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2020 U.S. Migration Map

73 points by maxwell 5y ago

coding123 5y ago
Key takeaway for me: more people want to become republicans. It's not just high population to low population, because Florida as an example.
- core-utility 5y ago
  Or at a very minimum, they like the policies red states bring in comparison (low property tax, occasional lack of income tax, lower cost of living). That is, until those moving in vote those policies out.
- bluedino 5y ago
  The economy in Florida (and Texas) is great. Lots of money there right now. I had a friend move from Ohio to Florida, he has 4 times the customers down there and they all spend more.
  - op00to 5y ago
    I wonder where all that money is coming from. Oh yeah, resource extraction.
    - mateo411 5y ago
      What are the resource extraction industries of Florida?
      - tk75x 5y ago
        Disney, Universal, cruise lines...? If the resource is tourist cash.
        mateo411 5y ago
        Tourism is usually considered part of the service industry and not resource extraction. Resource extraction is more like mining, timber, and extracting other raw materials from the earth.
      - op00to 5y ago
        Oil drilling, mining, the usual.
    - nostromo 5y ago
      The current boom in the US is from money printing, and it's nation-wide.
      - beerandt 5y ago
        But people in places with fewer covid restrictions have a much better ability to spend it, and have been. Eg, beach condos are getting 3-4x normal prices this summer and are still sold out.
    - tastyfreeze 5y ago
      Less taxes means more pocket money.
  - the_only_law 5y ago
    Texas I get, but I still don’t get the appeal of Florida. The job market feels terrible for a population this size. I’d sooner go back to GA or NC. It’s also hot as shit, and this is from someone who’s lived their entire life in the south.
    - rs999gti 5y ago
      > appeal of Florida No state income tax, warm weather, as much pro sports as CA or TX, and beaches on three sides
- nostromo 5y ago
  The old joke though is that people will leave a poorly-run state, but bring their norms and voting patterns with them.
  - tamaharbor 5y ago
    Unfortunately that is probably not a joke.
- axaxs 5y ago
  Not sure they want to become Republican, as much as they just want to live in a Republican area because, generally, taxes and crime are lower. However, I don't think most ever make the connection in their head as to why that is. but yeah, you can just draw down arrows from NY and PA to FL. They're so pervasive there's a joke about their license plates... blue and yella will kill a fella. A play on the snake idiom, because of their awful driving.
  - iluvcommunism 5y ago
    I’ve noticed that. Living in Virginia I see the folks going north and south on the 95, and almost always without exception the PA drivers are tailgating, passing, going 20 above the speed limit.
    - axaxs 5y ago
      Definitely. If I had to generalize license plate behavior based on my experience here - NJ - Drive like they're in NYC, no turn signals, will try to merge/squeeze into 3 inches of space. NY - Must not have lane rules, they just sit in the left lane regardless of speed. PA - Highly aggressive and dangerous. Will tailgate you, will brake check you, will drive 30 over and punish you if you happen to block their path. FL - Wildcard. Everyone is from one of the above, so who knows which you'll be dealing with.
    - coding123 5y ago
      In NorCal on the 5 you might also see a fully tinted purple low riding car every few weeks (I'm talking about a specific vehicle I see because I drive it all the time) with Washington plates that drives like a bat out of hell. Not that native CA drivers are much better, but they are.
- ramoz 5y ago
  Skeptical. Possibly more like *more people want to live in republican-built societies and economies... without any intent on changing their emotional/mental model of their politics.
  - toomuchtodo 5y ago
    Sort of. Housing in the Sunbelt is cheaper because there is more land/supply, and if there are jobs there, your dollar goes further. Of course people will bring their own politics with to a more favorable economic environment, some of which is not because of politics but because of localized economic conditions. If Texas and Florida housing is cheap, it's not necessarily because of Republicans. Texas has, comparatively, some pretty high property taxes for example. Sure, wages have been held down by business friendly conservative politics, but with remote work becoming more common, your wage isn't tied to the politics of where you live. (my note: Texas, Florida, and North Carolina will eventually tilt more progressive from young folks born or who move there, and as older conservatives "age out" at a rate of about 1.8 million people/year [1]) [1] https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/09/american-migration-patterns-should-terrify-gop/598153/ https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/09/american-m...
    - imtringued 5y ago
      Taxing property is much fairer than taxing income. If you want to pay less tax move to a cheaper community rather than a community that charges less taxes. It also stops speculation because the property becomes an obligation that has to be taken care of.
  - dfxm12 5y ago
    Taking Florida as an example, older people move there to escape the cold and death tax. I guess keeping wealth in your family and not having to work for it is a keystone of a Republican-built society & economy.
- istorical 5y ago
  that's a strange takeaway to make without evidence. alternate hypotheses: remote work enabled more people to earn a high salary typically found in a large city or coastal area while moving to lower cost of living areas. also, people who lost their work in industries heavily impacted by quarantine (hospitality, food, restaurant, retail) moved back home or in with family to save money.
  - core-utility 5y ago
    I admittedly haven't seen numbers on how many jobs have moved permanently remote, but anecdotally I don't see "former in-office, now permanently remote" jobs as any large percentage of these moves. I believe a large number are retirees or those who found new employment in a new state.
- whalesalad 5y ago
  More like: most people want to live and let live. The majority does not want to be in either party, they do not want a divide.
  - beerandt 5y ago
    Most people think they are "live and let live", but very few really are.
- notJim 5y ago
  They’re just moving to places that aren’t expensive yet.
  - axaxs 5y ago
    Not on the whole. FL is much more expensive than PA.
  - beerandt 5y ago
