to be met. If they weren't met, you needed to have a damn good explanation for as to why they weren't met. Somewhat disorganized in that they did have a complete dev-ops lifecycle, but it felt kind of patched together. The team I was on did not do any formal standups or sprint planning. There was a very robust QA, validation, and homologation process though. They expected developers to do most of the QA, though. The point of the actual QA team was to ensure that there were 'no surprises'. I happened to be paired with a dedicated QA rep, though, which was nice. Results-driven in that you were expected to do what you needed to do to get your job done. "Nobody told me what to do" was not an excuse. If you needed something done by someone else, you were expected to take initiative and ask and bug people until it got done. Most employees knew this, however, and were happy to help. Engineers somewhat idolized Elon but also legitimately did not want to be the one to tell him bad news (such as they would prefer a different company rep do it). There are a lot of really smart people at Tesla, and you really do get to work on things that have never been done before (I got plenty of news articles written about what I worked on), but you really need to be dedicated to the company. When I was there, there was a lot of crunch towards the end of my contract, and they said it wasn't usual, but I'd say expect crunch at least once or twice a year.
- ipsum2 5y agoI don't know if anyone else caught this, but their "optimal trajectory" planned path is illegally changing lanes in an intersection, at -1:26:00: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0z4FweCy4M https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0z4FweCy4M. Pretty funny.
- Cogito 5y agoI remember reading something about the legality of changing lanes in an intersection in different jurisdictions, and a quick google gives me this [0]. The consensus seems to be that it's legal in many places, however a dangerous lane change is always illegal and changing lanes in an intersection is almost always dangerous. [0] https://www.reddit.com/r/NoStupidQuestions/comments/25kbg3/in_california_is_it_legal_to_change_lanes_in_an/ https://www.reddit.com/r/NoStupidQuestions/comments/25kbg3/i...
- vanshg 5y agoAt least in California, it is not illegal to change lanes in an intersection, given that the maneuver does not pose any other risk
- mgarfias 5y agoTL;DW?