    I keep seeing this. Do that many dems really believe that their policies don't significantly result in an increased cost of living? I thought this was a compromise dems knowingly and willingly made, but it seems lots of people don't want to admit low cost of living has anything to do with being a red state.
- ryandvm 5y ago
  I dunno. Most of these people probably aren't moving to the deeply red, shithole regions of these states. They're moving to the suburbs of purple areas like Charlotte or Charleston. I've long thought that living in a blue city in a red state provides a pretty good balance.
  - dfxm12 5y ago
    A good balance of what?
    - hackeraccount 5y ago
      Low taxes and a semblance of culture. :-)
      - rs999gti 5y ago
        Keep Austin weird man
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- paxys 5y ago
  People want to move to cheaper states (mostly to be able to buy property). I doubt political affiliations have anything to do with it. In fact if we dig one level deeper I'm willing to bet most of these moves are happening to liberal enclaves in republican states (e.g. Austin, Texas).
  - xfitm3 5y ago
    I absolutely left California due to politics, and I will never return because of it. The bay area is full of batshit crazy whackos.
  - tdfx 5y ago
    I know people who moved from Austin to southern California and moved back within a year due to their surprise at the how far left California society is in general. Austin is fairly left-leaning but "extreme left" in Austin is still fairly "middle of the road" in California.
  - beerandt 5y ago
    >People want to move to cheaper states (mostly to be able to buy property). I doubt political affiliations have anything to do with it. This is such a crazy disconnect, though. They might not want to move to a "red state", but they "just happen" to like the ultimate result of red state policy. >In fact if we dig one level deeper I'm willing to bet most of these moves are happening to liberal enclaves in republican states. Sure, because they put more stock in maintaining their political self-identity and label than they do in accepting the fact that they might actually prefer living in a place that's the result of red state politics. Even if that's liberal enclave. It's a form of self-denial.
- majormajor 5y ago
  When it comes to CA, The only reason people "want" to move from more expensive to cheaper places is price alone, not any other characteristics - supply and demand doesn't work like that. More expensive = more demand. People can't afford to live in expensive places the way they'd like to. What's cute most years in CA (I haven't seen Covid-data, which probably changes things) is that net migration among people making >100K is positive. So wealthy people are pushing others out. Yay free market? Is there anything naturally "Republican" about having large amounts of land for (frequently still Democratic-leaning) cities to continue to sprawl into in red states, avoiding the crunch that hit the California cities that ran out of space earlier? Another way of phrasing it: people want to move to lower population density.
  - core-utility 5y ago
    As someone who moved out of California recently, no. Culture and politics had a large part to do with it.
    - mint2 5y ago
      Could make sense, as a native Californian I’m utterly baffled by Republican state policies like Texas and Florida and would want to move out, so I assume there are some who are the reverse of me.
- nemothekid 5y ago
  >Key takeaway for me: more people want to become republicans. Most people don't even vote. The most obvious thing I can see here is people are moving from high CoL areas to low CoL (which also tracks with the growth in remote work).
  - beerandt 5y ago
    Are you suggesting CoL has nothing to do with political policy? People might not want to admit to themselves that they want to be republicans, but they sure want to live wherever republican policy dominates.
    - nemothekid 5y ago
      >Are you suggesting CoL has nothing to do with political policy? When it comes to factors that affect CoL, both parties are pretty much bipartisan in their approach. >but they sure want to live wherever republican policy dominates. Because, historical, republican states have smaller cities, which mean less demand and lower CoL. Someone priced out of San Francisco isn’t going to find it cheaper to live in Phoenix than Chicago. As a result, prices are already shooting up and will probably do so until there is an equilibrium that follows a supply/demand curve.
- DinoDad13 5y ago
  That is a completely non-sensical take-a-way. So pretty typical for conservatives online.
- vmception 5y ago
  One party has physically more people than the other. A Republican migration can never change major and swing Democrat areas by voter numbers alone, whereas a Democrat migration can change a Republican area by voter numbers alone. Only a local partisan reality or influencing others can alter that, a Democrat migration can turn the entire country* Democrat if anyone coordinated, as only a few counties have to be swung just a little bit. I don't feel like this is a partisan observation, mathematically the opposite is not true like if you imagined a different nation that you didn't care with the same reality it is easy to notice that the opposition party does not have the numbers. *Not all local representatives, just electoral college for Presidency, the entire Senate, most of the House of Representatives.
  - coding123 5y ago
    If something coordinated like that happened, you would see actually people turn from blue to red because it happened. Balance will come naturally.
    - vmception 5y ago
      Right, I think there would only be once chance to do it as I also think states would raise their voter registration residency requirements. So it would require a SuperPAC to get people to move from Democratic areas to the select Republican and swing counties at once, or heavily helped by existing and pandemic net migration.
- jefurii 5y ago
  I think of the California cities in the "Top MSA Origin Cities (Moving From)" list as being more Republican-leaning. It could be California Republicans fleeing to red states.
- dc-programmer 5y ago
  Moving to Florida or Texas is great until you find yourself in a position where you need a competent, funded government to respond to a crisis that can only be solved through collective action (hurricane, power outages, pandemic). Plus living somewhere with lax environmental and consumer protections can have net negative long term consequences. Some states like Georgia don’t even have yearly car inspections, which goes about as well as you would think. It’s easy to just look at the LCOL and good weather, but you are giving up a lot of services and protections you took for granted living in a higher tax state. Maybe it’s worth it for some people, but it’s not for me
  - xfitm3 5y ago
    To the contrary: people are moving to FL or TX precisely because of the lack of government response. There are plenty of people who want to see that government intervention is kept to an absolute minimum.
    - dc-programmer 5y ago
      I don’t disagree with that analysis, but like I said different strokes for different folks. My personal view is government is the best tool we have to solve some collective problems such as natural disaster response(and the other more controversial ones like climate change and covid), but I realize that is anathema to the average techno-libertarian hackernews denizen. It’s probably a good thing people can self select into the society they want to live in by voting with their feet
  - mrkstu 5y ago
    As someone who lived through the recent Texas blackout, I would say the general competence of governance is fine here- that problem was notable by its relative rarity. Comparatively the continual problems w/resource management (water, power, wildfires) in California seem relatively horrific to this outsider.
    - mint2 5y ago
      The wild fire issue is only a thing due to a lack of regulations. Historically small and mega fires swept though all the California forests, often burning 4x the amount that’s burned in this historic fire year. Human intervention to stop those burns has created very unhealthy forests. Having houses in all these areas that burn is just a bad idea and a lot of hubris about the extent of our control over nature. Regulation to stop building in those area and enhance fire resistance of buildings is the solution, not more “freedom”. Housing developers have almost zero incentive to reduce their profit margin in order to fire proof the house or not build and thus not earn money. And water use isn’t a solved issue in other states. Either they happen to have a wetter climate or they aren’t any better. Power is a legitimate issue, but then I’d say California is actually doing pretty well because the climate change is a larger issue. Move fast and break things is better than doing nothing.
- poulsbohemian 5y ago
  Real estate agent in a red agrarian area turning purple... so every market is going to be different, but in my market it's coastal progressives moving inland for: 1) Weather 2) Cost of living: housing, property taxes 3) Quality of life: No commute, slower pace of life In the process there is a cultural and political struggle underway, and it's the newcomers supplanting the old ways. I've had a few prospective buyers call and say that they are escaping the godless/liberal coast and headed back to conservative small-town America, but I have yet to have a single one of those actually convert to becoming a buyer, FWIW. Point being, I foresee it not being about people wanting to become Republicans, and more a demographic shift where many traditional red areas are going to turn purple, if not blue.
- unanswered 5y ago
  No, they want to move to flourishing red states, but they don't want to change their own politics.
halfmatthalfcat 5y ago
It's sad to have seen such flight from Chicago. I'm from there originally and just moved back after a pretty long stint in NYC. Hoping the city can turn it around in the next couple of decades.
- toomuchtodo 5y ago
  Until the debt burden is worked out for Cook County and Chicago, I don't see much hope. The governor even supported a progressive income tax increase (promoting it with his own funds) to stem the bleeding and voters turned it down, so property taxes must rise as there currently is no mechanism to shed the enormous public service obligations that were incurred. https://blogs.uofi.uis.edu/view/8598/380899833 https://blogs.uofi.uis.edu/view/8598/380899833 (The Depth of Illinois Debt Problem and its Potential Consequences) (disclosure: fled the state)
  - beerandt 5y ago
    You don't think the murder rate and violent crime numbers have anything to do with it? Or any of the blatant political favoritism people saw with who still had rights under covid restrictions and who didn't? I think even people that used to be willing to risk it realized last year just where they stand in the eyes of the local politicians. Even if it wasn't enough to for them to leave, it definitely was enough to prevent new arrivals.
- milkytron 5y ago
  From my understanding, people are leaving Chicago and Illinois I'm general because of taxes and politics. Fixing that seems more difficult than moving.
  - OldHand2018 5y ago
    If by politics you mean the liberal lean, then yes - Republican voters are leaving Illinois. There are currently 13 Democratic reps and 5 Republican reps from Illinois. With the new census and redistricting, the state loses 1 seat. But it will be a Republican seat - 13 Democrats and 4 Republicans. Based on the limited census data we have, there is a small-to-mid possibility that it will become 14 Democrats and 3 Republicans in 2022. It will probably all be in the southern part of the state. I'd put it at even odds that in the northern part of the state, they redraw boundaries a little bit to shift some Republicans from Underwood (D) to Kinzinger (R) to increase the election odds for both. If you lean Republican, you might think politics are broken. If you lean Democratic, you might think politics are exactly right.
notJim 5y ago
If these inbound states don’t manage their growth well, they will have the exact same problems California does: unaffordable housing, and homelessness. There have been many articles the last year about well-heeled migrants driving housing shortages wherever they move to. America’s terrible approach to housing production outside of a few select places is a huge a drag on our country.
- temp8964 5y ago
  > America’s terrible approach to housing production outside of a few select places is a huge a drag on our country. Not sure about that. The local mechanism to prevent housing expansion is kind of counter-productive, but there may be a rational for that. No matter you agree with it or not, suburban residents seem to enjoy their way of life and don’t want to have massive crowds move into their towns.
  - closeparen 5y ago
    The New Urbanist architects have an interesting take on this. Suburban residents like their private way of life. Their houses, yards, garages, etc. But they’re not so much into the surrounding public realm. The stroads, the strip malls, the freeway interchanges, the parking lots. So the thought of any intensification or extension of all that, freaks them out. It presents a hope, at least, that suburbanites could be won over with qualitatively better implementations of density, relative to the same development pattern but bigger and more intense.
    - JohnWhigham 5y ago
      I don't bet on it happening in our lifetimes. Everyone alive now knows only the current suburban model, and people really don't like change with regards to zoning policy. Especially in Southern suburbs.
      - notJim 5y ago
        It's already happening. Not everywhere all at once, but it's happening. The idea that no American has ever experienced anything other than suburban housing is ludicrous.
runbathtime 5y ago
Does is show the flood of where all the illegals went?
5faulker 5y ago
As business operations move online and remote work become more widespread, this trend can be expected to continue in the upcoming years.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
dont__panic 5y ago
If vermont has 67% inward migration, why don't they show up on the "top inbound" list? I guess maybe these migration stats are using pure counts instead of percentages?
- nostromo 5y ago
  There's a note at the bottom saying they removed some small states. Idaho is also a small population state, but it's still 3x bigger than Vermont. However, I'm not sure why Arkansas is not highlighted as a top gainer. It has the same net migration numbers as South Carolina, and a larger population than Idaho.
- jimhefferon 5y ago
  I looked for VT (live there), but couldn't find it. Can I ask where it is?
  - mercyandgrace 5y ago
    You can't find VT on the map?
irrational 5y ago
Wow, that’s the most mobile unfriendly site I’ve ever seen.
anyonecancode 5y ago
Related: Where America’s developed areas are growing: ‘Way off into the horizon’[0] (Washington Post -- paywall, sorry, but posting as relevant to this thread) [0] https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/interactive/2021/land-development-urban-growth-maps/?itid=pr_hybrid_experimentrandom_with_top_mostshared_4_na-ans_4 https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/interactive/2021/land-...
colincooke 5y ago
It's nice to see North Carolina attracting people. I moved here in 2019 (from Ontario, Canada), and have been pleasently surprised at the quality of life, abundent nature, and half-decent housing prices (that last part may not last for long). My view of NC has changed from just another southern state that I wouldn't think much about, to a possible long term home. Of course like many states my experience is heavily biased by my location within the state (Research Triangle Park, Raleigh/Durham area). The only major downside so far has been that most of the tech jobs are concentrated in med-tech, advertising, or sales, however with Google/Apple coming to town hopefully that'll change.
- nine_zeros 5y ago
  No No ssshhh. Don't spoil it. NC is terrible. Stay away.
- TMWNN 5y ago
  This is a story familiar to every Canadian, and to many Australians and Britons: Mid-career executive accepts job offer in the US in Charlotte, Dallas, Phoenix, Atlanta, Oklahoma City, or Tampa. Is excited about the opportunity and the raise in salary, and curious about living in a different country, but a little nervous about moving to a "right wing Republican" state "without healthcare". A few months in, the reports back to friends and family change. More and more mention of the "amazing" house they found in the suburbs with an outdoor pool (!) that is so much less expensive than in Toronto or Vancouver, the "fantastic" school the kids attend with sports teams and cheerleading and other afterschool activities, and—especially—how unbelievably cheap everything is at the supermarket, mall, and gas station. That family is never moving back to Canada. This happens over and over again.
  - izend 5y ago
    Very true, I believe this is why our Federal gov is aiming for 400k new immigrants per year, they know there is a large brain drain south.
    - 908B64B197 5y ago
tysonbr 5y ago
Did anyone else notice the Arkansas numbers. Huge net migration in over the years? Seems interesting.
Sikul 5y ago
Kind of weird that California is tied for 3rd on the list but they make it a point to say people are "fleeing" California before mentioning the other top 3.
- frankbreetz 5y ago
  I terms of total number of people leaving the state, I would expect California to be first
  - InitialLastName 5y ago
    For the most part, in any statistic involving "Total number of people doing X" California is likely to be first. I don't see hard numbers anywhere, but assuming that the total migration numbers are within spitting distance of proportional to the population, California would also be, if not leading the list, close to the top in terms of total people entering the state as well.
    - frankbreetz 5y ago
      I agree, that is my assumption about why most people talk about the California migration. They are most likely to personally know someone who has migrated out of California(no tech people). I am from Ohio and can think of 5 people off-hand who left California and live here now. I can't think of another state with more than 2 people exiting. Maybe I am biased because of what I read online.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- nostromo 5y ago
  People have been leaving Illinois and New York for several years now, so it's probably less surprising than California's more recent stagnation and potential decline.
binarymax 5y ago
Can someone elaborate on what the percentages mean? I know I'm reading it wrong, and I can't figure out what the magnitudes are.
- wskinner 5y ago
  I believe they are the percentage of moves originating in the state where the destination is in the same state or in a different state.
  - binarymax 5y ago
    Thanks. This report then is mostly meaningless. If 2000 people moved for one state compared to 50000 for another state, and the percentages are close - how would I know that? I want to see number of people moving in and out. That's good information. Percentages without magnitude are just confusing noise.
    - hackeraccount 5y ago
      But as somebody upthread already said, a raw number will just say California has the most people moving out and probably also the most people moving in because they're the biggest state.
rhacker 5y ago
If I'm sitting on a 800K+ property that is essentially equivalent to a 350K property somewhere that ALSO has a Chipotle and less traffic, why not move? Of course the problem becomes within a few years: I'm sitting on a 550K property and the traffic sucks (again). I'll move somewhere and start a Chipotle. Cycle continues.
cgsmith 5y ago
I wonder how this compares too births, deaths, college graduates... etc

73 points by maxwell 5y ago

Key takeaway for me: more people want to become republicans. It's not just high population to low population, because Florida as an example.

core-utility 5y ago
Or at a very minimum, they like the policies red states bring in comparison (low property tax, occasional lack of income tax, lower cost of living). That is, until those moving in vote those policies out.
bluedino 5y ago
The economy in Florida (and Texas) is great. Lots of money there right now. I had a friend move from Ohio to Florida, he has 4 times the customers down there and they all spend more.
- op00to 5y ago
  I wonder where all that money is coming from. Oh yeah, resource extraction.
  - mateo411 5y ago
    What are the resource extraction industries of Florida?
    - tk75x 5y ago
      Disney, Universal, cruise lines...? If the resource is tourist cash.
      - mateo411 5y ago
        Tourism is usually considered part of the service industry and not resource extraction. Resource extraction is more like mining, timber, and extracting other raw materials from the earth.
    - op00to 5y ago
      Oil drilling, mining, the usual.
  - nostromo 5y ago
    The current boom in the US is from money printing, and it's nation-wide.
    - beerandt 5y ago
      But people in places with fewer covid restrictions have a much better ability to spend it, and have been. Eg, beach condos are getting 3-4x normal prices this summer and are still sold out.
  - tastyfreeze 5y ago
    Less taxes means more pocket money.
- the_only_law 5y ago
  Texas I get, but I still don’t get the appeal of Florida. The job market feels terrible for a population this size. I’d sooner go back to GA or NC. It’s also hot as shit, and this is from someone who’s lived their entire life in the south.
  - rs999gti 5y ago
    > appeal of Florida No state income tax, warm weather, as much pro sports as CA or TX, and beaches on three sides
nostromo 5y ago
The old joke though is that people will leave a poorly-run state, but bring their norms and voting patterns with them.
- tamaharbor 5y ago
  Unfortunately that is probably not a joke.
axaxs 5y ago
Not sure they want to become Republican, as much as they just want to live in a Republican area because, generally, taxes and crime are lower. However, I don't think most ever make the connection in their head as to why that is. but yeah, you can just draw down arrows from NY and PA to FL. They're so pervasive there's a joke about their license plates... blue and yella will kill a fella. A play on the snake idiom, because of their awful driving.
- iluvcommunism 5y ago
  I’ve noticed that. Living in Virginia I see the folks going north and south on the 95, and almost always without exception the PA drivers are tailgating, passing, going 20 above the speed limit.
  - axaxs 5y ago
    Definitely. If I had to generalize license plate behavior based on my experience here - NJ - Drive like they're in NYC, no turn signals, will try to merge/squeeze into 3 inches of space. NY - Must not have lane rules, they just sit in the left lane regardless of speed. PA - Highly aggressive and dangerous. Will tailgate you, will brake check you, will drive 30 over and punish you if you happen to block their path. FL - Wildcard. Everyone is from one of the above, so who knows which you'll be dealing with.
  - coding123 5y ago
    In NorCal on the 5 you might also see a fully tinted purple low riding car every few weeks (I'm talking about a specific vehicle I see because I drive it all the time) with Washington plates that drives like a bat out of hell. Not that native CA drivers are much better, but they are.
ramoz 5y ago
Skeptical. Possibly more like *more people want to live in republican-built societies and economies... without any intent on changing their emotional/mental model of their politics.
- toomuchtodo 5y ago
  Sort of. Housing in the Sunbelt is cheaper because there is more land/supply, and if there are jobs there, your dollar goes further. Of course people will bring their own politics with to a more favorable economic environment, some of which is not because of politics but because of localized economic conditions. If Texas and Florida housing is cheap, it's not necessarily because of Republicans. Texas has, comparatively, some pretty high property taxes for example. Sure, wages have been held down by business friendly conservative politics, but with remote work becoming more common, your wage isn't tied to the politics of where you live. (my note: Texas, Florida, and North Carolina will eventually tilt more progressive from young folks born or who move there, and as older conservatives "age out" at a rate of about 1.8 million people/year [1]) [1] https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/09/american-migration-patterns-should-terrify-gop/598153/ https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/09/american-m...
  - imtringued 5y ago
    Taxing property is much fairer than taxing income. If you want to pay less tax move to a cheaper community rather than a community that charges less taxes. It also stops speculation because the property becomes an obligation that has to be taken care of.
- dfxm12 5y ago
  Taking Florida as an example, older people move there to escape the cold and death tax. I guess keeping wealth in your family and not having to work for it is a keystone of a Republican-built society & economy.
istorical 5y ago
that's a strange takeaway to make without evidence. alternate hypotheses: remote work enabled more people to earn a high salary typically found in a large city or coastal area while moving to lower cost of living areas. also, people who lost their work in industries heavily impacted by quarantine (hospitality, food, restaurant, retail) moved back home or in with family to save money.
- core-utility 5y ago
  I admittedly haven't seen numbers on how many jobs have moved permanently remote, but anecdotally I don't see "former in-office, now permanently remote" jobs as any large percentage of these moves. I believe a large number are retirees or those who found new employment in a new state.
whalesalad 5y ago
More like: most people want to live and let live. The majority does not want to be in either party, they do not want a divide.
- beerandt 5y ago
  Most people think they are "live and let live", but very few really are.
notJim 5y ago
They’re just moving to places that aren’t expensive yet.
- axaxs 5y ago
  Not on the whole. FL is much more expensive than PA.
- beerandt 5y ago
  I keep seeing this. Do that many dems really believe that their policies don't significantly result in an increased cost of living? I thought this was a compromise dems knowingly and willingly made, but it seems lots of people don't want to admit low cost of living has anything to do with being a red state.
ryandvm 5y ago
I dunno. Most of these people probably aren't moving to the deeply red, shithole regions of these states. They're moving to the suburbs of purple areas like Charlotte or Charleston. I've long thought that living in a blue city in a red state provides a pretty good balance.
- dfxm12 5y ago
  A good balance of what?
  - hackeraccount 5y ago
    Low taxes and a semblance of culture. :-)
    - rs999gti 5y ago
      Keep Austin weird man
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paxys 5y ago
People want to move to cheaper states (mostly to be able to buy property). I doubt political affiliations have anything to do with it. In fact if we dig one level deeper I'm willing to bet most of these moves are happening to liberal enclaves in republican states (e.g. Austin, Texas).
- xfitm3 5y ago
  I absolutely left California due to politics, and I will never return because of it. The bay area is full of batshit crazy whackos.
- tdfx 5y ago
  I know people who moved from Austin to southern California and moved back within a year due to their surprise at the how far left California society is in general. Austin is fairly left-leaning but "extreme left" in Austin is still fairly "middle of the road" in California.
- beerandt 5y ago
  >People want to move to cheaper states (mostly to be able to buy property). I doubt political affiliations have anything to do with it. This is such a crazy disconnect, though. They might not want to move to a "red state", but they "just happen" to like the ultimate result of red state policy. >In fact if we dig one level deeper I'm willing to bet most of these moves are happening to liberal enclaves in republican states. Sure, because they put more stock in maintaining their political self-identity and label than they do in accepting the fact that they might actually prefer living in a place that's the result of red state politics. Even if that's liberal enclave. It's a form of self-denial.
majormajor 5y ago
When it comes to CA, The only reason people "want" to move from more expensive to cheaper places is price alone, not any other characteristics - supply and demand doesn't work like that. More expensive = more demand. People can't afford to live in expensive places the way they'd like to. What's cute most years in CA (I haven't seen Covid-data, which probably changes things) is that net migration among people making >100K is positive. So wealthy people are pushing others out. Yay free market? Is there anything naturally "Republican" about having large amounts of land for (frequently still Democratic-leaning) cities to continue to sprawl into in red states, avoiding the crunch that hit the California cities that ran out of space earlier? Another way of phrasing it: people want to move to lower population density.
- core-utility 5y ago
  As someone who moved out of California recently, no. Culture and politics had a large part to do with it.
  - mint2 5y ago
    Could make sense, as a native Californian I’m utterly baffled by Republican state policies like Texas and Florida and would want to move out, so I assume there are some who are the reverse of me.
nemothekid 5y ago
>Key takeaway for me: more people want to become republicans. Most people don't even vote. The most obvious thing I can see here is people are moving from high CoL areas to low CoL (which also tracks with the growth in remote work).
- beerandt 5y ago
  Are you suggesting CoL has nothing to do with political policy? People might not want to admit to themselves that they want to be republicans, but they sure want to live wherever republican policy dominates.
  - nemothekid 5y ago
    >Are you suggesting CoL has nothing to do with political policy? When it comes to factors that affect CoL, both parties are pretty much bipartisan in their approach. >but they sure want to live wherever republican policy dominates. Because, historical, republican states have smaller cities, which mean less demand and lower CoL. Someone priced out of San Francisco isn’t going to find it cheaper to live in Phoenix than Chicago. As a result, prices are already shooting up and will probably do so until there is an equilibrium that follows a supply/demand curve.
DinoDad13 5y ago
That is a completely non-sensical take-a-way. So pretty typical for conservatives online.
vmception 5y ago
One party has physically more people than the other. A Republican migration can never change major and swing Democrat areas by voter numbers alone, whereas a Democrat migration can change a Republican area by voter numbers alone. Only a local partisan reality or influencing others can alter that, a Democrat migration can turn the entire country* Democrat if anyone coordinated, as only a few counties have to be swung just a little bit. I don't feel like this is a partisan observation, mathematically the opposite is not true like if you imagined a different nation that you didn't care with the same reality it is easy to notice that the opposition party does not have the numbers. *Not all local representatives, just electoral college for Presidency, the entire Senate, most of the House of Representatives.
- coding123 5y ago
  If something coordinated like that happened, you would see actually people turn from blue to red because it happened. Balance will come naturally.
  - vmception 5y ago
    Right, I think there would only be once chance to do it as I also think states would raise their voter registration residency requirements. So it would require a SuperPAC to get people to move from Democratic areas to the select Republican and swing counties at once, or heavily helped by existing and pandemic net migration.
jefurii 5y ago
I think of the California cities in the "Top MSA Origin Cities (Moving From)" list as being more Republican-leaning. It could be California Republicans fleeing to red states.
dc-programmer 5y ago
Moving to Florida or Texas is great until you find yourself in a position where you need a competent, funded government to respond to a crisis that can only be solved through collective action (hurricane, power outages, pandemic). Plus living somewhere with lax environmental and consumer protections can have net negative long term consequences. Some states like Georgia don’t even have yearly car inspections, which goes about as well as you would think. It’s easy to just look at the LCOL and good weather, but you are giving up a lot of services and protections you took for granted living in a higher tax state. Maybe it’s worth it for some people, but it’s not for me
- xfitm3 5y ago
  To the contrary: people are moving to FL or TX precisely because of the lack of government response. There are plenty of people who want to see that government intervention is kept to an absolute minimum.
  - dc-programmer 5y ago
    I don’t disagree with that analysis, but like I said different strokes for different folks. My personal view is government is the best tool we have to solve some collective problems such as natural disaster response(and the other more controversial ones like climate change and covid), but I realize that is anathema to the average techno-libertarian hackernews denizen. It’s probably a good thing people can self select into the society they want to live in by voting with their feet
- mrkstu 5y ago
  As someone who lived through the recent Texas blackout, I would say the general competence of governance is fine here- that problem was notable by its relative rarity. Comparatively the continual problems w/resource management (water, power, wildfires) in California seem relatively horrific to this outsider.
  - mint2 5y ago
    The wild fire issue is only a thing due to a lack of regulations. Historically small and mega fires swept though all the California forests, often burning 4x the amount that’s burned in this historic fire year. Human intervention to stop those burns has created very unhealthy forests. Having houses in all these areas that burn is just a bad idea and a lot of hubris about the extent of our control over nature. Regulation to stop building in those area and enhance fire resistance of buildings is the solution, not more “freedom”. Housing developers have almost zero incentive to reduce their profit margin in order to fire proof the house or not build and thus not earn money. And water use isn’t a solved issue in other states. Either they happen to have a wetter climate or they aren’t any better. Power is a legitimate issue, but then I’d say California is actually doing pretty well because the climate change is a larger issue. Move fast and break things is better than doing nothing.
poulsbohemian 5y ago
Real estate agent in a red agrarian area turning purple... so every market is going to be different, but in my market it's coastal progressives moving inland for: 1) Weather 2) Cost of living: housing, property taxes 3) Quality of life: No commute, slower pace of life In the process there is a cultural and political struggle underway, and it's the newcomers supplanting the old ways. I've had a few prospective buyers call and say that they are escaping the godless/liberal coast and headed back to conservative small-town America, but I have yet to have a single one of those actually convert to becoming a buyer, FWIW. Point being, I foresee it not being about people wanting to become Republicans, and more a demographic shift where many traditional red areas are going to turn purple, if not blue.
unanswered 5y ago
No, they want to move to flourishing red states, but they don't want to change their own politics.

halfmatthalfcat 5y ago

It's sad to have seen such flight from Chicago. I'm from there originally and just moved back after a pretty long stint in NYC. Hoping the city can turn it around in the next couple of decades.

toomuchtodo 5y ago
Until the debt burden is worked out for Cook County and Chicago, I don't see much hope. The governor even supported a progressive income tax increase (promoting it with his own funds) to stem the bleeding and voters turned it down, so property taxes must rise as there currently is no mechanism to shed the enormous public service obligations that were incurred. https://blogs.uofi.uis.edu/view/8598/380899833 https://blogs.uofi.uis.edu/view/8598/380899833 (The Depth of Illinois Debt Problem and its Potential Consequences) (disclosure: fled the state)
- beerandt 5y ago
  You don't think the murder rate and violent crime numbers have anything to do with it? Or any of the blatant political favoritism people saw with who still had rights under covid restrictions and who didn't? I think even people that used to be willing to risk it realized last year just where they stand in the eyes of the local politicians. Even if it wasn't enough to for them to leave, it definitely was enough to prevent new arrivals.
milkytron 5y ago
From my understanding, people are leaving Chicago and Illinois I'm general because of taxes and politics. Fixing that seems more difficult than moving.
- OldHand2018 5y ago
  If by politics you mean the liberal lean, then yes - Republican voters are leaving Illinois. There are currently 13 Democratic reps and 5 Republican reps from Illinois. With the new census and redistricting, the state loses 1 seat. But it will be a Republican seat - 13 Democrats and 4 Republicans. Based on the limited census data we have, there is a small-to-mid possibility that it will become 14 Democrats and 3 Republicans in 2022. It will probably all be in the southern part of the state. I'd put it at even odds that in the northern part of the state, they redraw boundaries a little bit to shift some Republicans from Underwood (D) to Kinzinger (R) to increase the election odds for both. If you lean Republican, you might think politics are broken. If you lean Democratic, you might think politics are exactly right.

notJim 5y ago

If these inbound states don’t manage their growth well, they will have the exact same problems California does: unaffordable housing, and homelessness. There have been many articles the last year about well-heeled migrants driving housing shortages wherever they move to. America’s terrible approach to housing production outside of a few select places is a huge a drag on our country.

temp8964 5y ago
> America’s terrible approach to housing production outside of a few select places is a huge a drag on our country. Not sure about that. The local mechanism to prevent housing expansion is kind of counter-productive, but there may be a rational for that. No matter you agree with it or not, suburban residents seem to enjoy their way of life and don’t want to have massive crowds move into their towns.
- closeparen 5y ago
  The New Urbanist architects have an interesting take on this. Suburban residents like their private way of life. Their houses, yards, garages, etc. But they’re not so much into the surrounding public realm. The stroads, the strip malls, the freeway interchanges, the parking lots. So the thought of any intensification or extension of all that, freaks them out. It presents a hope, at least, that suburbanites could be won over with qualitatively better implementations of density, relative to the same development pattern but bigger and more intense.
  - JohnWhigham 5y ago
    I don't bet on it happening in our lifetimes. Everyone alive now knows only the current suburban model, and people really don't like change with regards to zoning policy. Especially in Southern suburbs.
    - notJim 5y ago
      It's already happening. Not everywhere all at once, but it's happening. The idea that no American has ever experienced anything other than suburban housing is ludicrous.

runbathtime 5y ago

Does is show the flood of where all the illegals went?

5faulker 5y ago

As business operations move online and remote work become more widespread, this trend can be expected to continue in the upcoming years.

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dont__panic 5y ago

If vermont has 67% inward migration, why don't they show up on the "top inbound" list? I guess maybe these migration stats are using pure counts instead of percentages?

nostromo 5y ago
There's a note at the bottom saying they removed some small states. Idaho is also a small population state, but it's still 3x bigger than Vermont. However, I'm not sure why Arkansas is not highlighted as a top gainer. It has the same net migration numbers as South Carolina, and a larger population than Idaho.
jimhefferon 5y ago
I looked for VT (live there), but couldn't find it. Can I ask where it is?
- mercyandgrace 5y ago
  You can't find VT on the map?

irrational 5y ago

Wow, that’s the most mobile unfriendly site I’ve ever seen.

anyonecancode 5y ago

Related: Where America’s developed areas are growing: ‘Way off into the horizon’[0] (Washington Post -- paywall, sorry, but posting as relevant to this thread) [0] https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/interactive/2021/land-development-urban-growth-maps/?itid=pr_hybrid_experimentrandom_with_top_mostshared_4_na-ans_4 https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/interactive/2021/land-...

colincooke 5y ago

It's nice to see North Carolina attracting people. I moved here in 2019 (from Ontario, Canada), and have been pleasently surprised at the quality of life, abundent nature, and half-decent housing prices (that last part may not last for long). My view of NC has changed from just another southern state that I wouldn't think much about, to a possible long term home. Of course like many states my experience is heavily biased by my location within the state (Research Triangle Park, Raleigh/Durham area). The only major downside so far has been that most of the tech jobs are concentrated in med-tech, advertising, or sales, however with Google/Apple coming to town hopefully that'll change.

nine_zeros 5y ago
No No ssshhh. Don't spoil it. NC is terrible. Stay away.
TMWNN 5y ago
This is a story familiar to every Canadian, and to many Australians and Britons: Mid-career executive accepts job offer in the US in Charlotte, Dallas, Phoenix, Atlanta, Oklahoma City, or Tampa. Is excited about the opportunity and the raise in salary, and curious about living in a different country, but a little nervous about moving to a "right wing Republican" state "without healthcare". A few months in, the reports back to friends and family change. More and more mention of the "amazing" house they found in the suburbs with an outdoor pool (!) that is so much less expensive than in Toronto or Vancouver, the "fantastic" school the kids attend with sports teams and cheerleading and other afterschool activities, and—especially—how unbelievably cheap everything is at the supermarket, mall, and gas station. That family is never moving back to Canada. This happens over and over again.
- izend 5y ago
  Very true, I believe this is why our Federal gov is aiming for 400k new immigrants per year, they know there is a large brain drain south.
  - 908B64B197 5y ago

tysonbr 5y ago

Did anyone else notice the Arkansas numbers. Huge net migration in over the years? Seems interesting.

Sikul 5y ago

Kind of weird that California is tied for 3rd on the list but they make it a point to say people are "fleeing" California before mentioning the other top 3.

frankbreetz 5y ago
I terms of total number of people leaving the state, I would expect California to be first
- InitialLastName 5y ago
  For the most part, in any statistic involving "Total number of people doing X" California is likely to be first. I don't see hard numbers anywhere, but assuming that the total migration numbers are within spitting distance of proportional to the population, California would also be, if not leading the list, close to the top in terms of total people entering the state as well.
  - frankbreetz 5y ago
    I agree, that is my assumption about why most people talk about the California migration. They are most likely to personally know someone who has migrated out of California(no tech people). I am from Ohio and can think of 5 people off-hand who left California and live here now. I can't think of another state with more than 2 people exiting. Maybe I am biased because of what I read online.
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nostromo 5y ago
People have been leaving Illinois and New York for several years now, so it's probably less surprising than California's more recent stagnation and potential decline.

binarymax 5y ago

Can someone elaborate on what the percentages mean? I know I'm reading it wrong, and I can't figure out what the magnitudes are.

wskinner 5y ago
I believe they are the percentage of moves originating in the state where the destination is in the same state or in a different state.
- binarymax 5y ago
  Thanks. This report then is mostly meaningless. If 2000 people moved for one state compared to 50000 for another state, and the percentages are close - how would I know that? I want to see number of people moving in and out. That's good information. Percentages without magnitude are just confusing noise.
  - hackeraccount 5y ago
    But as somebody upthread already said, a raw number will just say California has the most people moving out and probably also the most people moving in because they're the biggest state.

rhacker 5y ago

If I'm sitting on a 800K+ property that is essentially equivalent to a 350K property somewhere that ALSO has a Chipotle and less traffic, why not move? Of course the problem becomes within a few years: I'm sitting on a 550K property and the traffic sucks (again). I'll move somewhere and start a Chipotle. Cycle continues.

cgsmith 5y ago

I wonder how this compares too births, deaths, college graduates... etc